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How much $ will it cost to re-sign the Group II line?

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Old
10-30-2010, 11:15 AM
  #1
RangerBoy
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How much $ will it cost to re-sign the Group II line?

We'll start first with the center Artem Anisimov. Group II this summer with no arbitration rights.

Look at some of the comparables from 2010. Group II with no arbitration rights.

Sam Gagner-2 years/$4.55 million
James Neal-2 years/$5.75 million
Martin Hanzal-2 years/$3.6 million
David Perron-2 years/$4.3 million
Bryan Little-3 years/$7.15 million

Anisimov is on pace for a 63 point season. The Neal contract. He had a 55 point season in 09-10 after a 37 point season in 08-09. He got close to $3 million AAV. AA had 28 points last season as a fourth line center. 50 plus points this season. AA will be in line for Neal's contract.

Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan are on pace for 80 and 90 point seasons respectively. If they get 60-70 points each,they are going to get close to or in excess of $4 million per. Group II's with arbitration rights. Nik Zherdev got $3.9 million in arbitration.

Under the current CBA,Callahan can become a group III in the summer of 2012. CBA expires in September 15,2012. Dubinsky would be a group III in 2013 if the group III remains at the age of 27 in the new CBA.

David Backes is looking for $5 million per as a group III this summer. He'll stay in St.Louis for between $4-$5 million. Closer to $5 million than $4 million.

Mike Fisher got 5 years/$21 million about 3 years when he was about to become a group III. His game is comparable to Callahan's. A long term deal for Callahan buys out his group III years. He has 1 group II year remaining.

Ryan Kesler got 6 years/$30 million which includes 4 group III years. Travis Zajac got 4 years/$15.55 million which includes 1 group III year. Kurt Overhardt represents both of those players in addition to Dubinsky.

The Rangers can point to David Bolland's contract of 5 years/$16.875 million which includes 1 group III year. Bolland signed that contract he didn't have arb rights. That might not be a bad deal to offer AA.

It's going to cost the Rangers most of their salary cap space this summer to re-sign those 3 players.

No bonus cushion available for 2011-12 season because the CBA expires in September 2012. Can not rollover the money when CBA expires.

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10-30-2010, 11:18 AM
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i saw something on espn bout the nhl cap going up by as much as 4m if they get a new TV contract with espn...any truth in that?

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10-30-2010, 11:54 AM
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First of all, NHL revenues should slightly go up next season if the economy continues to improve. More importantly, a new U.S. television deal should be struck early next year. If the additional television revenue is pumped directly into the salary-cap number, the salary cap is expected to rise by at least $3.5-$4.5 million, since the new television deal should increase by at least $100 million a season. This will help give teams like the Devils some salary-cap solace.
it was from buccigross thing on the devils resigning parise.
http://espn.go.com/nhl/notebook/_/pa...course-staches

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10-30-2010, 12:38 PM
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First of all, NHL revenues should slightly go up next season if the economy continues to improve. More importantly, a new U.S. television deal should be struck early next year. If the additional television revenue is pumped directly into the salary-cap number, the salary cap is expected to rise by at least $3.5-$4.5 million, since the new television deal should increase by at least $100 million a season. This will help give teams like the Devils some salary-cap solace.
A lot wrong with that statement.

First, next year's salary cap will be based on this year's Hockey Related Revenue (which would only include the current rights fee from Versus, plus the revenue-sharing agreement with NBC). When a new television rights deal is reached next year, it will affect the 2012-13 salary cap (unless some upfront money from the new rights holder is included in 2010-11 Hockey Related Revenue).

Second, when the new television rights deal does kick into the salary cap calculation, that revenue would not be "pumped directly into the salary-cap number," which is how he came up with his number -- $100 million divided by 30 clubs. The players' share of Hockey Related Revenue is 57%. Therefore, if the new television rights deal brings in an additional $100 million relative to the current deal, that's an additional $57 million into the pot. And that would be assuming the players' share and the salary cap calculation don't change under the current CBA.

To be safe, say a modestly improved TV deal could add a million or two to the cap.


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10-30-2010, 12:43 PM
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As always, thanks, RangerBoy, for posting the reality of the situation.

