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Old
10-13-2010, 11:15 AM
  #76
MsWoof
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It's incredible how pretty much every thread on this board turns into a conversation about Carter.

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10-13-2010, 11:37 AM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Yes, but you're ignoring the fact that there is variance in where you aim and where the puck ends up actually going. Sometimes it goes exactly where you want it to go, other times you miss by a bit in one direction or another. If you're aiming to the edge of the net, as opposed to the middle, that variance is going to take the puck outside of the net much more often than if you're just trying to put the puck on net. However, that same shot is far more likely to go in, because the area it's likely to end up on net is far more dangerous than if you just chuck it at the goalie's chest... and get it on net.

SOG is an overrated statistic if you're talking about an individual shooter in an individual instance. Alex Ovechkin misses the net a *ing ton, are we saying we wouldn't want him taking the shot for us in this situation...because he misses the net a lot?

The question you need to ask is the following: what shot is more likely to beat a goalie?

It is clearly the shot for the corner, especially at the NHL level. That's the higher probability shot by a mile. NHL goalies are too good, and if you're trying to beat them with your shot... you can't shoot to the middle of the net, and that means you're going to miss the net a fair amount if you're shooting a lot.

It's the same thing with pitchers... is throwing strikes the goal, or is throwing good strikes the goal? Throwing strikes, in that sense, is overrated. If you're grooving fastballs down the middle you're going to get slaughtered.

Anyone in the NHL can chuck shots on net... the guys that shoot for the corners and miss the net often, are going to be the ones accumulating lots of goals.

Missed shots leaders [forwards] (goals)
Alex Ovechkin 172 (50)
Brad Richards 142 (24)
Jeff Carter 141 (33)
Steve Stamkos 123 (51)
Dany Heatley 117 (39)
Ilya Kovalchuk 117 (41)
...

There is a direct correlation between scoring goals in this league, and missing the net a lot. Hitting the net (as a line of criticizing a shooter for missing the net with regularity) is completely overrated. The goalies are simply too good.
I know what you're getting at. Obviously shooting for the corners will cause more missed shots, but it's still not okay to miss the net a lot. Missing the net is never, ever a good thing. It's that simple.

I'm not saying I want Carter to shoot less or stop trying to snipe, but his aim could be better. Obviously it's not as simple as saying "I'm going to put the puck exactly here," but he could be much better. I mean, I'll take Stamkos with less missed shots and more goals over Carter any day, if we want to start getting into your numbers. He's the third highest on that list, but if you were to sort it by goals instead, he sure isn't. That's not a good thing.

Trying to warp Carter's inaccuracy into a good thing just doesn't hold water. Missing the net is missing the net, period.

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10-13-2010, 11:56 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by infidelappel View Post
I know what you're getting at. Obviously shooting for the corners will cause more missed shots, but it's still not okay to miss the net a lot. Missing the net is never, ever a good thing. It's that simple.

I'm not saying I want Carter to shoot less or stop trying to snipe, but his aim could be better. Obviously it's not as simple as saying "I'm going to put the puck exactly here," but he could be much better. I mean, I'll take Stamkos with less missed shots and more goals over Carter any day, if we want to start getting into your numbers. He's the third highest on that list, but if you were to sort it by goals instead, he sure isn't. That's not a good thing.

Trying to warp Carter's inaccuracy into a good thing just doesn't hold water. Missing the net is missing the net, period.

Agreed, instead of always trying to hit the corners like he does from bad angles he should shoot low and look for a rebound.

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10-13-2010, 12:06 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by infidelappel View Post
I know what you're getting at. Obviously shooting for the corners will cause more missed shots, but it's still not okay to miss the net a lot. Missing the net is never, ever a good thing. It's that simple.

I'm not saying I want Carter to shoot less or stop trying to snipe, but his aim could be better. Obviously it's not as simple as saying "I'm going to put the puck exactly here," but he could be much better. I mean, I'll take Stamkos with less missed shots and more goals over Carter any day, if we want to start getting into your numbers. He's the third highest on that list, but if you were to sort it by goals instead, he sure isn't. That's not a good thing.

