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Eklund: Setoguchi for Beauchemin

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Old
11-17-2010, 02:48 PM
  #26
Le Rosbeef
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Pass.

Rule no.1, you don't trade your young players who have potential when their value is at such a low ebb. Good way to lose your job, IMO.

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11-17-2010, 02:48 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Vaasa View Post
He's 23, in his 3rd season, played a good chunk of last season injured or recovering from injury, and has obviously been working on other aspects of his game to be a more all-around player. Just as Patty struggled for years for any sort of consistency, and Clowe had his issues, as did JT, Seto will have his slumps and his down times. And even if he's not scoring right now, he is doing everything else a 3rd-liner is expected to do. And he's being paid like a 3rd-liner.
I agree generally with this sentiment, but I just can't agree with the bolded section.

Marleau came into the league as a 17 year old in 97-98, and at 22/23 (end of 01-02) he had seasons of 32, 45, 40, 52, and 44 points, with goal totals being 13, 21, 17, 25, and 21. At 23/24 and 24/25, he put up back-to-back 28 goal, 29 assist campaigns. Then, after the lockout: 86, 78, 48, 71, 83, and this year's 17 so far. Marleau had ONE YEAR where he significantly underperformed his expectations, and pretty much every other year turned out to be about right. Streakiness is one thing, and yes Marleau did have bouts of that, but Seto's struggles go past streakiness.

Thornton is similar. He had 7 points in his first year in the league, then 60, 71, 68, 101, 73, then after the lockout with the Sharks we all know. He had one blowup year but otherwise was pretty consistent through his learning curve.

You can't even say that about Clowe. It took until game 20 for Clowe to score his second goal last year, but he had 8 assists in that time - and that was still considered awful. He looked really bad on the ice too, granted, which Setoguchi does not, but from a production standpoint his slump wasn't nearly as bad.

No, Setoguchi's current struggles go far beyond what any of Marleau, Thornton, or Clowe went through to get to where they are.

Quote:
So adjust your expectations one an all. If his consistency improves, he'll be back to being a 2nd-liner. If it doesn't he'll get paid like a 3rd-liner again next year and he'll stay on the 3rd line until he develops more. Having Seto as a 3rd-liner is hardly a terrible proposition.
Unfortunately, this is already a large drop from his being a fixture on the first line's right wing, which everyone thought he would be after his 31-goal year.

I wouldn't do the deal because I think Setoguchi's long-term 'resting point' (so to speak) is much closer to 30-goal Seto than he is to the current iteration, but Seto's production is starting to remind me of Bernier's - meteoric, and then fading fast. His stock is lower than ever right now. And if this goes on for long enough such that people actually have to start re-evaluating his talent as more of a career third-line winger, then not trading him while everyone else thinks he has 1st line potential is asset mismanagement. (That being said, Setoguchi not earning a huge payday this year and then signing on for a few more years at a 1.8-ish cap figure would be a-ok by me)

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Old
11-17-2010, 03:14 PM
  #28
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great job. buy high, sell low.

and WE add the 3rd??

he must have gotten distracted by another shiny stanley cup ring...

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Old
11-17-2010, 03:18 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wraith985 View Post
I agree generally with this sentiment, but I just can't agree with the bolded section.

Marleau came into the league as a 17 year old in 97-98, and at 22/23 (end of 01-02) he had seasons of 32, 45, 40, 52, and 44 points, with goal totals being 13, 21, 17, 25, and 21. At 23/24 and 24/25, he put up back-to-back 28 goal, 29 assist campaigns. Then, after the lockout: 86, 78, 48, 71, 83, and this year's 17 so far. Marleau had ONE YEAR where he significantly underperformed his expectations, and pretty much every other year turned out to be about right. Streakiness is one thing, and yes Marleau did have bouts of that, but Seto's struggles go past streakiness.

Thornton is similar. He had 7 points in his first year in the league, then 60, 71, 68, 101, 73, then after the lockout with the Sharks we all know. He had one blowup year but otherwise was pretty consistent through his learning curve.

You can't even say that about Clowe. It took until game 20 for Clowe to score his second goal last year, but he had 8 assists in that time - and that was still considered awful. He looked really bad on the ice too, granted, which Setoguchi does not, but from a production standpoint his slump wasn't nearly as bad.

No, Setoguchi's current struggles go far beyond what any of Marleau, Thornton, or Clowe went through to get to where they are.


Unfortunately, this is already a large drop from his being a fixture on the first line's right wing, which everyone thought he would be after his 31-goal year.

