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Which is more valuable to Poile? 4 first round picks or Shea Weber???

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Old
11-18-2010, 01:14 PM
  #26
BigFatCat999
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I used to say, Sullivan's money pays for Weber and Dumont's money pays for Suter.

Problem is the Radulov complication. That kid is always ****ing **** up.

We all assumed that Radulov comes back, takes Sully's spot and then Weber get's paid. Well, Radulov is not coming back. Would Klasen take Sullivan's spot? If anything, does this team re-sign Sullivan and would it be with a pay cut?

And who is in the system. R. Ellis looks NHL capable. Blum is NHL capable. OBrien, Sulzer, and Laakso are UFAs.

Now the question is, how much are you willing to pay

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11-18-2010, 01:36 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lightning_legwand View Post
I was watching the leafs/preds game last night and before they game they talked a bit about the predators. They had most of the focus on our superstar defenseman Shea Weber.

There was 4 analysts and not a single one of them said they thought Weber would re-sign in Nashville, due to our self employed cap and it would be a huge nuissance to the payroll and cripple things even more.

They all said that Poile's best bet would be to trade him for something just astronomically phenomenal or just wait until he hits RFA and other teams will without a doubt treat Weber like a UFA and will not mind paying out the 5 first round picks it would take to sign him away from us.

All of the analysts said they figure we go into the future after this season with Suter as the main guy and a crap load of first round draft picks most likely.





Tell me that this is BS?? I am very much to hoping that Weber signs long-term here and we can afford him! He is the face of this franchise and especially when we just named him captain!

I remember Poile saying in the Tennessean that when the Preds played the leafs it woudl be a good opportunity to speak with Shea's agent who lives in Toronto about a deal. Any word?? on Anything??
FYI, the max compensation is only 4 first round picks, not 5. This year, the cut-off was $7.7M and it usually goes up every year. So he'd likely have to get offered over $8M to get the max compensation. If it's under that then the compensation is only 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

Did you actually do the math regarding keeping both Weber and Suter? It's easily possible for us to keep both while maintaining a decent squad.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toblerone View Post
I always hear Pred fans bring this point up in regards to Weber. He only signed 3 years knowing full well that he would be restricted at the end of the contract, thus meaning he wants to stay and re-sign. That could definitely be true, but if that scenario is true for Weber, are any Pred fans worried the opposite could be true for Suter? I'm sure Suter knew exactly what he was doing with signing a 4 year contract...I'm not saying he will be difficult to re-sign (as I really have no idea), but if one scenario is true for Weber, why not the other for Suter?
This is true and no one is denying it. Of the two, Suter's situation is more worrisome. I think it means we are even more likely to sign Weber. Imagine if we decide to let Weber go, but then Suter decides he wants to test free agency? There is no way we let Weber walk unless Suter is re-upped. Suter seems very likely to sign here though. His whole personality just fits Nashville.

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11-18-2010, 02:00 PM
  #28
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Thread title changed to match max compensation.

And this would be 4 1sts spread out over 4 years so it's really the right to have 2 1sts for the next 4 years and one of those years sucks draft wise.

Also we have to consider the team offering the picks. If it's a central team or a team with a GM who knows what he's doing match it.

With Weber's current salary and Sullivan's expiring deal the cap hit would have to be greater than 8.25 million for Nashville not to have the cash to match. Even then Nashville might have some change left over.

But let's say the nightmare were to happen. There is a Montreal thread and I asked: Let's say Montreal signs Weber for 8.5 million and Nashville get the firsts. And then Nashville signs Markov and then Suter to deals which would be cheaper than signing Weber and Suter? Call up Ellis and Blum.....

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11-18-2010, 02:23 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toblerone View Post
I always hear Pred fans bring this point up in regards to Weber. He only signed 3 years knowing full well that he would be restricted at the end of the contract, thus meaning he wants to stay and re-sign. That could definitely be true, but if that scenario is true for Weber, are any Pred fans worried the opposite could be true for Suter? I'm sure Suter knew exactly what he was doing with signing a 4 year contract...I'm not saying he will be difficult to re-sign (as I really have no idea), but if one scenario is true for Weber, why not the other for Suter?
So I think Suter would fetch a ton in a deal as well.

Is he worth 4 first rounders?

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11-18-2010, 02:36 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paranoid Android View Post
FYI, the max compensation is only 4 first round picks, not 5.
Could have sworn it was 5.

Yes, it is:

http://www.nhlfa.com/CBA/cba_agreement10.asp

$667,433 - $917,720 = 3rd round pick
$917,720 - $1,084,579 = 2nd round pick
$1,084,579 - $1,334,867 = 1st round pick
$1,334,867 - $1,668,582 = 1st & 3rd round picks
$1,668,582 - $2,002,298 = 1st and & 2nd round picks
$2,002,298 - $2,336,015 = two 1st round picks
$2,336,015 - $2,836,589 = two 1st round & one 2nd round picks
$2,836,589 - $4,505,171 = three 1st round picks
$4,505,171 - $6,173,753 = four 1st round picks
$6,173,753 and up = five 1st round picks

Weber makes 4.5M right now… So he would get a 6.2M offer sheet if it were to happen.