2011 summer:

Priority #1 is to resign Dubi, Arty, and Cally.

Priority #2 is to draft well, again.

Priority #3 is to sign Kreider, Werek, Hagelin, and McIlrath to pro contracts.

People need to face the facts. The Rangers are NOT going to sign a Richards, trade for a Lecavalier, or anything even closely resembling that.

The Rangers are going with the young, homegrown players and locking them up long term.

This is going to be a VERY good team once these kids are locked in and all on the roster.

This is Dubinsky, Callahan, and Staal's team. Once Dru's contract is gone, those will be the captains. Cally-C, Dubi-A, Staal-A.

The reality is, they're going to allow Rozsival and Drury's contracts expire.

At that point, only Gaborik and Lundqvist are going to be the high-priced veterans.

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10-30-2010, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by RangerBoy View Post
We'll start first with the center Artem Anisimov. Group II this summer with no arbitration rights.

Look at some of the comparables from 2010. Group II with no arbitration rights.

Sam Gagner-2 years/$4.55 million
James Neal-2 years/$5.75 million
Martin Hanzal-2 years/$3.6 million
David Perron-2 years/$4.3 million
Bryan Little-3 years/$7.15 million

Anisimov is on pace for a 63 point season. The Neal contract. He had a 55 point season in 09-10 after a 37 point season in 08-09. He got close to $3 million AAV. AA had 28 points last season as a fourth line center. 50 plus points this season. AA will be in line for Neal's contract.

Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan are on pace for 80 and 90 point seasons respectively. If they get 60-70 points each,they are going to get close to or in excess of $4 million per. Group II's with arbitration rights. Nik Zherdev got $3.9 million in arbitration.
After 10 games, you're ready to predict that Anisimov will get 63 points, and that Dubinsky and Callahan both get 60 or 70? I think that's a little bit ridiculous.

Dubinsky and Callahan will probably get around 4 million per even if they don't hit that mark. Anisimov will probably get the kind of deal Dubinsky got. $2.5 mill for 2 years or so.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
As always, thanks, RangerBoy, for posting the reality of the situation.

2011 summer:

Priority #1 is to resign Dubi, Arty, and Cally.

Priority #2 is to draft well, again.

Priority #3 is to sign Kreider, Werek, Hagelin, and McIlrath to pro contracts.

People need to face the facts. The Rangers are NOT going to sign a Richards, trade for a Lecavalier, or anything even closely resembling that.
I think you need to face the fact that the Rangers will be one of the primary contenders for Brad Richards, and that one of the players on this line is most likely not going to be here next season. Considering one is a center, and another is a guy that you just don't trade, no matter what, it seems pretty clear which one of the three that would be. Your second line wingers can't be making more than 8 million combined. That's not good cap management.

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The Rangers are going with the young, homegrown players and locking them up long term.
The salary cap makes it very difficult to keep ALL of your young homegrown players, especially when not a single one of them is a star player, but they all still want to get paid. No team in this league has found success solely with young, homegrown players, especially when, again, none of them are offensive standouts.

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This is going to be a VERY good team once these kids are locked in and all on the roster. This is Dubinsky, Callahan, and Staal's team. Once Dru's contract is gone, those will be the captains. Cally-C, Dubi-A, Staal-A. The reality is, they're going to allow Rozsival and Drury's contracts expire. At that point, only Gaborik and Lundqvist are going to be the high-priced veterans.
It's not a VERY good team now, so why is it going to be a VERY good team later with the same players here? We're barely over .500 10 games in, and we haven't played a single top team yet.

The players this team has, the players on the way...you're still missing a couple of big pieces. You can't even begin to call this team a VERY good team until at least one of those holes has been filled. They're going to make a big push to do that with Richards, and for the first time in ages, they'll be doing the right thing in turning to the free agent market.

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10-30-2010, 01:10 PM
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I know everyone is loving that line (myself including)... HOWEVER, remember the hot start our entire team had the first month. Let's see if they can keep it up.

And just for the record, I think they will...To an extent. obviously.

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10-30-2010, 01:51 PM
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If Anisimov, Callahan and Dubinsky keep up this pace, I think the Rangers would be more than happy to pay them what they deserve. The odds of that actually happening are not so good. Players have gotten off to hot starts before.

