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What are 1st round picks really worth? (Beta)

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08-26-2010, 09:27 PM
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Voodoo Child
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What are 1st round picks really worth? (Beta)

Fellow Leafs fans: This is just a beta version of this thread before I plan to post it on the main boards. I myself wanted to know how valuable 1st rounders really were and I found out. Next time someone says Kulemin isn't worth a mid 1st, link to this post.

Hey gang...we sure seem to love our picks here. I always hear 'always keep your firsts', and 'Milan Lucic is currently only worth a mid-first!' thrown around here, so over the last few weeks I've done a little bit of research to see if we can truly define how valuable a first round pick really is.

What I'm about to show you may shock you.

First, some clarification; this is the entire first round since 2000 to 2008. Why not include 2009? Because I want to give the kids a bit more of a chance to see what they can do. Even most of the late first round 2008 is still unproven, but for the sake of posterity (I can't include Stamkos, Schenn and Doughty but not them) they're in.

Second, you'll notice numbers beside each pick.

1) = 2000 NHL Entry Draft
...
...
9) = 2008 NHL Entry Draft

You get the broken picture.

Thirdly, I've included the major awards won by each pick in a collective; you'll notice I don't include things like Cups or Olympic Gold or Jennings' Trophies for goalies. These are team awards, not individual awards. Playoff points are not included in the totals.

And finally some definitions are in order;

Superstars Are players capable of getting upwards of 90 points (or 50 goals) per season; no potential here, just players who have done it (think Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Stamkos, Backstrom). For defenseman, these are the guys over 50 points while playing rock-solid, Norris-caliber D (Doughty, Green).

Stars Are players between 75 and 90 points per year, think guys like Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards and Rick Nash.

First Liners are guys who put up over 50 points a season. Kessel, Horton, Weiss, etc etc...

Most of the goalies selected high will be called first-liners, as (with two exceptions) there are no Star goalies; just first-liners (starters) a few that are servicable and a ton of busts...DO NOT draft a goalie in the first round!

Servicable Players are guys who put up between 30 and 50 points a season. Guys who are key to the team, but not guys you want on the first line (Wheeler, Pouliot, Lupul).

Busts...are players that either never played, failed to live up to a high billing or only played a handful of games before returning to Europe or some such thing. Guys like Svitov, Montoya and Picard are busts.

(Note: I do not consider Rick DiPietro a bust...just a very unfortunate individual with an even more unfortunate contract. Were he healthy he'd be a starter in this league.)

I put a percentage chance of landing these certain players, but bear in mind the trends aren't static; they just reflect the 2000-2008 drafts.

Statistics are in a basic GP-G-A-P format, with GP-W-L-T for goalies.

I'm also well aware that many of these players (basically the 2006 draft and onwards) still have a shot at developing. I'm not going to call a guy like Thomas Hickey a bust based on not making them jump yet, but I'm not calling him a first-liner based on his overall potential either.

So here's the data, here we go, enjoy the ride!

~VC

1st overall

1) Rick DiPietro (G) - 281-119-117-29
2) Ilya Kovalchuk - 621-338-304-642
3) Rick Nash - 517-227-195-422
4) Marc-Andre Fleury (G) - 302-148-106-30
5) Alex Ovechkin - 396-269-260-529
6) Sidney Crosby - 371-183-323-506
7) Erik Johnson - 158-15-57-72
8) Patrick Kane - 244-74-154-230
9) Steven Stamkos - 161-74-67-141

Best 1st Overall 2000-2008: Sidney Crosby
Worst 1st Overall 2000-2008: Rick DiPietro
Major Awards: Rocket Richard Trophy (x6), Calder Memorial Trophy (x2), Art Ross Trophy (x2), Pearson/Lindsay Trophy (x4), Hart Trophy (x3)

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: 44.4
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 22.2
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 22.2
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 11.1
% chance of this pick busting: Nearly 0

2nd overall

1) Dany Heatley - 589-299-326-625
2) Jason Spezza - 464-171-304-475
3) Kari Lehtonen (G) - 216-100-87-17
4) Eric Staal - 479-193-235-428
5) Evgeni Malkin - 309-143-238-381
6) Bobby Ryan - 168-71-60-131
7) Jordan Staal - 327-84-84-168
8) James vanRiemsdyk - 78-15-20-35
9) Drew Doughty - 163-22-64-86

