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Old
10-20-2010, 11:30 AM
  #1
Jarick
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Player Stats vs Expectations

Okay, there are no tidbits and the title is weird. If this is useless, let me know, no hard feelings.

Last year, I found it helpful to gauge the offensive performance of players to last year, as well as looking at who was being productive and not, etc. This year, I'll try just keeping it simple and doing top 5 and bottom 5. If it's more helpful, maybe I'll add in things like ice time, stats per 60 minutes, etc.

Anyways, what I do is pull the offensive stats for the players this year and last year and make some comparisons. This lets us know who is doing better, worse, or the same. It's kind of neat in my mind.

Keep in mind early in the season things will be skewed. As it plays out, players average out hot and cold streaks and what not.

Top 5 Production:

PlayerGPGAPts+/-GPGPPGSPG
Matt Cullen5358-10.601.602.00
Marek Zidlicky3134-10.331.331.67
Mikko Koivu524620.401.202.60
Martin Havlat505510.001.003.00
Antti Miettinen514510.201.004.00

Bottom 5 Production:

PlayerGPGAPts+/-GPGPPGSPG
Chuck Kobasew5000-50.000.001.40
Clayton Stoner2000-10.000.000.50
Brad Staubitz400000.000.000.00
Eric Nystrom5000-50.000.001.20
Greg Zanon500000.000.001.00

Most Improved:

PlayerPrev GPGCurr GPGPct ChgPrev PPGCurr PPGPct ChgPrev SPGCurr SPGPct Chg
Matt Cullen0.200.60204%0.591.60170%2.412.00-17%
Marek Zidlicky0.080.33333%0.551.33142%1.491.6712%
Antti Miettinen0.250.20-21%0.531.0088%2.224.0081%
Brent Burns0.060.40527%0.430.6041%2.212.408%
Cal Clutterbuck0.180.40128%0.280.4041%1.843.0063%

Least Improved:

PlayerPrev GPGCurr GPGPct ChgPrev PPGCurr PPGPct ChgPrev SPGCurr SPGPct Chg
Brad Staubitz0.060.00-100%0.130.00-100%0.510.00-100%
Greg Zanon0.020.00-100%0.190.00-100%0.731.0037%
Eric Nystrom0.130.00-100%0.230.00-100%1.111.208%
Clayton Stoner0.000.000%0.250.00-100%0.630.50-20%
Chuck Kobasew0.180.00-100%0.310.00-100%1.451.40-3%

Interpreting the Results:

The top 5 and bottom 5 performance is straightforward; I sort by points per game and that's their current stats.

For the most and least improved players, I take their performance last year (points per game, goals per game, shots per game) and do a percentage change on them. So if a player score 1 PPG last year and 1 PPG this year, there is 0% change. If he scored from 0.5 to 1 PPG, that's a 100% change. And from 1 to 0.5, that's a -100% change. That way, we can see ho is outperforming compared to last year and underachieving as well.

I added shots because it's interesting to see who's "snakebit" and who's getting lucky on those shots. Again, it will average out in a few weeks, so keep an eye.


Last edited by Jarick: 10-20-2010 at 11:35 AM.
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Old
10-20-2010, 11:42 AM
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mnwildgophers
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This is really interesting. It's hard to judge many of the results right now as we're only 5 games in, but it'll be a very nice gauge once we get 30-40 games in. Thanks for compiling this.

This also shows what a beast Cullen has been so far this year. 7 points on the PP already? It's just ridiculous that he's totally re-invigorated our PP.

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10-20-2010, 12:16 PM
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This is an interesting concept to follow over the course of a season!

As far as the stats go, I could have sworn that Havlat took more shots per game as every opportunity he has is close but no cigar.

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Old
10-20-2010, 12:22 PM
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Should be interesting to add Bouchard to the mix in a couple of weeks.

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10-20-2010, 12:57 PM
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The shots don't include missed or block shots, so that could be why they look low.

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10-20-2010, 01:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
The shots don't include missed or block shots, so that could be why they look low.
So the SOG stat next to Miettinens name doesnt stand for "Shots Off Glass"? I thought it was a little low

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10-20-2010, 01:24 PM
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Even a broken clock is right twice a day...

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10-20-2010, 01:57 PM
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totally interested in this. keeps the emotional part of my mind in check a bit. stats aside, though, I've noticed a difference this season in Zid's play. making much better decisions.

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10-20-2010, 02:23 PM
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totally interested in this. keeps the emotional part of my mind in check a bit. stats aside, though, I've noticed a difference this season in Zid's play. making much better decisions.
And actually shooting on the PP, and actually shooting on the PP from somewhere other than the blue line.

And not doing multiple Skoula impressions in his own zone.

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10-20-2010, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Vashanesh View Post
And actually shooting on the PP, and actually shooting on the PP from somewhere other than the blue line.

And not doing multiple Skoula impressions in his own zone.
Thats because the guy on the other point can shoot as well. Not hard for the other team to figure out where the shot was gonna come from when Johnsson, Schultz or even Havlat was on the other side.

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10-20-2010, 03:07 PM
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Wow, completely different reaction than the old boards, where I got panned for bringing up stats because they're "for liars".

I'll dig around and try and find more interesting and useful stats for next week.