Also, if Torts rolls them out there at the current pace for much longer, they will definitely tail off.

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10-30-2010, 03:04 PM
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Typical Sting. OMG. The same guy who trashes Gomez and always finds a way to defend Drury. Poor Drury doesn't have the proper wingers so that's the reason why he isn't successful. Richards will be 31 years old this spring. He is not coming to New York unless the Rangers give him a ridiculous long-term contract worth in excess of $7 plus million per when two of their top young players are centers. That's good cap management. That philosophy has worked so well for the Rangers. The CBA expires in 2012. Management is looking to lower the cap in the next CBA. The players want a cap on escrow. So the Rangers are going to sign Richards to a long-term contract in the last season of the current CBA when the system won't be the same. Wonderful cap management.

Ridiculous? You've got Cam Fowler shrined in the Hockey Hall of Fame. Cam is sure taking his sweet time coming back from a stiff neck. Yesterday,Randy Carlyle was telling the media about Fowler being available to play against Jersey while Fowler said he needs more time. Cammy is really doing a lot to shake the "soft" label. He better keep his head up when he finally returns before someone takes him out with another head shot. He's no Brett Favre.

What deal did Dubinsky get? 2 years?$3.7 million. Anisimov has a big season and he's getting more than 2 years for $2.5 million. ON PACE. Read it again.

Wolski got 2 years/$7.6 million from Phoenix. Wolski has put up better numbers than Dubinsky and Callahan. Wolski had 65 points last season. Previous seasons. 50,48 and 42 points. Bypassed salary arbitration. Callahan's highest point total is 40.

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10-30-2010, 03:47 PM
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im thinking about 10 mil to sign the 3 players.

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10-30-2010, 04:04 PM
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It would be a great problem to have if Cally, AA and Dubinsky get close to the numbers as projected.. Sign them to the contracts discussed and let them be a big part of the team future for a long time.

It is however a long season and usually things play out over an 82 game season. Consistency seems to be a tough thing to maintain. We shall see as it is a great start to the season for these (3) players.. They do have great chemistry and it is very possible they can maintain this consistency. Home grown players doing well!

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10-30-2010, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
As always, thanks, RangerBoy, for posting the reality of the situation.

2011 summer:

Priority #1 is to resign Dubi, Arty, and Cally.

Priority #2 is to draft well, again.

Priority #3 is to sign Kreider, Werek, Hagelin, and McIlrath to pro contracts.

People need to face the facts. The Rangers are NOT going to sign a Richards, trade for a Lecavalier, or anything even closely resembling that.
The Rangers are going with the young, homegrown players and locking them up long term.

This is going to be a VERY good team once these kids are locked in and all on the roster.

This is Dubinsky, Callahan, and Staal's team. Once Dru's contract is gone, those will be the captains. Cally-C, Dubi-A, Staal-A.

The reality is, they're going to allow Rozsival and Drury's contracts expire.

At that point, only Gaborik and Lundqvist are going to be the high-priced veterans.
There are 2 things severely wrong with the bolded portion above, and your mindset in general:

1. Any Ranger fan thats followed the team closely for the past several years seriously cant believe that the organization is 100% committed to a youth movement. There is one reason why Sather didnt blow the bank yet again with silly free agent signings (although he tried with the silliest he could achieve in Derek Boogaard) - because he couldnt - because he cap ****ed himself and this team so bad that hes handcuffed. Buying into the concept that this team and our GM is beyond being major players on the free agent market is nothing more than wishful thinking until further notice.

2. With that said, while we have a relatively deep prospect pool, we are missing top-end talent, which is something you either dont believe or just choose to ignore. We can keep churning out these 2/3rd liners, and thats OK - certainly needed, but the ironic part is even when this young core is all set, we WILL need a couple of key free agent signings when Drury/Rozsival come off the books to be true contenders.

If you think that this current core of prospects, plus a Gaborik/Lundqvist entering their 30's is enough to compete for a Cup, then you are sorely mistaken. UFA signings are going to be made, and they should be because this team is going to need some more top-end talent. The key is going to be to MAKE SURE that the free agent talent IS actually top-end.