Best 2nd Overall 2000-2008: Evgeni Malkin
Worst 2nd Overall 2000-2008: Kari Lehtonen
Major Awards: Conn Smythe Trophy, Calder Memorial Trophy (x2), Art Ross Trophy (x1)

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: 33.3
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 22.2
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 22.2
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 22.2
% chance of this pick busting: Nearly 0

3rd overall

1) Marian Gaborik - 578-261-262-523
2) Alexandr Svitov - 179-13-24-37
3) Jay Bouwmeester - 553-56-176-232
4) Nathan Horton - 422-142-153-295
5) Cam Barker - 219-18-69-87
6) Jack Johnson - 200-17-41-58
7) Jon Toews - 222-83-108-191
8) Kyle Turris - 66-8-13-21
9) Zach Bogosian - 128-19-23-42

Best 3rd Overall 2000-2008: Jon Toews/Marian Gaborik
Worst 3rd Overall 2000-2008: Alexandr Svitov
Major Awards: Conn Smythe Trophy

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 44.4
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 22.2
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

4th overall

1) Rostislav Klesla - 470-38-85-123
2) Stephen Weiss - 481-103-181-284
3) Joni Pitkanen - 411-46-175-221
4) Nikolai Zherdev - 369-99-140-239
5) Andrew Ladd - 321-63-86-149
6) Benoit Pouliot - 104-24-18-42
7) Niklas Backstrom - 246-69-189-258
8) Thomas Hickey - 0-0-0-0
9) Alex Pietrangelo - 17-1-2-3

Best 4th Overall 2000-2008: Nicklas Backstrom
Worst 4th Overall 2000-2008: Benoit Pouliot (so far)
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 22.2
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 66.6
% chance of this pick busting: Nearly 0

5th overall

1) Raffi Torres - 432-98-84-182
2) Stanislav Chistov - 196-19-42-61
3) Ryan Whitney - 354-41-158-199
4) Thomas Vanek - 389-172-141-313
5) Blake Wheeler - 163-39-44-83
6) Carey Price (G) - 134-60-48-18
7) Phil Kessel - 292-96-85-181
8) Karl Alzner - 51-1-9-10
9) Luke Schenn - 149-7-24-31

Best 5th Overall 2000-2008: Thomas Vanek
Worst 5th Overall 2000-2008: Stanislav Chistov
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 22.2
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 66.6
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

6th overall

1) Scott Hartnell - 679-161-197-358
2) Mikko Koivu - 362-79-176-255
3) Scottie Upshall - 279-64-74-138
4) Milan Michalek - 383-113-135-248
5) Al Montoya (G) - 5-3-1-0
6) Gilbert Brule - 222-31-41-72
7) Derick Brassard - 127-20-43-63
8) Sam Gagner - 223-44-87-131
9) Nikita Filatov - 21-6-0-6

Best 6th Overall 2000-2008: Mikko Koivu
Worst 6th Overall 2000-2008: Al Montoya
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 22.2
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 55.5
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

7th overall

1) Lars Jonsson - 8-0-2-2
2) Mike Komisarek - 395-12-50-62
3) Joffrey Lupul - 395-112-113-225
4) Ryan Suter - 393-27-126-153
5) Rostislav Olesz - 305-51-64-115
6) Jack Skille - 30-5-3-8
7) Kyle Okposo - 154-39-57-96
8) Jakub Voracek - 161-25-63-88
9) Colin Wilson - 35-8-7-15

Best 7th Overall 2000-2008: Ryan Suter
Worst 7th Overall 2000-2008: Lars Jonsson
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 44.4
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 33.3
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

8th overall

1) Nikita Alexeev - 159-20-17-37
2) Pascal Leclaire (G) - 159-57-69-14
3) Pierre-Marc Bouchard - 426-77-190-267
4) Braydon Coburn - 297-24-71-95
5) Alexandre Picard - 67-0-2-2
6) Devin Setoguchi - 195-62-56-118
7) Peter Mueller - 222-48-79-127
8) Zach Hamill - 0-0-0-0
9) Mikkel Boedker - 92-12-19-31

