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Preseason Bill Guerin thread.. (Post #405 Guerin Released)

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Old
09-24-2010, 04:49 PM
  #151
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im just trying to make sure everyone knows and understands that guerins numbers, at his age and with what he has shown, can only drop...especially when he isnt playing with crosby anymore.

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09-24-2010, 04:58 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
In preseason, for a guy trying to make the team, he isnt really showing much.
It's 2 games... in the preseason. They are rarely the best indication of anything.

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09-24-2010, 05:21 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I'm not advocating for anything necessarily. I'm advocating against knee-jerk claims of awfulness. Especially when he hasn't even signed a contract. If Lavi wants him, then Lavi wants him. If Lavi doesn't want him, he doesn't want him. If Homer gives him anything more than a cheap, 1-year deal I'd be pissed.
Fair enough. Just don't lump me in with the "knee-jerk" crowd you speak of. My opinion of Guerin and his on ice performance came long before he ever pulled a Flyers jersey over his head.

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I actually think he's a massive ****** and wish he wasn't here. Haven't liked him ever since he tried to decapitate a rookie in camp for the Stars. However, that's completely independent from the actual hockey aspect.
That's kinda ironic, because I think he'd be a great locker room guy and I have zero interest in his actual hockey aspect at this point, because I think he sucks.

Anyway, you and I are probably going to end up cheering for the old ******* soon enough, because chances are he's gonna be sporting the Orange and Black this season.


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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Guerin's goals/60 minutes last year: 0.60.

Players with lower goals/60 minutes on the Flyers last year:
Ville Leino 0.48
Claude Giroux 0.48
Scott Hartnell 0.36
Which doesn't at all take into account that none of these Flyers were all the great in the regular season, nor does it take into account the quality of their ice time and who they played with the majority of the time. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say this also includes PP time, and you and I both know that it shouldn't.

Anyway, enough beating that dead horse. The proof will be in the pudding over the course of an 82-game season as a member of the Philadelphia Flyers.

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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
And Dan Carcillo had some nice goals last year, but there's no way around the fact that he only provided 22 points. He neutered a lot more potential goals than he helped create.
Well, if you're expecting met to start defending the offensive prowess of Dan Carcillo, you are gonna be a tad bit disappointed. In the act of fairness, however, one should point out that 20 of those points were at even strength, only 7 fewer than Guerin, while also receiving far less ice time with linemates not named Crosby.

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Mike Richards GFON/60 last year was 2.34. The year before it was 3.06, and the year before that it was 3.06 again. Now, some of that was Gagne struggling with injuries, but some of it was you were sticking a guy with a very limited set of offensive skills on his wing for a solid chunk of his time on the ice.
Yea, and some of that was also Richards not performing the same way he had the previous two seasons, regardless of linemates. Hell, the whole team slumped for a long time offensively last year, and I'm gonna take a wild guess and say that Dan Carcillo wasn't exactly to be blamed for all of it.

Like I said, different opinions and that's the way it goes. You think Guerin could potentially deliver an offensive upgrade, and I believe his overall play would be a downgrade on our roster, when all areas of the game are factored in.

In the famous words of our brilliant GM, "What can you do?"

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09-24-2010, 05:23 PM
  #154
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It's 2 games... in the preseason. They are rarely the best indication of anything.
Sucking while playing on Crosby's wing is a pretty decent indicator...

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09-24-2010, 05:35 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by Valhoun View Post
Sucking while playing on Crosby's wing is a pretty decent indicator...
Exactly, Crosby could even make me look like a competent ice hockey player if I played on his line.

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09-24-2010, 05:46 PM
  #156
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Guerin, if we don't just do it now, we'll do it later in the season (for someone else) and trade a player and/or asset to get him. I'd rather lose whoever it is on waivers now than later.

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09-24-2010, 06:52 PM
  #157
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Say no to Guerin. Just say no.

Carcillo could play on the third line (and we kill in the corners for Roo and JvR).

Carcillo or Nodl can be better than Guerin overall. I'm not worried about Roo and JvR scoring in bunches, I'm worried about defense. And Guerin provides none of it.

There will be opportunities for players near the deadline or from within if we feel the lineup needs improving. Bill Guerin will not help.

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09-24-2010, 07:03 PM
  #158
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God damn it, holmstom is playing better than guerin.

Fact is, Guerin is on a try out contract, and looks very poor against AHL opposition. He has shown why he was left out of a penguins team that has awful wingers to begin with. Leave him well alone homer

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09-24-2010, 09:54 PM
  #159
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Keep in mind Billy wasn't on the ice until his practice/workout with you guys this summer...I think he's working up to his great game shape. I'm sure he would finish a lot of Carter's nice passes, just like he did with Crosby last year.

