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Carter close to signing 10-year deal (post #441 and #675); Leino update (# 675)

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Old
11-11-2010, 10:47 AM
  #301
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
As noted above, the Richards deal is NOT a benchmark for anything. He signed a 12-year contract, and, therefore, what he's making AAV cannot be measured against a "normal" contract.

So, for a 5-year contract (what I would like to see them offer Carter), the benchmark is 7.12M a year according to you.

I really want Carter, but I don't want him at 7.12M a year.
Well in your opinion it isn’t. IMO the team doesn’t want to have anyone going forward on the team to have a > cap hit than Richards or at least not very far from his cap hit. We shall see. So the cap hit is the bench mark. Where you coming up with the 7.12 number? Carter imo isn’t worth having on a long term deal. 5 years I agree would be perfect.

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11-11-2010, 10:48 AM
  #302
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Well considering Gagne netted you Walker and a 4th on an expiring, 5m cap hit, what could you possibly expect today for a 33 yo with 4 years at a 6.5m cap hit?

A 2nd round pick would be highway robbery.
Ah, well, if you avoid going way over the cap on D, and don't have a player that isn't waiving his NTC to go anywhere, you can get a bit more leverage.

I don't disagree that we may not get a 2nd... but that isn't expecting a whole lot in return. The key is to avoid taking cap back, and that is actually far more difficult. It's actually kind of hard to NOT get players in return.

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11-11-2010, 10:51 AM
  #303
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Well in your opinion it isn’t. IMO the team doesn’t want to have anyone going forward on the team to have a > cap hit than Richards or at least not very far from his cap hit. We shall see. So the cap hit is the bench mark. Where you coming up with the 7.12 number? Carter imo isn’t worth having on a long term deal. 5 years I agree would be perfect.
Over the next 5 years, Mike Richards is paid an AAV of $7.12M. The cap hit matters to the team and the salary cap, it is a completely irrelevant number to these guys, because they ain't getting paid the cap hit. If you want to compare Carter (who won't be signing a 12-year deal, I hope) to Richards' contract, then you need to look in the shorter window... and in the shorter window. Richards is getting paid a hell of a lot more than $5.75M.

And if you use Richards' $5.75M number as the "ceiling" for cap hits, then you're not going to be signing too many good young forwards and D (again, outside of big, long-term contracts).

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11-11-2010, 10:55 AM
  #304
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Originally Posted by IrishSniper87 View Post
You realize Richards signed a 12-year cap friendly deal, right?

Richie's actual salary this season and the next 3

2010-11 $6,400,000
2011-12 $6,600,000
2012-13 $8,400,000
2013-14 $7,600,000

Carter asking for $7 each year for the next 3 is not completely unreasonable. Would I give it to him? No, but $6.25 or $6.5 is fair (granted I'd rather he get $6 or $6.2 or something).

There are more then enough teams who would happily pay Carter $6.5, and he knows it.

If he is willing to take $6 or $6.25, you happily give it to him, especially since Briere is 33 and one of Z or Leino is most certainly departing this offseason.

Keep the best players (Richards, Carter, Giroux) and fill in the wingers as best you can. We got Z for nothing and Leino for next to nothing (OKT ROFL!!).

There is no reason we can't continue to find good wingers willing to play with one of our 3 awesome centers for cheap.

Heck, I'd happily trade Hartnell for picks or Simmonds for cap space. The amount of idiot penalties will drop and JVR gets increased ice time to learn how to be a better power forward (an offseason move however).

Resorting to cheap wingers means we can keep our D, centers and Bob together for awhile. We have youth at all the KEY positions. With this core, we can be a serious contenders for years.

So you are willing to weaken other spots on the roster, including the most dominant line on the roster, or ditch the one of the most clutch playoff players in Flyers history just to make sure you sign Carter? You centers according to how Laviolette has put the lines on the ice are: Richards, Briere, Giroux, Betts. This is also the centers who got this team to game 6 of the SCF's.

The problem is if you sign Carter to a long term big deal(assume $6.5) you are putting $44.391mill into just 9 players on your roster(Richards, Carter, Briere, Giroux, Pronger, Timonen, Meszaros, Coburn, and Carle). Not only that but outside of Carle and Coburn whose contracts expire in 2013 and Timonen in 2014 the rest of the contracts all expire in 2015 or later. I understand that the idea is depth at center down the middle, but the focus this season has been build from the defense out, which means tough choices need to be made at center possibly.

