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11-02-2010, 01:45 PM
  #1
MattVenca
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flames depth analysis

For those of you who haven't read it, the background to the information in this post can be found if you search for 'Leafs Depth Analysis' that I posted under the Toronto Maple Leafs forum.

Long story short, I've worked with Brian Burke in the past in scouting and know his model for a championship team very well.
The reason why Calgary is having a challenge right now is pretty clear when you put their team up against Brian Burke's forward grid.

Top 6 Forwards:
-Must produce a minimum 350 points
-Ideal scenario is 3 A-line, 3 B-line in the top 6. Formula may work with 2A and 4B players.
-To be A-line you produce minimum 60 points a season.
-To be B-line you produce minimum 50 points a season.

Bottom 6 Forwards:
-Must produce a minimum 200 points
-Ideal scenario is 3A-line, 3B-line players.
-To be A-line you must produce at least 20 points offensively.
-To be B-line you must specialize in one of: grit, faceoffs, PK, fighting.

Now, if you apply this to Calgary's team, you see that:

Top 6 - 355 pts

A - Iginla 80
A - None
A - None

B - Bourque 55
B - Jokinen, Stajan, Langkow 165
B - Tanguay 55

Bottom 6: 210 pts

A - Hagman 45
A - Morrison 40
A - Glencross, Kotalik 80

B - Conroy 35
B - None
B - Meyer 10

------

In short, Calgary is able to produce the amount of offense required. However the skill sets to win a hockey game are not there. They have three 2nd line centers, only 1/3 of a true top line and no real 4th line at all.

At some point I'll probably apply this analysis to the defense too.
The goaltending is fine with Kipper.

But this team is not going to be championship calibre unless two of Stajan Jokinen Langkow and Morrison are taken out of the picture, and another top-line player is added.

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Old
11-02-2010, 02:16 PM
  #2
GoFlames
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MattVenca View Post
For those of you who haven't read it, the background to the information in this post can be found if you search for 'Leafs Depth Analysis' that I posted under the Toronto Maple Leafs forum.

Long story short, I've worked with Brian Burke in the past in scouting and know his model for a championship team very well.
The reason why Calgary is having a challenge right now is pretty clear when you put their team up against Brian Burke's forward grid.

Top 6 Forwards:
-Must produce a minimum 350 points
-Ideal scenario is 3 A-line, 3 B-line in the top 6. Formula may work with 2A and 4B players.
-To be A-line you produce minimum 60 points a season.
-To be B-line you produce minimum 50 points a season.

Bottom 6 Forwards:
-Must produce a minimum 200 points
-Ideal scenario is 3A-line, 3B-line players.
-To be A-line you must produce at least 20 points offensively.
-To be B-line you must specialize in one of: grit, faceoffs, PK, fighting.

Now, if you apply this to Calgary's team, you see that:

Top 6 - 355 pts

A - Iginla 80
A - None
A - None

B - Bourque 55
B - Jokinen, Stajan, Langkow 165
B - Tanguay 55

Bottom 6: 210 pts

A - Hagman 45
A - Morrison 40
A - Glencross, Kotalik 80

B - Conroy 35
B - None
B - Meyer 10

------

In short, Calgary is able to produce the amount of offense required. However the skill sets to win a hockey game are not there. They have three 2nd line centers, only 1/3 of a true top line and no real 4th line at all.

At some point I'll probably apply this analysis to the defense too.
The goaltending is fine with Kipper.

But this team is not going to be championship calibre unless two of Stajan Jokinen Langkow and Morrison are taken out of the picture, and another top-line player is added.
So almighty guru thanks for the prediction. None of us are saying teh Flames are a contender, just that it is not as bad as people say. Oh and Burke's model is flying into a nearly champ team and bringing in generally one star player (Pronger) etc...

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Old
11-02-2010, 02:18 PM
  #3
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and where are you getting these numbers from...

also how does Meyer make the list and not Backlund who has more NHL games and has produced at a higher clip

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11-02-2010, 02:26 PM
  #4
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Okay, I'm not going to say that Calgary is a championship calibre team, but this analysis is overly simplistic, makes too many assumptions, and completely ignores defensive ability. Not too mention it was done without taking a good look at our current lines (Langkow and Kotalik are injured, Backlund and Jackman exist).

You're not looking at who's playing with who (chemistry) and considering that impact on points. For example, Tanguay is not a 55 point player with Iginla. Subsequently, Stajan is more than a 55 point player with the two of them.

We haven't had trouble scoring this year at all, it's been defense that has been the problem (I'm talkign team defense, not defensmen necessarily). Of course Iginla isn't producing very well, but that's been made up for by excellent secondary scoring for now. If this team had been playing even a bit closer to it's potential defensively so far this year we'd have 4-6 more points than we do right now... how does this system take that into account? It doesn't seem to.

