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Carter close to signing 10-year deal (post #441 and #675); Leino update (# 675)

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Old
11-11-2010, 01:26 PM
  #351
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
No, it's all in your head... it's what you perceive to be true, but the vast body of empirical evidence (i.e. **** that is certifiably true) disproves what you just wrote. Sampling bias is what drives this belief... you watch a handful of games, create a fantastical story about how player X has the ability to step up in the moment and then he gets tagged with that for life (Derek Jeter is the posterboy of this phenomenon). For other players, they get tagged as playoff choke artists.

Joe Thornton doesn't step up in the playoffs. Lets examine that.

As an 18 year old rookie, he got shutout in the playoffs in 6 games. Of course, he also wasn't a particularly good player when he was a rookie.

He also got shutout in the playoffs when he was 24 and playing with cracked ribs... which clearly hindered him.

Outside of those two playoff runs, Thornton has produced 65 pts in 78 games. Now, 0.83 PPG is certainly well below his career 1.02 PPG... however, this is true of a lot of guys that rack up a lot of points off assists during the regular season; they see a drop. Pretty much by rule, a lot of the slam dunk assists you can setup against crappy teams during the regular season go away during the postseason.

Forsberg: 1.25 PPG in the regular season, 1.13 PPG in the playoffs.

Lemieux: 1.88 PPG in the regular season, 1.61 PPG in the playoffs.

Gretzky: 1.92 PPG in the regular season, 1.83 PPG in the playoffs.

Impressive numbers, sure, but you see a small drop off. Forsberg actually upped his GPG in the playoffs (0.35 GPG in the regular season, to 042 GPG).

Guys that have "struggled" come playoff time to this point in their career are likely to produce at a higher clip in some future playoffs (assuming they get to play), and guys that have produced above their norm in the playoffs are likely to produce less in a future playoff run. However, this is horrible language to use, because we cannot make a probability claim that predicts the future like that.

However, we can note that reversion to mean is something to be conscious of... especially when you're making claims about the mystical magic that is "clutch" play.



I have... and if you really think professional athletes haven't passed that threshold well before they get to that level, you're deluding yourself. If these guys were really "chokers" or whatever you want to call it, then they would have failed a long time ago.
I disagree with your theory or logic and being a competitive athlete through college have witnessed guys who can perform both during the regular season and also show up in the playoffs. We can talk excuses as to why a player and his team does not win the big games and he does not show up. It will eventually be time for Carter to step up and show he does belong because up to this point injured or not he has not done it. And the injured theory......most players going into a post-season are going to have injuries, nagging ones or more serious ones. Gagne was injured last year and came right in and saved the Flyers from elimination by his clutch goals.

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11-11-2010, 01:26 PM
  #352
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Originally Posted by Rick Blaine View Post
Stop with facts and other intruding things like objective reality. Carter isn't a winner, doesn't have heart, is lazy, and likely to kill babies if he ever got the chance. That's why he should be traded.
Those facts AREN'T supportive of $6mil

A 29 goal pace in the playoffs is NOT a $6mil player if you aren't putting up good assist numbers. A 16 assist pace is not good for a center (removing the first year for both)

A 33 goal pace in the regular season is NOT a $6mil player if you aren't putting up good assist numbers. A 30 assist pace is not good for a center. (removing his first year as Jester did for both)

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11-11-2010, 01:26 PM
  #353
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Originally Posted by Rick Blaine View Post
Stop with facts and other intruding things like objective reality. Carter isn't a winner, doesn't have heart, is lazy, and likely to kill babies if he ever got the chance. That's why he should be traded.
Jester loves using stats to back his arguments or diminish others, at times i honestly wonder if he watches the games or just hits refresh on the NHL.com's Boxscore page. While I won't get into arguing wether or not "clutch" is a viable term worth discussing, and certainly you can beat it to hell with stats over the course of a season/career's. What stat's do not tell are the environment within a moment of these situations that define winners and losers. That's what "clutch" boils down to me, if I was forced to define it.