I really, really, REALLY hope he signs with you guys.

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09-25-2010, 12:27 AM
  #160
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Originally Posted by 11isEricsBrother View Post
Keep in mind Billy wasn't on the ice until his practice/workout with you guys this summer...I think he's working up to his great game shape. I'm sure he would finish a lot of Carter's nice passes, just like he did with Crosby last year.

I really, really, REALLY hope he signs with you guys.


Anyway, yea Carcillo has been MIA so far all preseason. Just had 12 minutes last night. Wellwood played 17 minutes.

I know its most likely not gonna happen, but Wellwood continues to do well (which I think after his last performance will get another look on a more skilled line) working with Giroux, I think you start to think if someone like him or Holmstrom are better for that position next to Giroux and JVR. Guerin is too slow to play next to them.


Last edited by GKJ: 09-25-2010 at 09:58 AM.
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09-25-2010, 11:16 AM
  #161
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Guerin was invisible last night.

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09-25-2010, 12:42 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by Shadow Flyer View Post
Which doesn't at all take into account that none of these Flyers were all the great in the regular season, nor does it take into account the quality of their ice time and who they played with the majority of the time. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say this also includes PP time, and you and I both know that it shouldn't.

Anyway, enough beating that dead horse. The proof will be in the pudding over the course of an 82-game season as a member of the Philadelphia Flyers.
It doesn't, those are 5 on 5 numbers per 60 minutes of play.

And saying that they weren't good during the regular season... I mean, really? You can't chastise Guerin for his lack of production and when that is put against other players just say they didn't have good regular seasons. Guerin produced goals at a higher clip than 3 of our best scoring line players.

Had to be doing something right.

EDIT: Guerin's 5 on 4 rate was 2.00 goals/60 minutes (which was the best on the Pens for regular PP players). Lower than our team for the most part (better than Gagne), but that's not shocking because the Pens have struggled with the PP the last couple of years.

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Originally Posted by Valhoun View Post
Sucking while playing on Crosby's wing is a pretty decent indicator...
...scoring 45 points in the NHL.... ain't "sucking." This league ain't that easy to play in, I don't care who you're on the ice with.

Guerin would also not be asked to play as big a role on this team, which would probably help him out if overuse was a factor for him.

However, until Lavi gives me a reason not to, I'm going to trust his judgment.

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09-25-2010, 12:54 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by sa cyred View Post
Anyway, yea Carcillo has been MIA so far all preseason. Just had 12 minutes last night. Wellwood played 17 minutes.

I know its most likely not gonna happen, but Wellwood continues to do well (which I think after his last performance will get another look on a more skilled line) working with Giroux, I think you start to think if someone like him or Holmstrom are better for that position next to Giroux and JVR. Guerin is too slow to play next to them.


Carcillo was the guy hitting everything in a white and blue jersey and as usual... drawing penalties. I Liked Wellwood's game but I don't understand the infatuation with Holstrom thus far. Agreed on Guerin, there's too many good offensive players on this team to carry a guy just cause he's cheap.

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09-25-2010, 01:06 PM
  #164
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Carcillo was the guy hitting everything in a white and blue jersey and as usual... drawing penalties. I Liked Wellwood's game but I don't understand the infatuation with Holstrom thus far. Agreed on Guerin, there's too many good offensive players on this team to carry a guy just cause he's cheap.
He had 12 minutes of time, but wouldnt even have had that much if he didnt overextend a shift or 2. He drew what, 1 penalty? Maybe 2? He also had a nice move the first game, but thats about it. As we can see, other guys were flying around hitting people but also adding alittle bit of offense. Holmstrom has been pretty good. He made some very nice defensive plays the 1st game which saved Leightons ass. Also, had a one timer from Meszaros which barely missed the net. He set Testwuide up a few times his 2nd game, but Testwuide couldnt finish it.

Obviously I think our team is already set, with Guerin being the other top 9 guy with Giroux as center, but I did like how on offense how Holmstrom and Wellwood played. Wellwood surprised me. Seems to have good speed but some offensive skill, like that deke on Giggy that almost when in but he made a nice save

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09-25-2010, 01:09 PM
  #165
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Wellwood has been intriguing ever since he started to tear it up in junior after we drafted him. Hopefully we have something there... almost assuredly needs to be in the AHL for a year or two, though.

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09-25-2010, 01:30 PM
  #166
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
It doesn't, those are 5 on 5 numbers per 60 minutes of play.

