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Carter close to signing 10-year deal (post #441 and #675); Leino update (# 675)

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Old
11-11-2010, 11:33 AM
  #326
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
He was referencing the fact that the concept of a "clutch" player is on the order of fairies, dragons, and mermaids.

They don't exist.

Which I have argued to folks before. Over long hauls, pretty much everyone produces to their own average rate.
Absolutely 100% not true. There are players who will raise their game during the playoffs and certain players who disappear all together.

Let's take player like Petr nedved:
playoffs= 71gp, 42pts, that is .59ppg
reg season= 982gp, 717pts, that is .73ppg

and Jeff Carter:
playoffs= 41gp, 19pts, that is .46ppg
reg season= 381gp, 277pts, that is .72ppg

and lastly Danny Briere:
playoffs= 86gp, 87pts, that is 1.01ppg
reg season= 666gp, 526pts, .78ppg

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11-11-2010, 11:35 AM
  #327
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There is way more to it than just "stepping up" or disappearing. Carter has been injured the past 2 playoffs.

And im sure if you took Briere's first few NHL seasons out of his regular season average he would be much closer to 1.01

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11-11-2010, 11:39 AM
  #328
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Absolutely 100% not true. There are players who will raise their game during the playoffs and certain players who disappear all together.

Let's take player like Petr nedved:
playoffs= 71gp, 42pts, that is .59ppg
reg season= 982gp, 717pts, that is .73ppg

and Jeff Carter:
playoffs= 41gp, 19pts, that is .46ppg
reg season= 381gp, 277pts, that is .72ppg

and lastly Danny Briere:
playoffs= 86gp, 87pts, that is 1.01ppg
reg season= 666gp, 526pts, .78ppg

I dont think people can deny the fact some people play harder and better in the playoffs than regular season. Or reverse (See A-Rod in new york for a while). I think we should keep carter, but if you want to trade Carter that is fine. I just wish you had a better plan for this season than just Simmonds. I want the cup.

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11-11-2010, 11:45 AM
  #329
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Originally Posted by Hovercraft View Post
If you trade Briere you have so much extra cap space you could sign a UFA or keep Zherdev(assuming he improves) or something. Like you said we can fit both, so if you trade Briere you have a lot of extra cap space.
Well, we can fit both assuming Homer is willing to move someone like Carle, or get rid Walker, Shelley, Leighton.

It all depends on what they get in return for Carter. If its a player like Bobby Ryan, then you have a player of similar production for basically the same cap hit Carter has now for the next 5 years, so you save on whatever cap would go to Carters new contract, get to keep briere, and resign Leino. If they get a cheaper offensive player, then they would have the cap space to resign leino and zherdev (or another FA) too. It all depends tho.

I just dont like the idea of giving a player away. Briere is going to be productive here until his contracts up...why lose that for nothing? At least by moving Carter you gain cap space and enough assets to make up for him.

Hopefully Carter signs for a 6.5 cap hit, they sign Leino for 2 mil or so, and they get rid of the players they should get rid of to make room for that.

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Old
11-11-2010, 11:47 AM
  #330
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Absolutely 100% not true. There are players who will raise their game during the playoffs and certain players who disappear all together.

Let's take player like Petr nedved:
playoffs= 71gp, 42pts, that is .59ppg
reg season= 982gp, 717pts, that is .73ppg

and Jeff Carter:
playoffs= 41gp, 19pts, that is .46ppg
reg season= 381gp, 277pts, that is .72ppg

and lastly Danny Briere:
playoffs= 86gp, 87pts, that is 1.01ppg
reg season= 666gp, 526pts, .78ppg
When Briere was 25, his playoff numbers looked like this: 6 GP 3 points.

So there you go, real exciting.

Briere didnt START being a good playoff performer (mostly due to lack of chances) until he was 27. Acting like Carter cant improve his playoff numbers (at only 25) and that Briere's wont go down with age is ridiculous.

The comparison is a 25 year old 35+ goal scorer ENTERING HIS PRIME to a 33 year old goal scorer exiting his prime. Please Cartsiphan, take a reality check.