Trying to warp Carter's inaccuracy into a good thing just doesn't hold water. Missing the net is missing the net, period.
Would you prefer Stamkos to Ovechkin? What about when Carter had 46 goals? The year before Carter had 116 missed shots and 46 goals.

Ovechkin had 220 missed shots when he scored 56 goals. The next closes was Eric Staal... with 137.

So, Ovechkin had 104 more missed shots than Carter two years ago, for 10 more goals. Based on what you just said, you would prefer having Jeff Carter to Ovechkin two years ago.

Using missed shots as a point of criticism is a massive red herring... and complaints about just hitting the net more are terribly, terribly overrated.

The year before that, Ovechkin had 199 missed shots... for 65 goals.

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10-13-2010, 01:27 PM
  #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Would you prefer Stamkos to Ovechkin? What about when Carter had 46 goals? The year before Carter had 116 missed shots and 46 goals.

Ovechkin had 220 missed shots when he scored 56 goals. The next closes was Eric Staal... with 137.

So, Ovechkin had 104 more missed shots than Carter two years ago, for 10 more goals. Based on what you just said, you would prefer having Jeff Carter to Ovechkin two years ago.

Using missed shots as a point of criticism is a massive red herring... and complaints about just hitting the net more are terribly, terribly overrated.

The year before that, Ovechkin had 199 missed shots... for 65 goals.

The more important stat is shooting percentage and here is your proof:

Ovechkin 2007-2008

Goals - 65
Shots - 446
Shooting % - 14.57


Ovechkin 2008-2009

Goals - 56
Shots - 528
Shooting % - 10.61


Source http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/...e=nhl-capitals


Carter 2008-2009

Goals - 46
Shots - 342
Shooting % - 13.45


Carter 2009-2010

Goals - 33
Shots - 319
Shooting % - 10.34


Source http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/...ame=nhl-flyers


While you could argue that taking more accurate shots leads you to missing the net more often, you can see that OV scored 9 more goals due to his higher percentage of shooting. It's not necessarily because of him missing the net. All 65 of his goals were shots on net as opposed to all the shots he missed. Also, if you take more shots then by nature you are going to miss the net more. Both players scored the most goals of their careers when the highest percentage of their shots went in the net, therefore making their shots on net. So to me, being more accurate means getting more of your shots on net.

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10-13-2010, 01:35 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
OK, his career high in goals is 32.

You spend a lot of time disparaging Carter... he's bested that in each of the last two years. How underrated is his ability to shoot and score?
I do not disparage Carters ability to score, I just mock the pink hat mentality that people have in regards to Carter. If you take 300 shots and make 13% that is 39 goals, the amount of shots count but as you see teams figure him out more his totals will drop until he takes the time to work on other aspects of his game.

Cannon has a shot but his passes are above his game level. He wants to be Giroux or Briere instead of just being Mike Richards in his passing......KISS....Keep It Simple Stupid.

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10-13-2010, 01:46 PM
  #82
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Unless the numbers point to missed shots being converted by the opposing team into goals, missed shots don't matter. Guys like Carter and Ovechkin take a ton of shots but score plenty of goals. And Carter's lines are always solid defensively.

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10-13-2010, 01:49 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by MrHockey1982 View Post
While you could argue that taking more accurate shots leads you to missing the net more often, you can see that OV scored 9 more goals due to his higher percentage of shooting. It's not necessarily because of him missing the net. All 65 of his goals were shots on net as opposed to all the shots he missed. Also, if you take more shots then by nature you are going to miss the net more. Both players scored the most goals of their careers when the highest percentage of their shots went in the net, therefore making their shots on net. So to me, being more accurate means getting more of your shots on net.
Lets do a little math... and, it should be understood, Alex Ovechkin is better than Jeff Carter. Significantly.