And here is the RFA compensation for an offer sheet:

FREE AGENT CLASSIFICATIONS

GROUP 2 - SUBJECT TO COMPENSATION AND RIGHT TO MATCH

These players have been tendered a qualifying offer by their respective Clubs and are subject to draft-choice compensation and right to match. The draft choice compensation scale is based on compensation offered by the new Club:

OFFER
COMPENSATION
$994,433 or below None
Over $994,433 to $1,506,716
Third-round choice
Over $1,506,716 to $3,013,434 Second-round choice
Over $3,013,434 to $4,520,150 First-round and third-round choice
Over $4,520,150 to $6,026,867 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,026,867 to $7,533,584 Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $7,533,584 Four first-round choices

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11-11-2010, 10:56 AM
  #305
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Originally Posted by Hovercraft View Post
Its not unreasonable to think Briere could get at least a marginal return like a 2nd or 3rd and maybe a 3rd liner. But its moot since he wont waive his NMC



Did you see what Gomez returned? Gagne return was so low because tampa was the onyl team he would waive his NTC to go to. So it would depend on how many teams Briere was willing to go to
Considering Gomez only had a limited NTC, he could only list 3 teams not to be traded to, it was alot easier to deal him.

When you only have one or two teams a player says he wants to go to, well then you're handcuffed a little bit more than NY.

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11-11-2010, 10:59 AM
  #306
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
And here is the RFA compensation for an offer sheet:

FREE AGENT CLASSIFICATIONS

GROUP 2 - SUBJECT TO COMPENSATION AND RIGHT TO MATCH

These players have been tendered a qualifying offer by their respective Clubs and are subject to draft-choice compensation and right to match. The draft choice compensation scale is based on compensation offered by the new Club:

OFFER
COMPENSATION
$994,433 or below None
Over $994,433 to $1,506,716
Third-round choice
Over $1,506,716 to $3,013,434 Second-round choice
Over $3,013,434 to $4,520,150 First-round and third-round choice
Over $4,520,150 to $6,026,867 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,026,867 to $7,533,584 Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $7,533,584 Four first-round choices
No, we won't know the compensation for a RFA until next summer, it changes every year. Carter, however, shouldn't go for anything less than two 1sts, 2nd, and 3rd value if you're talking about trading him.

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11-11-2010, 11:02 AM
  #307
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Originally Posted by IrishSniper87 View Post
And you might want to look at Gagne now, Cartsiephan, his career might be over sooner then later.
What does this have to do with Gagne? The fact is Gagne is on an expiring contract. If he gets hurt he does not hurt you because he is LTIR's, and if healthy he could produce and move on next season thus opening up $5.25mill in needed cap space. The move for Meszaros and signing of Coburn made this deal necessary, but if Homer had been a bit more patient it could have worked out just fine with Gagne. The fact that Homer got Walker and his contract is a joke, $2mill for that piece of crap?

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11-11-2010, 11:04 AM
  #308
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
So you are willing to weaken other spots on the roster, including the most dominant line on the roster, or ditch the one of the most clutch playoff players in Flyers history just to make sure you sign Carter? You centers according to how Laviolette has put the lines on the ice are: Richards, Briere, Giroux, Betts. This is also the centers who got this team to game 6 of the SCF's.

The problem is if you sign Carter to a long term big deal(assume $6.5) you are putting $44.391mill into just 9 players on your roster(Richards, Carter, Briere, Giroux, Pronger, Timonen, Meszaros, Coburn, and Carle). Not only that but outside of Carle and Coburn whose contracts expire in 2013 and Timonen in 2014 the rest of the contracts all expire in 2015 or later. I understand that the idea is depth at center down the middle, but the focus this season has been build from the defense out, which means tough choices need to be made at center possibly.

And here is the RFA compensation for an offer sheet:

FREE AGENT CLASSIFICATIONS

GROUP 2 - SUBJECT TO COMPENSATION AND RIGHT TO MATCH

These players have been tendered a qualifying offer by their respective Clubs and are subject to draft-choice compensation and right to match. The draft choice compensation scale is based on compensation offered by the new Club:

OFFER
COMPENSATION
$994,433 or below None
Over $994,433 to $1,506,716
Third-round choice
Over $1,506,716 to $3,013,434 Second-round choice
Over $3,013,434 to $4,520,150 First-round and third-round choice
Over $4,520,150 to $6,026,867 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,026,867 to $7,533,584 Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $7,533,584 Four first-round choices
Yeah, let's trade our 25 year old goal scoring center so we can keep our way more expensive, way older and way smaller 33 year old who has maybe 1 good season or so left in him. Real solid move there, champ.