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11-11-2010, 11:54 AM
  #331
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Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
Whoa, whoa, whoa. I know what I saw!
Been hanging with Hagrid and Norbert, eh?



Back OT: If there is no such thing as a "clutch" player, does this mean that there is no such thing as a Joe Thornton-type "not clutch" player?

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11-11-2010, 11:55 AM
  #332
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Originally Posted by IrishSniper87 View Post
The goal is NOT to get value in return, the goal is to KEEP the talent we have in the salary cap era.

The Flyers are one of the top teams in the league right now. They CANT get better with the salary cap in place (beyond goalie play, the Flyers are one of the deepest teams in terms of talent skating for them). However, they can maintain a high level of play by making smart moves to keep talent.
I choose the star player entering his prime over the aging star whose production is going to nose dive in coming seasons.
But this is where we disagree. The team can keep certain players but in a cap world if they are going to spend @$24mill on defense for 7 d-men and still need to address the other positions you cannot allocate another $25.2mill(total of $49.2mill) or 83% of your budget to what equates to 7 d-men and what equates to two lines(5 players).

You understand that you cannot move Briere without his consent of where he wants to go and you cannot waive him or try and move him without that consent? Do you also understand that moving Briere does nothing to help build from within or create cap flexibiliy by addressing areas of need? You have nothing to fill the holes that exist in the farm system and are still carrying several burdensome contracts, it is a game of cups. This is the value of Carter, he does not have those restrictions and as everyone wants to point out is a very good commodity in the organization. If he is as great and wanted as everyone points out there should be no problem getting four 1st rd picks or equal value back. As a GM you have to consider this as an option or you are going to hamstring the organization to what this core group has represented up to this year.........an unknown, are they the team that showed up in the playoffs or the regular season team who tuned out the coach was wildly inconsistent and made it into the playoffs on the last day of the season via a shootout of all things.

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11-11-2010, 12:06 PM
  #333
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
But this is where we disagree. The team can keep certain players but in a cap world if they are going to spend @$24mill on defense for 7 d-men and still need to address the other positions you cannot allocate another $25.2mill(total of $49.2mill) or 83% of your budget to what equates to 7 d-men and what equates to two lines(5 players).

You understand that you cannot move Briere without his consent of where he wants to go and you cannot waive him or try and move him without that consent? Do you also understand that moving Briere does nothing to help build from within or create cap flexibiliy by addressing areas of need? You have nothing to fill the holes that exist in the farm system and are still carrying several burdensome contracts, it is a game of cups. This is the value of Carter, he does not have those restrictions and as everyone wants to point out is a very good commodity in the organization. If he is as great and wanted as everyone points out there should be no problem getting four 1st rd picks or equal value back. As a GM you have to consider this as an option or you are going to hamstring the organization to what this core group has represented up to this year.........an unknown, are they the team that showed up in the playoffs or the regular season team who tuned out the coach was wildly inconsistent and made it into the playoffs on the last day of the season via a shootout of all things.
People act like we gave up assets for Briere in the first place. We didn't.

If I could move Briere for nothing, I would, just because out of everyone over 30 on this team, he strikes me at the guy who will 'disappear' the quickest.

Pronger and Timonen will still be solid and smart defenders, but Briere is out sized and as he slows, he will turn into a 3rd liner. His defense is awful and he is NOT a particularly good ES player anyway. He is a PP guy.

We have our own 1st round picks to build from within. Why move an asset like Carter for picks when most likely, none of those picks will ever have a single year equal to Carter?

The biggest disagreement here to me is that I want to keep value and shed age where as you want to shed a specific player you don't like and are protecting a LINE that has played well for roughly 30 games.

Lavi puts the lines together and it's his perogitive to put the HBL line out there, but it's Homer's job to ice the bets team he can year to year. I think this club is better off longterm WITH Carter by means of shedding guys like Carle or Hartnell, then without Carter.

Without Carter, all of a sudden our offense is kinda .... small and made up mostly of playmakers.

