HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Metropolitan Division > Philadelphia Flyers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

Carter/Giroux/Leino/Zherdev cap hit next year?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
07-26-2010, 11:26 AM
  #76
Cartsiephan*
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,488
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by dookie88 View Post
I don't see Zherdev and Leino on this team long term.
We probably run with

Richards
Briere
Carter
JVR
Hartnell
Giroux

as the scoring core and add some pluggers who can fill some roles for the bottom six.

That being said.
Giroux 8 years $46mil
Carter 3 years $13mil and the use of Homer's beach house in the summer


Fixed...

Cartsiephan* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-26-2010, 01:18 PM
  #77
lancer247
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,020
vCash: 500
I see a lot of people assuming Giroux will get $4M range.

I am assuming this is for him giving up free agent years. I can't see a guy who hasn't cracked 20 goals getting that kind of dough but people wnat to trade Carter.

Mason Raymond just signed for less the $3M ($2.5M X 2yrs). I know Claude walks on water to many people on this board but has he shown more then Raymond up to this point?

lancer247 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-26-2010, 01:25 PM
  #78
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by lancer247 View Post
I see a lot of people assuming Giroux will get $4M range.

I am assuming this is for him giving up free agent years. I can't see a guy who hasn't cracked 20 goals getting that kind of dough but people wnat to trade Carter.

Mason Raymond just signed for less the $3M ($2.5M X 2yrs). I know Claude walks on water to many people on this board but has he shown more then Raymond up to this point?
being non-arbitration eligible, and showing the potential he has... will drive up his cost, most likely. Very similar to what happened with Jeff Carter. Carter had a career high of 53 pts... when he signed for 5M a year.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-26-2010, 01:28 PM
  #79
lancer247
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,020
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
being non-arbitration eligible, and showing the potential he has... will drive up his cost, most likely. Very similar to what happened with Jeff Carter. Carter had a career high of 53 pts... when he signed for 5M a year.
True. How would you compare his potential to someone like Ryamond?
Did Raymond just give them a really good hometown discount?

lancer247 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-26-2010, 01:31 PM
  #80
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by lancer247 View Post
True. How would you compare his potential to someone like Ryamond?
Did Raymond just give them a really good hometown discount?
Well, for starters, Giroux is over 2 years younger than Raymond.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-26-2010, 01:39 PM
  #81
EasyMac
Registered User
 
EasyMac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Kingston
Country: Canada
Posts: 834
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
being non-arbitration eligible, and showing the potential he has... will drive up his cost, most likely. Very similar to what happened with Jeff Carter. Carter had a career high of 53 pts... when he signed for 5M a year.
While that contract did work out, it set a bad precedent for future RFA negotiations. Paying out mainly based on potential can royally bite teams in the ass.

It will be interesting to see what happens to all three of these players.

Both Giroux and Leino have not done much in the regular season, but both had a great run in the playoffs. If they were to sign contracts now, based only on statistics, neither would get too much. However if I was either of them, I wouldn't dare negotiate a contract until nearer the end of the season as if either (or both) have a good regular season then that will justify nice contracts for each of them.

Giroux:
Signs in the near future: 2 years @ 2.75 million/season (similar to the Perron contract) or 3 years @ 3 million/season
Signs near the end of the season after poor/mediocre season: 2 years @ 2.75 million/season
Signs after good season: 3 years @ 3.5 million/season
Signs after good season and good playoffs: 3 years @ 4-4.5 million/season

Leino:
Signs in the near future: 2 years @ 2 million/season
Signs near the end of the season after poor/mediocre season: 2 years @ 1.5 million/season
Signs after good season: 2 years @ 2.75-3 million/season
Signs after good season and good playoffs: 2 years @ 3-3.5 million/season

Zherdev:
Probably won't matter, as if he plays well = big contract (>3.5 million) = Flyers can't afford him. If he plays poorly, then there is not point to re-sign him.

