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Old
09-17-2010, 09:47 AM
  #51
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I got to watch the young stars tournament this past week between the Sharks, Ducks, Oilers, Flames and Canucks. I got to see some pretty good talent and for obvious reasons, I paid a special attention to the guy who was wearing #72 at the Canucks' blue line.

You can definitely see why he was picked in the first round. Big, tall, good skater, smooth passes (most times). But he's missing something. He doesn't use his body well enough, his positioning isn't great and his decision making is simply lacking too often. And that was in a rookie tournament, so imagine at a higher level!

Having said that, I do believe that he's played well enough to earn a spot somewhere in the AHL but for him to make the NHL? It's a long shot at best.

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09-17-2010, 09:50 AM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal View Post
To me there's no doubt, the Habs problems are both at the draft table and in how they develop their players. Timmins has been able to get a large number of draft picks to the NHL, but at the same time, very few have been impact players and many have struggled at the highest level, which has to be a concern.
not really.

every team has it.

the Canadiens are not special in that regard.

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09-17-2010, 09:59 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Not The One View Post
Yet he just keep on selecting his first-round picks from the US year after year. To date, his "better" picks have been the few not from the US.

It's like an obsession for him.
For people that follow the scouting world closely, the best up and coming programs are the US and Sweden, so it's not a surprise that we have picked a number of US guys. To me I dont care if we only picked guys from Albania, as long as the team is winning

Quote:
Originally Posted by DirtyJeeves View Post
Development is our problem, not drafting.

Fischer shouldn't be included with the other first round "busts". He chose to stay in school because the Habs wouldn't give him a near-max ELC. He gambled and lost. At least we recoup a 2nd out of it.
Drafting is clearly a problem as well, not sure why it wouldn't be.

Fischer should be included with other 1st round busts, he's the very definition of the term, 1st round bust.

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09-17-2010, 10:10 AM
  #54
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For people that follow the scouting world closely, the best up and coming programs are the US and Sweden, so it's not a surprise that we have picked a number of US guys. To me I dont care if we only picked guys from Albania, as long as the team is winning
I'm certainly not an expert on scouting, but what does it matter what program they are from? You're drafting an individual, not a program. Who cares if Zach Parise or Bobby Ryan are from the US. They were not drafted by us and do not play for us. Is Zach Parise being good going to guarantee that Max Pacioretty is going to be a good player?

None of our EIGHT US-based first-round picks in the last decade are stars, and none are playing for us or contributing to our success right now. And, that is not "a number of US guys", that is more first round picks from a specific system than any other NHL team. Nobody is less diverse than the Habs when it comes to first-round picks

There are still a few interesting US-based prospects in our system, and they certainly deserve their chance, but I'm questionning if we aren't going to look back on our 2000's drafting and see the same thing as our 90's WHL "Western Beef" era.

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09-17-2010, 10:33 AM
  #55
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I believe part of the problem is a combination of Timmins focusing to much on athleticism (although i do agree skating is important) and opting to take players who are going the college route.

Due to the cap the NHL is getting younger every year, and the quicker players are able to compete in the league the more competitive your team will be. The CHL is producing more NHL ready players and in a quicker time frame as opposed to the NCAA (ie: Tinordi going the CHL route). This is where the habs should be focusing their scouting efforts for the upcoming years.

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09-17-2010, 10:37 AM
  #56
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Timmins system is great for rounds 2-7 but its obviously a failure for the first round. If I was Gauthier, I'd let Timmons run the draft but I would personally select the first round choice.

I'd take input from him and all the scouts but I'd select the player I wanted, then I'd let him choose all the others.

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09-17-2010, 10:47 AM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Not The One View Post
I'm certainly not an expert on scouting, but what does it matter what program they are from? You're drafting an individual, not a program. Who cares if Zach Parise or Bobby Ryan are from the US. They were not drafted by us and do not play for us. Is Zach Parise being good going to guarantee that Max Pacioretty is going to be a good player?

