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Jeff Carter: 11-year Contract Extension, $58M $5.27+ AAV

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:11 PM
  #76
Garbage Goal
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Not a fan of that extra year, but that cap hit is amazing.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:11 PM
  #77
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I.....like Homer??

Love it!!!!!

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:11 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
The style of game Lindros played would make me scared to sign him to a long term deal. Carter doesn't play with the same physical element. I'm more scared of Richard's not maintaining his play then I am Carter.
It wasn't really Lindros' physical play that truly did him in... it was Kasparitis knocking his head off (which can certainly happen to Carter). Then there's the potential issue of stuff like a knee injury (look what happened to Peca).

Richards' deal is a concern on similar lines, but at the same time it's understandable in his case because they literally chose to build the team around him. Additionally, even if he loses a bit going up ice, he's such a heady player (isn't like raw athleticism carries him as is) that I think he'd be OK. Carter lives off his athletic ability, he loses that and his effectiveness will disappear with a quickness.

Now, the cap hit is quite nice, and he should outperform it over the next 5 years or so... but "scorers" also tend to peak in their 20s and be a bit more hit and miss after that.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:12 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
It's similar to the Pronger deal.

I think for the first 7 years, this is going to be an absolute steal.

26/27
27/28
28/29
29/30
30/31
31/32
32/33

You're essentially getting a guy who could be a 7 mill player in his prime for 2 mill less per year.

But then, you have the..

33/34
34/35
35/36
36/37

Also keep in mind that of the NHL's top-20 scorers last year, 2 (Marleau and Iginla) were over 30 and the oldest was 32.

I mean, the new NHL is a young man's game and most of Carter's game revolves around skating and shooting. We especially saw in the POs that a slow Carter isn't very useful, so we really have to bank that he keeps his speed into his 30s are this contract is going to be an albatross.

I think it's a decent deal, but the rush to annoint Homer for it is a bit much, it's a deal with a ton of risk.
Great players reinvent themselves when they have to.

The risk of the last 4 years should worth the gains of the first 7.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:13 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by SolidSnakeUS View Post
The question is, will it also cover Leino's? That's what I'm saying though as well, even though I didn't mention it earlier. His pay might be about 2.5M to 3M and in that case, we might be in a bit of cap woes for the next season unless someone goes.

Ok I don't want to sound like an idiot, but the bonuses for both Bob and JVR DO count against the cap right?
Losing Zherdev should be enough to cover Leino.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:14 PM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
I think it's a decent deal, but the rush to annoint Homer for it is a bit much, it's a deal with a ton of risk, I'd say Carter and his agent got exactly what they wanted.

EDIT: I'll also be interested to hear about potential NMC/NTC clauses.
Yeah... it's $58M guaranteed to Carter no matter what. By the age of 37, he will have collected roughly $76M from playing hockey.

It's a no brainer to take that guaranteed coin. All the potential problems with this deal are from the Flyers side.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:18 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
Great players reinvent themselves when they have to.

The risk of the last 4 years should worth the gains of the first 7.
Yeah, but how the heck is Carter going to "reinvent himself."

I mean, Richards is a smart enough player that he will be effective well into his 30s barring major injury.

Not to trash Carter, but he simply doesn't have the smarts, he goes as his skating and shot goes. So he can't reinvent himself, once his skating legs are gone, he's gone.

Now there are a couple fortunate factors for us.

1) He won't really lose the wrister.
2) His skating style is very fluid, not a ton of wear and tear there.
3) He's durable.
4) Don't forget that he got a big raise after 07-08 and promptly went, worked out, and got into phenomenal shape after he got paid, so I think the work ethic is there.

But the deal comes with risk.

What scares me just a bit is that we're likely to have a declining Briere making much more than he's worth, a declining Pronger who's making more than he's worth, and potentially a declining Carter who makes more than he's worth all in succession.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:20 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Losing Zherdev should be enough to cover Leino.
Well I tried to do the math but I know I probably either missed something, put something in I shouldn't have, or I'm just confused about bonuses.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:21 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Yeah... it's $58M guaranteed to Carter no matter what. By the age of 37, he will have collected roughly $76M from playing hockey.

It's a no brainer to take that guaranteed coin. All the potential problems with this deal are from the Flyers side.
Yeah that's a good point, these much longer deals with the low hits always seem like a win for the team, but the new CBA hasn't been around long enough for us to see teams saddled with declining players making much more than their worth, I'm also betting pretty strongly that after what happened with Redden, Carter made sure to get an NMC.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:23 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
Yeah, but how the heck is Carter going to "reinvent himself."

I mean, Richards is a smart enough player that he will be effective well into his 30s barring major injury.

Not to trash Carter, but he simply doesn't have the smarts, he goes as his skating and shot goes. So he can't reinvent himself, once his skating legs are gone, he's gone.

Now there are a couple fortunate factors for us.

1) He won't really lose the wrister.
2) His skating style is very fluid, not a ton of wear and tear there.
3) He's durable.
4) Don't forget that he got a big raise after 07-08 and promptly went, worked out, and got into phenomenal shape after he got paid, so I think the work ethic is there.

But the deal comes with risk.

