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Hurricane Earl

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Old
09-02-2010, 12:39 AM
  #26
MugatuNYR
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Does anyone have any better info on this hurricane?






haha just kidding Scott...great stuff, thanks.

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Old
09-02-2010, 12:39 AM
  #27
RyanBozak
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Panfork View Post
I've been trying to explain this to people constantly, whenever it comes up in a conversation. There's a reason why Long Island doesn't get hurricanes, and a reason why when it does, they're weak and cause minimal damage. The basic science behind it is really simple. Middle school stuff. Hurricanes grow off warm ocean water, what we have is colder ocean water. Which is not good food for a hurricane. So it weakens.
Here's some current SST's from wunderground just for clarifying the difference in ocean temps we're talking about

Further south:


Around us:


Once again, everything is hotlinked, so expect them to change.


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09-02-2010, 12:56 AM
  #28
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ScottB, just curious, where do you go to school?

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Old
09-02-2010, 12:59 AM
  #29
RyanBozak
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Kean University.
Hoping to maybe go to Penn State for my masters when I finish my program within the next 2-3 years.

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09-02-2010, 01:17 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
Kean University.
Hoping to maybe go to Penn State for my masters when I finish my program within the next 2-3 years.
Nice. I just finished my master's from UAlbany in Atmospheric Science...I got my bachelor's there too. You must be what, a sophomore? Seems like you already have a pretty good understanding of the atmosphere and are obviously very enthusiastic about the weather!

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09-02-2010, 01:29 AM
  #31
RyanBozak
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Originally Posted by Scooter17 View Post
Nice. I just finished my master's from UAlbany in Atmospheric Science...I got my bachelor's there too. You must be what, a sophomore? Seems like you already have a pretty good understanding of the atmosphere and are obviously very enthusiastic about the weather!
That's awesome! What exactly are you looking into getting into? Broadcasting? Government related? And obviously, if I'm wrong on anything, feel free to correct me. Love learning about this. And thanks!

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09-02-2010, 01:37 AM
  #32
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I'm flying in on saturday afternoon, should I be ******** my pants?

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09-02-2010, 01:47 AM
  #33
RyanBozak
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You'll be fine, unless something drastic changes. Earl will pick up speed quickly as it moves further north. Also, where is flying in?

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09-02-2010, 01:50 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
You'll be fine, unless something drastic changes. Earl will pick up speed quickly as it moves further north. Also, where is flying in?
Neat! Earl's the last thing I need to worry about!
JFK.

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09-02-2010, 01:59 AM
  #35
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Yes, in terms of weather wise, Saturday should be a really nice day. In terms of airport delays/closures due to weather related incidents the day/night before, can't help you there. Just keep an eye out tomorrow here/online and you'll have a much better idea on that.

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09-02-2010, 02:06 AM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick00 View Post
OK that one is downright terrifying (I live in Suffolk).

I've personally been checking in on the NHC's forecasts lately.
I wonder if their "official" track will shift west...

What Category would you expect it to be, in the event that it did make landfall in eastern LI?
Thats actually not so bad for LI. The bright colors you see is just the shading for rainfall. The center of those white contours is where that particular model thinks the center of the storm will be.

I think these 3 images for 2pm Friday, 8pm Friday, and 2am Saturday pretty much summarize the chances of LI taking a direct hit.

2pm Friday


8pm Friday


2am Saturday


It shows the forecast for 20 ensemble members of the GFS model at 8pm Friday night. There are 20 forecasts of the hurricane in this one image, with the center of the hurricane located at the center of each one of those circles for each forecast.

None of those forecasts indicate LI taking a direct hit. I would say the most likely scenario for NJ, NYC, LI is a glancing blow, with tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) along the coast. Probably on the lower end of that, with some higher wind gusts in some of the outer bands of the hurricane. Still nothing to turn your nose up at though.

I don't see the storm surge being a major problem with this hurricane on LI, with winds out of the north. Storm surge might actually be more of a problem on the north side of the island.

The major issues I see with this hurricane for LI are the possibility for heavy rainfall and the damage the waves are going to do along the coast. The beaches will probably be totally destroyed, as even though LI probably won't see hurricane force winds, there will be a pretty strong hurricane not far offshore.

It could be a different story for Nantucket and Cape Cod, with the hurricane likely tracking much closer to those areas.

Now that I've said that, eastern LI will probably take a direct hit, LOL.
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Old
09-02-2010, 02:07 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post

Yes, in terms of weather wise, Saturday should be a really nice day. In terms of airport delays/closures due to weather related incidents the day/night before, can't help you there. Just keep an eye out tomorrow here/online and you'll have a much better idea on that.
Whether it hits us or not, when it is expected to reach us (or pass next to us)?

Early Friday (say rush hour?) or later in the morning?

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09-02-2010, 02:11 AM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post

Yes, in terms of weather wise, Saturday should be a really nice day. In terms of airport delays/closures due to weather related incidents the day/night before, can't help you there. Just keep an eye out tomorrow here/online and you'll have a much better idea on that.
Yup! Well thanks

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Old
09-02-2010, 02:13 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
That's awesome! What exactly are you looking into getting into? Broadcasting? Government related? And obviously, if I'm wrong on anything, feel free to correct me. Love learning about this. And thanks!
Trying to get a job with the NWS or one of the government agencies. I wouldn't mind working for a private company that does research or stuff in wind energy either. Its good you are looking to go to grad school though. Its pretty hard to find anything, other than broadcasting or some crappy paying forecasting job with a private company, without a master's degree.