None of our EIGHT US-based first-round picks in the last decade are stars, and none are playing for us or contributing to our success right now. And, that is not "a number of US guys", that is more first round picks from a specific system than any other NHL team. Nobody is less diverse than the Habs when it comes to first-round picks

There are still a few interesting US-based prospects in our system, and they certainly deserve their chance, but I'm questionning if we aren't going to look back on our 2000's drafting and see the same thing as our 90's WHL "Western Beef" era.
The point is that your going to see a lot of NHL teams drafting more from the US and Sweden, since their programs are on the rise. The Habs are no different, just haven't been picking the right ones, although it's early as the changes to the US program are more recent, as the landscape changed for the '05 draft and it likely takes a few years for it to catch on.

So when you ask why does Timmins keep selecting 1st rounders from the US, it has something to do with the big improvements the US is making in their hockey programs. I'm not saying he only picks guys from the US, or only because it's an up and coming program in the scouting world, just that it's not surprising to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by habsrock76 View Post
I believe part of the problem is a combination of Timmins focusing to much on athleticism (although i do agree skating is important) and opting to take players who are going the college route.

Due to the cap the NHL is getting younger every year, and the quicker players are able to compete in the league the more competitive your team will be. The CHL is producing more NHL ready players and in a quicker time frame as opposed to the NCAA (ie: Tinordi going the CHL route). This is where the habs should be focusing their scouting efforts for the upcoming years.
I don't think the problem is where he's picking his players from. The Habs have not done well in drafting out of the Q and the OHL sans Subban. In the dub there's Price and Chipchura in the 1st round, White, Maxwell, Cepek, isn't looking so great either but that could change if Price turns into a top 10 goalie and White should be a solid 4th liner. I didn't include Gallagher since he was just drafted 3 months ago so it's hard to say what we have there.

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09-17-2010, 10:54 AM
  #58
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The best players right now are coming out of Ontario - bottom line.

The Habs should be focusing their scouting efforts there.

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09-17-2010, 11:04 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by nittany View Post
The best players right now are coming out of Ontario - bottom line.

The Habs should be focusing their scouting efforts there.
Aside from Subban, this decade we've drafted Jason Missiaen, Yannick Weber, Matt D'Agostini, Sergei Kostitsyn, Greg Stewart, Corey Locke, Mark Flood, Tomas Linhart, Ander Deveaux, Eric Himelfarb, Andrew Archer, Tyler Handuck either out of the OHL or they played in the OHL.

Looks like it doesn't matter what league you pick from if you don't pick the right ones.

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09-17-2010, 11:37 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal View Post
Aside from Subban, this decade we've drafted Jason Missiaen, Yannick Weber, Matt D'Agostini, Sergei Kostitsyn, Greg Stewart, Corey Locke, Mark Flood, Tomas Linhart, Ander Deveaux, Eric Himelfarb, Andrew Archer, Tyler Handuck either out of the OHL or they played in the OHL.

Looks like it doesn't matter what league you pick from if you don't pick the right ones.
Agreed, but I think the majority of our scouting efforts are misplaced and we are too heavily occupied in the USHL and HS prep shcool systems. Time to shift the focus to where the majority of NHL'ers are being harvested (OHL & WHL).

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09-17-2010, 11:54 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by DirtyJeeves View Post
Development is our problem, not drafting.

Fischer shouldn't be included with the other first round "busts". He chose to stay in school because the Habs wouldn't give him a near-max ELC. He gambled and lost. At least we recoup a 2nd out of it.
How the heck would we know that for sure? If we don't know as much as them as to which guy we should pick, pretty sure we shouldn't know as much as them as to how develop a player. We fail on both accounts. Kostitsyn wasn't a bad pick because of who he was but because who else was available and the needs we had for specific type of players, needs that EVERYBODY say we should never go for, until Timmins told them that 2006 and 2007 were drafted based on NEEDS and that 2009 we surprisingly ended up going with centermen.....based on needs. Yet, they seemed to have mixed pure talent and hockey player. Not a whole lot of player had Kosty in their top 10. And for whoever mentions that it's because of his illness, does it mean that the Habs are the only team in the whole NHL who have good enough doctors so that this illness wouldn't be a problem?