Like I said before, investing in Carter is investing in an entire line, as his linemates can be Powe or Nodl and Carter will still score.

I'd rather spend my money down the middle then on the wings. To me, Briere is a winger who can play center. Carter is a center.

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Old
11-11-2010, 12:09 PM
  #334
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Originally Posted by DrHamburg View Post
I dont think people can deny the fact some people play harder and better in the playoffs than regular season. Or reverse (See A-Rod in new york for a while). I think we should keep carter, but if you want to trade Carter that is fine. I just wish you had a better plan for this season than just Simmonds. I want the cup.
I do not know the answer to this either, that is why the GM is earning his keep and I still have a day job. I think as has been mentioned by the pro-sign Carter group is that a guy like Jeff Carter is irreplaceable and he is only going to get better. If that is the case than the value in return should be astronomical IMO. At the very least four 1st rd picks or a deal similar to what Lindros brought the Avs.

There is some irony as well, Eric Lindros. The Flyers traded away They received in the trade eventual Hart Trophy winner Peter Forsberg, as well as Ron Hextall, Chris Simon, Mike Ricci, Kerry Huffman, Steve Duchesne, a 1st round selection (Jocelyn Thibault) in 1993, a 1st round selection (later traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, later traded to the Washington Capitals—Nolan Baumgartner) in 1994, and $15,000,000 cash. Forsberg went on to win two Stanley Cups, Lindros got swept in his only appearance. The pieces of this trade made the Avs a SC Champ including the ability to trade for Roy which included Thibeault.

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11-11-2010, 12:21 PM
  #335
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
I do not know the answer to this either, that is why the GM is earning his keep and I still have a day job. I think as has been mentioned by the pro-sign Carter group is that a guy like Jeff Carter is irreplaceable and he is only going to get better. If that is the case than the value in return should be astronomical IMO. At the very least four 1st rd picks or a deal similar to what Lindros brought the Avs.

There is some irony as well, Eric Lindros. The Flyers traded away They received in the trade eventual Hart Trophy winner Peter Forsberg, as well as Ron Hextall, Chris Simon, Mike Ricci, Kerry Huffman, Steve Duchesne, a 1st round selection (Jocelyn Thibault) in 1993, a 1st round selection (later traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, later traded to the Washington Capitals—Nolan Baumgartner) in 1994, and $15,000,000 cash. Forsberg went on to win two Stanley Cups, Lindros got swept in his only appearance. The pieces of this trade made the Avs a SC Champ including the ability to trade for Roy which included Thibeault.
I want to point out that the odds of the #1 overall pick having a worse career then the #6 overall pick are so low, that in many ways the Avs got away with murder due to sheer luck.

In fact, it was Lindros' injury problems that prevented him from winning the cup. Lindros in his prime was one of the best NHL players the Flyers have ever had. Sadly, it didnt last as long as we had hoped.

If we could trade Carter for the #1 overall pick, that's a different story. However, your talking a first from a team who is trying to compete. You are most likely talking out of the top 10 to start.

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Old
11-11-2010, 12:24 PM
  #336
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Absolutely 100% not true. There are players who will raise their game during the playoffs and certain players who disappear all together.

Let's take player like Petr nedved:
playoffs= 71gp, 42pts, that is .59ppg
reg season= 982gp, 717pts, that is .73ppg

and Jeff Carter:
playoffs= 41gp, 19pts, that is .46ppg
reg season= 381gp, 277pts, that is .72ppg

and lastly Danny Briere:
playoffs= 86gp, 87pts, that is 1.01ppg
reg season= 666gp, 526pts, .78ppg
Let's break down Briere real quick. It's not always fair to take a players career vs career in the playoffs. Briere had some of his least productive years when his teams didn't make the playoffs which could have easily lowered that PPG average.

Let's take just the stats from seasons that Briere played in the playoffs.

In 6 trips to the playoffs his season and playoff stats look like:
Regular season: 363 points in 390 games for .93 points per game.
Playoffs: 87 points in 86 games for 1.01 points per game.