For me, I value keeping good young players around and building around them. Carter is one of those guys, Briere is not. I appreciate what Briere has done for us in the playoffs, I really do, but these longterm deals are about what you WILL get, not what you have RIGHT NOW. Carter will most likely be PPG the next 3 seasons (or close to it, either way, he will score plenty) where as Briere's numbers will inevitably as his age catches up to him.

I agree you can't trade Briere right now (even though I would). Howeve, this offseason when Briere is approaching 34, I ABSOLUTELY let him go for next to nothing.

Just because the HBL line is good now, doesnt mean **** when talking about a year from now, or 3 years from now. Finding cheap wingers to play with Carter in 3 years is hella easy compared to finding somebody to play with a 35 or 36 year old Briere who has seen his offense fall off and who already has zero defensive skill.

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11-11-2010, 11:11 AM
  #309
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
This is faulty logic 101. Just because Carter has the most trade value -- doesn't he have the highest trade value for a reason? -- does not mean trading him improves the Flyers. I mean, seriously, the ridiculousness of this comes back to the fact that you would serious consider Simmonds, a late 1st, and late 2nd for Carter.

I'll take the guy I can pencil in to average 35 goals a year over the next five years, thank you. We can deal one of our D.
Neither of us can speculate on the hypotheticals. Remember when the Phils moved Abreu? Two years later World Series Champs. The Red Sox moved Nomar Garciaparra and won the World Series. Teams trade players and improve. Not saying this needs to be done today or at all, but we as fans should not become so dependent on looking at the stats and think just because you lose a guy like Carter does not mean that what you get in return may help you achieve the ultimate goal. The problem is that the Flyers have guys who are already filling the role of center, so if Carter cannot produce and wants big money, bye, bye. If he wants a huge contract, multi-years and a NMC.....bye, bye. The Flyers have the advantage of players who are good enough to fill the needs of the team and a strong defense.

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11-11-2010, 11:14 AM
  #310
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Neither of us can speculate on the hypotheticals. Remember when the Phils moved Abreu? Two years later World Series Champs. The Red Sox moved Nomar Garciaparra and won the World Series. Teams trade players and improve. Not saying this needs to be done today or at all, but we as fans should not become so dependent on looking at the stats and think just because you lose a guy like Carter does not mean that what you get in return may help you achieve the ultimate goal. The problem is that the Flyers have guys who are already filling the role of center, so if Carter cannot produce and wants big money, bye, bye. If he wants a huge contract, multi-years and a NMC.....bye, bye. The Flyers have the advantage of players who are good enough to fill the needs of the team and a strong defense.
Flyers move Briere... two years later... Stanley Cup?

See, you can use that logic to target someone other than Carter.

But, then again, you have your sacred cows and lucifers.

Abreu was 32 when the Phils dealt him.

Nomar was 30, and he was beginning to breakdown. I'm actually pretty convinced he did 'roids (remember the SI cover?) and the Sox suspected it as well and were cutting their losses early. He only had 1 good year left in him (only 122 games) and was no longer capable of being an everyday SS.

Carter is a mid 20s goal scorer... those are prime years. Briere is an early 30s scorer--undersized at that--which is when you begin to see production plummet in association with ailments and the like.

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11-11-2010, 11:19 AM
  #311
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Considering we have Meszaros on our bottom pair half the time at $4, I support this idea.
But this contradicts the philosophy of Homer during this past offseason and it is a philosophy they should continue to focus on: build from the defense out. Now with Bobrovsky hopefully the goalie if the future it is even more important to ensure he has a defense in front of him.

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11-11-2010, 11:20 AM
  #312
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Over the next 5 years, Mike Richards is paid an AAV of $7.12M. The cap hit matters to the team and the salary cap, it is a completely irrelevant number to these guys, because they ain't getting paid the cap hit. If you want to compare Carter (who won't be signing a 12-year deal, I hope) to Richards' contract, then you need to look in the shorter window... and in the shorter window. Richards is getting paid a hell of a lot more than $5.75M.

And if you use Richards' $5.75M number as the "ceiling" for cap hits, then you're not going to be signing too many good young forwards and D (again, outside of big, long-term contracts).
I hear what your saying 100%. Using Richards cap hit as the ceiling is imo what the team wants to do. That is why I can see a long term deal, 8+ years, for Carter as Shooter wants the lower cap hit and doesn’t really care about the years. They may pay someone on a 1 or 2 year deal say 7mm per but only imo for the very short term. Now if they give carter 7.12 for 5 years that is terrible. As he isn’t worth that kind of coin.

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11-11-2010, 11:26 AM
  #313
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Flyers move Briere... two years later... Stanley Cup?

See, you can use that logic to target someone other than Carter.

But, then again, you have your sacred cows and lucifers.