EasyMac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-26-2010, 01:41 PM
  #82
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EasyMac View Post
While that contract did work out, it set a bad precedent for future RFA negotiations. Paying out mainly based on potential can royally bite teams in the ass.
It can definitely bite you if the player doesn't develop, but it's a reality of the leverage these non-arbitration players have if they've shown something at this level. If you're concerned about what an offer sheet might bring with it... then you have to react accordingly.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-26-2010, 02:15 PM
  #83
EasyMac
Registered User
 
EasyMac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Kingston
Country: Canada
Posts: 834
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
It can definitely bite you if the player doesn't develop, but it's a reality of the leverage these non-arbitration players have if they've shown something at this level. If you're concerned about what an offer sheet might bring with it... then you have to react accordingly.
The Carter offer was a bit higher then I would have expected even if they were worried about offer sheets. At that time, I would be surprised if team were willing to give up two 1sts/2nd/3rd for Carter, which would be required once they hit the $5,231,249 mark. Anything in the $3,923,437 - $5,231,249 would only be 1st/2nd/3rd and I think that is the limit of what teams would be willing to give up. So the Flyers signed him at the high end of the window. I think if they would have waited, they likely would have gotten at worse a similar price by matching, or an even better price when no offer sheet occured (as they don't happen near as often as people seem to think - the general "If he wants more then that, let another team sign them and take the picks" you hear every offseason).

Though all it takes is one crazy GM. Of course we already have our own who is the most likely GM to overpay for a player.

EasyMac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-26-2010, 02:18 PM
  #84
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EasyMac View Post
The Carter offer was a bit higher then I would have expected even if they were worried about offer sheets. At that time, I would be surprised if team were willing to give up two 1sts/2nd/3rd for Carter, which would be required once they hit the $5,231,249 mark. Anything in the $3,923,437 - $5,231,249 would only be 1st/2nd/3rd and I think that is the limit of what teams would be willing to give up. So the Flyers signed him at the high end of the window. I think if they would have waited, they likely would have gotten at worse a similar price by matching, or an even better price when no offer sheet occured (as they don't happen near as often as people seem to think - the general "If he wants more then that, let another team sign them and take the picks" you hear every offseason).

Though all it takes is one crazy GM. Of course we already have our own who is the most likely GM to overpay for a player.
The Vanek offer really freaked people out. I see people referencing the Kessel offer sheet, but in reality that was a very mild and strategic offer by Clarke. The Vanek offer blew the gates open as far as what was possible for players in that situation.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-26-2010, 02:45 PM
  #85
EasyMac
Registered User
 
EasyMac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Kingston
Country: Canada
Posts: 834
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
The Vanek offer really freaked people out. I see people referencing the Kessel offer sheet, but in reality that was a very mild and strategic offer by Clarke. The Vanek offer blew the gates open as far as what was possible for players in that situation.
True, that Vanek offer was really out of nowhere, trying to remember the last time an offer sheet was giving that would be at the top end of compensation, probably have to go way back to the Gratton one (which the Flyers got saved by TB's stupidity of trading the picks back). Before that there was one for Federov I believe by Carolina. Those were both under a different compensation system as there is now. I am sure there were others but that is all I can think of.

I always wish the Kesler offer would have worked out. Imagine picking him up for the price of a 2nd rounder. Who knows if he would have developed into the same player he is today here, but putting him into our lineup (not that it could be done for cap reasons) would be nice.

EasyMac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-27-2010, 01:49 PM
  #86
Foreverinour
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 99
vCash: 500
carter= 5.75 if he has an ~80point season
G= 3-4 if he has a solid season and over 20 goals.
leino=unless he has an amazing season, 2.5-3.5
zherdev=depends on how he plays..2-4.

just to throw other stuff out there. downie got 1 point less than giroux and is 1 year older and isnt signed (over 20 goals). bergfors is 23 not re signed yet and got 44 points (over 20 goals). so depending on what these guys get will give us an idea of what giroux will ask for.

Foreverinour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-27-2010, 01:53 PM
  #87
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foreverinour View Post
carter= 5.75 if he has an ~80point season
G= 3-4 if he has a solid season and over 20 goals.
leino=unless he has an amazing season, 2.5-3.5
zherdev=depends on how he plays..2-4.

just to throw other stuff out there. downie got 1 point less than giroux and is 1 year older and isnt signed (over 20 goals). bergfors is 23 not re signed yet and got 44 points (over 20 goals). so depending on what these guys get will give us an idea of what giroux will ask for.
Downie is a poor barometer just because he's got a baggage train trailing behind him... at least, I wouldn't use him as my primary reference pole.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2010, 12:13 PM
  #88
EasyMac
Registered User
 
EasyMac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Kingston
Country: Canada
Posts: 834
vCash: 500
So Sam Gagner just got a 2 year, 4.55 million deal (2.275 per year) deal. This is following David Perrons 2 year, 4.3 million deal (2.15 per year).