Wouldn't exactly call .08 points per game very clutch.


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11-11-2010, 12:31 PM
  #337
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
I do not know the answer to this either, that is why the GM is earning his keep and I still have a day job. I think as has been mentioned by the pro-sign Carter group is that a guy like Jeff Carter is irreplaceable and he is only going to get better. If that is the case than the value in return should be astronomical IMO. At the very least four 1st rd picks or a deal similar to what Lindros brought the Avs.

There is some irony as well, Eric Lindros. The Flyers traded away They received in the trade eventual Hart Trophy winner Peter Forsberg, as well as Ron Hextall, Chris Simon, Mike Ricci, Kerry Huffman, Steve Duchesne, a 1st round selection (Jocelyn Thibault) in 1993, a 1st round selection (later traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, later traded to the Washington Capitals—Nolan Baumgartner) in 1994, and $15,000,000 cash. Forsberg went on to win two Stanley Cups, Lindros got swept in his only appearance. The pieces of this trade made the Avs a SC Champ including the ability to trade for Roy which included Thibeault.
I haven't been around the boards for awhile, but I don't even know how to approach this type of "logic", if thats what you can call it. Somehow you took the words of someone saying he is "irreplaceable" to his value should be astronomical. Then compared him to Lindros...?

Irreplaceable does not equate to generational talent. Its a relative term depending who you are talking to number one. Secondly as someone else put it, we're trying to win a cup, so if you trade our best goalscorer you have to get something in return that betters your chances at the cup. As for trading him for a #1 pick, would we be better off with Hall this year than Carter? I think while arguable, the resounding response would be no.

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11-11-2010, 12:37 PM
  #338
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Another thread that turns into Cartsiephan vs HF Flyers

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11-11-2010, 12:49 PM
  #339
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Absolutely 100% not true. There are players who will raise their game during the playoffs and certain players who disappear all together.

Let's take player like Petr nedved:
playoffs= 71gp, 42pts, that is .59ppg
reg season= 982gp, 717pts, that is .73ppg

and Jeff Carter:
playoffs= 41gp, 19pts, that is .46ppg
reg season= 381gp, 277pts, that is .72ppg

and lastly Danny Briere:
playoffs= 86gp, 87pts, that is 1.01ppg
reg season= 666gp, 526pts, .78ppg
Dude, I don't really want to get into this conversation with you... it's like shooting fish in a barrel. Go out and read up on the topic... then get back to me. There is a relatively large amount of literature on the topic out there, and to put it bluntly, your casual acceptance of "clutch" existing based on superficial statistics is naive.

The concept of "clutch" develops primarily from two things.

1) What we can generally call sampling bias, which CannonGoBoom provided an example of.

2) The human desire to create narratives that involve heroes and goats.

The 2nd point is more a theory of mine than anything else, but if you ever have a conversation with a sportswriter that have an insatiable desire to place sports into arching narratives... which don't really allow for explanations like: one team was hot, and the other was cold.... **** happens.

Players don't really "step up," they play the same game in December that they're playing in April. There may be something to certain players games translating better to the playoff environment due to the way the game is officiated, but even that is terribly suspect... and even if that exists, it has nothing to do with being "clutch."

Over long stretches, players perform to their mean. They will have hot and cold runs, and if they have a hot run in the playoffs this allows them to weigh their performance upwards because if you're playing well there's a better chance your team will advance and you'll get to pad your stats even more (this is particularly true with goalies), whereas is if you're playing like crap you'll lose quickly and not bring your average down.

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11-11-2010, 12:51 PM
  #340
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Originally Posted by IrishSniper87 View Post
People act like we gave up assets for Briere in the first place. We didn't.

If I could move Briere for nothing, I would, just because out of everyone over 30 on this team, he strikes me at the guy who will 'disappear' the quickest.
Ok, so you now you have taken the salary off the books, fine. So long as Carter can show up in the playoffs and provide consistent play I am Ok with that. You will now need to seek players to fill the needs on the wings via UFA, the most expensive way to go and you have done nothing to help gain more depth in the farm system which is a huge organizational weakness.


