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09-19-2010, 06:03 AM
  #101
Whitesnake
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
I think the point is that you have relatively narrow odds no matter what you do, so yes, it IS a gamble. If it wasn't you wouldn't pick Fischer and end up being wrong. And every team gets their share of Fischers. Maybe you're at 30% in general. Higher in the 1st, higher the further up you go. But it's still odds. And it seems like scouting and camps and training and all the evaluations and interviews only gives you a modest edge. Maybe if you're the best in the business you get a 5% boost in a given tier over your competitors? 35% instead of 30% odds? And if you just pick names at random off the CSB list, you don't do too much worse. So yeah, it's a gamble.

But there are some poker players who do better than others, right? Poker is a gamble too. Knowing the odds helps.
But like I said, everything is then a gamble. Martin might juggle his lines and be wrong 7 out of 10 times, Gauthier and Gainey in their trades, everything they do are gambles as well etc. My point about not believing in it is not to not understand that you can be sure of everything. Of course, they all think it will turn great for them and it might actually do or don't. What I don't believe it is using it to exclude those people from being judged. And this is the feeling I get around here. Timmins will have a job for life based on the fact that it's a gamble. Yet, we have no problem firing coaches and GM's while most of their decisions are also gambles to begin with.

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09-19-2010, 07:55 AM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
But like I said, everything is then a gamble. Martin might juggle his lines and be wrong 7 out of 10 times, Gauthier and Gainey in their trades, everything they do are gambles as well etc. My point about not believing in it is not to not understand that you can be sure of everything. Of course, they all think it will turn great for them and it might actually do or don't. What I don't believe it is using it to exclude those people from being judged. And this is the feeling I get around here. Timmins will have a job for life based on the fact that it's a gamble. Yet, we have no problem firing coaches and GM's while most of their decisions are also gambles to begin with.
Not sure I get this. There is a little more that Gauthier and Martin can directly do to affect the performance of the team. I don't know that Timmins can do as much, not directly. He picks an 18-year old out of high school and then things are really hard for him to control after that one decision. Whereas Martin can put out a line. Then change it. Then change it again. Gauthier can sign a player. Then trade him. Then sign somebody else. Then buy somebody out. Then change his coach. Etc.

I don't think you can exclude Timmins from criticism even then. But the point is that it has to be based on a true evaluation of his body of work, with respect to his peers and the scouting environment in general, and I just really find that most people don't do that. Not in a rigourous fashion, anyway. People cherrypick examples, but that isn't a valid basis for evaluation. The other complicating factor is that you need at least a 5-year separation from the picks in order to make the evaluations, and people don't like to wait for that either, nor does Timmins have a very large body of work (with us) outside of that window.

The element of "gamble" dominates the evaluation of Timmins' draft record IMHO. It's just a statistical reality... because even if you zero in on the relatively small sample of his work that can be evaluated at this point, the margins are narrow enough that a single draft can affect the statistics significantly. To the extent that, to me, the evaluation of his performance is something that actually we aren't qualified to do. Just looking at the draft record is actually NOT the way to evaluate him. Not solely, anyway. You'd probably have to do it from more of a corporate management perspective. Does his philosophy mesh with the organization, does he have the training and background, does his department run smoothly, on time and on budget, does he get along with his staff, all of that stuff is something we don't know anything about. If his results are at least in line with the industry standards, and he excels in all those other areas, then he gets the passing grade.

A pure evaluation of draft record is just too ambiguous to go on by itself. That's all we have. And for the most part, I think we make incomplete and premature evaluations even of that. We don't understand the nature of the business well enough for our criticisms to mean much. It doesn't mean we shouldn't make them, because we're just fans and that's what we're here to do. It's all a fun game for us, in the end. I'm not dismissing it on that basis. I get paid the big bucks after all because we exist and engage in that activity here! Just saying that *IF* we want to try to really try to dig deeper, we shouldn't fool ourselves that we're actually going to come up with anything profound by doing so. We're fundamentally limited. There probably are extremes where you can say, purely based on subjective evaluations of the draft record, that a given NHL scouting department is excelling or conversely doing terrible. But that's a VERY small number of NHL departments I'd say. And the Habs aren't in that group as debates on this subject here constantly show. It's not clear. And there's a limit to the clarity we can achieve. I'm content to just let it be a "gamble".