2009-10:
Alex Ovechkin attempted 520 shots on net (SOG, Missed Shots), and converted 50 goals: or 9.6%

Jeff Carter attempted 460 shots on net, and converted 33 goals: or 7.2%

2008-9:
AO attempted 748 shots on net (yes, this is ABSURD), and converted 56 goals: or 7.4%

Carter attempted 458 shots on net, and converted 46 goals: or 10.0%

2007-8:
AO attempted 645 shots on net, and converted 65 goals: or 10.1%

Carter attempted 367 shots on net, and converted 29 goals: or 7.9%

Over the last three season in total:

AO has attempted 1,913 shots on net, and converted 171 goals: or 8.9%

Jeff Carter has attempted 1,285 shots on net, and converted 108 goals: or 8.4%

So, over the last three years of their respective careers... when Ovechkin releases the puck on net, he is 0.5% more likely to get a goal out of that shot than Jeff Carter... yet Jeff Carter misses the net too much.

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10-13-2010, 01:52 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
I do not disparage Carters ability to score, I just mock the pink hat mentality that people have in regards to Carter. If you take 300 shots and make 13% that is 39 goals, the amount of shots count but as you see teams figure him out more his totals will drop until he takes the time to work on other aspects of his game.

Cannon has a shot but his passes are above his game level. He wants to be Giroux or Briere instead of just being Mike Richards in his passing......KISS....Keep It Simple Stupid.
Mike Richards has a nice slapper/one-timer but he doesn't have all that great a wrist shot.

And the empirical evidence is completely against the bolded... he has increased his shot rate in each of the last three seasons. He'll probably plateau unless he just starts shooting all the *ing time like Ovechkin does.

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10-13-2010, 01:56 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by Woof View Post
It's incredible how pretty much every thread on this board turns into a conversation about Carter.
There should be a Cartsiephan's Law akin to Godwin's Law.

"As an online discussion of the Philadelphia Flyers grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Jeff Carter approaches 1."

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10-13-2010, 02:00 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Lets do a little math... and, it should be understood, Alex Ovechkin is better than Jeff Carter. Significantly.

2009-10:
Alex Ovechkin attempted 520 shots on net (SOG, Missed Shots), and converted 50 goals: or 9.6%

Jeff Carter attempted 460 shots on net, and converted 33 goals: or 7.2%

2008-9:
AO attempted 748 shots on net (yes, this is ABSURD), and converted 56 goals: or 7.4%

Carter attempted 458 shots on net, and converted 46 goals: or 10.0%

2007-8:
AO attempted 645 shots on net, and converted 65 goals: or 10.1%

Carter attempted 367 shots on net, and converted 29 goals: or 7.9%

Over the last three season in total:

AO has attempted 1,913 shots on net, and converted 171 goals: or 8.9%

Jeff Carter has attempted 1,285 shots on net, and converted 108 goals: or 8.4%

So, over the last three years of their respective careers... when Ovechkin releases the puck on net, he is 0.5% more likely to get a goal out of that shot than Jeff Carter... yet Jeff Carter misses the net too much.

Very good point and I like what you've done here. What i gather from this is that since Ovechkin is much better he has the opportunity to put more shots on net. Maybe Carter just needs to work on his other skills of getting open to take more shots than just shooting accuracy. BUT .5% better shooting is still a pretty sizeable difference if you ask me. That could mean another 5 goals or so for Carter if he got more accurate.

All in all, one stat that is not debatable is this. No shot that has ever missed the net has ever gone in and no shot that has ever been scored has ever missed the net (aside from LeClair vs. Hasek HAHAHAHA!!) So Carter needs to be more accurate with his shots that are actually on net.

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10-13-2010, 02:03 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Flyskippy View Post
There should be a Cartsiephan's Law akin to Godwin's Law.

"As an online discussion of the Philadelphia Flyers grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Jeff Carter approaches 1."