In 2004, Chipchura was #1 NA prospect in January and 4th NA prospect just prior to the draft. Yet, he ended up #18. And at the time of the draft, clearly Timmins was talking about a good possible 3rd liner. In 2005, Price wasn't suppose to go that soon. In 2006, at best Fischer was a HM on McKenzie list. In 2007, I will not say McDonagh was a mistake. He was scheduled to go around that spot, and if Hickey isn't a surprising #4, McDonagh is probably gone. MaxPac...well it all depends on how you see him. From having seen him in Michigan, I was also convinced (and still am) that he could develop into a power forward top 6. Yet....reports at the time of the draft from scouts were saying that he would NEVER become that and at best a fine 3rd liner at the NHL level.....Who saw it best? 2009, we'll see about Tinordi. Clearly fill a need, we'll see at what level he'll bring it.

So yes, development played a role. But so was drafting. Most teams at least in a 6-7 years period have been able to get a top 6 player up front and/or a top 2 d-man amongst their 1st picks. The ones that didn't.......sucks or were so strong before, they are still surfing on how great they were before. Yes, 1st round isn't the only round in a draft. But the stats shows that this is where you get your game changing players. Thank god some were worried sick about Subban's defensive play and thank god that it didn,t matter to Timmins. But we wouldn't still be competing year after year after year for 8th place if we would have drafted better and developed better.

The draft isn't to get those 3rd line players you can easily acquire through UFA or trade. It's to get the guys nobody wants to send you.

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09-17-2010, 11:59 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by habsrock76 View Post
Agreed, but I think the majority of our scouting efforts are misplaced and we are too heavily occupied in the USHL and HS prep shcool systems. Time to shift the focus to where the majority of NHL'ers are being harvested (OHL & WHL).
The USHL is making big strides to churn out good draft picks, so imo you need to give it time, it's not going to happen over night, but the USHL is headed in the right direction imo.

We can shift to the OHL and Dub or wherever, if you not picking the right players it doesn't matter where you pick them from.

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09-17-2010, 12:07 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
...
The draft isn't to get those 3rd line players you can easily acquire through UFA or trade. It's to get the guys nobody wants to send you.
That's a key to it all IMHO.

Personally, I'm ok with the general idea that you blend everything, which includes probability of making it, character, grit, stuff like that, *along with* upside, and it's therefore perfectly fine if you take a Chipchura or Tinordi in the first round of the draft. Although at a certain point, it's got to be well worth revisiting that philosophy, especially in light of an evaluation of the organizations current assets and recent successes/failures.

The Habs seem to have a lot of solid/decent prospects, great depth in that sense. Maybe some would argue this, but Subban seems to be the only real "bluechip" prospect who we can somewhat realistically hope for some level of "stardom" out of.

Maybe going for the towering shutdown defender is good some years. Trading up to get it, instead of taking two swings at the fences this year in particular... well, I think it's clear the Habs *could have* drafted 2 players with those picks who would get the HFBoards hype-juices flowing a bit more in the years to come, anyway.

It's a fair question to ask, anyway. I don't feel like I have a strong opinion either way myself.

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09-17-2010, 12:41 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by montreal View Post
Aside from Subban, this decade we've drafted Jason Missiaen, Yannick Weber, Matt D'Agostini, Sergei Kostitsyn, Greg Stewart, Corey Locke, Mark Flood, Tomas Linhart, Ander Deveaux, Eric Himelfarb, Andrew Archer, Tyler Handuck either out of the OHL or they played in the OHL.

Looks like it doesn't matter what league you pick from if you don't pick the right ones.
None of those guys are high picks (aside from Linhart)...that's the point.

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09-17-2010, 12:43 PM
  #65
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At the time i remember wanting either Sanguinetti , Berglund or Stewart and was shocked when we traded down to pick Fischer. As i said before if we wanted him i'm pretty sure that he would still have been available in the 2nd or 3rd so i didn't understand what was the rush to pick him so early and still don't to this day. Suffice to say that aside from Sanguinetti and even then (who is still much closer to the NHL than Fischer will possibly ever be) , the other 2 guys would have been much better picks,

The Fischer pick was possibly the worst move Timmins made since he's head scout. All i can say is thank god for the 2nd round pick.