And saying that they weren't good during the regular season... I mean, really? You can't chastise Guerin for his lack of production and when that is put against other players just say they didn't have good regular seasons. Guerin produced goals at a higher clip than 3 of our best scoring line players.

Had to be doing something right.
Seriously?

Guerin, playing on the top line in Pittsburgh with Crosby, with much more opportunity to produce in a scoring role, and you're comparing his 5 on 5 numbers to Hartnell, Giroux and Leino?

You're comparing apples to oranges in terms of quality of ice time and you know it. Why not put him against players in comparable situations for fairness?

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EDIT: Guerin's 5 on 4 rate was 2.00 goals/60 minutes (which was the best on the Pens for regular PP players). Lower than our team for the most part (better than Gagne), but that's not shocking because the Pens have struggled with the PP the last couple of years.
Wondeful. I was just thinking that we need help on the PP.

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...scoring 45 points in the NHL.... ain't "sucking." This league ain't that easy to play in, I don't care who you're on the ice with.

Guerin would also not be asked to play as big a role on this team, which would probably help him out if overuse was a factor for him.

However, until Lavi gives me a reason not to, I'm going to trust his judgment.
I'm curious Jester, how many times did you watch Guerin last year?

You can break down all the stats you want, and even skew them and compare players who weren't at all in the same advantageous position as Guerin, but I know what I saw with my own eyes 68 times last year, and it wasn't pretty regarding good old Billy.

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09-25-2010, 01:42 PM
  #167
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Seriously?

Guerin, playing on the top line in Pittsburgh with Crosby, with much more opportunity to produce in a scoring role, and you're comparing his 5 on 5 numbers to Hartnell, Giroux and Leino?

You're comparing apples to oranges in terms of quality of ice time and you know it. Why not put him against players in comparable situations for fairness?
No, I'm comparing NHL players on NHL surfaces in similar men-on-ice scenarios. If you want to get into the more derivative statistics like QUALTEAM that's fine, and playing with Crosby is certainly a boon to him. However, your complaint has been that Carcillo scored more even strength goals than him as if this was some major indictment of Guerin.

Carcillo scored at a higher clip at even strength than a lot of players I deem significantly more talented than him. Hell, Darroll Powe had a higher rate of scoring at even strength than Carcillo... and Carcillo definitely has better hands than Powe.

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Wondeful. I was just thinking that we need help on the PP.
If we have injuries, we might.

Quote:
I'm curious Jester, how many times did you watch Guerin last year?

You can break down all the stats you want, and even skew them and compare players who weren't at all in the same advantageous position as Guerin, but I know what I saw with my own eyes 68 times last year, and it wasn't pretty regarding good old Billy.
Every Flyers game, and the majority of their national televised and playoff games that didn't conflict with the Flyers.

And there's ZERO skewing of statistics being done on my part. I'm providing the stats without any alteration whatsoever. Bill Guerin scored 0.60 goals/60 minutes at even strength. Empirical fact. Bill Guerin scored 2.00 goals/60 minutes (best on the team) on the 5-on-4 PP last year. Empirical fact. If anyone is skewing his numbers, it's the haters with the "oh but he didn't score enough with Crosby stuff."

I'll ask you, what would have been enough? 30 goals? 40 goals?

Now, he may be washed up, and may not be a good choice for the Flyers... but the disparagement of his offensive production last year is fantasy world stuff. He isn't coming in here to be one of our top wings (as was the case with the Pens), he's here to be a depth wing and provide a little bit of punch that we wouldn't get from other guys.

He's replacing Aaron Asham on the roster (assuming he signs).

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09-25-2010, 02:07 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
No, I'm comparing NHL players on NHL surfaces in similar men-on-ice scenarios. If you want to get into the more derivative statistics like QUALTEAM that's fine, and playing with Crosby is certainly a boon to him. However, your complaint has been that Carcillo scored more even strength goals than him as if this was some major indictment of Guerin.
No, you are not comparing similar men-on-ice scenarios. How the **** was Leino, who was a healthy scratch the majority of his time here, "similar" in comparison to Guerin playing on the top line in Pitt?

And it IS a major indictment of Guerin that Carcillo scored more even strength goals than him. How that can even be argued when you compare the quality of ice time and linemates is mind boggling.

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Carcillo scored at a higher clip at even strength than a lot of players I deem significantly more talented than him. Hell, Darroll Powe had a higher rate of scoring at even strength than Carcillo... and Carcillo definitely has better hands than Powe.
I agree, so what's your point about Guerins' 5 on 5 numbers?

You are acting as if Guerin was in no more an advantageous position than the players you are comparing him to, and that's nonsense. I took a lesser player (Carcillo) and showed that, even in a much LESS advantageous position, he was nearly as productive as Billy Guerin. Surely you see the difference, no?