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09-19-2010, 11:24 AM
  #103
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When I read your post, I wanted to disagree with you. So I looked at hockeydb. The truth is that the Habs have done okay in the 1st round. Some teams have been mediocre, while others have been awful except for having drafted one or two elite players, usually with a top pick.

The teams that have done well tend to be the ones that have had many picks. LA has done well, but that's with 11 1st round picks since 2003 (not including 2010), three of them in the top 5 and only two of them lower than 13th. Wash has 12 picks, also three in the top 5, but they managed to find 4 roster players (including Green) picking between 18th and 30th.

I think the perception of Habs 1st rounders, as a group, is one of disappointment because there hasn't been a real star (yet). If you have Ryan, Perry and Getzlaf and a bunch of ... others after 9 picks since 2003, you can say, "Well, you win some and you lose some." Getting Myers at 12th lets you content yourself with Stafford at 13th and forget Zagrapan altogether. Even drafting a Parise, if not much else (so far), seems to be a better deal. How many future 1st round picks would you give up for him?

I've always held that it is reasonable to expect a 1st round pick to become a roster player. But now I don't think that's realistic. The only team that comes anywhere close to that standard is Philly, with 6 1st round picks since 2003 -- not one miss, and that's picking everywhere from 2nd overall to 29th.
For me I don't care about what other teams have or haven't done at the draft, I want the Habs to win and have success everywhere. Granted I know that's not possible or realistic but then again I'm just a fan on a message board.

Ask yourself this, are you happy with the group of Kostitsyn, Chipchura, Price, Fischer, McDonagh and Pacioretty? That's going back 4-7 years, 6 picks over 5 drafts and within two years 2 of them are traded and one we walked away from. That leaves Kosty/Price/Pac and McDonagh turned into Gomez/Pyatt. Not talking about what other teams did or what stats will say how many draft picks will make the NHL. Just flat out are you happy with the group that has become Kosty/Price/Pac and Gomez. Some will be since you have the potential to have a top notch goalie, a possible 25-30 goal scorer, hopefully a decent 3rd line PF and Gomez has been good for us for sure. While others will have concerns based off different reasons, some good some off base.

Kostitsyn- he's scored 64 goals in his first 3 seasons, or an average of just over 21 goals a year, despite missing 35 games or an average of just over 11 games a year. So it not like he sucks, he has become a favorite whipping boy, but the fact is, he does put the puck in the net as we are short on 20+ goal scorers. So not a brutal in the context of his production, but when you look at what we could of had, it could be a huge difference to the makeup of this team. Then people will look at how he played in the playoffs and how badly we got our ass kicked by the flyers due to having no secondary scoring at all. You can see why people aren't happy with the pick, that said if he can get back on track, and find the back of the net 25-30 times, I'm sure people would turn more positive towards him and the pick.

Chipchura- we got 4 goals, 14 pts in 68 games plus a 4th round pick perhaps in the 95 to 105th range. Granted Eric Chouinard at 16th overall in '98 turned into Max Lappierre but that took some 8 years before we saw any impact at the NHL level, though hopefully they can grab something good with the pick, it's safe to say it was a bust. Its' too bad cause I still think Chipchura will be a solid NHLer, funny that he put up more goals in 55 games with the Ducks then he did in the 3 years with the Habs.

Price- He's the one that could really save things when it comes to our 1st round draft picks. He just turned 23 and yet he's already go 123 NHL games under his belt and 60 wins, he's faced over 4000 NHL shots by the age of 22 so that's got to pay dividends at some point. Then again if your picking 5th overall, something the Habs last did in 1984, you got to get it right. I happen to think Price is going to be very good one day, but I also know that if he's not, we are in big trouble as everything is riding on him for the most part (unless of course our offense somehow morfs into the '80's oilers or '70's Habs) I expect Price to someday be a top 10 goalie so I can't really fault the pick as it's more how he's been handled and some off ice concerns. While his gaa is a little high for his career to date, a .912 save % I consider that impressive for playing in the NHL at 20 to 22 yeard old.

Fischer- Every team is going to make mistakes at the draft table and Timmins is in the same boat, he can't get every pick right. I don't really care that Fischer busted, it just looks bad when you have two busts in Fischer/Chipchura, three 1st round picks traded in 3 years (Chipchura/McDonagh/'08) and the three that are left, Kostitsyn has been so inconsistent in his efforts, Price has gone from loved to hated and back again and Pacioretty has not been very effective in his NHL production with 25 pts in 86 games.