Gagner's stats:
2007-08 Edmonton Oilers NHL 79 13 36 49
2008-09 Edmonton Oilers NHL 76 16 25 41
2009-10 Edmonton Oilers NHL 68 15 26 41

Perron's stats:
2007-08 St. Louis Blues NHL 62 13 14 27
2008-09 St. Louis Blues NHL 81 15 35 50
2009-10 St. Louis Blues NHL 82 20 27 47

Giroux's stats:
2008-09 Philadelphia Flyers NHL 42 9 18 27
2009-10 Philadelphia Flyers NHL 82 16 31 47

Obviously one advantage Giroux has over these players is playoff success (Gagner hasn't been to the playoffs yet, Perron only has played 4 playoff games). Barring a huge breakout season, it seems the market for a player like Giroux is in the 2-2.5 million range on a shorter term deal. However if Giroux does put up big numbers this season before signing his contract, or has another great playoff run, or both, his cap hit will go up. But it does seem that the market is somewhat favourable for getting Giroux signed for a couple of year for a good cap hit.

EasyMac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2010, 12:24 PM
  #89
Jester
Registered User
 
Jester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: St. Andrews
Country: Scotland
Posts: 34,075
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by EasyMac View Post
So Sam Gagner just got a 2 year, 4.55 million deal (2.275 per year) deal. This is following David Perrons 2 year, 4.3 million deal (2.15 per year).

Gagner's stats:
2007-08 Edmonton Oilers NHL 79 13 36 49
2008-09 Edmonton Oilers NHL 76 16 25 41
2009-10 Edmonton Oilers NHL 68 15 26 41

Perron's stats:
2007-08 St. Louis Blues NHL 62 13 14 27
2008-09 St. Louis Blues NHL 81 15 35 50
2009-10 St. Louis Blues NHL 82 20 27 47

Giroux's stats:
2008-09 Philadelphia Flyers NHL 42 9 18 27
2009-10 Philadelphia Flyers NHL 82 16 31 47

Obviously one advantage Giroux has over these players is playoff success (Gagner hasn't been to the playoffs yet, Perron only has played 4 playoff games). Barring a huge breakout season, it seems the market for a player like Giroux is in the 2-2.5 million range on a shorter term deal. However if Giroux does put up big numbers this season before signing his contract, or has another great playoff run, or both, his cap hit will go up. But it does seem that the market is somewhat favourable for getting Giroux signed for a couple of year for a good cap hit.
Depends... the RFA players have relatively little leverage other than the threat of a RFA offer. So, you basically need to wait until you get to June/July before you're going to be able to really cash in. There's no pressure on the team to cave to a RFA player early on... and the player has limited recourse other than the threat of a RFA offer (look what's happening with Bobby Ryan).

Now the team can use the RFA threat strategically... because of the compensation, you can generally get an idea of what range the offers may come in at, and whether you'd be comfortable paying the player that amount. If you are, then let someone else sign him and just match... if not, wait for the player to lower their demands. If another team goes over where you're comfortable, then you're going to get a lot of compensation back and you can just go with that going forward.

Giroux is kind of in an odd position because he's shown flashes of great stuff, but been unable to string that together over an extended run... which has obviously impacted his statistical output.

Jester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2010, 01:08 PM
  #90
RJ8812
Gunner Stahl #9
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Sudbury
Country: Canada
Posts: 25,549
vCash: 500
one of Carle, Coburn and Meszaros will be gone as well

RJ8812 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2010, 01:30 PM
  #91
Ri hards
Registered User
 
Ri hards's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,795
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by agrudez View Post

C'est ne bonne pas mon amis.
That would be:

Ce n'est pas bon mes amis

And I would expect Zheredev to be gone one way or another after this season. Either he plays well and prices himself out of our range or he plays poorly and we don't want him back.

Ri hards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2010, 01:48 PM
  #92
GirouxCouturier
GirouxMVP
 
GirouxCouturier's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: British Columbia
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,333
vCash: 500
Sign Giroux for ever and carter for 4 years. Then try for Leino and Zherdev

GirouxCouturier is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2010, 02:07 PM
  #93
DenverBoone
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 897
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by RJ8812 View Post
one of Carle, Coburn and Meszaros will be gone as well
Remember Pronger and Timonen aren't exactly spring chickens. How may years of all-star performance do we expect from Pronger, realistically? 2-3, maybe four?