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If we have injuries, we might.
Injuries hit every team every year. We had injuries last year and I'm pretty sure our PP ended up being ok.

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Every Flyers game, and the majority of their national televised and playoff games that didn't conflict with the Flyers.
So how many is that?

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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
And there's ZERO skewing of statistics being done on my part. I'm providing the stats without any alteration whatsoever. Bill Guerin scored 0.60 goals/60 minutes. Empirical fact. Bill Guerin scored 2.00 goals/60 minutes (best on the team) on the 5-on-4 PP last year. Empirical fact. If anyone is skewing his numbers, it's the haters with the "oh but he didn't score enough with Crosby stuff."
Oh, *********.

You are damn sure skewing the context of those stats by comparing Guerins' numbers to players who weren't at all in a "similar men-on-ice" scenario.

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I'll ask you, what would have been enough? 30 goals? 40 goals?
More than 10? And maybe some other area on the ice where he wasn't a deficiency? That would be a start.

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Now, he may be washed up, and may not be a good choice for the Flyers... but the disparagement of his offensive production last year is fantasy world stuff. He isn't coming in here to be one of our top wings (as was the case with the Pens), he's here to be a depth wing and provide a little bit of punch that we wouldn't get from other guys.

He's replacing Aaron Asham on the roster (assuming he signs).
Yes, emphasis on "little" as it refers to "punch".

And Aaron Asham scored 3 less even strength points than Guerin, despite seeing nearly 300 minutes less of even strength ice time.

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09-25-2010, 05:20 PM
  #169
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...scoring 45 points in the NHL.... ain't "sucking." This league ain't that easy to play in, I don't care who you're on the ice with.
Seriously? Given top line minutes and the best player in the game feeding you passes (and able to be fed passes) and you think that Guerin provided reasonable production?

Being on the top line of ANY team and scoring that little isn't acceptable. That's why Carcillo isn't acceptable. Hell Carcillo scored 22 points with 7 fewer minutes of icetime per game and less games played.

45 points on the top line? Adjusted for injuries, Edmonton's ****ing top line would have all had more than that and they were the worst team in the league.

I really don't think the following statement is unreasonable: Given playing time with the best player in the world, you should do better than average if you are a quality NHL player.

Guerin didn't because he's not.

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09-25-2010, 05:29 PM
  #170
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No, you are not comparing similar men-on-ice scenarios. How the **** was Leino, who was a healthy scratch the majority of his time here, "similar" in comparison to Guerin playing on the top line in Pitt?
So, to be clear. Your argument is that even strength play is not even strength play.

QUALTEAM and QUALCOMP are a whole different discussion, that complicate the numbers considerably, sure. However, 5-on-5 play is similar to 5-on-5 play regardless of who you are playing with... there are, ya know, 5 skaters for each team and 1 goalie each.

Quote:
And it IS a major indictment of Guerin that Carcillo scored more even strength goals than him. How that can even be argued when you compare the quality of ice time and linemates is mind boggling.
Carcillo scored more even strength goals than Giroux, should we dump his ass? ****, Carcillo was more effective as a linemate to Gagne and Richards than Giroux.

Carcillo scoring more even strength goals does not equate to a blanket indictment of Guerin's play. Sorry. And if it does, you're going to have to start hating on a lot of other players you probably don't want to hate on.

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I agree, so what's your point about Guerins' 5 on 5 numbers?
They're not as bad as you seem to think they were.

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You are acting as if Guerin was in no more an advantageous position than the players you are comparing him to, and that's nonsense. I took a lesser player (Carcillo) and showed that, even in a much LESS advantageous position, he was nearly as productive as Billy Guerin. Surely you see the difference, no?
No I'm not. I actually specifically stated that Crosby would be an advantage to him if you wanted to compare QUALTEAM. You are trying to take a specific statistic (goals/60 at even strength) and analyze it with another statistic in mind (QUALTEAM). That's fine, and you can do that... but it doesn't take away from the fact that he produced X goals per 60 minutes, and that's better than some players currently on this roster.


Last edited by Jester: 09-25-2010 at 05:40 PM.
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09-25-2010, 05:39 PM
  #171
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Seriously? Given top line minutes and the best player in the game feeding you passes (and able to be fed passes) and you think that Guerin provided reasonable production?

Being on the top line of ANY team and scoring that little isn't acceptable. That's why Carcillo isn't acceptable. Hell Carcillo scored 22 points with 7 fewer minutes of icetime per game and less games played.

45 points on the top line? Adjusted for injuries, Edmonton's ****ing top line would have all had more than that and they were the worst team in the league.