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11-11-2010, 01:28 PM
  #354
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
The Richards deal was a risky move but it paid off. Management obviously loves their picks and visualized Richards as the future captain of the team. I just think that $6mill is a pipedream for a guy who everyone has professed is one of the best natural scorers in the NHL. Considering what others in his league have made you are looking at a five year deal being @$7mill, but if they signed him to a 10 year deal it could be more like $6mill spread out over the extra five years. That is just way too much IMO.
I agree with you here, but I wouldn't be too happy if they gave him something that high or that long (that's what she said). I like Carter, don't get me wrong, but at this stage of the game, I don't value him that much and that extra cash (and draft picks) sure would be nice.

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11-11-2010, 01:29 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by Chicken Chaser View Post
Jester loves using stats to back his arguments or diminish others, at times i honestly wonder if he watches the games or just hits refresh on the NHL.com's Boxscore page. While I won't get into arguing wether or not "clutch" is a viable term worth discussing, and certainly you can beat it to hell with stats over the course of a season/career's. What stat's do not tell are the environment within a moment of these situations that define winners and losers. That's what "clutch" boils down to me, if I was forced to define it.
Those "moments" happen all the time though. It's not as if they only present themselves at a given point in the playoffs or some other apparently more important part of the year.

Edit: To state it explicitly, I understand what you're saying. I think the fundamental difference of opinion over whether "clutch" exists is largely whether or not a person puts more weight into a given moment of a game than another. I don't. I think the entire game is important, and moments that give birth to "clutch" plays largely stem from them not being executed earlier. To me, every second counts...the same.


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Old
11-11-2010, 01:29 PM
  #356
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Not really sure what you're trying to show. Those aren't the numbers of a $6mil players. 34 goals is not an acceptable number from him if he's going to get paid $6mil. And your illustration of his current projections doesn't help you either. If your claim is that his playoff pace is about the same as his regular season pace, then you're just making my case that he hasn't proven to be a $6mil player because he hasn't shown that level of play except for one year.

As far as Richards goes, he didn't get $6mil. And yes the little bit does make a different. But even so, I think it could be CERTAINLY argued that he hadn't earned that number at the time. Just because they paid him that doesn't mean it was a proper risk.
I am showing that the "he hasn't proven it in the playoffs" mantra is largely a bunch of hooey. Now, you may not feel that Carter is a $6M player independent of that... and, sure, go for it. However, using the "he hasn't proven it in the playoffs" mantra has significant holes in it. A guy that produces at 30 goal pace while being an effective guy on the dot, quality PKer (even if he isn't a primary in the rotation right now... which is due to our embarrassment of riches at forward, not Carter), etc. is worth a good chunk of change... look around the league.

Bobby Ryan just signed a 5.1M AAV contract as his second contract with a 31 and 35 goal campaign on his resume, and isn't quite the all around player that Carter is at the moment.

And, no, the 250K shy of 6M for Richards does not really make a difference in the grand scheme things. Moreover, as noted, Richards is making a F load more than that over the next few years, he's just on a 12 year deal as opposed to a more traditional contract through his prime so the cap hit is lower. So, unless you want to sign Carter to a contract that takes him to his 35th bday, comparing his cap hit to Richards' isn't worth a thing.

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11-11-2010, 01:35 PM
  #357
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I am showing that the "he hasn't proven it in the playoffs" mantra is largely a bunch of hooey. Now, you may not feel that Carter is a $6M player independent of that... and, sure, go for it. However, using the "he hasn't proven it in the playoffs" mantra has significant holes in it. A guy that produces at 30 goal pace while being an effective guy on the dot, quality PKer (even if he isn't a primary in the rotation right now... which is due to our embarrassment of riches at forward, not Carter), etc. is worth a good chunk of change... look around the league.

Bobby Ryan just signed a 5.1M AAV contract as his second contract with a 31 and 35 goal campaign on his resume, and isn't quite the all around player that Carter is at the moment.

And, no, the 250K shy of 6M for Richards does not really make a difference in the grand scheme things. Moreover, as noted, Richards is making a F load more than that over the next few years, he's just on a 12 year deal as opposed to a more traditional contract through his prime so the cap hit is lower. So, unless you want to sign Carter to a contract that takes him to his 35th bday, comparing his cap hit to Richards' isn't worth a thing.
I agree Richards contract is largely irrelevant because as I said I don't think looking at the time, it was worth the risk.

Same goes for Bobby Ryan. And $900k less IS a big difference.