Dude, your picture is quite hilarious but seriously can we please not use Spongebob as a nickname for our goalie??? "Spongebob" doesn't exactly fit the identity of a Philadelphia Flyer!! LOL!!

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10-13-2010, 02:05 PM
  #88
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So Carter needs to be more accurate with his shots that are actually on net.
If Carter needs to be more accurate, then virtually every other player in the NHL does too.

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10-13-2010, 02:08 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Valhoun View Post
If Carter needs to be more accurate, then virtually every other player in the NHL does too.

OK so you're saying you don't think Carter needs to be more accurate? He's supposedly our best scorer and potentially going to score us 40+ goals a year. I don't think Shelley worries to much about shooting accuracy....

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10-13-2010, 02:13 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by MrHockey1982 View Post
Very good point and I like what you've done here. What i gather from this is that since Ovechkin is much better he has the opportunity to put more shots on net. Maybe Carter just needs to work on his other skills of getting open to take more shots than just shooting accuracy. BUT .5% better shooting is still a pretty sizeable difference if you ask me. That could mean another 5 goals or so for Carter if he got more accurate.

All in all, one stat that is not debatable is this. No shot that has ever missed the net has ever gone in and no shot that has ever been scored has ever missed the net (aside from LeClair vs. Hasek HAHAHAHA!!) So Carter needs to be more accurate with his shots that are actually on net.
0.5% is not a sizeable difference... especially given the perception that Ovechkin is one of, if not the best player in the NHL right now. The primary difference between Ovechkin and Carter (as shooters) is that Ovechkin is much better at getting into a position to fire on net. Once in that position, however, there is very little difference between the two.

If Carter converted at 8.9% as opposed to 8.4%, it would be 6.365 goals over three seasons.

Frankly, Carter could probably get there by simple developing a real one-timer, which he doesn't really have... and has nothing to do with his accuracy on net.

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10-13-2010, 02:14 PM
  #91
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The comparison of Ovi and Carter is ridiculous in my opinion because Ovechkin has so many more tools than Carter has. I don't watch Ovechkin every game he plays, but I do watch Carter every game he plays and I have long since lost count of how many 2 on 1's for the Flyers turn into 3 on 2's the other way because his shot misses high and wide, wraps around the boards and goes out to center ice.

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10-13-2010, 02:16 PM
  #92
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OK so you're saying you don't think Carter needs to be more accurate? He's supposedly our best scorer and potentially going to score us 40+ goals a year. I don't think Shelley worries to much about shooting accuracy....
Also a reason Shelley has 16 goals in 541 NHL games, and only managed 341 shots.

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10-13-2010, 02:17 PM
  #93
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OK so you're saying you don't think Carter needs to be more accurate? He's supposedly our best scorer and potentially going to score us 40+ goals a year. I don't think Shelley worries to much about shooting accuracy....
Scoring is about ends, not means. Carter scores at a vastly better rate than virtually everyone else in the NHL and certainly every non-superstar. Only seven players scored 40 or more goals last season. How many centers have scored more goals over the last two seasons? Crosby?

So, the standard that Carter has to meet is scoring more goals than any other center year in and year out? Seems pretty silly to me...

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10-13-2010, 02:17 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
The comparison of Ovi and Carter is ridiculous in my opinion because Ovechkin has so many more tools than Carter has. I don't watch Ovechkin every game he plays, but I do watch Carter every game he plays and I have long since lost count of how many 2 on 1's for the Flyers turn into 3 on 2's the other way because his shot misses high and wide, wraps around the boards and goes out to center ice.
Ovechkin does it too.

Every shooter in the NHL does it.

Which is why complaining about it is a massive red herring. If you want them to stop missing the net so much, you're also going to see their goal totals go down a bit most likely, because shooting to the goalie as opposed to the corners has less chance of touching twine.

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10-13-2010, 02:28 PM
  #95
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Ovechkin does it too.

Every shooter in the NHL does it.