This is a fine, helpful system for the off season when you're building your team and trying to figure out what the missing pieces are, but in terms of mid-season evaluation and analysis, it's quite useless. Look at the Devils: Kovalchuk, Parise, Langenbrunner, Zajac, Arnott, freaking Martin Broduer... what's that doing for them? Doesn't take into account the whole situation. Just a poor way to analyze a team in general.

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Old
11-02-2010, 02:32 PM
  #5
tfong
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duck91 View Post
Okay, I'm not going to say that Calgary is a championship calibre team, but this analysis is overly simplistic, makes too many assumptions, and completely ignores defensive ability. Not too mention it was done without taking a good look at our current lines (Langkow and Kotalik are injured, Backlund and Jackman exist).

You're not looking at who's playing with who (chemistry) and considering that impact on points. For example, Tanguay is not a 55 point player with Iginla. Subsequently, Stajan is more than a 55 point player with the two of them.

We haven't had trouble scoring this year at all, it's been defense that has been the problem (I'm talkign team defense, not defensmen necessarily). Of course Iginla isn't producing very well, but that's been made up for by excellent secondary scoring for now. If this team had been playing even a bit closer to it's potential defensively so far this year we'd have 4-6 more points than we do right now... how does this system take that into account? It doesn't seem to.

This is a fine, helpful system for the off season when you're building your team and trying to figure out what the missing pieces are, but in terms of mid-season evaluation and analysis, it's quite useless. Look at the Devils: Kovalchuk, Parise, Langenbrunner, Zajac, Arnott, freaking Martin Broduer... what's that doing for them? Doesn't take into account the whole situation. Just a poor way to analyze a team in general.
Iginla is on pace for a 50-60 point season right now

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11-02-2010, 02:58 PM
  #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tfong View Post
Iginla is on pace for a 50-60 point season right now
And BMO is on pace for 80 not 40. We can do this all day, it doesn't really matter.

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Old
11-02-2010, 03:52 PM
  #7
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Know the players on a roster before you go evaluate it. You could just go to calgaryflames.com but you were too lazy to even do that. When the 5-6 forwards you didn't know existed are added to that roster, your whole argument is thrown out the window.

Obviously you are unaware of Langkow's setbacks. It is looking more and more likely he will never play again. You don't seem to know Backlund exists. You don't seem to know Moss exists. For whatever reason, you've heard of Meyer but not Jackman. We have an enforcer as well, Ivanans. To say "you don't even have a 4th line" is just false information based on your own inability to do research, or watch a team before you comment on it.


Last edited by saillias: 11-02-2010 at 03:58 PM.
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Old
11-02-2010, 08:31 PM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duck91 View Post
Okay, I'm not going to say that Calgary is a championship calibre team, but this analysis is overly simplistic, makes too many assumptions, and completely ignores defensive ability. Not too mention it was done without taking a good look at our current lines (Langkow and Kotalik are injured, Backlund and Jackman exist).

You're not looking at who's playing with who (chemistry) and considering that impact on points. For example, Tanguay is not a 55 point player with Iginla. Subsequently, Stajan is more than a 55 point player with the two of them.

We haven't had trouble scoring this year at all, it's been defense that has been the problem (I'm talkign team defense, not defensmen necessarily). Of course Iginla isn't producing very well, but that's been made up for by excellent secondary scoring for now. If this team had been playing even a bit closer to it's potential defensively so far this year we'd have 4-6 more points than we do right now... how does this system take that into account? It doesn't seem to.

This is a fine, helpful system for the off season when you're building your team and trying to figure out what the missing pieces are, but in terms of mid-season evaluation and analysis, it's quite useless. Look at the Devils: Kovalchuk, Parise, Langenbrunner, Zajac, Arnott, freaking Martin Broduer... what's that doing for them? Doesn't take into account the whole situation. Just a poor way to analyze a team in general.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duck91 View Post
And BMO is on pace for 80 not 40. We can do this all day, it doesn't really matter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by saillias View Post
Know the players on a roster before you go evaluate it. You could just go to calgaryflames.com but you were too lazy to even do that. When the 5-6 forwards you didn't know existed are added to that roster, your whole argument is thrown out the window.

Obviously you are unaware of Langkow's setbacks. It is looking more and more likely he will never play again. You don't seem to know Backlund exists. You don't seem to know Moss exists. For whatever reason, you've heard of Meyer but not Jackman. We have an enforcer as well, Ivanans. To say "you don't even have a 4th line" is just false information based on your own inability to do research, or watch a team before you comment on it.
Yup. Amazing how someone not remotely familiar with the Flames starts a thread then seems to quickly vanish lol

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Old
11-02-2010, 09:07 PM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MattVenca View Post

Top 6 Forwards:
-Must produce a minimum 350 points
-Ideal scenario is 3 A-line, 3 B-line in the top 6. Formula may work with 2A and 4B players.
-To be A-line you produce minimum 60 points a season.
-To be B-line you produce minimum 50 points a season.