Best 8th Overall 2000-2008: Devin Setoguchi
Worst 8th Overall 2000-2008: Alexandre Picard
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 33.3
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 33.3
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

9th overall

1) Brent Krahn (G) - 1-0-0-0
2) Tuomo Ruutu - 378-92-116-208
3) Petr Taticek - 3-0-0-0
4) Dion Phaneuf - 404-77-161-238
5) Ladislav Smid - 253-4-30-34
6) Brian Lee - 82-4-13-17
7) James Sheppard - 224-11-38-49
8) Logan Couture - 0-0-0-0
9) Josh Bailey - 141-23-37-60

Best 9th Overall 2000-2008: Dion Phaneuf
Worst 9th Overall 2000-2008: Brent Krahn
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 11.1
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 33.3
% chance of this pick busting: 44.4

10th overall

1) Mikhail Yabukov - 53-2-10-12
2) Dan Blackburn (G) - 63-20-32-4
3) Eric Nystrom - 204-19-20-39
4) Andrei Kostitsyn - 245-67-64-141
5) Boris Valabik - 80-0-7-7
6) Luc Bourdon - [RIP]
7) Michael Frolik - 161-42-46-88
8) Keaton Ellerby - 0-0-0-0
9) Cody Hodgson - 0-0-0-0

Best 10th Overall 2000-2008: Andrei Kostitsyn
Worst 10th Overall 2000-2008: Dan Blakcburn
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 22.2
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 44.4
% chance of this pick busting: 33.3

11th overall

1) Pavel Vorobiev - 57-10-15-25
2) Fredrik Sjostrom - 423-44-55-99
3) Keith Ballard - 397-33-116-149
4) Jeff Carter - 381-142-132-277
5) Lauri Tukonen - 5-0-0-0
6) Anze Kopitar - 318-113-175-285
7) Jonathan Bernier (G) - 7-4-3-0
8) Brandon Sutter - 122-22-24-46
9) Kyle Beach - 0-0-0-0

Best 11th overall 2000-2008: Anze Kopitar
Worst 11th overall 2000-2008 Lauri Tukonen
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 22.2
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 33.3
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 22.2
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

12th overall

1) Alex Smirnov - 52-3-3-6
2) Dan Hamhuis - 483-32-129-161
3) Steve Eminger - 346-15-70-85
4) Hugh Jessiman - 0-0-0-0
5) A.J. Thelen - 0-0-0-0
6) Marc Staal - 244-13-39-52
7) Bryan Little - 206-50-51-101
8) Ryan McDonagh - 0-0-0-0
9) Tyler Myers - 82-11-37-48

Best 12th overall 2000-2008: Tyler Myers
Worst 12th overall 2000-2008 Hugh Jessiman
Major Awards: Calder Memorial Trophy

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 33.3
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 11.1
% chance of this pick busting: 44.4

13th overall

1) Ron Hainsey - 406-31-119-150
2) Ales Hemsky - 443-100-253-353
3) Alexander Semin - 327-148-152-300
4) Dustin Brown - 431-113-135-248
5) Drew Stafford - 255-63-81-144
6) Marek Zagrapan - 0-0-0-0
7) Jiri Tlusty - 92-11-15-26
8) Lars Eller - 7-2-0-2
9) Colten Teubert - 0-0-0-0

Best 13th overall 2000-2008: Alexander Semin
Worst 13th overall 2000-2008 Marek Zagrapan
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 22.2
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 11.1
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 55.5
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

14th overall

1) Vaclav Nedorost - 99-10-10-20
2) Chuck Kobasew - 410-87-82-169
3) Chris Higgins - 349-92-76-178
4) Brent Seabrook - 392-30-114-144
5) Devan Dubnyk (G) - 19-4-10-2
6) Sasha Pokulok - 0-0-0-0
7) Michael Grabner - 20-5-6-11
8) Kevin Shattenkirk - 0-0-0-0
9) Zach Boychuk - 33-3-6-9

