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Hurricane Earl

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Old
09-01-2010, 09:08 PM
  #1
RyanBozak
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Hurricane Earl

Seeing as most of the area has been placed under Tropical Storm watches and warnings, I figured this thread would be relevant here. If there's a problem, go ahead and delete it if needed.

Just a little precursor to everything, I'm going to go out and say this with fair ease, "The threat is there".

Despite the media and news aboard the safe train the last few days, I've been paying close attention to Earl and his development since last Friday or so. For some reason, I've had this gut feeling that this was going to be a threat for the East Coast since then, there's a lot of factors that are coming together/there/have been there that have been signaling that it might be.

To keep this simplistic and more enjoyable, I'll try to avoid going too in depth. I'll start off with current warnings and images of Earl and break it down to possible scenarios.

Current Watches and warnings:






Current Water Vapor:



Current Sat IR:



(Noting that these images will update as they're updated from their sites, makes it easier if people just want to refer to this thread for a quick update)


Current Forecast track via NOAA/NWS



Quick breakdown of my thoughts and feelings:

@8PM this afternoon the Nation Weather Service released an update stating Earl is back up to a Category 4 hurricane, with an Estimated central pressure of around 941mb and winds sustained at 135MPH.
Looking over the data of Recon plane missions that have been on set schedules, the last recent update has Earl sitting at a pressure of 932 mb, a staggering 9mb drop, which if you don't know, is quite a drop within an hours time. My feelings by looking at the sat images and radar is that Earl is rapidly intensifying currently. I would not be surprised to see him hit Category 5 of the scale sometime tonight, if things are working out as they are now.

There is one/two major influences on the track of Earl at this moment, and I'm totally disregarding the computer models for guidance at this point. 1) Is a trough (cold front) moving through the MidWest right now, which will have the most influence on Earl. In the early stages of it's development, it looked as if the trough would make way to the coast and sweep Earl out to sea. Currently, it's not looking like it will. The trough has slowed down (something the Danielle going out to sea has caused, a severe -NAO, which creates a block over the northern atlantic + the ridge we currently have which has been weakening due to the trough) and is still over the midwest. Here's a current image of where it's located:




The timing of the trough will be crucial to whether or not Earl recurves out to sea or not after making a close call with North Carolina. However, there's a few things to factor in or think about in the meantime.

A simpler version of my thoughts are:

A) If the trough doesn't make it's way through the country fast enough, Earl will come close or make Landfall in NC. Afterwards, slowly veer N and up the coast. This is probably Bad Situation number #2, in terms of severity to the coast and it's residents.

B) The trough tilts negatively. Not that this is completely likely to happen, but if a trough tilts negatively it's by all means a bad sign with a hurricane. This will allow Earl to make landfall in the Tristate area. This is bad situation #1 in terms of everything that could go wrong.

C) What is most likely, which I don't like saying that, because there are still other factors in play that need time to unfold before saying that this is likely, is that Earl takes a path slightly west of what the track above says (the NWS track) and we all see Tropical Storm force winds and rain bands from Earl. LI and Mass get the worst of it, maybe Hurricane conditions.

What's making me lean towards being doubtful of the "most likely" scenario is Earl's strength. Major hurricanes and stronger systems, especially "Annular Hurricanes", which I'm not saying Earl is, but he is showing signs of possibly being one, tend to disregard what would happen "normally". Interactions with fronts and dry air would fall into this category.

Basically what it comes down to is the track. Keep an eye out http://www.nws.noaa.gov and check up on the warnings and watches that are posted. I'll try to give this another update or few before Friday.

Feel free to ask questions (if I can answer them ) or comments. Just to put this out there, by all means I am not a professional Meteorologist. I'm going to school for Meteorology and hopefully majoring in it, but more or less this is from a semi-knowledgeable weather enthusiast. Don't want to sound like I'm a Pro-Met or anything.

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Old
09-01-2010, 09:12 PM
  #2
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I can't believe you guys are receiving a tropical storm watch/warning this hurricane season before us idiots living in Florida had our first.

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Old
09-01-2010, 09:32 PM
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Blueshirt Special
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Thanks Scott!

Good info.

For what it's worth, I have no objection to this OT thread.

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09-01-2010, 09:34 PM
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This could either be just a bad rainstorm, or just plain bad. I hope those in charge don't sleep on Earl.

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09-01-2010, 09:51 PM
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Nice info, I enjoyed the info from all you guys when we got killed with the major snow storms.

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Old
09-01-2010, 09:55 PM
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dude.

excellent stuff.

can you predict the chances of both drury and redden being swept out to sea

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09-01-2010, 10:01 PM
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dont worry everyone the high pressure system moving in from the north west will push the hurricane harmlessly out to sea ..or right into long island. destroying nassau coliseum and ensuring that the islanders move to kansas city.

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09-01-2010, 10:03 PM
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can you predict the chances of both drury and redden being swept out to sea
Oh my god...I'm in tears here hahahah. Well done.

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09-01-2010, 10:28 PM
  #9
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bring. it. on.

love hurricanes, call me crazy.

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09-01-2010, 10:33 PM
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For once, us Floridians can rest easy. At least for this one. 2 more out there and yet another looks to be spawning off the coast of Africa.