Bottom 6 Forwards:
-Must produce a minimum 200 points
-Ideal scenario is 3A-line, 3B-line players.
-To be A-line you must produce at least 20 points offensively.
-To be B-line you must specialize in one of: grit, faceoffs, PK, fighting.
If your top 3 forwards produce 180 points your team isn't going far.

Bottom 6 getting 200 points? I doubt there is a team in the league who's bottom 6 forwards get 200 points. Washington's got 153, Chicagos got 133.

Worked with Brian Burke? I bet you did.

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11-03-2010, 04:12 AM
  #10
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lol what came her to say has been said, so all i have to say is.. LOL gtfo

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Old
11-03-2010, 04:47 AM
  #11
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In before close. What is this guy on? Nice formula(not). Where did you get your intel there buddy? We all know the formula, you don't have to have worked with Burke before to know exactly what's going on and how to achieve success. Also, if you worked with Burke before, so did I.

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Old
11-03-2010, 08:44 AM
  #12
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I'm sure selling popcorn at the ACC means that technically you work "with" Burke.

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Old
11-03-2010, 10:13 AM
  #13
MattVenca
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Not even sure why I'm bothering to reply this, although I will say that this is the last post I'll ever make on the Calgary Flames forum solely due to the self-propelled ignorance of the fans.

Of course the model is incomplete; what I posted is not even 20% of Brian's model for what he calls a 'championship calibre team'. The analysis of forwards goes deeper into a combination of size and grit with a premium placed on leadership, attitude and character. He doesn't care that someone like Antropov would score 70 points with Kovalchuk but only 40 points playing with Bergfors. Burke and Nonis are so accurate at predicting a player's output, irrespective of his linemates, its scary.
On top of this, there is a deep analysis of the defensive pairings (top4/bottom2), goaltending, financial projection, discrepancies for growth, an injury scenario analysis, an AHL/NHL depth matrix, and it goes on. They have a small full-time staff of IT developers that write software for them to manage this model. It's got stats going back till the 80s for players and teams, with obscure statistics like shots blocked in the last minute of play, number of minutes spent with more than 3 skaters in the offensive zone, etc. Once all the metrics are applied it all gets spit out into this big spreadsheet, and they can see very easily where their holes are. The entire model is based on Brian Burke's personal perspective of a Top 6 offensive core, a bottom 6 group of plumbers, a top 4 D that can score, hit, and log minutes, and a bottom 2 that are special team guys.

I didn't come here trying to say Calgary is good or bad -- but I will say that the management's plan going into this season was one of desperation rather than strategy. Every GM has a model to build a team, its part of their strategy that they'll present at an interview. I think Sutter had one and, out of desperation, abandoned it on January 31st trying to get his team into the playoffs. And then stepped further away from it in the offseason.

All I wanted to show is that from a very basic high-level view of Burke's model, its easy to see where the Flames holes are up front and how a small tweak would make a significant difference according to BB's model.

I don't follow the Flames, I haven't really followed any team except the ones I've worked for. And yes, I have worked as an amateur and pro scout intermittently over the past 12 years. No, it's not something I'm bragging about - believe me, unless you are a media-facing guy like a coach/GM/player, working in sports is actually very demanding, stressful, unpredictable, and from my perspective average in pay.

Even though I don't follow other teams, its easy to see that Burke's model has some merit because when it is applied - even in basic low-detail form - to all 30 NHL teams, you can see which teams have a strong core and future and which don't. Example, LA Kings most definitely do. Washington Capitals most definitely do this year. Ottawa Senators do not.

Anyways, that's all from me folks. Don't bother replying to me because I won't be reading it and I'm not coming back to the Flames forum.

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Old
11-03-2010, 07:23 PM
  #14
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I would say that is a VERY optimistic list.

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11-03-2010, 08:10 PM
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Shame on us for running a hockey god off our forum.

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11-03-2010, 08:21 PM
  #16
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Shame on us for running a hockey god off our forum.
Exactly. We should feel shame for mocking his admittedly incomplete analysis.

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11-03-2010, 08:53 PM
  #17
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The wrath of the Maple Leafs be upon us!


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Old
11-03-2010, 09:35 PM
  #18
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Of course the model is incomplete;
So we all agree then! What's the problem?

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11-03-2010, 11:17 PM
  #19
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we ahould all be ashamed! chased the poor guy outta here. GTFO

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Old
11-03-2010, 11:18 PM
  #20
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Ok, this one is done .

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