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09-02-2010, 02:17 AM
  #40
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Figure, if we "are" going to be hit, it's obviously going to be mainly a south - north arrival in terms of any precipitation for the onset, and I'd say as early as Noon-2pm Friday going on later in the day. As (if) Earl starts to pull eastwards, the outflow and banding will be thrown from north to south, so the precipitation shield for many people will vary depending on location. Regardless, this is mainly a Friday afternoon/night time situation, for anyone from NY state south. Again, this is all relative to Earl taking the track that the NWS has put up. Any slight or major deviation from that and we could be talking different times and everything else.

Nice write up, Scooter. And I agree about LI, north shore is more prone to everything, if things work out correctly. And haha, yeah, last sentence is true. Don't remind me of how many times I go out and say something comfortably and the complete opposite happens and I ponder why or how on earth it did. Luckily, I've been getting better at forecasting things since this last winter, so hopefully I wont be seeing that happen much

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Old
09-02-2010, 02:23 AM
  #41
donpaulo
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storms are no frakin joke guys

if it makes land someone, probably a couple of someones will die

then again thats why they have darwin awards

we have a typhoon off the west coast that is headed towards Korea but you never know with mother nature

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09-02-2010, 03:17 AM
  #42
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Well I've been through one of these when I lived in Philly and it rocked the Chesapeake where I was working.. and for the past several years I've lived in Houston so I've dealt with Tropical Storm Allison and Hurricanes Ike, Katrina and Rita... so I can tell you THIS much... it SUCKS but... you'll be fine [mostly]. Get provisions if needed... batten down the hatches... take care of your houses, etc... but you guys shouldnt see it nearly as bad as we have, hahahah. Good luck though, gents!

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09-02-2010, 03:34 AM
  #43
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Thank God for that barrier island filled with Islander fans...Fire Island

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09-02-2010, 03:43 AM
  #44
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Just a quick comment before sleep,
Don't be surprised to see Earl weaken some or moderately over the next 12 hours, looks as if Earl ran into an area of sheer to it's northwest that is tearing apart his outflow and dismantling the NW sector of the eye wall. If the eye wall does infact open, it will be extremely hard for Earl to intensify again as ocean waters will only get cooler and sheer will persistent.
By all means this isn't saying anything to write him off now, because once again, I could be wrong, but just posting my observation from looking at a few things before I head out for the night. I'll give an update whenever i'm up.

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09-02-2010, 06:03 AM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Shat Scar View Post
That'll ruin Drury's weekend.
LOL ... Good stuff

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Old
09-02-2010, 07:40 AM
  #46
hpNYR
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The winter crew has some work to do in September..


Last edited by hpNYR: 09-02-2010 at 07:53 AM.
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Old
09-02-2010, 07:52 AM
  #47
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I have court tomorrow, does this mean I won't have to go?

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Old
09-02-2010, 07:52 AM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
Just a quick comment before sleep,
Don't be surprised to see Earl weaken some or moderately over the next 12 hours, looks as if Earl ran into an area of sheer to it's northwest that is tearing apart his outflow and dismantling the NW sector of the eye wall. If the eye wall does infact open, it will be extremely hard for Earl to intensify again as ocean waters will only get cooler and sheer will persistent.
By all means this isn't saying anything to write him off now, because once again, I could be wrong, but just posting my observation from looking at a few things before I head out for the night. I'll give an update whenever i'm up.
He's done a great job at fighting off dry air. More convections keeps popping up right after dry air kicks in. Still a very healthy fella. The 11am update should be interesting.

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Old
09-02-2010, 07:53 AM
  #49
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I have court tomorrow, does this mean I won't have to go?
I assume it's in the morning, so you'll have to go.

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Old
09-02-2010, 07:54 AM
  #50
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I'd be on my toes if I was right along the border of North Carolina/Virginia, of course the most eastern sections. Northern outer banks/Virginia border is where I expect the significant damage to occur w/ this system.

As far as our area, one hot bed for a good deal of damage to occur is Wildwood, NJ in south shore NJ. I fully expect category 2 or greater wind gusts in that area. Atlantic City is going to get it good too, I can see cat 1-2 gusts in that region as well.

As far as the 5 boros and Li are concerned; I think if you're in the city you approach this by looking at case studies/patterns of the past with systems w /similar tracks. I strongly urge people not to go out of their way to hype this into something bigger than it is. This will need to come fairly close to us-- id say 20 miles inside the benchmark(cape cod) for New York City to see significant wind gusts greater than 55-65 MPH. However, for those that are east of Nassua I can see gusts averaging 50 or greater.

The entire area will see thunder-showers on Fri, w more steadier RAINS the further east you are. Systems like these tend to wobble @ times. Any wobble to the west can change these projections by adding an additional 10mph to each forecast region discussed above. One good news about this is you don't have a strong HP(High Pressure) in Canada, or by the border of Canada/NY State to create a tight gradient for a even more juiced up wind event even if it means the center of circulation is pretty far offshore.

I do expect airport delays up and down the east coast as the day progresses on Fri.

5 Boros : 30 to 35 sustained is possible for a few hours with gusts approaching 50 or greater.

As you progressively head east of there winds will pick up along w the more steadier rain. Peak gust somewhere on eastern LI; I'm going to go with just over 70 mph.

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