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09-01-2010, 10:38 PM
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im driving from NY to pittsburgh on friday....hopefully it aint to bad.

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09-01-2010, 10:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alphaqup View Post
For once, us Floridians can rest easy. At least for this one. 2 more out there and yet another looks to be spawning off the coast of Africa.
For real, man! I got to evacuate even for a Category 1 since I live in Evacuation A.

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09-01-2010, 10:41 PM
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No watch or warning for Bergen County NJ?

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09-01-2010, 10:45 PM
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No watch or warning for Bergen County NJ?
They probably figure the Devils are used to being beaten by the Hurricanes.

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09-01-2010, 10:48 PM
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They probably figure the Devils are used to being beaten by the Hurricanes.
hahaha good one.

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09-01-2010, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by BlueCollarBlueBlood View Post
They probably figure the Devils are used to being beaten by the Hurricanes.
Hahahah thats great... I dont think Essex county has one either so you might be right. lol

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09-01-2010, 11:17 PM
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Two Words, people. 2012. I know completely OT. But, crap, fires in Russia, things that haven't happened in 1000 years, cataclisms and catastrophes around the globe. It's neutrinos! From the unprecedented Sun activity! They're heating up the core!

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09-01-2010, 11:25 PM
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Two Words, people. 2012. I know completely OT. But, crap, fires in Russia, things that haven't happened in 1000 years, cataclisms and catastrophes around the globe. It's neutrinos! From the unprecedented Sun activity! They're heating up the core!
Not even 2012 can ruin me.

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Old
09-01-2010, 11:35 PM
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It still seems unlikely that the Cane/Storm will hit the NY coast, but they are doing the smart thing and issuing a watch anyway. Tomorrow should be the telling story if it will come close enough. Either way we are in for for a very windy fri/sat.

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09-02-2010, 12:11 AM
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No watch or warning for Bergen County NJ?
Probably because it's not on the coast?

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Old
09-02-2010, 01:03 AM
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Err, guess I'll bring the bad (or good) news of the night.

00Z suites of the models came out or are coming out. The GFS model, Nogaps model and Ukmet model have all shifted westward with their respective tracks and even have a landfall occurring on one or more of them in the NE and Mid Atlantic. I'll post images.


NOGAPS:


GFS:



UKMET:





MUCH further west than previous runs, which is not good. If you scroll up and read the section on how I mention the trough tilting negatively (or even neutral isn't good), the GFS and UKMET are both portraying that, with these runs. While these may look scary (or confusing ) don't read into too much. All of the models have been ALL over the place with this, as hurricanes are the hardest weather phenomenon to predict. Regardless, if all the models end up trending towards this solution, then one can read into it a little more than now. I'll keep you updated as the night goes on/any important information comes in.

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09-02-2010, 01:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post

UKMET:
OK that one is downright terrifying (I live in Suffolk).

I've personally been checking in on the NHC's forecasts lately.
I wonder if their "official" track will shift west...

What Category would you expect it to be, in the event that it did make landfall in eastern LI?

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09-02-2010, 01:18 AM
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thanks there scott, keep us updated with the info as you see fit.

and if we do get hit by it, stay safe all hfers from long island

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09-02-2010, 01:21 AM
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RyanBozak
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Personally, if that run were to verify, or any one of those, Earl will be significantly weaker. Most Global models (which all three above are) do not handle intensity or pressure of these storms correctly at all, so you could ignore that.
But regardless, colder ocean temps, interaction with the trough and a mixture of the dry air and ridge will speed Earl up and weaken him. Personally, if I had to take a guess, at absolute worst, Earl will be a low Category 3 storm while passing this area. And that's the worst I could imagine, or rather, it's not likely at all. What is likely though, is somewhere between a Mid-Cat 2 to a Cat-1 hurricane (74-110 mph). Or on the other end, could even be a tropical storm by then if something were to really start tearing him apart. But realistically, Cat 1-2 by our area.

Edit:

HWRF Model is in, which is a high-res tropical model. Displays a much better track than the others for the NE/Mid Atl.

Current:


Track:


NC:


Last edited by RyanBozak: 09-02-2010 at 01:27 AM.
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Old
09-02-2010, 01:28 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
Personally, if that run were to verify, or any one of those, Earl will be significantly weaker. Most Global models (which all three above are) do not handle intensity or pressure of these storms correctly at all, so you could ignore that.
But regardless, colder ocean temps, interaction with the trough and a mixture of the dry air and ridge will speed Earl up and weaken him. Personally, if I had to take a guess, at absolute worst, Earl will be a low Category 3 storm while passing this area. And that's the worst I could imagine, or rather, it's not likely at all. What is likely though, is somewhere between a Mid-Cat 2 to a Cat-1 hurricane (74-110 mph). Or on the other end, could even be a tropical storm by then if something were to really start tearing him apart. But realistically, Cat 1-2 by our area.
I've been trying to explain this to people constantly, whenever it comes up in a conversation. There's a reason why Long Island doesn't get hurricanes, and a reason why when it does, they're weak and cause minimal damage. The basic science behind it is really simple. Middle school stuff. Hurricanes grow off warm ocean water, what we have is colder ocean water. Which is not good food for a hurricane. So it weakens.

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