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Preseason Bill Guerin thread.. (Post #405 Guerin Released)

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Old
09-24-2010, 02:12 PM
  #126
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
To a great degree, because Sidney Crosby sat down last summer and decided HE was going to score more goals... which he then went about doing. Just like when he decided to improve on draws.

Tough to score a lot of goals when your linemate decides he's going to start cashing in more.

Crosby scored 1.68 goals/60minutes last year of 5 on 5 play. It had been 1.16 goals/60 minutes the year before.

Crosby's primary assists last year were 1.14/60 minutes. Dropping from 1.31/60 minutes.

Now, before you simply blame Guerin for that... he also took the most shots of his career (what he specifically worked on).

There are other factors afoot...

Is Guerin the player he once was? Certainly not. But saying, "Oh, he was with Crosby..." doesn't necessarily work as some great critique of his goal scoring. Crosby spent the summer working on his shot and then spent the season proving it to the league. He was 5th in the league in SOG last year, and 19th in missed shots. He was putting the puck towards goal... a lot. The year before he was 39th in SOG, and 58th in missed shots.



There ya go.

I watched a lot of Carcillo *ing glorious chances from Richards last year... would rather see someone with Guerin's shot on the other side of the pass, frankly. Doesn't mean it will work out.
I know all of this.

It doesn't mean that Guerin shouldn't get ANY points.

If Crosby decided he was going to improve his shot and shoot to score more, then his linemates SHOULD pick up a noticeable boost in assists.

If Crosby's increase in goals didn't translate to an increase in assists and higher point totals for Guerin (which it really didn't), that means Guerin just wasn't involved in the play...which is certainly in line with his lack of speed and being out of the play right now.

Correct me if I'm wrong, because I may very well be, but were you the person saying that more scoring depth should produce higher point totals across the board for the Flyers this year in terms of primary and secondary assists being increased?

Well, that same theory sort of applies here. If Crosby scores more goals, the people around him should be getting more assists too. And Guerin didn't.

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09-24-2010, 02:14 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Shadow Flyer View Post
You're reaching. You are now blaming Crosby for Guerin scoring 10 even strength goals.

Ya know, maybe Crosby realized that Guerin could no longer accept a pass without ****ing it up, and figured he had to score more goals because Guerin simply couldn't. And since Guerin was playing alongside Crosby all the time, where are his even strength assists?

But I agree, it probably makes more sense to blame Crosby for working on his shot, so I stand corrected.
Not really reaching... you're asking why he wasn't scoring all these even strength goals... well, because Crosby was scoring those goals. It's hard for lines to accommodate multiple trigger men with everyone getting theirs

So, without knowing that Guerin would be on his line, Crosby spent all summer working on improving his shot (which had been the one real "weakness" in his offensive game) and publicly spoke about it... and then came in and just torched the league... registering his first 50-goal season, all while shooting at a 17.1% rate (also the highest of his career). The ONLY player in the league that registered a higher shooting % than Crosby with 200+ shots was Stamkos at 17.2%.

Guerin had .31 assists/game last year... .03 off his career average. He's never been an assist guy.

Of course, I'm not the one treating a 21-24-45 season like a turd sandwich. I don't care who you're playing with, that's not terrible. This league ain't that easy to play in.

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09-24-2010, 02:22 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Not really reaching... you're asking why he wasn't scoring all these even strength goals... well, because Crosby was scoring those goals. It's hard for lines to accommodate multiple trigger men with everyone getting theirs

So, without knowing that Guerin would be on his line, Crosby spent all summer working on improving his shot (which had been the one real "weakness" in his offensive game) and publicly spoke about it... and then came in and just torched the league... registering his first 50-goal season, all while shooting at a 17.1% rate (also the highest of his career). The ONLY player in the league that registered a higher shooting % than Crosby with 200+ shots was Stamkos at 17.2%.