Best 14th overall 2000-2008: Brent Seabrook
Worst 14th overall 2000-2008 Sasha Pokulok
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 66.6
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

15th overall

1) Artem Kryukov - 0-0-0-0
2) Igor Knyazev - 0-0-0-0
3) Jesse Niinimaki - 0-0-0-0
4) Robert Nilsson - 252-37-81-118
5) Alexander Radulov - 145-44-51-95
6) Ryan O'Marra - 3-0-1-1
7) Riku Helenius - 1-0-0-0
8) Alex Plante - 4-0-1-1
9) Erik Karlsson - 60-5-21-26

Best 15th overall 2000-2008: Alexander Radulov
Worst 15th overall 2000-2008 Artem Kryukov
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 22.2
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 22.2
% chance of this pick busting: 55.5

16th overall

1) Marcel Hossa - 237-31-30-61
2) R.J. Umberger - 392-98-119-217
3) Jakub Klepis - 66-4-10-14
4) Steve Bernier - 317-71-73-144
5) Petteri Nokelainen - 189-17-17-34
6) Alex Bourret - 0-0-0-0
7) Ty Wishart - 5-0-1-1
8) Colton Gillies - 45-2-5-7
9) Joe Colborne - 0-0-0-0

Best 16th overall 2000-2008: R.J. Umberger
Worst 16th overall 2000-2008 Alex Bourret
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 22.2
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 55.5
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

17th overall

1) Alexei Mikhnov - 2-0-0-0
2) Carlo Colaiacovo - 241-22-72-94
3) Boyd Gordon - 303-24-52-76
4) Zach Parise - 407-160-175-335
5) Marek Schwarz (G) - 4-0-2-0
6) Martin Hanzal - 227-30-69-99
7) Trevor Lewis - 11-1-2-3
8) Alexei Cherepanov - [RIP]
9) Jake Gardiner - 0-0-0-0

Best 17th overall 2000-2008: Zach Parise
Worst 17th overall 2000-2008 Alex Mikhnov
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 66.6
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

18th overall

1) Brooks Orpik - 449-8-72-80
2) Jens Karlsson - 0-0-0-0
3) Denis Grebeshkov - 227-17-67-84
4) Eric Fehr - 178-36-37-73
5) Kyle Chipchura - 123-10-16-26
6) Ryan Parent - 102-1-6-7
7) Chris Stewart - 130-39-44-83
8) Ian Cole - 0-0-0-0
9) Chet Pickard (G) - 0-0-0-0

Best 18th overall 2000-2008: Brooks Oprik
Worst 18th overall 2000-2008 Jens Karlsson
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 22.2
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 55.5
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

19th overall

1) Krys Kolanos - 135-20-21-41
2) Shaone Morrisonn - 418-10-60-70
3) Jakub Koreis - 0-0-0-0
4) Ryan Getzlaf - 363-107-232-339
5) Lauri Korpikoski - 139-11-14-25
6) Jakub Kindl - 3-0-0-0
7) Mark Mitera - 0-0-0-0
8) Logan MacMillan - 0-0-0-0
9) Luca Sbisa - 47-0-7-7

Best 19th overall 2000-2008: Ryan Getzlaf
Worst 19th overall 2000-2008 Jakub Koreis
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 55.5
% chance of this pick busting: 33.3

20th overall

1) Alexander Frolov - 536-168-213-381
2) Marcel Goc - 338-32-52-84
3) Daniel Paille - 269-45-51-96
4) Brent Burns - 378-38-99-137
5) Travis Zajac - 326-76-129-205
6) Kenndal McArdle - 22-1-2-3
7) David Fischer - 0-0-0-0
8) Angelo Esposito - 0-0-0-0
9) Michael Del Zotto - 80-9-28-37

Best 20th overall 2000-2008: Travis Zajac
Worst 20th overall 2000-2008 David Fischer (for now)
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 22.2
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 11.1
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 44.4
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

21st overall

1) Anton Volchenkov - 428-16-78-94
2) Colby Armstrong - 360-78-100-178
3) Anton Babchuk - 168-23-38-61
4) Mark Stuart - 252-12-23-35
5) Wojtek Wolski - 320-79-132-211
6) Tuukka Rask (G) - 50-25-13-6
7) Bobby Sanguinetti - 5-0-0-0
8) Riley Nash - 0-0-0-0
9) Anton Gustafsson - 0-0-0-0