Abreu was 32 when the Phils dealt him.

Nomar was 30, and he was beginning to breakdown. I'm actually pretty convinced he did 'roids (remember the SI cover?) and the Sox suspected it as well and were cutting their losses early. He only had 1 good year left in him (only 122 games) and was no longer capable of being an everyday SS.

Carter is a mid 20s goal scorer... those are prime years. Briere is an early 30s scorer--undersized at that--which is when you begin to see production plummet in association with ailments and the like.
Again, is trading the most clutch player in Flyers history at a ppg really the answer when the goal would be to get value in return? The theory I am relying on is that you are getting some value in return for Carter. As you said earlier, rarely does the NHl work where a team just takes $5mill of salary, there is always something coming back, is this one RW who scores 30 making $4mill on an expiring contract, a prospect and a 1st rd draft pick? Who knows, but Homer should 100% be looking at this option if contract negotiations begin to shift to a longer contract than 5yrs/$6mill and no clauses.

Maybe option #1 would work? But that would mean Carter had better step up in the playoffs which he has yet to show.

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11-11-2010, 11:35 AM
  #314
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Again, is trading the most clutch player in Flyers history at a ppg really the answer when the goal would be to get value in return? The theory I am relying on is that you are getting some value in return for Carter. As you said earlier, rarely does the NHl work where a team just takes $5mill of salary, there is always something coming back, is this one RW who scores 30 making $4mill on an expiring contract, a prospect and a 1st rd draft pick? Who knows, but Homer should 100% be looking at this option if contract negotiations begin to shift to a longer contract than 5yrs/$6mill and no clauses.

Maybe option #1 would work? But that would mean Carter had better step up in the playoffs which he has yet to show.
You shouldn't have done that.

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11-11-2010, 11:38 AM
  #315
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Originally Posted by IrishSniper87 View Post
Yeah, let's trade our 25 year old goal scoring center so we can keep our way more expensive, way older and way smaller 33 year old who has maybe 1 good season or so left in him. Real solid move there, champ.

For me, I value keeping good young players around and building around them. Carter is one of those guys, Briere is not. I appreciate what Briere has done for us in the playoffs, I really do, but these longterm deals are about what you WILL get, not what you have RIGHT NOW. Carter will most likely be PPG the next 3 seasons (or close to it, either way, he will score plenty) where as Briere's numbers will inevitably as his age catches up to him.

I agree you can't trade Briere right now (even though I would). Howeve, this offseason when Briere is approaching 34, I ABSOLUTELY let him go for next to nothing.

Just because the HBL line is good now, doesnt mean **** when talking about a year from now, or 3 years from now. Finding cheap wingers to play with Carter in 3 years is hella easy compared to finding somebody to play with a 35 or 36 year old Briere who has seen his offense fall off and who already has zero defensive skill.
We just have different expectations of where Carters numbers are going to be, I think he is more likely going to be the 60-65pts than the 80-85. Different views on our expectations of what the team should look like and which of the moves would be a smarter business/team move for the organzition, which is fine. No one is right here, it is going to be up to Homer and management to see where/whether the numbers match.

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11-11-2010, 11:43 AM
  #316
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You shouldn't have done that.
40 games played, 46pts, find someone else in O&B who has put up those type of numbers.

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11-11-2010, 11:48 AM
  #317
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And BTW, for all the Cartsie haters, it is a good discussion to have because it shows the diverse opinions of how we as fans view this team. The ultimate goal for each one of us is to see a Flyers parade down past City Hall/Penn Sq and down Broad St.

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11-11-2010, 11:53 AM
  #318
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
40 games played, 46pts, find someone else in O&B who has put up those type of numbers.
I was referring more to the 'clutch' argument.

I can do you one better, though:

1974 17 1042 35 2.02 12 5 1 2 525 0.933
1975 15 922 29 1.89 10 5 1 4 370 0.922

Guess who?

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11-11-2010, 11:53 AM
  #319
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
40 games played, 46pts, find someone else in O&B who has put up those type of numbers.
He was referencing the fact that the concept of a "clutch" player is on the order of fairies, dragons, and mermaids.

They don't exist.

Which I have argued to folks before. Over long hauls, pretty much everyone produces to their own average rate.

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11-11-2010, 11:58 AM
  #320
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Originally Posted by chimrichalds18 View Post
I was referring more to the 'clutch' argument.

I can do you one better, though:

1974 17 1042 35 2.02 12 5 1 2 525 0.933
1975 15 922 29 1.89 10 5 1 4 370 0.922

Guess who?
Dave Schultz

Yes I know they are goalie numbers.