Quote:
Pronger and Timonen will still be solid and smart defenders, but Briere is out sized and as he slows, he will turn into a 3rd liner. His defense is awful and he is NOT a particularly good ES player anyway. He is a PP guy.
His line is leading the team in esg's(Hartnell has 4, Briere has 3, and Leino has 2). Not as bad as you may think and he was second to Carter last season with 18 to Carters 20, contribute that to Carter or Briere or both if you wish.

W
Quote:
e have our own 1st round picks to build from within. Why move an asset like Carter for picks when most likely, none of those picks will ever have a single year equal to Carter?
We do not have a 2nd rd pick(we gave up both in the Carcillo and meszaros trades) and we are thin. We have a 1st, no 2nd, Pens 3rd, Flyers and Bolts 4th, no 5th, a 6th, and two 7th.

T
Quote:
he biggest disagreement here to me is that I want to keep value and shed age where as you want to shed a specific player you don't like and are protecting a LINE that has played well for roughly 30 games.
You are still going to get youth in return to fill the wing hypothetically because Carter is getting moved and you physically are getting a body in return to fill that void, moving Briere you move the salary but neglect the void and as others would point out the point production both regular season and post-season, unless Eric Wellwood and Nodl become 20 goals scorers that is a big hole.

Quote:
Lavi puts the lines together and it's his perogitive to put the HBL line out there, but it's Homer's job to ice the bets team he can year to year. I think this club is better off longterm WITH Carter by means of shedding guys like Carle or Hartnell, then without Carter.
Once again, shedding in the area of weakness and lack of depth or an area where Homer feels he needs to build out from and keeping an area of depth and a player who does not fit or moves other players where they may not be as productive just to accommodate that one single player. If I am Homer going forward you do not sacrifice on defense, you build out from there. Hartnell is a guy who knows his job, listen to his quotes, he knows he needs to get to the net and cause traffic, those players are important or else you become an entirely perimeter style team which do not have much success in the playoffs.

Quote:
Without Carter, all of a sudden our offense is kinda .... small and made up mostly of playmakers.

Like I said before, investing in Carter is investing in an entire line, as his linemates can be Powe or Nodl and Carter will still score.
Disagree here but if you keep Carter this is the type of linemates he should be paired with because it does not work otherwise. And get used to the routine turnovers and short offensive zone possession time which makes the 19-48-22 line so successful.

Quote:
I'd rather spend my money down the middle then on the wings. To me, Briere is a winger who can play center. Carter is a center.
I agree that Carter is primarily a center but Laviolette has decided to play him at wing and keep Briere and Giroux at center, this is the coaches choice which makes me kind of wonder where does he fit if the coach has decided to move him to a position where he is not going as successful because he thinks the other players on the roster are more capable. I do not have access to Laviolette but there has to be an underlying reason why Laviolette has made this choice, if he felt Carter was better than the other than he would have moved him back to center already.

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11-11-2010, 12:55 PM
  #341
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dude, just **** already. Seriously.. shut up about Carter.

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11-11-2010, 12:56 PM
  #342
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The point is not really whether or not Carter has had the opportunity to show that he can be very good in the playoffs. Whether he has or hasn't had that opportunity it can easily be said it's not indiciative of future performance for a variety of reasons like age and injury.

The point is that to pay a guy 6+ million, especially long term, he FIRST has to prove that he HAS AND WILL perform well in the playoffs.

Carter HAS NOT done that no matter how you slice it.

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11-11-2010, 12:56 PM
  #343
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Originally Posted by IrishSniper87 View Post
I want to point out that the odds of the #1 overall pick having a worse career then the #6 overall pick are so low, that in many ways the Avs got away with murder due to sheer luck.

In fact, it was Lindros' injury problems that prevented him from winning the cup. Lindros in his prime was one of the best NHL players the Flyers have ever had. Sadly, it didnt last as long as we had hoped.