Best 21st overall 2000-2008: Anton Volchenkov
Worst 21st overall 2000-2008: Bobby Sanguinetti (so far)
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 33.3
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 55.5
% chance of this pick busting: Nearly 0

22nd overall

1) David Hale - 302-3-21-24
2) Jiri Novotny - 189-20-31-51
3) Sean Bergenheim - 246-40-40-80
4) Marc-Antoine Pouliot - 176-21-32-53
5) Lukas Kaspar - 16-2-2-4
6) Matt Lashoff - 63-1-14-15
7) Claude Giroux - 126-25-49-74
8) Max Pacioretty - 86-6-19-25
9) Jordan Eberle - 0-0-0-0

Best 22nd overall 2000-2008: Claude Giroux
Worst 22nd overall 2000-2008: Lukas Kaspar
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 11.1
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 77.7
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

23rd overall

1) Nathan Smith - 26-0-0-0
2) Tim Gleason - 393-12-72-84
3) Ben Eager - 255-27-25-52
4) Ryan Kesler - 402-90-125-215
5) Andrej Meszaros - 379-34-109-143
6) Nicklas Bergfors - 90-22-23-45
7) Semyon Varlamov (G) - 32-19-4-7
8) Jon Blum - 0-0-0-0
9) Tyler Cuma - 0-0-0-0

Best 23rd overall 2000-2008: Ryan Kesler
Worst 23rd overall 2000-2008: Nathan Smith
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 44.4
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 33.3
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

24th overall

1) Brad Boyes - 410-133-161-294
2) Lukas Krajicek - 328-11-61-72
3) Alex Steen - 382-80-117-187
4) Mike Richards - 372-110-173-283
5) Kris Chucko - 2-0-0-0
6) T.J. Oshie - 133-32-55-87
7) Dennis Persson - 0-0-0-0
8) Mikael Backlund - 24-1-9-10
9) Mattias Tedenby - 0-0-0-0

Best 24th overall 2000-2008: Mike Richards
Worst 24th overall 2000-2008: Dennis Persson
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 11.1
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 66.6
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

25th overall

1) Steve Ott - 410-62-87-149
2) Alexander Perezhogin - 128-15-19-34
3) Cam Ward (G) - 272-138-100-23
4) Anthony Stewart - 105-4-8-12
5) Rob Schremp - 51-7-21-28
6) Andrew Cogliano - 246-46-65-111
7) Patrik Berglund - 147-34-39-73
8) Patrick White - 0-0-0-0
9) Greg Nemisz - 0-0-0-0

Best 25th overall 2000-2008: Cam Ward
Worst 25th overall 2000-2008: Alexander Perezhogin
Major Awards: Conn Smythe Trophy

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 66.6
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

26th overall

1) Brian Sutherby - 409-39-47-86
2) Jason Bacashihua (G) - 38-7-17-4
3) Martin Vagner - 0-0-0-0
4) Brian Boyle - 107-12-4-16
5) Cory Schenider - 10-2-5-1
6) Matt Pelech - 5-0-3-3
7) Leland Irving (G) - 0-0-0-0
8) David Perron - 225-48-76-124
9) Tyler Ennis - 10-3-6-9

Best 26th overall 2000-2008: David Perron
Worst 26th overall 2000-2008: Martin Vagner
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 11.1
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 77.7
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

27th overall

1) Martin Samuelsson - 14-0-1-1
2) Jeff Woywitka - 188-6-32-38
3) Mike Morris - 0-0-0-0
4) Jeff Tambellini - 180-18-28-46
5) Jeff Schultz - 247-9-47-56
6) Joe Finley - 0-0-0-0
7) Ivan Vishnevsky - 5-0-2-2
8) Brendan Smith - 0-0-0-0
9) John Carlson - 22-1-5-6

Best 27th overall 2000-2008: Jeff Schultz
Worst 27th overall 2000-2008: Mike Morris
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 66.6
% chance of this pick busting: 33.3