And I just disagree with your main paragraph, which is a matter of opinion. A 30 goal pace with good defense and faceoffs is NOT a $6mil player in my opinion. For $6mil I NEED a near point per game guy. He hasn't proven it in the playoffs to me, is accurate, because he hasn't proven it in the regular season either save for 1 year.

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11-11-2010, 01:35 PM
  #358
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It's way too early to say the Richards move paid off. He was down in points a bunch last year (for reasons not entirely attributable to him) and we don't have a Cup yet. That's a deal that says "Here's a career, go get us a championship." The only fair consideration of that deal being fair to this point is it hasn't blown up in our faces.

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11-11-2010, 01:37 PM
  #359
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Originally Posted by Rick Blaine View Post
Those "moments" happen all the time though. It's not as if they only present themselves at a given point in the playoffs or some other apparently more important part of the year.
I don't agree. Sure you can side with the notion that a win in game 1 of the season is worth the same as a win in game 82 of a season, and you'd be correct. But there's a multiplier in the equation come game 82 with the season on the line and or in the playoffs when you win and you go to a game seven, lose and you go home, and that's pressure. Some players live in the moment of pressure and up their individual games, other's do not.

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11-11-2010, 01:38 PM
  #360
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Originally Posted by Chicken Chaser View Post
Jester loves using stats to back his arguments or diminish others, at times i honestly wonder if he watches the games or just hits refresh on the NHL.com's Boxscore page. While I won't get into arguing wether or not "clutch" is a viable term worth discussing, and certainly you can beat it to hell with stats over the course of a season/career's. What stat's do not tell are the environment within a moment of these situations that define winners and losers. That's what "clutch" boils down to me, if I was forced to define it.
I use stats... because if you just sit there and watch all the games (which I do) your brain is literally incapable of absorbing all the information accurately. For example, and right on with the whole thing with "clutch." Naturally, folks latch on to a player making a big play... lets take Simon Gagne during the Boston series. Do you remember a few years back when Gagne used to get blasted for coming up small in the playoffs? I do, because I used to defend him. Well, now he has some pretty *ing "clutch" goals on his resume, no? Game 6 OT against TB... the Boston series heroics...

I'm slavish in my devotion to statistics because I want to actually understand what is happening. Not create fairy tales about certain players.

So, as noted by Rick Blaine these "moments" are happening all the *ing time. The times a guy converts that chance into a "clutch" goal or whatever, gets celebrated... the time that same guy may have come up small gets overlooked. Then you have other issues, like everyone focusing on Carter's struggles (on two broken feet) and getting stoned by Niemi in Game 6... what about Richards? Dude was missing some golden chances in that series and a complete non-factor offensively after being our best forward in the first 3 rds.

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11-11-2010, 01:38 PM
  #361
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Another thread that turns into Cartsiephan vs HF Flyers
Well, atleast every thread isn't NWO vs. Chris Shafer now.

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11-11-2010, 01:40 PM
  #362
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Well, atleast every thread isn't NWO vs. Chris Shafer now.
I liked it better when it was Wolfy vs. Everyone.

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11-11-2010, 01:42 PM
  #363
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Originally Posted by Chicken Chaser View Post
I don't agree. Sure you can side with the notion that a win in game 1 of the season is worth the same as a win in game 82 of a season, and you'd be correct. But there's a multiplier in the equation come game 82 with the season on the line and or in the playoffs when you win and you go to a game seven, lose and you go home, and that's pressure. Some players live in the moment of pressure and up their individual games, other's do not.
False... and that's the point.

You're placing a narrative on top of it largely because YOU are imbuing greater value in that moment than others... in doing so, you then ignore other failures and other moments.

However, it's really false because it simply isn't true if you look at large enough samples... even for those very moments you are focusing on.

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11-11-2010, 01:43 PM
  #364
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what kind of trade package would Carter and Maroon get you?

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11-11-2010, 01:44 PM
  #365
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Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
I agree Richards contract is largely irrelevant because as I said I don't think looking at the time, it was worth the risk.

Same goes for Bobby Ryan. And $900k less IS a big difference.