I really don't think the following statement is unreasonable: Given playing time with the best player in the world, you should do better than average if you are a quality NHL player.

Guerin didn't because he's not.
Do you really believe 21 goals and 45 pts is "average" in the NHL?

There were 110 20 goal scorers in the NHL last year (less than 4 per team); Guerin tied for 87th in the league in goals.

45 points tied Guerin for 115th in the league in points.

21-24-45 is a solid 2nd line contribution... weak for a top line player, which he was supposed to be in Pittsburgh. Here, he would, theoretically, be the 9th forward on this roster... for 550K or whatever.

But, in all seriousness, I love how Lavi hasn't earned the faith to make a decision in training camp on a player like Guerin...

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09-25-2010, 05:43 PM
  #172
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But, in all seriousness, I love how Lavi hasn't earned the faith to make a decision in training camp on a player like Guerin...
First, his age means that he has virtually zero chance of coming anywhere close to the production he had last year.

Second, I'm not sure that there is any evidence that Lavi has major input in personnel decisions.

Third, if Homer is panicking for any reason, then we all know that he'll make a move regardless of what anyone else thinks (aside from Snider).

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09-25-2010, 06:16 PM
  #173
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Do you really believe 21 goals and 45 pts is "average" in the NHL?

There were 110 20 goal scorers in the NHL last year (less than 4 per team); Guerin tied for 87th in the league in goals.

45 points tied Guerin for 115th in the league in points.

21-24-45 is a solid 2nd line contribution... weak for a top line player, which he was supposed to be in Pittsburgh. Here, he would, theoretically, be the 9th forward on this roster... for 550K or whatever.

But, in all seriousness, I love how Lavi hasn't earned the faith to make a decision in training camp on a player like Guerin...
Seriously jester give it up, Just admit you were wrong and Guerin stinks this year, and last. Everyone is wrong sometimes, why are you fighting this corner so hard?

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09-25-2010, 06:28 PM
  #174
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So, to be clear. Your argument is that even strength play is not even strength play.
You know what my argument is, but you can continue to dance around it if you want.

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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
QUALTEAM and QUALCOMP are a whole different discussion, that complicate the numbers considerably, sure. However, 5-on-5 play is similar to 5-on-5 play regardless of who you are playing with... there are, ya know, 5 skaters for each team and 1 goalie each.
It complicates the numbers considerably because it puts them into proper context, but you already know this. You're far too intelligent not to realize that 5-on-5 play is not the same for every player, and the context of the stats are altered greatly by who they line up with and against.

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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Carcillo scored more even strength goals than Giroux, should we dump his ass? ****, Carcillo was more effective as a linemate to Gagne and Richards than Giroux.
Context. We aren't talking about replacing Giroux with Guerin for obvious reasons that any monkey can figure out with or without stats.

When the player you are looking to replace in the top-9 (Carcillo), has scored more even strength goals than the player you are looking to replace him with (Guerin), and has done so with less ice time and not attached to Crosby's hip, how is that an upgrade?

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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Carcillo scoring more even strength goals does not equate to a blanket indictment of Guerin's play. Sorry. And if it does, you're going to have to start hating on a lot of other players you probably don't want to hate on.
My blanket indictment of Guerin's play comes from watching a **** load of games over the past year, and given that I generally agree with your player assessments, I find it hard to believe you have watched Guerin more than a handful of times over that same period and are endorsing his addition to this hockey team.

The fact that Carcillo did score more even strength goals than Guerin surely furthers the indictment that I formed from seeing Billy with my own two eyes. And even if you consider Guerin an "offensive uprgade" to Carcillo, do tell, what other areas of his game help the Flyers at even strength?


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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
No I'm not. I actually specifically stated that Crosby would be an advantage to him if you wanted to compare QUALTEAM. You are trying to take a specific statistic (goals/60 at even strength) and analyze it with another statistic in mind (QUALTEAM). That's fine, and you can do that... but it doesn't take away from the fact that he produced X goals per 60 minutes, and that's better than some players currently on this roster.
Well hell, why wouldn't one want to put the numbers into ****ing context?

It's like taking a prospect who played in one NHL game, having him score 2 goals in 10 minutes, and saying he produced more goals per 60 minutes of ice time than the whole ****ing league.

Numbers, without context, are quite simply meaningless.

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09-25-2010, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Do you really believe 21 goals and 45 pts is "average" in the NHL?
Playing on Crosby's wing and getting power play time, yes. The average NHL 3rd liner could tally those numbers in that situation. We can dissect his stats all we want, but all you're doing is losing sight of the forest behind the trees.

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