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10-30-2010, 04:19 PM
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Any team can compete for a cup on any given year, and we certainly don't need a "coveted #1 center UFA acquisition" to get us any closer.

I don't know how anyone could have watched the progression of Dubinsky and Anisimov and say their potential is 2nd-3rd line. 1st-2nd line is a hell of a lot closer to the reality.

Only area this team needs UFA bolstering is defense, and we may need one guy to replace the two of Frolov/Prospal next year.

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10-30-2010, 04:42 PM
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Typical Sting. OMG. The same guy who trashes Gomez and always finds a way to defend Drury. Poor Drury doesn't have the proper wingers so that's the reason why he isn't successful.
I defend Drury because I like the way he plays the game (unlike Gomez). I never wanted EITHER of them at the price they were signed for. That's the point. That's the difference here. They weren't worth overpaying for. Richards is.

Also, I didn't say that Drury isn't successful because of a lack of wingers. He spent his time in Buffalo playing with Mike Grier. The reason Drury doesn't provide offense on this team is because, unlike Buffalo, he isn't placed in front of the net on a power play unit with 4 other high skill players.

Quote:
Richards will be 31 years old this spring. He is not coming to New York unless the Rangers give him a ridiculous long-term contract worth in excess of $7 plus million per when two of their top young players are centers. That's good cap management. That philosophy has worked so well for the Rangers. The CBA expires in 2012. Management is looking to lower the cap in the next CBA. The players want a cap on escrow. So the Rangers are going to sign Richards to a long-term contract in the last season of the current CBA when the system won't be the same. Wonderful cap management.
It would be a big mistake, IMO, to go forward with the assumption that Stepan is the answer for first line center. I just don't think he's that player, and no one should take that as me putting him down. Those players are few and far between. Richards is one of them. Henrik Lundqvist is going to be 29 years old in the spring, and so is Marian Gaborik.

Let's say we move forward without a major acquisition at center (and again, I'm not advocating trading for Lecavalier, just Richards or Spezza if the Sens decide to trade him, which they should not and probably will not do). We'll give Stepan and Anisimov about 2 seasons to step up to the plate and prove they are a strong enough option at first line center. What if neither is? What if both are very nice, strong second line centermen, but not an answer to Crosby/Backstrom/Kopitar/Stamkos/Sedin/Kane (who is the Blackhawks real playmaker)? At this point, Lundqvist and Gaborik are both 31. Then what?

And I don't think Richards is going to get as ridiculous a contract as you expect him to. The best teams in the league already have great centers and not much cap space. That's why they're the best teams in the league. The list of suitors will not be that long for him, and of the ones that are there, I think the Rangers are one of, if not the best, fits for him, and vice versa. Who is going to pursue him? There will be 8-9 interested teams, with only 3-4 ready to make serious offers. We'll be one of them. His contract, however large it will be, will only be troublesome for a year, because when Drury and Rozsival's deals are off the books, it won't be so crazy to have three big contracts on the books when all three players are worth the money and produce results (Henrik, Gaborik, Richards).

There is nothing wrong with free agency when you only dole out big dollars to players that are worth them. That's what well-run teams have been doing for a long time. The problem is overpaying bums. Richards is no bum.

Quote:
Ridiculous? You've got Cam Fowler shrined in the Hockey Hall of Fame. Cam is sure taking his sweet time coming back from a stiff neck. Yesterday,Randy Carlyle was telling the media about Fowler being available to play against Jersey while Fowler said he needs more time. Cammy is really doing a lot to shake the "soft" label. He better keep his head up when he finally returns before someone takes him out with another head shot. He's no Brett Favre.
I've got Cam Fowler enshrined in the HHOF? What are you talking about? I just like him more than McIlrath, but the guy I really wanted them to pick wasn't Fowler. It was Tarasenko.

Quote:
What deal did Dubinsky get? 2 years?$3.7 million. Anisimov has a big season and he's getting more than 2 years for $2.5 million. ON PACE. Read it again.
I meant 2 or 2.5 PER season. Right now, we're 10 games into the season. There about 75-80 players around the league on pace for a PPG season, or better. Who cares what he's on pace for now? The end result is what matters.