28th overall

1) Justin Williams - 552-135-214-349
2) Adrian Foster - 0-0-0-0
3) Jonas Johansson - 1-0-0-0
4) Corey Perry - 368-118-153-271
5) Mark Fistric - 140-1-15-16
6) Matt Niskanen - 232-16-60-76
7) Nick Foligno - 187-32-35-67
8) Nick Petricki - 0-0-0-0
9) Viktor Tikhonov - 61-8-8-16

Best 28th overall 2000-2008: Corey Perry
Worst 28th overall 2000-2008: Adrian Foster
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: 11.1
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 55.5
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

29th overall

1) Nicklas Kronwall - 308-23-121-144
2) Adam Munro (G) - 17-4-10-1
3) Hannu Toivinen (G) - 61-18-24-10
4) Patrick Eaves - 307-55-57-112
5) Mike Green - 317-71-149-220
6) Steve Downie - 140-31-33-64
7) Chris Summers - 0-0-0-0
8) Jim O'Brien - 0-0-0-0
9) Daultan Leveille - 0-0-0-0

Best 29th overall 2000-2008: Mike Green
Worst 29th overall 2000-2008: Adam Munro
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: 11.1
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 66.6
% chance of this pick busting: 11.1

30th overall

1) Jeff Taffe - 174-21-23-44
2) David Steckel - 234-18-29-47
3) Jim Slater - 335-42-46-88
4) Shawn Belle - 11-0-1-1
5) Andy Rogers - 0-0-0-0
6) Vladimir Mihalik - 15-0-3-3
7) Matt Corrente - 12-0-0-0
8) Nick Ross - 0-0-0-0
9) Thomas McCollum (G) - 0-0-0-0

Best 30th overall 2000-2008: Jim Slater
Worst 30th overall 2000-2008: Andy Rogers
Major Awards: None

% chance of drafting a Superstar with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a Star with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of drafting a First-Liner with this pick: Nearly 0
% chance of landing a Serviceable Player with this pick: 77.7
% chance of this pick busting: 22.2

As we can see, not all first round picks are created equal; 1st overall has a huge chance to hit (88.8% of players becoming at least first liners and virtually no chance to bust), 77.7% of 2nd overalls become at least first liners, 3rd overall drops to 66.6% (11.1% chance of busting) first liners, 4th overall drops to 44.4 and 5th drops to 22.2, and so on down the line (44.4% of 28th, 29th and 30th overall become at least first liners).

But there are some inconsistencies; 6th and 9th overall picks have tended to be unimpressive, 11th and 13th have been strong, 15th is possibly the weakest group overall, 21st and 24th are excellent groups, while 28th is noticealy better than 26th and 27th.

I also made some graphs to illustrate the disparity;

Average Career Points per Player by Pick Number: (note: for goalies wins = points) (URL)

Values:

Quote:
1)312
2)270
3)165
4)147
5)120
6)142
7)85
8)77
9)67
10)32
11)67
12)50
13)136
14)59
15)27
16)53
17)68
18)39
19)54
20)105
21)67
22)36
23)61
24)104
25)61
26)28
27)17
28)88
29)62
30)20
Average Number of NHL Games Played per Player by Pick Number: (URL)

Values:

Quote:
1)339
2)310
3)261
4)269
5)240
6)256
7)208
8)180
9)165
10)89
11)190
12)157
13)218
14)147
15)52
16)139
17)133
18)135
19)123
20)217
21)176
22)134
23)175
24)183
25)151
26)89
27)73
28)171
29)128
30)87
Conclusion: First round draft picks aren't god's gift to hockey. While drafting (and the occasional big free agent signing) are the only ways to get elite talent, if you're drafting outside of the top 4, it's a very big crapshoot.

As this is the Beta version, all I'd really like is to find a good image hosting site for the graphs so I could put them in the post, and maybe make the spacing look a little better.


Last edited by Voodoo Child: 08-26-2010 at 10:16 PM.
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Old
08-26-2010, 09:29 PM
  #2
Buddio
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Wow great thread.

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08-26-2010, 09:29 PM
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Holy ****.

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08-26-2010, 09:32 PM
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Seguin has a 33.3% chance of being a superstar.