If we could trade Carter for the #1 overall pick, that's a different story. However, your talking a first from a team who is trying to compete. You are most likely talking out of the top 10 to start.
The moral of the story is that the sum of the pieces are greater than the whole, this is it in black and white. Eric Lindros was not better than the pieces which were traded away. Eric Lindros had a great career, he is a favorite to Flyers fans to how he played the game, but he never won a Stanley Cup while Forsberg willed his team to win by coming up big and playing for the first Cup and having to depart during the second run due to a serious medical issue.

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11-11-2010, 12:59 PM
  #344
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
The moral of the story is that the sum of the pieces are greater than the whole, this is it in black and white. Eric Lindros was not better than the pieces which were traded away. Eric Lindros had a great career, he is a favorite to Flyers fans to how he played the game, but he never won a Stanley Cup while Forsberg willed his team to win by coming up big and playing for the first Cup and having to depart during the second run due to a serious medical issue.
i think there's more to it than pure willpower. it's not like Forsberg threw the team in a sack, climbed Mount Doom, and snatched the Stanley Cup out of Sauron's icy grip after striking him down.

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11-11-2010, 01:03 PM
  #345
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Dude, I don't really want to get into this conversation with you... it's like shooting fish in a barrel. Go out and read up on the topic... then get back to me. There is a relatively large amount of literature on the topic out there, and to put it bluntly, your casual acceptance of "clutch" existing based on superficial statistics is naive.

The concept of "clutch" develops primarily from two things.

1) What we can generally call sampling bias, which CannonGoBoom provided an example of.

2) The human desire to create narratives that involve heroes and goats.

The 2nd point is more a theory of mine than anything else, but if you ever have a conversation with a sportswriter that have an insatiable desire to place sports into arching narratives... which don't really allow for explanations like: one team was hot, and the other was cold.... **** happens.

Players don't really "step up," they play the same game in December that they're playing in April. There may be something to certain players games translating better to the playoff environment due to the way the game is officiated, but even that is terribly suspect... and even if that exists, it has nothing to do with being "clutch."

Over long stretches, players perform to their mean. They will have hot and cold runs, and if they have a hot run in the playoffs this allows them to weigh their performance upwards because if you're playing well there's a better chance your team will advance and you'll get to pad your stats even more (this is particularly true with goalies), whereas is if you're playing like crap you'll lose quickly and not bring your average down.

There are players who disappear in the NHL playoffs and there are guys who thrive. It is the true nature of the beast when it comes to the NHL and making it the best playoff sport out there. The game is different, the environment is tighter, more teams have the ability ot focus on a players tendencies and negate them all together. Some players dig a little deeper and make it happen. Not talking theories or sampling, we are talking about sports and a players ability to answer when the pressure is on.

If you have ever played competitive sports you have played with this type of individual, when things get time to convert they want to be the guy with the puck on his stick, the ball at his feet, or the QB of the team. DMac is a perfect example, when it gets tight he vomits on his shoes.

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11-11-2010, 01:08 PM
  #346
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Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
The point is not really whether or not Carter has had the opportunity to show that he can be very good in the playoffs. Whether he has or hasn't had that opportunity it can easily be said it's not indiciative of future performance for a variety of reasons like age and injury.

The point is that to pay a guy 6+ million, especially long term, he FIRST has to prove that he HAS AND WILL perform well in the playoffs.

Carter HAS NOT done that no matter how you slice it.
Richards got a 12 year contract with 1 assist and a -5 in 6 playoff games.

Moreover, this gets back to the fact that players perform to their mean over the long haul. What you have seen from Jeff Carter in 396 NHL games, is what he will almost certainly produce in the playoffs if you begin expanding the sample size. Jeff Carter has proven he can compete and succeed in the NHL... the playoffs really aren't all that different.

In his last 35 playoff games (so removing his rookie year), Carter has produced on 29 goal pace over an 82 game season. His current career goal scoring pace is 31 goals. So, in the last three years, Carter's goal production rate has dropped by 2 goals come playoff time. That includes one playoff year (6 games) which he played with a busted right shoulder (which is his strong side for shooting...) and then one and two broken feet.