What scares me just a bit is that we're likely to have a declining Briere making much more than he's worth, a declining Pronger who's making more than he's worth, and potentially a declining Carter who makes more than he's worth all in succession.
Declining players - who are truly great players - find the others ways to contribute positively. Trade offense for defensive positioning. Learn how to play wing and allow yourself to become more versatile. Emphasis on more little things.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:24 PM
  #86
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Long deals have risk, of course, but for the first half of this deal I think this is going to be a steal, and hopefully the cap will rise enough to make 5.27 chump change near the end (but who knows).

Glad that Carter will be around for a while. Did not think it was possible to fit all these pieces in, and Homer seems to be finding a way right now. That's $1M per less than what I thought he'd give to Jeff.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:24 PM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Yeah... it's $58M guaranteed to Carter no matter what. By the age of 37, he will have collected roughly $76M from playing hockey.

It's a no brainer to take that guaranteed coin. All the potential problems with this deal are from the Flyers side.
Call me crazy but I don't see any negative on this contract for both sides.

Carter is sacrificing alot of money on this deal to stay in Philly, at least 10-12millions $ over his prime years. Philly gets the low caphit.

I'm really liking the salary structure Holmgren has implemented over the years on this team, its very Detroit like. (no one makes more than X, unless its a free agent.)

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:27 PM
  #88
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Is it really fair to say he won't lose his wrist shot?

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:27 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SolidSnakeUS View Post
Well I tried to do the math but I know I probably either missed something, put something in I shouldn't have, or I'm just confused about bonuses.
Here's a team I threw together using no increase in the salary cap (and this team still fits under):

Sign Leino 3.0M per
Sign Powe 900k
Sign Nodl 950k
Laperierre LTIR
Walker waived

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Darroll Powe ($0.900m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
Ville Leino ($3.000m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Scott Hartnell ($4.200m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Jeff Carter ($5.270m) / Andreas Nodl ($0.950m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)

DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Matt Carle ($3.437m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) /Michael Leighton ($1.550m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,046,429; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $53,571

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:27 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson 514 View Post
Declining players - who are truly great players - find the others ways to contribute positively. Trade offense for defensive positioning. Learn how to play wing and allow yourself to become more versatile. Emphasis on more little things.
Well, how do you define a "truly great player"?

For instance, Crosby, Lidstrom, hopefully Pronger will all remain very effective, hell, Lidstrom is 40 or so and has been the NHL's best d-man this year, but I would not describe Carter as a "truly great" player.

I think he tops out as maybe a top-20 player and even that might be optimistic.

And again, I can virtually guarantee you Carts has played the same way since he was 12, it's a lot to ask for a guy to change his style completely after 20 years and to remain effective.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:29 PM
  #91
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Carter will score more goals than Kovalchuk when comparing just the years inside these longterm deals.

I'm calling it.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:30 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Blaine View Post
Is it really fair to say he won't lose his wrist shot?
I think so, Sakic certainly never really lost his.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:31 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
I think so, Sakic certainly never really lost his.
Even Kovalev still has his.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:32 PM
  #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Here's a team I threw together using no increase in the salary cap (and this team still fits under):

Sign Leino 3.0M per
Sign Powe 900k
Sign Nodl 950k
Laperierre LTIR
Walker waived

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Darroll Powe ($0.900m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
Ville Leino ($3.000m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Scott Hartnell ($4.200m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Jeff Carter ($5.270m) / Andreas Nodl ($0.950m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)

DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Matt Carle ($3.437m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) /Michael Leighton ($1.550m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,046,429; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $53,571
So I was a tad off, but a bit right when it comes to the Lappy hit. When I did math, it was just over 60M and Lappy's LTIR would help. I'm sure if Lappy does come back next season or sometime this season, I could probably see Shelley be gone. We may not have a heavy weight with Shelley, but we have people who will stand up and fight.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:32 PM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Here's a team I threw together using no increase in the salary cap (and this team still fits under):

Sign Leino 3.0M per
Sign Powe 900k
Sign Nodl 950k
Laperierre LTIR
Walker waived

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Darroll Powe ($0.900m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m)
Ville Leino ($3.000m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Scott Hartnell ($4.200m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Jeff Carter ($5.270m) / Andreas Nodl ($0.950m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)

DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Matt Carle ($3.437m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)

GOALTENDERS
Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.750m) /Michael Leighton ($1.550m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,046,429; BONUSES: $1,700,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $53,571
Nodl isnt going to get 950k...his cap hit may be 850k, but thats because there's a signing bonus added onto it

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:32 PM
  #96
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I just woke up from a nap (Love the weekends). And this was the way to wake up. I checked my iphone to see if anything happened on the message board, and there it was in a sticky thread. Carter cap hit 5.2..... and I was so pumped. The reason why i was so pumped is because now we can get LEINO signed. sad.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:32 PM
  #97
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I like this a lot.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:32 PM
  #98
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HELL YES. ****ing love it.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:33 PM
  #99
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Wow, I couldn't be happier about this. I think his cap hit directly reflects his value.

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Old
11-13-2010, 03:33 PM
  #100
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The one thing I'll say for this is that I think it's very good to have a set, established core.

For instance, Detroit has basically operated with the Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Lidstrom trio for a number of years and just filled in other players.

Now we seem to be setting up a potential Carter/Richards/Pronger/Giroux core for the next 5 years. Having a consistent core of proven winners and guys who make a habit out of winning is a big positive.

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