I wouldn't do the deal because I think Setoguchi's long-term 'resting point' (so to speak) is much closer to 30-goal Seto than he is to the current iteration, but Seto's production is starting to remind me of Bernier's - meteoric, and then fading fast. His stock is lower than ever right now. And if this goes on for long enough such that people actually have to start re-evaluating his talent as more of a career third-line winger, then not trading him while everyone else thinks he has 1st line potential is asset mismanagement. (That being said, Setoguchi not earning a huge payday this year and then signing on for a few more years at a 1.8-ish cap figure would be a-ok by me)
I'd prefer to compare rookie season to rookie season and so on. If you look at each player's third season, you'd see the struggle. The age, I don't think is a factor. Mostly because when Marleau came in, the Sharks had nothing. When Seto was drafted, it was the lockout draft. The Sharks were pretty much set to go in with what they had due to the very low cap and see what happens. Setoguchi's struggles are very much on par to what Marleau's struggles were. The biggest difference is that I don't expect Setoguchi to have that consistency be in question as long as Marleau did and that's mostly due to coaching. Sutter was terrible at developing offensive talent. The environment in San Jose now is much better for bringing along a talent like Setoguchi. It just takes time.

It's his third season, he's only getting paid 1.8 mil. He's not going to get a big contract until he breaks out. And if he doesn't, he doesn't but the risk-reward ratio for keeping him is in the team's favor and shouldn't be traded for a quick fix that won't really turn the team's problem into what it needs to be to contend.

As for the Bernier comparisons, I actually don't think it's valid. You never got the impression from Bernier that he was doing everything he could on and off the ice to be a better player. Setoguchi gives that impression to me and he does give a solid effort for a talented young player. A lot of his problems right now is seasoning. He's not a very smart player out there right now. That will change in time. But his effort is there a lot more often than not. I wouldn't say it's 100% like Scotty Nichol but I've seen a lot more effort and drive out of Setoguchi than I ever saw in Bernier.

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11-17-2010, 04:18 PM
  #30
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living in T.O and being a sharks/leafs fan, I do not want to see Beauchemin in the teal.


I want that guy gone forever...... Beauchemin SUCKS

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Old
11-17-2010, 04:21 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raym11 View Post
living in T.O and being a sharks/leafs fan, I do not want to see Beauchemin in the teal.


I want that guy gone forever...... Beauchemin SUCKS
When I was living in Toronto last year and had to watch Beauchemin it would make me sick. The guy just isn't very good.

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Old
11-17-2010, 04:23 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raym11 View Post
living in T.O and being a sharks/leafs fan, I do not want to see Beauchemin in the teal.


I want that guy gone forever...... Beauchemin SUCKS
If we had Pronger or Niedermayer to pair him with... But yeah, the dude is a turn over machine.

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Old
11-17-2010, 04:44 PM
  #33
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I have a feeling promises were made to Setoguchi in regards to his relatively cheap 1-year extension so I doubt we'll see him move but anything can happen.

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Old
11-17-2010, 04:52 PM
  #34
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Noooooo!

If Seto's moved, it better be for a youngish top 2 d-man. Not Beauchemin!

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Old
11-17-2010, 07:28 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
I'd prefer to compare rookie season to rookie season and so on. If you look at each player's third season, you'd see the struggle. The age, I don't think is a factor. Mostly because when Marleau came in, the Sharks had nothing. When Seto was drafted, it was the lockout draft. The Sharks were pretty much set to go in with what they had due to the very low cap and see what happens. Setoguchi's struggles are very much on par to what Marleau's struggles were. The biggest difference is that I don't expect Setoguchi to have that consistency be in question as long as Marleau did and that's mostly due to coaching. Sutter was terrible at developing offensive talent. The environment in San Jose now is much better for bringing along a talent like Setoguchi. It just takes time.

It's his third season, he's only getting paid 1.8 mil. He's not going to get a big contract until he breaks out. And if he doesn't, he doesn't but the risk-reward ratio for keeping him is in the team's favor and shouldn't be traded for a quick fix that won't really turn the team's problem into what it needs to be to contend.

As for the Bernier comparisons, I actually don't think it's valid. You never got the impression from Bernier that he was doing everything he could on and off the ice to be a better player. Setoguchi gives that impression to me and he does give a solid effort for a talented young player. A lot of his problems right now is seasoning. He's not a very smart player out there right now. That will change in time. But his effort is there a lot more often than not. I wouldn't say it's 100% like Scotty Nichol but I've seen a lot more effort and drive out of Setoguchi than I ever saw in Bernier.
His point about Bernier isn't valid, but your "impression" of Setoguchi is? Why? Do you have some inside source? I don't find that to be 'valid' either.