Guerin had .31 assists/game last year... .03 off his career average. He's never been an assist guy.
At this point, it's pretty clear you would like to see Guerin on this roster because, for whatever reason, you believe he's an upgrade. I know you know your **** when it comes to hockey, and I know you watch alot of hockey, but I'm having a hard time believing you've watched Guerin over this past year and are advocating that he would be an offensive upgrade.

The year before last, Guerin had all of 16 even strength goals. That's about his best case scenario at this point, and given his deficiencies in pretty much every other area of the ice, I'm having a hard time wrapping my brain around you advocating bringing him onto the team.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Of course, I'm not the one treating a 21-24-45 season like a turd sandwich. I don't care who you're playing with, that's not terrible. This league ain't that easy to play in.
Again, only 10 of those goals and 27 of those points were at even strength. We aren't, or shouldn't be bringing Guerin in for his PP prowess.

Guerin had to get major ice time, alongside the best player in the world (who apparently shoots too much), with significant PP time to put up those numbers. Not a turd of a season, but nothing that suggests he will be any help to this roster. That's before you get into every other area of the ice, where he provides literally nothing.

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09-24-2010, 02:31 PM
  #129
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guerin is not recchi. they are not clones, or identical twins. one has shown an ability to be effective, even in playoffs. the other was garbage for a season.

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09-24-2010, 02:35 PM
  #130
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Guerin should be sent to Siberia and be fed to the polar bears. Just repeating in case someone missed.

Because that's the ****ing absolute truth and only damn part Flyers should have with Guerin is to laugh at Pens' last season's earlier exit in the playoffs than Flyers.

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09-24-2010, 02:37 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by CptCannon View Post
Guerin should be sent to Siberia and be fed to the polar bears. Just repeating in case someone missed.

Because that's the ****ing absolute truth and only damn part Flyers should have with Guerin is to laugh at Pens' last season's earlier exit in the playoffs than Flyers.
And the Pens can then proceed to laugh at the year before...

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09-24-2010, 02:42 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Garbage Goal View Post
That kind of attitude, that you just exemplified in your post, is exactly why I've been ignoring you.

I've been on message boards long enough and around people long enough to know that there's people you should take seriously and people you shouldn't take seriously. Guess what category I've put you in.
Have you read the crap you spew? Seriously, do you actually read what you right and you think I write like I know it all? Please, get a grip Francis.

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09-24-2010, 02:47 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
guerin is not recchi. they are not clones, or identical twins. one has shown an ability to be effective, even in playoffs. the other was garbage for a season.
Look at the points and goals, totally equal. Look at the playoffs, Guerin had 15pts in 24 games during the Cup run and 9 points in 11 games last season. Next.

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09-24-2010, 02:58 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Have you read the crap you spew? Seriously, do you actually read what you right and you think I write like I know it all? Please, get a grip Francis.
I'm not even sure if I should be insulted or not.

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09-24-2010, 03:11 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Shadow Flyer View Post
At this point, it's pretty clear you would like to see Guerin on this roster because, for whatever reason, you believe he's an upgrade. I know you know your **** when it comes to hockey, and I know you watch alot of hockey, but I'm having a hard time believing you've watched Guerin over this past year and are advocating that he would be an offensive upgrade.

The year before last, Guerin had all of 16 even strength goals. That's about his best case scenario at this point, and given his deficiencies in pretty much every other area of the ice, I'm having a hard time wrapping my brain around you advocating bringing him onto the team.
I'm not advocating for anything necessarily. I'm advocating against knee-jerk claims of awfulness. Especially when he hasn't even signed a contract. If Lavi wants him, then Lavi wants him. If Lavi doesn't want him, he doesn't want him. If Homer gives him anything more than a cheap, 1-year deal I'd be pissed.

I actually think he's a massive ****** and wish he wasn't here. Haven't liked him ever since he tried to decapitate a rookie in camp for the Stars. However, that's completely independent from the actual hockey aspect.


Quote:
Again, only 10 of those goals and 27 of those points were at even strength. We aren't, or shouldn't be bringing Guerin in for his PP prowess.