Which is why complaining about it is a massive red herring. If you want them to stop missing the net so much, you're also going to see their goal totals go down a bit most likely, because shooting to the goalie as opposed to the corners has less chance of touching twine.
No one is asking him to stop shooting for the corners (because most people realize that is why he pots as many goals as he does)... I, personally, want him to stop doing it when at terrible angles (and often from the freaking blue line) which results in it wrapping around the boards.

If you are fed a pass in the high slot and miss high and wide it hits the back boards and becomes a scrum behind the net, not an odd man rush the other way.

It is called playing smart and I, often times, don't personally think Carter plays very smart.

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10-13-2010, 02:28 PM
  #96
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Dude, your picture is quite hilarious but seriously can we please not use Spongebob as a nickname for our goalie??? "Spongebob" doesn't exactly fit the identity of a Philadelphia Flyer!! LOL!!
We want our goalie to be absorbent with regards to pucks and indefatigable as his nickname's sake. Goalies don't have to be tough like Hextall. They just need to save the puck (and games) like Parent.

Honestly, I don't care what his nickname ends up being, so long as he stops the puck and the Flyers win games.

Credit and thanks go to Jules for my pic/avatar.

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10-13-2010, 02:39 PM
  #97
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Scoring is about ends, not means. Carter scores at a vastly better rate than virtually everyone else in the NHL and certainly every non-superstar. Only seven players scored 40 or more goals last season. How many centers have scored more goals over the last two seasons? Crosby?

So, the standard that Carter has to meet is scoring more goals than any other center year in and year out? Seems pretty silly to me...

I see what you're saying but I have watched hockey for a very long time and Carter has the potential to be much better than he has been. I am far more impressed with Giroux and see him surpassing Carter as our best scorer eventually. So what you're telling me is that you're 100% satisfied with Carter's overall performance? I certainly am not but I recognize that he's very good. During his big year he was unstoppable for a few weeks and looked better than anyone else in the entire league for that short period of time. I want him to improve his skills such as one timers and getting better quality shooting chances. 33 goals for him just does not seem like what he should be scoring and I think he should get at least 40 for a few more years.

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10-13-2010, 03:02 PM
  #98
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I see what you're saying but I have watched hockey for a very long time and Carter has the potential to be much better than he has been. I am far more impressed with Giroux and see him surpassing Carter as our best scorer eventually. So what you're telling me is that you're 100% satisfied with Carter's overall performance? I certainly am not but I recognize that he's very good. During his big year he was unstoppable for a few weeks and looked better than anyone else in the entire league for that short period of time. I want him to improve his skills such as one timers and getting better quality shooting chances. 33 goals for him just does not seem like what he should be scoring and I think he should get at least 40 for a few more years.
Same number Rick Nash put up last year... It's VERY hard to just put up 40 year after year in this league. If you can do that, you're looking at a 500 career goal guy (i.e. a Hall of Famer).

You're essentially setting the bar at HoF quality play, or bust... That's ridiculously unfair.

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10-13-2010, 03:03 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
No one is asking him to stop shooting for the corners (because most people realize that is why he pots as many goals as he does)... I, personally, want him to stop doing it when at terrible angles (and often from the freaking blue line) which results in it wrapping around the boards.

If you are fed a pass in the high slot and miss high and wide it hits the back boards and becomes a scrum behind the net, not an odd man rush the other way.

It is called playing smart and I, often times, don't personally think Carter plays very smart.
At the same time, that's how you catch goalies unaware. I mean, watch Ovechkin... if you think Carter shoots from bad angles and at inopportune times, you must HATE Ovechkin's game.

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10-13-2010, 03:06 PM
  #100
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There should be a Cartsiephan's Law akin to Godwin's Law.

"As an online discussion of the Philadelphia Flyers grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Jeff Carter approaches 1."
When the claim by online posters make Carter out to be the next coming of Wayne Gretzky it is fair to put a little reality check on things, just sayin', but I'll take it.

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