And I just disagree with your main paragraph, which is a matter of opinion. A 30 goal pace with good defense and faceoffs is NOT a $6mil player in my opinion. For $6mil I NEED a near point per game guy. He hasn't proven it in the playoffs to me, is accurate, because he hasn't proven it in the regular season either save for 1 year.
Consistent goal scoring is the hardest thing to buy in this league... especially at even strength. Point scoring... meh. Carter isn't going to be a huge point guy because he doesn't pick up a lot of cheap 2nd assists. However, look around... how many guys can you pencil for 35ish goals a year over the next 5 years?

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11-11-2010, 01:50 PM
  #366
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Consistent goal scoring is the hardest thing to buy in this league... especially at even strength. Point scoring... meh. Carter isn't going to be a huge point guy because he doesn't pick up a lot of cheap 2nd assists. However, look around... how many guys can you pencil for 35ish goals a year over the next 5 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
Those facts AREN'T supportive of $6mil

A 29 goal pace in the playoffs is NOT a $6mil player if you aren't putting up good assist numbers. A 16 assist pace is not good for a center (removing the first year for both)

A 33 goal pace in the regular season is NOT a $6mil player if you aren't putting up good assist numbers. A 30 assist pace is not good for a center. (removing his first year as Jester did for both)

Your saying 35-ish as if it's a given. He's done it ONCE. His career average doesn't work out to that pace in the playoffs OR regular season.

Even if it is a given it's not enough, IMO. $6mil is a point per game player in my book, or at least very close to it, flirting with it every year. It's not 65-ish point player.

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11-11-2010, 01:53 PM
  #367
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I use stats... because if you just sit there and watch all the games (which I do) your brain is literally incapable of absorbing all the information accurately. For example, and right on with the whole thing with "clutch." Naturally, folks latch on to a player making a big play... lets take Simon Gagne during the Boston series. Do you remember a few years back when Gagne used to get blasted for coming up small in the playoffs? I do, because I used to defend him. Well, now he has some pretty *ing "clutch" goals on his resume, no? Game 6 OT against TB... the Boston series heroics...

I'm slavish in my devotion to statistics because I want to actually understand what is happening. Not create fairy tales about certain players.

So, as noted by Rick Blaine these "moments" are happening all the *ing time. The times a guy converts that chance into a "clutch" goal or whatever, gets celebrated... the time that same guy may have come up small gets overlooked. Then you have other issues, like everyone focusing on Carter's struggles (on two broken feet) and getting stoned by Niemi in Game 6... what about Richards? Dude was missing some golden chances in that series and a complete non-factor offensively after being our best forward in the first 3 rds.
Fair enough, I simply think that in the world of sport statistical analysis is not the only thing to hang an argument on, and at times over shadows how an event took place. Richard's is not this team's offensive gem nor should he be, and when he tries to be our team's best offensive player he typically hasn't done well. Does that mean he gets a pass for the Chi series? no, but that whole line played like ass Gagne included.

I have to ask, who would you want kicking a field goal late in a game to keep your season alive, Nate Kaeding or Adam Vinatieri?
Who's stick do you want the puck to be on late in a game Carter's or Briere's?

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11-11-2010, 01:55 PM
  #368
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what kind of trade package would Carter and Maroon get you?
the same return as just offering Carter alone

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11-11-2010, 02:05 PM
  #369
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False... and that's the point.

You're placing a narrative on top of it largely because YOU are imbuing greater value in that moment than others... in doing so, you then ignore other failures and other moments.

However, it's really false because it simply isn't true if you look at large enough samples... even for those very moments you are focusing on.
I'm not placing a narrative on anything, nor do I try and look for "heros and goats". Large enough samples of practically anything will muddle out into a mean, sure. But frankly come playoffs I don't care what player A did in game 7 of the regular season. I care what he did in period's one and two of that game, and wether or not he's got the guts to take his game up another notch in period three. Now there is a compounding factor that is called pressure wether you'd like to admit it or not, and some people, believe it or not react better to stressful environments than others. Sports are not played in a vacuum, much unlike viewing certain stats can be made to look.

http://www.mindtools.com/stress/Unde...erformance.htm

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11-11-2010, 02:10 PM
  #370
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the same return as just offering Carter alone
Correction, it would get you less.