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11-11-2010, 12:07 PM
  #321
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He was referencing the fact that the concept of a "clutch" player is on the order of fairies, dragons, and mermaids.

They don't exist.

Which I have argued to folks before. Over long hauls, pretty much everyone produces to their own average rate.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. I know what I saw!

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11-11-2010, 12:07 PM
  #322
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Yeah, let's trade our 25 year old goal scoring center so we can keep our way more expensive, way older and way smaller 33 year old who has maybe 1 good season or so left in him. Real solid move there, champ.

For me, I value keeping good young players around and building around them. Carter is one of those guys, Briere is not. I appreciate what Briere has done for us in the playoffs, I really do, but these longterm deals are about what you WILL get, not what you have RIGHT NOW. Carter will most likely be PPG the next 3 seasons (or close to it, either way, he will score plenty) where as Briere's numbers will inevitably as his age catches up to him.

I agree you can't trade Briere right now (even though I would). Howeve, this offseason when Briere is approaching 34, I ABSOLUTELY let him go for next to nothing.

Just because the HBL line is good now, doesnt mean **** when talking about a year from now, or 3 years from now. Finding cheap wingers to play with Carter in 3 years is hella easy compared to finding somebody to play with a 35 or 36 year old Briere who has seen his offense fall off and who already has zero defensive skill.
Yeah but think about it this way. Briere has a NMC and an undesirable contract...which means if he is traded, it has to be to a team he wants to go to, and that team has to want him. With all of those limitations, you are not getting a good return for Briere.

On the other hand, Carter presents you no limitations and has the potential to get you a tremendous return.

In other words, if you trade Briere, you get to keep Carters production (probably around 80 points) the next 3 years, but lose a player for nothing. If you trade Carter, you get to keep Briere's production (75 points, 65 points, 55 points - estimate of next 3 years...not to mention dynamic playoff performances) AND you get the production over whoever you get in return for Carter. The return is debatable, but say you get a young scoring winger, the production of him and briere would be more than if you just kept Carter.

The obvious compromise is to keep both...but IF you had to trade one of them, I think trading Carter makes more sense. They should be able to keep both tho.

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11-11-2010, 12:17 PM
  #323
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Originally Posted by chimrichalds18 View Post
I was referring more to the 'clutch' argument.

I can do you one better, though:

1974 17 1042 35 2.02 12 5 1 2 525 0.933
1975 15 922 29 1.89 10 5 1 4 370 0.922

Guess who?
Only the Lord saves more than Bernie Parent.

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11-11-2010, 12:21 PM
  #324
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Originally Posted by Mota View Post
Yeah but think about it this way. Briere has a NMC and an undesirable contract...which means if he is traded, it has to be to a team he wants to go to, and that team has to want him. With all of those limitations, you are not getting a good return for Briere.

On the other hand, Carter presents you no limitations and has the potential to get you a tremendous return.

In other words, if you trade Briere, you get to keep Carters production (probably around 80 points) the next 3 years, but lose a player for nothing. If you trade Carter, you get to keep Briere's production (75 points, 65 points, 55 points - estimate of next 3 years...not to mention dynamic playoff performances) AND you get the production over whoever you get in return for Carter. The return is debatable, but say you get a young scoring winger, the production of him and briere would be more than if you just kept Carter.

The obvious compromise is to keep both...but IF you had to trade one of them, I think trading Carter makes more sense. They should be able to keep both tho.
If you trade Briere you have so much extra cap space you could sign a UFA or keep Zherdev(assuming he improves) or something. Like you said we can fit both, so if you trade Briere you have a lot of extra cap space.

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11-11-2010, 12:22 PM
  #325
IrishSniper87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Again, is trading the most clutch player in Flyers history at a ppg really the answer when the goal would be to get value in return? The theory I am relying on is that you are getting some value in return for Carter. As you said earlier, rarely does the NHl work where a team just takes $5mill of salary, there is always something coming back, is this one RW who scores 30 making $4mill on an expiring contract, a prospect and a 1st rd draft pick? Who knows, but Homer should 100% be looking at this option if contract negotiations begin to shift to a longer contract than 5yrs/$6mill and no clauses.

Maybe option #1 would work? But that would mean Carter had better step up in the playoffs which he has yet to show.
The goal is NOT to get value in return, the goal is to KEEP the talent we have in the salary cap era.

The Flyers are one of the top teams in the league right now. They CANT get better with the salary cap in place (beyond goalie play, the Flyers are one of the deepest teams in terms of talent skating for them). However, they can maintain a high level of play by making smart moves to keep talent.

I choose the star player entering his prime over the aging star whose production is going to nose dive in coming seasons.

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