Quote:
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Would he break the Hamilton top-6?
No

I doubt he would break the Nailers top 6 as well.


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09-17-2010, 01:02 PM
  #66
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The guys saying they don't understand why we drafted him are ludicrous.

6'4 Dman who skates like the wind and just won the Mr. Hockey award.

Why wouldn't we pick him? And as others said, we had jack in our dman prospect cupboard.

This is the only first rounder Timmins has picked who isn't playing or hasn't played in the NHL: Kostitsyn, Chipchura, Price, McDonagh, Pacioretty. That's a 5/6=83.3% success rate. I dare you to find better with the positions he's had. And let's not forget the absolute STEALS he got us in the other rounds: Halak (9th), Grabovski (5th), Streit (9th), Kostitsyn (7th), Subban (2nd). That's one steal PER YEAR!!

Move on people, the future is bright and the draft position only matters on paper. It's completely meaningless on the ice.

We've made the post-season 5 times in the last 6 years (and the only miss by 1 point in the final game), been past the 1st round 3 times, past the 2nd round once. Compare this with the previous 10 years before Timmins and Gainey got here. Yeah.

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09-17-2010, 01:24 PM
  #67
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Was it bad scouting or did this guy tank his own career?

If it was scouting, besides the fact that it was the first year that the NHL could draft USHSL players and this guy was the most outstanding of his graduation class.... that experiment was a truly failed experiment.

If it was just the player not delivering what he could.... well... it sure sucks when someone pisses away their future.

I hope he stayed in school and has good grades, otherwise he will be sharpening skates in some local rink in Minny.

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09-17-2010, 01:25 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by kernkraft View Post
This is the only first rounder Timmins has picked who isn't playing or hasn't played in the NHL: Kostitsyn, Chipchura, Price, McDonagh, Pacioretty. That's a 5/6=83.3% success rate. I dare you to find better with the positions he's had. And let's not forget the absolute STEALS he got us in the other rounds: Halak (9th), Grabovski (5th), Streit (9th), Kostitsyn (7th), Subban (2nd). That's one steal PER YEAR!!
Kostitsyn: Worst player in our top-6, horrible playoffs last year. Many stars drafted after him in the first round.
Chipchura: Traded. Horrible year with the Habs, upside of a below-average 4th liner.
Price: 5th choice overall, horrible year last season, rode the pine in the playoffs.
McDonagh: Traded. Hasn't played an NHL game yet.
Pacioretty: Could not stick with the Habs yet. Pedestrian stats in AHL and NHL.

If that spells success for you, we don't have the same standards. Now about those steals...

Halak: Traded
Grabovski: Traded
Streit: Not resigned.
Kostitsyn: Traded
Subban: The exception.

Only one of those players has any chance of making an impact with the team this year. All the others were deemed expendable. That is a pretty dismal record if you ask me.

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09-17-2010, 01:30 PM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
How the heck would we know that for sure? If we don't know as much as them as to which guy we should pick, pretty sure we shouldn't know as much as them as to how develop a player. We fail on both accounts. Kostitsyn wasn't a bad pick because of who he was but because who else was available and the needs we had for specific type of players, needs that EVERYBODY say we should never go for, until Timmins told them that 2006 and 2007 were drafted based on NEEDS and that 2009 we surprisingly ended up going with centermen.....based on needs. Yet, they seemed to have mixed pure talent and hockey player. Not a whole lot of player had Kosty in their top 10. And for whoever mentions that it's because of his illness, does it mean that the Habs are the only team in the whole NHL who have good enough doctors so that this illness wouldn't be a problem?