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Old
11-17-2010, 07:48 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by sharkohol View Post
His point about Bernier isn't valid, but your "impression" of Setoguchi is? Why? Do you have some inside source? I don't find that to be 'valid' either.
Bernier was much more of a party boy that had consistent issues with his off-season workout regiment. Setoguchi hasn't had those issues and if he has, it's a lot less public.

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Old
11-17-2010, 07:49 PM
  #37
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beau was just an overpayment on burke's part to make anaheim lite in toronto. plus it's eklund, eklund!

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Old
11-17-2010, 07:55 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Bernier was much more of a party boy that had consistent issues with his off-season workout regiment. Setoguchi hasn't had those issues and if he has, it's a lot less public.
I've seen Seto multiple times in downtown Los Gatos getting hammered. So I can criticize him, yes?

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11-17-2010, 07:57 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by sharkohol View Post
I've seen Seto multiple times in downtown Los Gatos getting hammered. So I can criticize him, yes?
That counters one point but ignores the other. It was a consistent issue with Bernier where the team would ask him to drop some weight and put on some muscle and he failed to do so. And part of the reason why Bernier had those problems was his affinity to party.

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11-17-2010, 10:38 PM
  #40
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Why is this even posted?

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11-17-2010, 11:02 PM
  #41
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If white was available for what was given, then im sure we're not adding a 3rd for beauch.

I could see Wisniewski at the deadline for seto, or picks/prospects.

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11-17-2010, 11:33 PM
  #42
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No way this happens.

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11-17-2010, 11:52 PM
  #43
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At 1.8 million I have absolutely no issues with seto as a 3rd liner who is a physical scoring threat.

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11-18-2010, 03:52 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Vaasa View Post
Then the key point here is that your expectations are unrealistically high. And anyone else's expectations who expect Seto to be a consistent and significant scoring threat.

He's 23, in his 3rd season, played a good chunk of last season injured or recovering from injury, and has obviously been working on other aspects of his game to be a more all-around player. Just as Patty struggled for years for any sort of consistency, and Clowe had his issues, as did JT, Seto will have his slumps and his down times. And even if he's not scoring right now, he is doing everything else a 3rd-liner is expected to do. And he's being paid like a 3rd-liner.

So adjust your expectations one an all. If his consistency improves, he'll be back to being a 2nd-liner. If it doesn't he'll get paid like a 3rd-liner again next year and he'll stay on the 3rd line until he develops more. Having Seto as a 3rd-liner is hardly a terrible proposition.
Well put sir.

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11-18-2010, 07:31 AM
  #45
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The Sharks should be aiming higher than Beauchemin. We need a top pairing two-way defenseman. Beauchemin's offensive upside is almost nonexistent.

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11-18-2010, 09:07 AM
  #46
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Just out of curiousity from a Montreal Canadiens point of view, what would you guys want for Setoguchi considering his current value. If Seto and a 3rd for Beauchemin is even be contemplated I'm positive MTL can match or raise.


So what would the price be roughly?

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11-18-2010, 10:40 AM
  #47
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Just out of curiousity from a Montreal Canadiens point of view, what would you guys want for Setoguchi considering his current value. If Seto and a 3rd for Beauchemin is even be contemplated I'm positive MTL can match or raise.

So what would the price be roughly?
Seto and a 5th for Gorges and a 1st.

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11-18-2010, 11:18 AM
  #48
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Originally Posted by RammsteinGT View Post
Seto and a 5th for Gorges and a 1st.
Really??

The answer is: The only people contemplating Seto and a 3rd for Beauchemin are Eklund and Leafs fans.

DW is waiting for a top pairing impact D man to be available, then everyone who wasn't on the Canadian olympic team is part of the discussion and he WILL put together the best package to get his man. If the right guy isn't available, we will get someone for picks and prospects at the deadline.

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11-18-2010, 11:53 AM
  #49
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Really??
I was evoking memories of the Rivet trade.

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Old
11-18-2010, 12:54 PM
  #50
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I don't understand what you mean by this......Marleau, Thornton, Heatley, Pavelski, and Boyle are all under long-term deals. Even the older ones in that crop still have a few years of their prime left.

I am all for trading Seto, and I do like Beachemin.....but I'd rather see Seto moved as part of a package for a a higher caliber defenseman, and maybe a younger one.
I meant what I meant. The players we have in the core and under long term and NTC contracts are at their peak and what you see is what you get. That might not be enough to win it all. We are still capable of winning, but the window is closing with this group when you compare this team to LA for instance.

Don't misunderstand the point. I am talking about skill sets and development. Can we win it all this year? Sure ... if we fix the obvious defensive weakness and the team re-discovers how to play with a purpose, we can win this year.

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