DenverBoone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2010, 02:30 PM
  #94
RJ8812
Gunner Stahl #9
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Sudbury
Country: Canada
Posts: 25,549
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverBoone View Post
Remember Pronger and Timonen aren't exactly spring chickens. How may years of all-star performance do we expect from Pronger, realistically? 2-3, maybe four?
one of those 3 will have to go....if you want to stretch it, then if you think Timonen will be moved, you can add him to the list of potential trade bait

RJ8812 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
08-31-2010, 07:52 PM
  #95
King Forsberg
21 68 88 16 44 28
 
King Forsberg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Country: United States
Posts: 5,272
vCash: 500
If carter demands more than 6 mil he should be gone.

King Forsberg is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
09-01-2010, 07:53 AM
  #96
The Saw Is the Law
Registered User
 
The Saw Is the Law's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Country: Finland
Posts: 1,837
vCash: 500
Carter: 6m

Giroux: 3.5-4

Leino: 2-2.5

Zherdev: 3.5-5

Zherdev is hard. If he plays amazing 5million if not amazing but good 3.5

The Saw Is the Law is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-01-2010, 11:52 AM
  #97
orange is better
than other colors...
 
orange is better's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Country: United States
Posts: 7,961
vCash: 500
with our anticipated cap hit at about 13.5 for next season, and the cap projected to raise about 2 million, i dont think singing the players we need is going to be as big a deal as people are making out. alot can be done with about 15.5 million in space. Here's a list of RFAs and UFAs next off season...

Brian Boucher - UFA - 33 - .925M - GONE
With Bobrovsky coming up, i doubt boucher will be resigned. He'll walk and Leighton and Bobrovksy will battle for the starting position, or maybe Backlund if Bob isn't ready by then.
Daniel Carcillo - RFA - 25 - 1.075M - GONE
With an abundance of 3rd and 4th line prospects that will most likely be ready to take the step to the NHL by next season. (Testwuide, Wellwood, Holmstrom etc.) Carcillo will most likely be gone next off season. His cap hit is too high for him to be resigned when we have Jeff Carter and Claude Giroux on the list with him. If it were any other scenerio, i'd say he stays. But his game can be replaced fairly easy.
Jeff Carter - RFA - 25 - 5M - STAYS
I fully expect him to accept a modest cap hit, on a long term deal, much like Mike Richards. Carter has made it clear that he wants to be a Flyer, and he really doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to demand 7-8 million. I'd say they offer him 5.75M on a 7 or 8 year deal.
Claude Giroux - RFA - 22 - .822M - STAYS
Depending on how he plays, he'll most likely get something like 3.5M on a 2 or 3 year deal. However, I fully expect Giroux to be resigned before the trade deadline. Homer said a couple weeks ago that talks have already opened with Giroux's agent and they are beginning to work out a deal. I am confident that Giroux will be a Flyer no matter what.
Ville Leino - UFA - 26 - .800M - UNCLEAR
I expect Leino to play well. Now, i don't expect him to play as well as he did in the playoffs, but i'm thinking about 15 goals, 30 or so assists. If that is the case, i think they offer him a contract. Maybe something along the lines of 2M for 2 years.
Darroll Powe - RFA - 25 - .725 - GONE
Even though i'm a fan of Powe, and he's a great utility guy on the 3rd and 4th lines, we do have an abundance of young 3rd and 4th line prospects that im sure the organization wants to get going. I'm thinking that this is the reason the Flyers signed him to a 1 year deal. Im sure one of the afformentioned prospects will be given a shot to do Powes job better.
Sean O'Donnell - UFA - 38 - 1M - GONE
Will be 40 next season. Im sure he'll be retiring. If he doesn't, i doubt he'll be playing here.
Nikolai Zherdev - UFA - 25 - 2M - UNCLEAR
Probably the biggest question mark. If he plays very well, i doubt we will be able to invest in him, the money he would want. However, If he plays well enough we might be stupid to not make whatever move neccessary in order to sign him. On the other hand, if he doesn't play well he will be a non-issue and it wont mean all that much if we don't resign him... We'll see what happens

Factoring in the Resignings, that accumulates a total of 11.5M (including Leino). This is not factoring in the collective cap hit of the players that would be replacing Boucher, Carcillo and Powe.


Last edited by orange is better: 09-01-2010 at 12:33 PM.
orange is better is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:59 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.