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11-11-2010, 02:13 PM
  #371
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Consistent goal scoring is the hardest thing to buy in this league... especially at even strength. Point scoring... meh. Carter isn't going to be a huge point guy because he doesn't pick up a lot of cheap 2nd assists. However, look around... how many guys can you pencil for 35ish goals a year over the next 5 years?
I would love to know how many of carters goals or any player really are significant goals at the time. A goal to tie, take a lead. Guess it depends on how significant is defined. No open net goals, no blowout goals.

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11-11-2010, 02:17 PM
  #372
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Fair enough, I simply think that in the world of sport statistical analysis is not the only thing to hang an argument on, and at times over shadows how an event took place. Richard's is not this team's offensive gem nor should he be, and when he tries to be our team's best offensive player he typically hasn't done well. Does that mean he gets a pass for the Chi series? no, but that whole line played like ass Gagne included.

I have to ask, who would you want kicking a field goal late in a game to keep your season alive, Nate Kaeding or Adam Vinatieri?
Who's stick do you want the puck to be on late in a game Carter's or Briere's?
Vinatieri has made 82.2% of his FG tries in the regular season... and 82.4% of his tries in the playoffs. Clutch?

As to Carter and Briere... depends on the situation. If we're talking the PP, then Briere... if we're talking ES, then Carter.

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11-11-2010, 02:19 PM
  #373
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I would love to know how many of carters goals or any player really are significant goals at the time. A goal to tie, take a lead. Guess it depends on how significant is defined. No open net goals, no blowout goals.
Ah... you can easily find and remove ENG. I'm not sure why you would remove blowout goals necessarily, and/or assume other guys aren't getting blowout goals as well.

Goals, like hits in baseball, happen when they happen and players don't have any control over the game situation in which the goal is taking place. That's why the GWG statistic is completely worthless. I mean, if a guy scores to make a game 4-0 (a blowout) and the team ends up winning 4-3... suddenly a GWG! Of course, you want to discount that goal because it was scored when the game was out of hand.

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11-11-2010, 02:23 PM
  #374
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Originally Posted by Chicken Chaser View Post
I'm not placing a narrative on anything, nor do I try and look for "heros and goats". Large enough samples of practically anything will muddle out into a mean, sure. But frankly come playoffs I don't care what player A did in game 7 of the regular season. I care what he did in period's one and two of that game, and wether or not he's got the guts to take his game up another notch in period three. Now there is a compounding factor that is called pressure wether you'd like to admit it or not, and some people, believe it or not react better to stressful environments than others. Sports are not played in a vacuum, much unlike viewing certain stats can be made to look.

http://www.mindtools.com/stress/Unde...erformance.htm
So, you think a professional athlete... that has been playing in stressful environments at various levels (where he presumably would have cracked if he adversely responded to pressure) is suddenly cracking at this stage?

And notice how you say you're not placing a "narrative" on anything, but you then immediately start talking about whether a player "has the guts to take his game up another notch in period three." That's constructing a narrative... It's also constructing heroes and goats (some guys do have "the guts" and some guys "don't").

And it's unclear to me how you can acknowledge that large samples -- thus giving players more opportunity to succeed and fail in those moments -- will muddle out to mean performance and not see the disconnect between that and a player actually being "clutch." If a player is clutch he WON'T fall to the mean, because he's clutch.

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11-11-2010, 02:36 PM
  #375
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Fair enough, I simply think that in the world of sport statistical analysis is not the only thing to hang an argument on, and at times over shadows how an event took place. Richard's is not this team's offensive gem nor should he be, and when he tries to be our team's best offensive player he typically hasn't done well. Does that mean he gets a pass for the Chi series? no, but that whole line played like ass Gagne included.

I have to ask, who would you want kicking a field goal late in a game to keep your season alive, Nate Kaeding or Adam Vinatieri?
Who's stick do you want the puck to be on late in a game Carter's or Briere's?
In just about every game Vinatieri hit a clutch FG he missed one or two earlier in that game.
It's the same as someone scoring a goal in the 1st period of a game then someone scores a goal in OT to win it. The guy that scored the OT goal is a hero but without the 1st period goal his team probably doesn't make OT.

Everyone heaps praise on Giroux and Briere for their shootout goals abgainst the Rags but without Carle's goal they don't get that opportunity.

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