In 2004, Chipchura was #1 NA prospect in January and 4th NA prospect just prior to the draft. Yet, he ended up #18. And at the time of the draft, clearly Timmins was talking about a good possible 3rd liner. In 2005, Price wasn't suppose to go that soon. In 2006, at best Fischer was a HM on McKenzie list. In 2007, I will not say McDonagh was a mistake. He was scheduled to go around that spot, and if Hickey isn't a surprising #4, McDonagh is probably gone. MaxPac...well it all depends on how you see him. From having seen him in Michigan, I was also convinced (and still am) that he could develop into a power forward top 6. Yet....reports at the time of the draft from scouts were saying that he would NEVER become that and at best a fine 3rd liner at the NHL level.....Who saw it best? 2009, we'll see about Tinordi. Clearly fill a need, we'll see at what level he'll bring it.

So yes, development played a role. But so was drafting. Most teams at least in a 6-7 years period have been able to get a top 6 player up front and/or a top 2 d-man amongst their 1st picks. The ones that didn't.......sucks or were so strong before, they are still surfing on how great they were before. Yes, 1st round isn't the only round in a draft. But the stats shows that this is where you get your game changing players. Thank god some were worried sick about Subban's defensive play and thank god that it didn,t matter to Timmins. But we wouldn't still be competing year after year after year for 8th place if we would have drafted better and developed better.

The draft isn't to get those 3rd line players you can easily acquire through UFA or trade. It's to get the guys nobody wants to send you.
Nailed it WS, I agree, personally I believe that we should draft in the early rounds, from US, OHL, WHL, Q, places like that, and then starting in the 3-4th round you go to Europe, obviously if there's prospects that you'd prefer at earlier rounds go for them, but I find in the late rounds you can draft potential gems much more frequently out of Russia, or Sweden rather than NA.


Last edited by JHabs: 09-17-2010 at 01:41 PM.
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09-17-2010, 01:31 PM
  #70
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Good thing he finished college.

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09-17-2010, 01:52 PM
  #71
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I'd be curious to see what percerage if 1st round players actually play a game in the NHL and also one for played but less than say 20 games. I think the number would shock moat people here who think a 1st round player is a slam dunk NHLer.

Bottom line is Fischer HAD a boat load of potential which is what scouts are looking for when looking at 17 year olds as there's nothing else to judge them on. To blast a scout if the player doesn't pan out is a little silly to me as it's basically a higher percentage crap shoot. If it happened ALL with all the picks then i'd be concerned. This is not the case with Timmins. Maybe with the scouts on the ground but theyve mostly been replaced so we'll see if we can improve an already good scouting program.

It still would have been cool to have a Fischer-Price on our team though I'll settle for a great Price!

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09-17-2010, 02:20 PM
  #72
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name me one team in the nhl to never have a first round draft pick bust in the last 10 years.
Maybe the Leafs?? I don't think they picked any first rounders though ahahhaha

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09-17-2010, 02:34 PM
  #73
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I'm a lifetime HABS & OLYMPIQUES hockey fan who had the privilege to see Giroux first-hand throughout his amazing junior career.
Timmins saw the same thing as I and was still stubborn enough to pick Fischer.
Thank you Mr. Timmins.


Last edited by Lucky Luke: 09-17-2010 at 02:40 PM.
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09-17-2010, 03:03 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by Joe Cole View Post
Was it bad scouting or did this guy tank his own career?

If it was scouting, besides the fact that it was the first year that the NHL could draft USHSL players and this guy was the most outstanding of his graduation class.... that experiment was a truly failed experiment.
Fischer admitted he didn't work hard enough when he was at college, so I blame him moreso then the scouts. With the change to drafting kids out of the USHS in '05 your going to see more hits and misses since it used to be you couldn't draft a kid until after his freshman year (ala Higgins/Komisarek/Hainsey etc) so now your forced to pick them sooner while they are playing against much weaker competition so it's much bigger gamble now.

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09-17-2010, 03:04 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by Lucky Luke View Post
I'm a lifetime HABS & OLYMPIQUES hockey fan who had the privilege to see Giroux first-hand throughout his amazing junior career.
Timmins saw the same thing as I and was still stubborn enough to pick Fischer.
Thank you Mr. Timmins.
Me too.

And he is from Ontario, on top of that .

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