Nice detailed post.

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08-26-2010, 09:33 PM
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I didn't read the whole post, but I looked at the players drafted second overall and now I'm kind of upset.

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08-26-2010, 09:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerkini View Post
I didn't read the whole post, but I looked at the players drafted second overall and now I'm kind of upset.
Feeling as I do that at worst we give Boston 7th overall next year, I feel a lot better about it.

This list was made in response to all of the prospect tugging that goes on around here on our beloved HFboards.

But I found out lots of interesting stuff.

Kessel has more goals than anyone from his Draft class (which was a good one).

Joni Pitkanen has a higher career PPG than Jay Bouwmeester.

Karl Alzner is not as good offensively as Luke Schenn.

Et al.

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08-26-2010, 09:45 PM
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i disagree that Radulov was the worst pick at 15/16 or whatever. He is a good player, Nashville just got unlucky with the fact that he ditched them for the KHL. Also, Tlusty is a far worse pick than Zagrapan

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08-26-2010, 09:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Leafs4Life88 View Post
i disagree that Radulov was the worst pick at 15/16 or whatever. He is a good player, Nashville just got unlucky with the fact that he ditched them for the KHL. Also, Tlusty is a far worse pick than Zagrapan
I actually had him as the best 15th overall pick, must have just been too hurried in complining my data. It's sad when a player who bolts for Russia is the best in the last 9 years at a certain pick, though I think Karlsson will be better.

At least Too Lusty played and will still be playing in the NHL next year. Zagrapan is in the KHL until at least 2012.

EDIT: Best 10th overall pick...Andrei Kostitsyn. Even though Frolik will pass, I laugh at the Hodgson and Paajarvi fanboys crying superstar.

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08-26-2010, 09:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Voodoo Child View Post
I actually had him as the best 15th overall pick, must have just been too hurried in complining my data. It's sad when a player who bolts for Russia is the best in the last 9 years at a certain pick, though I think Karlsson will be better.

At least Too Lusty played and will still be playing in the NHL next year. Zagrapan is in the KHL until at least 2012.
Whoops haha. My mistake. Tlusty, on a good team, should be no more than a 1st liner in the A and the first forward called up in case of injury. The fact that he was traded for a 30th overall pick in a later draft really says what Burke and the rest of the Leafs think of him.

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08-26-2010, 09:58 PM
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update: Kessel (star) or 33% chance of getting a superstar?

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08-26-2010, 10:05 PM
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Wow wee wee wow. Great thread man full props.

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08-26-2010, 10:08 PM
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So what your saying is Seguin has a 77.7% chance of AT LEAST being a first liner?

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08-26-2010, 10:10 PM
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Out of curiosity, how come you mentioned that 50 goals makes you a superstar, but then never used goals as any meter for any other level?

And if you go through all the trouble of giving your definition of what you think it means to call a player a certain "title" (superstar, etc.), why not actually list what level according to your system each player is at? It would make this a whole lot more useful.

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08-26-2010, 10:11 PM
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Best 21st overall should be Rask not Volchenkov... only problem but this is AMAZING!!!!

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08-26-2010, 10:13 PM
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Dude, this was absolutely awesome and I really appreciate the hard work.

Just a couple things:
Fourth overall adds up to more than 100%
And Brooks Orpik as a star?

No real complaints though, it seems well thought out, and a fantastic reference point.

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08-26-2010, 10:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyAustralia View Post
update: Kessel (star) or 33% chance of getting a superstar?
Currently a first liner, on his way to being a star (as I anticipate 40 goals 70 points this year), but his shot at superstardom is closing fast. He could still do it but it's not overly likely (I'm thinking he tops out around 45-40-85).

Anyways it's not about semantics. I know Seguin is going to be good, when people say 'lolzolzolzol u dumm Leefs gaev tem Kinght AND a hi1st next yr. lozolzolzol!'

First, Knight will probably be mediocre (I repsect his way of going to the net and his hands, but he's not big or fast), second, that first won't be second overall again.