McDonagh- I liked the pick then and I like it now, glad we got Gomer and Pyatt but sucks we had to lose McDo who I think will be a solid D in the NHL.

Pacioretty- Hard to say what he have from him, he did so well in the USHL and NCAA although for only a year in each, it's too bad that injuries and being rushed to the NHL have hampered him so far. It's still way to early to saw what we will get out of his pick but you can see why fans are concerned as he has struggled in the NHL just like the rest of our 1st rounders.


Personally if people are happy with our 1st round picks, great, but I'm sure everyone can at least see why others are not. No one knows the future, so a lot can change in the future. Some great goaltending from Price, more consistent play and goal scoring from Kostitsyn and right there you will have better results. But after the last two seasons, I think fans have earned the right to be concerned about the impact our 1st round picks have had to date, not counting the most recent picks, not just blaming the scouts but also management for how they were developed.

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09-19-2010, 02:08 PM
  #104
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one of the worst pick in the history of the NHL, 20th overall and will never be good enough to be an AHLer...

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09-19-2010, 02:11 PM
  #105
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one of the worst pick in the history of the NHL, 20th overall and will never be good enough to be an AHLer...
HUGH JESSIMAN

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09-19-2010, 02:17 PM
  #106
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one of the worst pick in the history of the NHL, 20th overall and will never be good enough to be an AHLer...
Claude Gauthier

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09-19-2010, 02:30 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by No Team Needed View Post
HUGH JESSIMAN

Hugh jessiman is atleast good enough to play in the AHL

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09-19-2010, 02:32 PM
  #108
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Ryan O'Marra, etc...

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09-19-2010, 08:10 PM
  #109
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I thought it deserved its own thread.....for now. For whoever likes to follow ex-habs but especially him 'cause of how he was followed all these years, David Fischer, who got a tryout at the Vancouver rookie camp, was released after the tournament they played that ended today.

I was talking to some 'Nucks fans who came away really unimpressed by him.....as we all were. We'll see what's coming next for Top Titty....

http://canucks.nhl.com/club/news.htm...id=DL|VAN|home
Whitesnake,

No offense, but are you over-looking something?

Seems to me that Trevor Timmins and BobGainey were impressed enough with the guy to spend a first round draft pick on him............make that first (1st) round!

I don't know about you, but this is just 1 example of what encourages me as a fan and why I have such high hopes for the Habs as an organization!



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Old
09-19-2010, 08:36 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by LMFAO View Post
one of the worst pick in the history of the NHL, 20th overall and will never be good enough to be an AHLer...
don't push it...there was a lot of bad pick in NHL history...and it's not like he was selected in the top 10 where players should at least become decent...

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09-19-2010, 11:45 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by LMFAO View Post
one of the worst pick in the history of the NHL, 20th overall and will never be good enough to be an AHLer...
You know this how?

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09-20-2010, 08:10 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan View Post
don't push it...there was a lot of bad pick in NHL history...and it's not like he was selected in the top 10 where players should at least become decent...
To me one of the worst aspects of the Fischer pick is more the "buzz" from the combine and the lead-up to the draft. It didn't seem like it was just one or two kooks coming up with something random. I tend to trust Gare Joyce and read his stuff after the fact, but even in the days leading up there were many others, basically raving over how terrible Fischer had come off. His stock sure seemed to be in for a big drop. Teams had him marked as No Draft. He's kind of a special case of draft failure, perhaps.

Every team misses some guys. Or has injuries affect their development. Or you can argue whether or not it's smart to take a player who mostly projects as a character/depth guy like Chipchura or Tinordi instead of a player who has higher perceived upside.

But there are other cases which leap off the page more to me. Fischer is one, based on all that lead-up. I never saw him play before the draft of course. Hardly ever since, even. Or in the case of the Chouinard pick, I *had* watched him play and just did not understand the pick relative to other players I had also watched play. That's one that I just couldn't believe professional scouts couldn't see. Maybe we all have different ones of those, but I didn't feel very unique in that feeling, it seemed to be a popular sentiment at the time too.