Now, the 29 goal pace IS a notable drop from what he's produced in the regular season, so lets go year by year.

Year 1: 6 goals in 17 games = 28.9 goals (he scored 29 that season)
Year 2: 1 goal in 6 games = 13.6 goals (he scored 46 that season)
Year 3: 5 goals in 12 games = 34 goals (he scored 33 that season)

So, in 2 of his last 3 playoffs Carter's goal production hasn't fallen off at all... and in one of those he was REALLY hurt and then playing out of position. The only playoff run he really dropped off was a 6 game series against the Pens, in which he was playing with a busted shoulder. However, Carter was easily our most dangerous forward for a lot of that series, and MAF just *ing owned him...

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11-11-2010, 01:13 PM
  #347
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Richards got a 12 year contract with 1 assist and a -5 in 6 playoff games.

Moreover, this gets back to the fact that players perform to their mean over the long haul. What you have seen from Jeff Carter in 396 NHL games, is what he will almost certainly produce in the playoffs if you begin expanding the sample size. Jeff Carter has proven he can compete and succeed in the NHL... the playoffs really aren't all that different.

In his last 35 playoff games (so removing his rookie year), Carter has produced on 29 goal pace over an 82 game season. His current career goal scoring pace is 31 goals. So, in the last three years, Carter's goal production rate has dropped by 2 goals come playoff time. That includes one playoff year (6 games) which he played with a busted right shoulder (which is his strong side for shooting...) and then one and two broken feet.

Now, the 29 goal pace IS a notable drop from what he's produced in the regular season, so lets go year by year.

Year 1: 6 goals in 17 games = 28.9 goals (he scored 29 that season)
Year 2: 1 goal in 6 games = 13.6 goals (he scored 46 that season)
Year 3: 5 goals in 12 games = 34 goals (he scored 33 that season)

So, in 2 of his last 3 playoffs Carter's goal production hasn't fallen off at all... and in one of those he was REALLY hurt and then playing out of position. The only playoff run he really dropped off was a 6 game series against the Pens, in which he was playing with a busted shoulder. However, Carter was easily our most dangerous forward for a lot of that series, and MAF just *ing owned him...
Not really sure what you're trying to show. Those aren't the numbers of a $6mil players. 34 goals is not an acceptable number from him if he's going to get paid $6mil. And your illustration of his current projections doesn't help you either. If your claim is that his playoff pace is about the same as his regular season pace, then you're just making my case that he hasn't proven to be a $6mil player because he hasn't shown that level of play except for one year.

As far as Richards goes, he didn't get $6mil. And yes the little bit does make a different. But even so, I think it could be CERTAINLY argued that he hadn't earned that number at the time. Just because they paid him that doesn't mean it was a proper risk.


Last edited by ELab2: 11-11-2010 at 01:18 PM.
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11-11-2010, 01:13 PM
  #348
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Richards got a 12 year contract with 1 assist and a -5 in 6 playoff games.

Moreover, this gets back to the fact that players perform to their mean over the long haul. What you have seen from Jeff Carter in 396 NHL games, is what he will almost certainly produce in the playoffs if you begin expanding the sample size. Jeff Carter has proven he can compete and succeed in the NHL... the playoffs really aren't all that different.

In his last 35 playoff games (so removing his rookie year), Carter has produced on 29 goal pace over an 82 game season. His current career goal scoring pace is 31 goals. So, in the last three years, Carter's goal production rate has dropped by 2 goals come playoff time. That includes one playoff year (6 games) which he played with a busted right shoulder (which is his strong side for shooting...) and then one and two broken feet.

Now, the 29 goal pace IS a notable drop from what he's produced in the regular season, so lets go year by year.