Quote:
Wolski got 2 years/$7.6 million from Phoenix. Wolski has put up better numbers than Dubinsky and Callahan. Wolski had 65 points last season. Previous seasons. 50,48 and 42 points. Bypassed salary arbitration. Callahan's highest point total is 40.
My guess is if you offered either Callahan or Wolski to any team in the league, a large majority would take Callahan, which is why I think he's in line for a solid raise. Fans really don't understand, I think, just how valuable Ryan Callahan is to this team, or how valuable he would be to any team. Hopefully, his agent isn't going to take full advantage of that. If I'm John Tortorella, and Glen Sather asks me for any kind of input into roster moves, the first thing out of my mouth is, "Glen, before we discuss anything, I want to make one thing perfectly clear. Unless you're acquiring Crosby, Ovechkin, Doughty, Stamkos, or maybe two or three other guys, you never, ever trade Ryan Callahan."

I don't think the same can be said about Dubinsky, even if he outscores Callahan, which he probably will. But if both are asking for a nice chunk of change, I think he's the guy that goes.

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10-30-2010, 04:56 PM
  #15
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Any team can compete for a cup on any given year, and we certainly don't need a "coveted #1 center UFA acquisition" to get us any closer.

I don't know how anyone could have watched the progression of Dubinsky and Anisimov and say their potential is 2nd-3rd line. 1st-2nd line is a hell of a lot closer to the reality.

Only area this team needs UFA bolstering is defense, and we may need one guy to replace the two of Frolov/Prospal next year.
Spot on. I don't think this team will need too much in terms of forward help IF our current young players (Grachev, Stepan, Anisimov) live up to their potential. The defense is definitely where we could use the UFA help. I didn't understand why this team decided to trade for Eminger when they could have acquired a guy like Anton Babchuk in free agency. Not only would he have cost us a cool 1.4 million, he has a bomb of a shot, as we saw. It would only help us on the PP, which struggled last year.

The UFA's in the year that rosi and drury come off the books is fairly strong, we should look a lot better then.

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10-30-2010, 05:05 PM
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Spot on. I don't think this team will need too much in terms of forward help IF our current young players (Grachev, Stepan, Anisimov) live up to their potential. The defense is definitely where we could use the UFA help. I didn't understand why this team decided to trade for Eminger when they could have acquired a guy like Anton Babchuk in free agency. Not only would he have cost us a cool 1.4 million, he has a bomb of a shot, as we saw. It would only help us on the PP, which struggled last year.

The UFA's in the year that rosi and drury come off the books is fairly strong, we should look a lot better then.
What potential is that? The hyperbolic potential conveyed around here, or more in line with what their actual ceilings are projected to be? Its quite a difference, and the gap seems to be growing wider.

And Anton Babchuk? C'mon - we need some defensemen that actually know how to play defense.

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10-30-2010, 05:09 PM
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NHL 11 video game mentality still reigns supreme around here.

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10-30-2010, 05:37 PM
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NHL 11 video game mentality still reigns supreme around here.
You're absolutely right - it is NHL 11 mentality to move ahead with the belief that every prospect on the team is going to be a superstar. This isn't HUT. You can't make every prospect you draft a 95 overall with training consumables.

Advocating to trade some serious assets for a better player who you then sign to a long-term contract, as I'm doing, is not NHL 11 mentality. I'm not trying to trade Eminger for Richards.

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10-30-2010, 05:38 PM
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it really all depends on term. slats has shown recently that he likes to do the 2 year deal and then the longer term one with the RFA's. supposing anisimov scores 50-60 points and Callahan/dubinsky get around 60 I'd expect the following

Anisimov - 2yrs, 2.5MM cap hit
Dubinsky/Callahan - 4 yrs, 3.5MM cap hit

dubi/cally might look to pavelski as a comparable but i think his track record was more established before he signed his long term deal.

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10-30-2010, 05:45 PM
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No body said they're going to be superstars.

There's a SALARY CAP.

The Rangers are not going to go out and get another 7+ mil contract. Not happening.