Guerin had to get major ice time, alongside the best player in the world (who apparently shoots too much), with significant PP time to put up those numbers. Not a turd of a season, but nothing that suggests he will be any help to this roster. That's before you get into every other area of the ice, where he provides literally nothing.
Guerin's goals/60 minutes last year: 0.60.

Players with lower goals/60 minutes on the Flyers last year:
Ville Leino 0.48
Claude Giroux 0.48
Scott Hartnell 0.36

And Dan Carcillo had some nice goals last year, but there's no way around the fact that he only provided 22 points. He neutered a lot more potential goals than he helped create.

Mike Richards GFON/60 last year was 2.34. The year before it was 3.06, and the year before that it was 3.06 again. Now, some of that was Gagne struggling with injuries, but some of it was you were sticking a guy with a very limited set of offensive skills on his wing for a solid chunk of his time on the ice.

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09-24-2010, 03:16 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
guerin is not recchi. they are not clones, or identical twins. one has shown an ability to be effective, even in playoffs. the other was garbage for a season.
Guerin had 24 pts in 35 playoff games with the Pens... it's actually dead on his career average for PPG. He also has yet to register a season below .50 PPG...

If Guerin doesn't play for us, he'll probably get a gig somewhere else in the league if he's willing to go to a team.

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09-24-2010, 03:16 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Garbage Goal View Post
I'm not even sure if I should be insulted or not.
Nah, just be able to have a discussion without getting your skirt all in a ruffle.

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09-24-2010, 03:18 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Look at the points and goals, totally equal. Look at the playoffs, Guerin had 15pts in 24 games during the Cup run and 9 points in 11 games last season. Next.
You gonna need to look at how they both played, not just stats. Its not even close between Recchi and Guerin. Recchi has still showed he has the speed and smarts to play. Guerin is slow...very slow. I dont know how you can disagree with that.

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09-24-2010, 03:30 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
You gonna need to look at how they both played, not just stats. Its not even close between Recchi and Guerin. Recchi has still showed he has the speed and smarts to play. Guerin is slow...very slow. I dont know how you can disagree with that.
How they would be using Guerin he does not have to have JvR or Giroux speed. He needs to know where to be on the ice to be effective. If you look at the roster from last year Guerin basically replaces Asham. No one ever called Asham the fastest skater on the ice and with Guerin you actually get an upgrade with his ability to score, this is proven by the facts that he has goal totals around the 20 mark or better for his career. Guerin will need to play around the net, and play a positionally sound game, these are his strengths.

Guerin and Recchi are different types of player too, I am not going to say that Guerin is going to burn it up and down the ice but you will see him have the ability to play a smart game and put himself in a position to convert his chances much moreso than any other option Laviolette has during preseason. Just my speculation but Guerin is most likely already on the roster and until he signs that contract and starts the season you are going to question him but by the end of the season he will be around the same mark for goals and points and hopefully some solid mentoring of JvR and Giroux.

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09-24-2010, 03:35 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Nah, just be able to have a discussion without getting your skirt all in a ruffle.
What qualifies as a "ruffle"?

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09-24-2010, 03:40 PM
  #141
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Who is Francis, and is he better the Guerin???

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09-24-2010, 04:00 PM
  #142
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why is jester still defending guerin. The guy is a joke and does not belong in the NHL anymore.

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09-24-2010, 04:07 PM
  #143
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If the Flyers sign Bill Guerin, I will be sick to my stomach.

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09-24-2010, 04:08 PM
  #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Look at the points and goals, totally equal. Look at the playoffs, Guerin had 15pts in 24 games during the Cup run and 9 points in 11 games last season. Next.
guerin was on crosby's wing. recchi wasn't. i also dont know why people here are acting like guerin is a young dude who's numbers will increase with age. they won't. just WATCH the ****ing guy, he is terrible. he is clearly declining fast. no good will come from signing him.

if you need to know anything more, just go ask the penguins forum how they feel about guerin. my buddy is a pens fan. his nickname for guerin: "Lazy." he, and any other rational pens fan, thinks that ditching guerin and having him sign with the flyers is absolutely fantastic. i'd rather not do things to our team that make pens fans happy.

edit: same goes to jester. seriously, why in the hell do you want to sign an aging, slow player on his decline, who can't stop turning over the puck?