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10-20-2010, 03:12 PM
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Well stats don't tell the whole story, but they are an interesting thing to use against the expectations and observations while watching the game as the combined tells a more detailed story. That's one of the reasons why I think this is so interesting.

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10-20-2010, 03:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
Wow, completely different reaction than the old boards, where I got panned for bringing up stats because they're "for liars".

I'll dig around and try and find more interesting and useful stats for next week.
Well, those of us that spent enough time on the old boards know exactly who you're talking about...

I'm going to just say it: I'm glad he's not here.

Edit: Keep it up though, I *LOVE* stats, I just don't have the patience to organize them as well as you seem to be able to.

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10-20-2010, 03:17 PM
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Thats because the guy on the other point can shoot as well. Not hard for the other team to figure out where the shot was gonna come from when Johnsson, Schultz or even Havlat was on the other side.
Absolutely agree, but I think his movement has a lot to do with it too. Last night was a great example, he was sliding around between the point and the halfwall all night on the PP.

It's that lateral movement from a shooter that's just DEADLY if they know when to pull the trigger and when to pass.

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10-20-2010, 04:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vashanesh View Post
Well, those of us that spent enough time on the old boards know exactly who you're talking about...

I'm going to just say it: I'm glad he's not here.

Edit: Keep it up though, I *LOVE* stats, I just don't have the patience to organize them as well as you seem to be able to.
I agree.

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10-20-2010, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Vashanesh View Post
Absolutely agree, but I think his movement has a lot to do with it too. Last night was a great example, he was sliding around between the point and the halfwall all night on the PP.

It's that lateral movement from a shooter that's just DEADLY if they know when to pull the trigger and when to pass.
I agree that quick puck/player movement is exactly what has the PP working so well. It's just that you cant give just one guy any credit/blame for that.

On Zidlicky's goal for example: Yes Zid does a great job of sliding down low to get a shot off but it doesnt work if Miettinen doesnt go from the half wall to the front of the net or if Cullen doesnt bring the puck from the right point to the center of the ice.

I guess you could give just one guy most of the credit, but that guy would be Dave Bahr and im not sure Wild fans are ready to give any of the coaches credit for anything.

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10-20-2010, 04:15 PM
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I agree that quick puck/player movement is exactly what has the PP working so well. It's just that you cant give just one guy any credit/blame for that.

On Zidlicky's goal for example: Yes Zid does a great job of sliding down low to get a shot off but it doesnt work if Miettinen doesnt go from the half wall to the front of the net or if Cullen doesnt bring the puck from the right point to the center of the ice.

I guess you could give just one guy most of the credit, but that guy would be Dave Bahr and im not sure Wild fans are ready to give any of the coaches credit for anything.
100% agree with all of that, though I might be OK with giving Dave Bahr some preliminary kudos.

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10-20-2010, 04:23 PM
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100% agree with all of that, though I might be OK with giving Dave Bahr some preliminary kudos.
Yea, funny how much better the coaches look when the players actually give a decent effort for 60 minutes.

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10-20-2010, 04:57 PM
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Wow, completely different reaction than the old boards, where I got panned for bringing up stats because they're "for liars".
Always appreciated them myself.

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10-21-2010, 03:15 AM
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of course the stats doesn't say the whole truth but mixing up stats and the performance that you actually watch yourself is the best way, so keep it up!

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10-21-2010, 12:34 PM
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Jarick
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This might be fun, too:

TeamPtsPts/GPGFAGAASOG/GPPP%PK%FO%
Minnesota Wild51.003.152.3628.445.885.21.0
League Rank2017720251143

So far we're middle of the pack in terms of points earned per game and penalty kill. We're scoring, but our defense is not as good. We're really low in shots per game, but our power play and faceoffs are fantastic.

Any other team stats that would be handy to track?

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Old
10-21-2010, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
This might be fun, too:

TeamPtsPts/GPGFAGAASOG/GPPP%PK%FO%
Minnesota Wild51.003.152.3628.445.885.21.0
League Rank2017720251143

So far we're middle of the pack in terms of points earned per game and penalty kill. We're scoring, but our defense is not as good. We're really low in shots per game, but our power play and faceoffs are fantastic.

Any other team stats that would be handy to track?
Thanks for all the stats!

I don't know if anyone else feels this way, but I always find it interesting to see how many penalties teams take on average.

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Old
10-21-2010, 12:51 PM
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Dr Jan Itor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarick View Post
This might be fun, too:

TeamPtsPts/GPGFAGAASOG/GPPP%PK%FO%
Minnesota Wild51.003.152.3628.445.885.21.0
League Rank2017720251143

So far we're middle of the pack in terms of points earned per game and penalty kill. We're scoring, but our defense is not as good. We're really low in shots per game, but our power play and faceoffs are fantastic.

Any other team stats that would be handy to track?
Damn, we suck at faceoffs.

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Old
10-21-2010, 12:56 PM
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What are your guys' thoughts on how long Cullen can keep up his 130 point pace this year?

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Old
10-21-2010, 12:59 PM
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Dr Jan Itor
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What are your guys' thoughts on how long Cullen can keep up his 130 point pace this year?
Halfway into next year.

Just kidding, but if he gets to 70, I'll be very happy. He'll probably keep going at a very good clip for a handful more games.

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