Year 1: 6 goals in 17 games = 28.9 goals (he scored 29 that season)
Year 2: 1 goal in 6 games = 13.6 goals (he scored 46 that season)
Year 3: 5 goals in 12 games = 34 goals (he scored 33 that season)

So, in 2 of his last 3 playoffs Carter's goal production hasn't fallen off at all... and in one of those he was REALLY hurt and then playing out of position. The only playoff run he really dropped off was a 6 game series against the Pens, in which he was playing with a busted shoulder. However, Carter was easily our most dangerous forward for a lot of that series, and MAF just *ing owned him...
Stop with facts and other intruding things like objective reality. Carter isn't a winner, doesn't have heart, is lazy, and likely to kill babies if he ever got the chance. That's why he should be traded.

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11-11-2010, 01:21 PM
  #349
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
There are players who disappear in the NHL playoffs and there are guys who thrive. It is the true nature of the beast when it comes to the NHL and making it the best playoff sport out there. The game is different, the environment is tighter, more teams have the ability ot focus on a players tendencies and negate them all together. Some players dig a little deeper and make it happen. Not talking theories or sampling, we are talking about sports and a players ability to answer when the pressure is on.
No, it's all in your head... it's what you perceive to be true, but the vast body of empirical evidence (i.e. **** that is certifiably true) disproves what you just wrote. Sampling bias is what drives this belief... you watch a handful of games, create a fantastical story about how player X has the ability to step up in the moment and then he gets tagged with that for life (Derek Jeter is the posterboy of this phenomenon). For other players, they get tagged as playoff choke artists.

Joe Thornton doesn't step up in the playoffs. Lets examine that.

As an 18 year old rookie, he got shutout in the playoffs in 6 games. Of course, he also wasn't a particularly good player when he was a rookie.

He also got shutout in the playoffs when he was 24 and playing with cracked ribs... which clearly hindered him.

Outside of those two playoff runs, Thornton has produced 65 pts in 78 games. Now, 0.83 PPG is certainly well below his career 1.02 PPG... however, this is true of a lot of guys that rack up a lot of points off assists during the regular season; they see a drop. Pretty much by rule, a lot of the slam dunk assists you can setup against crappy teams during the regular season go away during the postseason.

Forsberg: 1.25 PPG in the regular season, 1.13 PPG in the playoffs.

Lemieux: 1.88 PPG in the regular season, 1.61 PPG in the playoffs.

Gretzky: 1.92 PPG in the regular season, 1.83 PPG in the playoffs.

Impressive numbers, sure, but you see a small drop off. Forsberg actually upped his GPG in the playoffs (0.35 GPG in the regular season, to 042 GPG).

Guys that have "struggled" come playoff time to this point in their career are likely to produce at a higher clip in some future playoffs (assuming they get to play), and guys that have produced above their norm in the playoffs are likely to produce less in a future playoff run. However, this is horrible language to use, because we cannot make a probability claim that predicts the future like that.

However, we can note that reversion to mean is something to be conscious of... especially when you're making claims about the mystical magic that is "clutch" play.

Quote:
If you have ever played competitive sports you have played with this type of individual, when things get time to convert they want to be the guy with the puck on his stick, the ball at his feet, or the QB of the team. DMac is a perfect example, when it gets tight he vomits on his shoes.
I have... and if you really think professional athletes haven't passed that threshold well before they get to that level, you're deluding yourself. If these guys were really "chokers" or whatever you want to call it, then they would have failed a long time ago.

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11-11-2010, 01:22 PM
  #350
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Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
Not really sure what you're trying to show. Those aren't the numbers of a $6mil players. 34 goals is not an acceptable number from him if he's going to get paid $6mil, so if that's his best playoff pace your just proving my point. And your illustration of his current projections doesn't help you either.

As far as Richards goes, he didn't get $6mil. And yes the little bit does make a different. But even so, I think it could be CERTAINLY argued that he hadn't earned that number at the time. Just because they paid him that doesn't mean it was a proper risk.
The Richards deal was a risky move but it paid off. Management obviously loves their picks and visualized Richards as the future captain of the team. I just think that $6mill is a pipedream for a guy who everyone has professed is one of the best natural scorers in the NHL. Considering what others in his league have made you are looking at a five year deal being @$7mill, but if they signed him to a 10 year deal it could be more like $6mill spread out over the extra five years. That is just way too much IMO.

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