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10-30-2010, 05:48 PM
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What potential is that? The hyperbolic potential conveyed around here, or more in line with what their actual ceilings are projected to be? Its quite a difference, and the gap seems to be growing wider.

And Anton Babchuk? C'mon - we need some defensemen that actually know how to play defense.
Anton Babchuk: 9GP 2G 3A +3 ATOI 17~18 min

Steve Eminger: 7GP 0G 1A -1 ATOI 12~13 min

You decide which one you want. Eminger get almost 0 PP time, with Babchuk getting around 3 minutes a game. so they are filling the same role at ES and PK. Once again, maybe you should watch the games and determine for yourself who is better and who has skill to make this team improve.

Grachev and Stepan are 20. Years. Old. Some players don't figure it out right away. The talent is there, we shall see if they reach it or not. Anisimov is 21 and playing on what is equal to our top line and a line that is putting up what is a PPG. You tell me what their ceilings are, I'll tell you they are still high.

The gap that seems to be shrinking is the patience that Ranger fans appear to display. Everyone wanted them to stay the course in the offseason, and now our prospects suck cause they aren't off to the start we would like them to. IN FACT, I could argue that Stepan (5pts in 9 games) and Anisimov (7pts in 9 games) are off to solid starts. Nobody expected them to be doing this, and take out the hatty step had in buffalo, and putting up 2A in 8 games isn't as bad as it sounds, seeing as he was not supposed to be on this team during camp.

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10-30-2010, 05:56 PM
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Richards will be 31 years old this spring. He is not coming to New York unless the Rangers give him a ridiculous long-term contract worth in excess of $7 plus million per when two of their top young players are centers. That's good cap management. That philosophy has worked so well for the Rangers. The CBA expires in 2012. Management is looking to lower the cap in the next CBA. The players want a cap on escrow. So the Rangers are going to sign Richards to a long-term contract in the last season of the current CBA when the system won't be the same. Wonderful cap management.
Just one thing, if the cap is adjusted in any way with a new CBA -- trust me -- so will the existing contracts. Hypotetically.

There is no sense what-so-ever to lower the cap with 20% and let all existing contracts roll on, the following year would just be absurd. Last lockout a cap was put in place and all contracts were rolled back 25%.

So the factor of a lower cap with a new CBA should not effect contracts signed today.

Another thing is that it most certainly of course wouldn't hurt us to have little money commited and a lot of room going into a new CBA.

But personally, I think thats a bad idea. A bad UFA signing is a UFA signed to bad environment. If you have a team full of hard working players, its a good idea to sign a Gaborik. If you have a team filled with guys like Kovalev, Nedved, Holik, Carter, Messier and co -- it would be a bad idea to sign a Gaborik.

We have a bunch of good looking kids now, this is not 2003, to develop them properly they need someone to help out. We have Gabby in place, Drury and Prospal can't be relied upon. IF we could get someone who can log minutes and run a PP, that would really help the youth we have to develop.

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10-30-2010, 05:57 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by Garfinkel1 View Post
I know everyone is loving that line (myself including)... HOWEVER, remember the hot start our entire team had the first month. Let's see if they can keep it up.

And just for the record, I think they will...To an extent. obviously.
The talk about Ani, Dubi and Cally being true 1st line players is nothing but ridiculos...

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10-30-2010, 06:02 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by SupersonicMonkey View Post
NHL 11 video game mentality still reigns supreme around here.
There is always a big mistake being made in NY. Not trapping when everyone else trapped. Believing that the JJ plus players that would shoot the puck would make us contenders. Icing a all UFA team.

The next/current one is probably that we won't have the guts to go for it with the current platform we have. The future isn't in 5 years when the kids gets paid market value. Its in the transition period when they are still good and cheap.

Getting a worthless vet is a big mistake. Not getting anyone, is though not per automatic a good move.

1. This team needs a goto player offensively.

2. And we need help on the blueline.

Thats my opinion.

And I have a hard time seing that I won't be right.

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10-30-2010, 06:05 PM
  #25
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Callahan: 3 years, 9 million

Dubinsky: 2 yrs, 7 million

Anisimov: 5 years, 2.5 mil cap hit

I'd love to see these kind of deals.

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