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09-24-2010, 04:15 PM
  #145
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I'm actually shocked Jester is defending Guerin. I'm normally on board with 99% of what he says.

The idea of Bill Guerin, and what he once was, is perfect for this team. I just don't think he has it.

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09-24-2010, 04:19 PM
  #146
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I wonder how when he watches game film and he doesn't realize he just doesn't have it anymore

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09-24-2010, 04:23 PM
  #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
How they would be using Guerin he does not have to have JvR or Giroux speed. He needs to know where to be on the ice to be effective. If you look at the roster from last year Guerin basically replaces Asham. No one ever called Asham the fastest skater on the ice and with Guerin you actually get an upgrade with his ability to score, this is proven by the facts that he has goal totals around the 20 mark or better for his career. Guerin will need to play around the net, and play a positionally sound game, these are his strengths.

Guerin and Recchi are different types of player too, I am not going to say that Guerin is going to burn it up and down the ice but you will see him have the ability to play a smart game and put himself in a position to convert his chances much moreso than any other option Laviolette has during preseason. Just my speculation but Guerin is most likely already on the roster and until he signs that contract and starts the season you are going to question him but by the end of the season he will be around the same mark for goals and points and hopefully some solid mentoring of JvR and Giroux.
How about his tremendous amount of turnovers by him the past 2 games? With Lavy's system you need to have some speed. Guerin, other then Shelly, will be the slowest guy on our offense. With Lavy's system he does not fit well in the up tempo game.

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09-24-2010, 04:29 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
guerin was on crosby's wing. recchi wasn't. i also dont know why people here are acting like guerin is a young dude who's numbers will increase with age. they won't. just WATCH the ****ing guy, he is terrible. he is clearly declining fast. no good will come from signing him.

if you need to know anything more, just go ask the penguins forum how they feel about guerin. my buddy is a pens fan. his nickname for guerin: "Lazy." he, and any other rational pens fan, thinks that ditching guerin and having him sign with the flyers is absolutely fantastic. i'd rather not do things to our team that make pens fans happy.

edit: same goes to jester. seriously, why in the hell do you want to sign an aging, slow player on his decline, who can't stop turning over the puck?
Read above, I think the dude is a dick and wish he wasn't here. But his season last year was not the travesty it is being made out to be. And signing anyone to a 1-year, cheap deal isn't the developing disaster it is being made out to be.

More of a response... below...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
I'm actually shocked Jester is defending Guerin. I'm normally on board with 99% of what he says.

The idea of Bill Guerin, and what he once was, is perfect for this team. I just don't think he has it.
If Lavi decides he can't hack it... then he won't be on the team and/or playing for the team. Lavi proved last year with Leino that he wasn't going to put out a guy just because Holmgren handed him to him. I have to assume the two of them are talking and, unlike Holmgren, I do have some faith in Lavi as of now.

If Lavi wants Guerin, then Lavi should have Guerin. There are no significant salary cap ramifications to signing Guerin, so it isn't that big a deal.

The funny part, is usually I'm labeled the reactionary hater around here...

Quote:
Originally Posted by xchrisx159 View Post
I wonder how when he watches game film and he doesn't realize he just doesn't have it anymore
He's getting paid to play a game (or will be, theoretically). Why would you stop playing if someone wanted you and you still wanted to?

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09-24-2010, 04:30 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
How about his tremendous amount of turnovers by him the past 2 games? With Lavy's system you need to have some speed. Guerin, other then Shelly, will be the slowest guy on our offense. With Lavy's system he does not fit well in the up tempo game.
...you really can't put that much stock into preseason games.

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09-24-2010, 04:41 PM
  #150
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...you really can't put that much stock into preseason games.
In preseason, for a guy trying to make the team, he isnt really showing much.

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