People on HFboards love their draft picks so much they should marry them, but if anything this data shows that the only 1st rounders that are really significant are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 11th, 13th, 20th, 21st, 24th and 28th

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08-26-2010, 10:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikhailStefanovich View Post
Out of curiosity, how come you mentioned that 50 goals makes you a superstar, but then never used goals as any meter for any other level?

And if you go through all the trouble of giving your definition of what you think it means to call a player a certain "title" (superstar, etc.), why not actually list what level according to your system each player is at? It would make this a whole lot more useful.
50 vs. 40, seems to me 40 is a place a lot of guys can hit, but 50 is the upper echelon.

Otherwise excellent, more work for me to do...****.



We're Leafs fans, therefore we are informed...we know where everyone is at.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Defence View Post
Best 21st overall should be Rask not Volchenkov... only problem but this is AMAZING!!!!
I actually had it 1) Volchenkov, 2) Wolski, 3) Babchuk, 4) Rask. He'll get there, but let him prove more.

21st overall...a surprisingly strong pick.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripe4theSnipe View Post
Dude, this was absolutely awesome and I really appreciate the hard work.

Just a couple things:
Fourth overall adds up to more than 100%
And Brooks Orpik as a star?

No real complaints though, it seems well thought out, and a fantastic reference point.
I fixed 4th...Backstrom is the superstar, Pitkanen and Weiss are 1st liners, everyone else to this point is serviceable.

I would consider Orpik a star...top 3 shutdown guy in the league, most definitely a star.

Yet another edit: of all the words HF bleeps out, not d**k?


Last edited by Voodoo Child: 08-26-2010 at 10:26 PM.
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08-26-2010, 10:28 PM
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Very Interesting. Great Read. Really Appreciate the hard work put into this thread.

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08-26-2010, 10:32 PM
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Wow awesome job dude, should post it on the main board.

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08-26-2010, 10:35 PM
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This is absolutely awesome. Great job!

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08-26-2010, 10:48 PM
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Wow... This site needs rep for threads like this...

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08-26-2010, 10:52 PM
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amazing thread. You've demonstrated clearly that in a given year there are 2, maybe 3, kids that show enough talent to guarentee future success. With most 18 year olds its a guess game. Which is why I would like to see the draft age moved to 19 or 20, allowing the odd exceptional 18 year old (Cros, AO, Malkin) to enter early.

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08-26-2010, 10:54 PM
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You deserve a sticker for your hard work.

Best I can do is to sticky for a while.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bA3LN_8hjM8.

Vaive and Ludzik on collapse, and Phaneuf.
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08-26-2010, 10:58 PM
  #24
Voodoo Child
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RustE View Post
amazing thread. You've demonstrated clearly that in a given year there are 2, maybe 3, kids that show enough talent to guarentee future success. With most 18 year olds its a guess game. Which is why I would like to see the draft age moved to 19 or 20, allowing the odd exceptional 18 year old (Cros, AO, Malkin) to enter early.
Ex-****ing-actly!

People are so dumb, so dumb so dumb...they are so dumb.

A Crosby or Ovechkin comes along every 15 years

A Malkin or Doughty comes along about every 6-7 years.

Backstrom-Toews-Stamkos types are around every 3 or so years.

First round picks are valuable of course, but your 27th overall pick, if your close, can be traded for help because chances are the player you pick up isn't as good as the player it will fetch.

I heard some fools say Lucic was worth a mid first at the moment. That may be his market value, but if I'm PC I don't trade him for that, same with people wanting Kulemin shipped out for a mid 1st when he was struggling to be resigned.

I know this is a prospect-oriented site, but get the **** real...

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08-26-2010, 11:07 PM
  #25
Voodoo Child
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Oh and by the way, this is a Beta here because 1) I'm a fan of the Leafs first and 2) We know hockey more than anyone. Anyone who says otherwise can bown down and speak into the mic.

I posted the beta here mostly because I was looking for a few things;

1) A good image hosting site so I can integrate the graphs into the post (and maybe a better graph making tool...I am functionally computarded as well).

2) Any errors, awards, miscues with picks, typos et al.

3) Maybe some ideas on the spacing.

This is going on the main board eventually, and these guys who pop over prospects, chub over continued development and raise tents over really high picks will be made aware.

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