Some busts are worse than others in terms of holding them against the scouting dept, is basically what I'm saying. And even then, there's so much subjectivity in making that peanut gallery evaluation. Still, the Fischer case sort of stands out to me. Even other "busts" like Jessiman at least get signed to a contract, say. They fail to make it after a few years of trying. O'Marra, perhaps. But it's more rare for them to just be let go unsigned. That's like "epic bust" for a 1st rounder. And there really aren't so many of those around.

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09-20-2010, 08:44 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by LMFAO View Post
Hugh jessiman is atleast good enough to play in the AHL
So? Whether he's playing in the AHL or in Ethiopia doesn't impact the NHL team, so why does it even matter where he is?

A slightly better bust is still a bust, no matter how you slice it.

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09-20-2010, 09:19 AM
  #114
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one of the worst pick in the history of the NHL, 20th overall and will never be good enough to be an AHLer...
Do you happen to study drama in school? Fischer's not even the worst Habs pick, let along the entire NHL.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/t...r00006929.html,

start at '98 and work your way down, you should find several examples of worse picks then Fischer.

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A slightly better bust is still a bust, no matter how you slice it.
I don't know, some guys like bigger busts then others.

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09-20-2010, 09:23 AM
  #115
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I don't know, some guys like bigger busts then others.
Heyooo!

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09-20-2010, 10:16 AM
  #116
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I haven't looked it up but I vaguely remember that the Habs traded down in the draft before selecting Fischer. Didn't they get another lower round pick in the process? If so, who was that pick? Also, the Habs will get a second rounder as compensation for not signing Fischer.

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09-20-2010, 10:26 AM
  #117
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I haven't looked it up but I vaguely remember that the Habs traded down in the draft before selecting Fischer. Didn't they get another lower round pick in the process? If so, who was that pick? Also, the Habs will get a second rounder as compensation for not signing Fischer.
The Habs traded down with the Sharks from 16th to 20th, for the 53rd overall pick, which they used to pick Mathieu Carle. The Habs will now get the 50th overall pick in June.

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09-20-2010, 10:32 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Blind Gardien View Post
Still, the Fischer case sort of stands out to me. Even other "busts" like Jessiman at least get signed to a contract, say. They fail to make it after a few years of trying. O'Marra, perhaps. But it's more rare for them to just be let go unsigned. That's like "epic bust" for a 1st rounder. And there really aren't so many of those around.
montreal offered him a contract and he turned it down because he wanted to stay in college. he never got another contract offer after that. hence the 50th overall pick.

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09-20-2010, 12:05 PM
  #119
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montreal offered him a contract and he turned it down because he wanted to stay in college. he never got another contract offer after that. hence the 50th overall pick.
As I said, he is a rare case of bustdom, bustier than the usual bust.

Still, I wonder if the team would have signed him if the #50 pick wasn't available? Suppose it was sign him or get nothing... do they sign him? Small amount of mud in the water there. But he still stands out.

Thing is, it should be possible for us to acknowledge how his case stands out, while still casting no overall aspersions on the performance of the staff, or on Timmins' overall competency, etc. I don't know who you think is the greatest scouting director in history. Suppose it was David Conte, say. Suppose he took this kid Adrian Foster as a late-1st gamble when everybody was marking him down due to not playing. Etc. The nature of the beast is that EVERYBODY makes mistakes. It's why it IS a gamble. Doesn't mean that Fischer wasn't a bust, or even an especially busty bust. The 50th pick in 2011 or Mathieu Carle's pick doesn't really factor into it. The pick was still the wrong one, and its wrongness was magnified by many people in the business seemingly believing AT THE TIME that it was the wrong one. That's rarer.

I still like the overall job that the Habs are doing at the draft table, however. I was not really promoting anybody in that draft myself. Maybe Wishart. But without my usual conviction. The book is not closed yet, but Fischer and Persson might be the only ones who don't at least play a game in the NHL? A couple guys in the 2nd round didn't get signed, but maybe nobody else in the 1st?

Out of a field of let's say 10 projected 1st round draft "busts" in 2006, Fischer is probably the bustiest.

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09-20-2010, 12:09 PM
  #120
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Wait, we got a second pick for him?

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09-20-2010, 12:24 PM
  #121
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Wait, we got a second pick for him?
We got two 2nd round picks for him. At the time of the draft we traded down from 16th to 20th and got an extra 2nd round pick (Carle) and because Fischer was offered a contract and refused to sign it we got a 2nd round pick (20th overall pick plus 30 places down = 50th overall pick in this year's draft).

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