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11-18-2010, 03:15 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by utmfisher19 View Post
Could have sworn it was 5.

Yes, it is:

http://www.nhlfa.com/CBA/cba_agreement10.asp

$667,433 - $917,720 = 3rd round pick
$917,720 - $1,084,579 = 2nd round pick
$1,084,579 - $1,334,867 = 1st round pick
$1,334,867 - $1,668,582 = 1st & 3rd round picks
$1,668,582 - $2,002,298 = 1st and & 2nd round picks
$2,002,298 - $2,336,015 = two 1st round picks
$2,336,015 - $2,836,589 = two 1st round & one 2nd round picks
$2,836,589 - $4,505,171 = three 1st round picks
$4,505,171 - $6,173,753 = four 1st round picks
$6,173,753 and up = five 1st round picks

Weber makes 4.5M right now… So he would get a 6.2M offer sheet if it were to happen.
Those dollar amounts are being listed as "Updated for 2002-03 Season", so they're of questionable current value.

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Old
11-18-2010, 03:17 PM
  #32
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Per CBA in NHLPA.com, max is 4 1st

http://www.nhlpa.com/About-Us/CBA/

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11-18-2010, 04:39 PM
  #33
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If they did have to trade him for some weird reason or they could take the 4 1st rounders, which would you rather have??


Say a package of like Getzlaf and a first

-OR-

4 1st round picks





Please re-sign Shea!!!

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11-18-2010, 05:09 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lightning_legwand View Post
If they did have to trade him for some weird reason or they could take the 4 1st rounders, which would you rather have??


Say a package of like Getzlaf and a first

-OR-

4 1st round picks





Please re-sign Shea!!!
Definitely current talent > future talent. We have the best prospect pool in the league, we don't need any more draft picks. If it looks like a deal can't get done with Weber then I think he'll be traded in a package that includes a roster player. Getzlaf is reaching though.

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11-18-2010, 05:19 PM
  #35
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Let me run something by all of you. Let's say Weber says he's done with Nashville and Edmonton makes a move, that's right, the #1 overall pick. Would you jump at a 2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd if that was the situation?

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11-18-2010, 05:33 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
Let me run something by all of you. Let's say Weber says he's done with Nashville and Edmonton makes a move, that's right, the #1 overall pick. Would you jump at a 2 1st, 1 2nd, 1 3rd if that was the situation?
Do we pick a defender with the No. 1 pick?

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11-18-2010, 05:40 PM
  #37
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Do we pick a defender with the No. 1 pick?
Well, it IS a defense year and there IS this Laarson kid......

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11-18-2010, 05:40 PM
  #38
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Do we pick a defender with the No. 1 pick?
Sadly, Ryan Murphy is the No. 1 right now...

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11-18-2010, 06:07 PM
  #39
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I'll make one comment. Anaheim had Pronger and Niedermayer on the blue line two years ago. Pronger was traded, Niedermayer retired. Let's say we trade Weber and lose Suter to free agency, basically the same thing, where are we? We're like Anaheim except we still don't have a number 1 line and our d-corp is either young and inexperienced or young, inexperienced and not ready to handle the rigors of the NHL. While getting a nice package back for both of those guys would be nice, we'll never get the value that are Weber and Suter in any trade package or compensatory draft picks.

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11-19-2010, 12:01 AM
  #40
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Wasn't Cigarran on the radio earlier this season saying that he knew what Weber wanted and was prepared to pay it? Same interview, he also said that they would re-sign Suter. Maybe things have changed since then, and maybe he was must being over-confident, but keep that in mind.

Can you afford to keep him? Yes, the question is whether the imbalance in spending makes you weaker in the long-term. If you do decide to move him and re-balance with stronger forwards, I'll offer this:

To Vancouver:
Shea Weber

To Nashville:
Mason Raymond
Keith Ballard
And conditional if we re-sign Weber:
Cody Hodgson OR Jordan Schroeder
1st round pick

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11-19-2010, 12:58 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by lightning_legwand View Post

Is Shea goes, I think a ton of Predator fans stop buying season tickets or just single game tickets in general. It would be a HUGE letdown/disapointment. Weber is the face of this franchise and if he goes and we miss playoffs or get beat out second round again. Things are not looking anywhere but down for the Preds.

false.

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11-19-2010, 04:54 AM
  #42
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Hey there, Preds fans. Leaf fan here coming in peace searching for answers to a few questions.

But first, two points:

1. There are many Leaf fans who share your opinion regarding the 'analysts' on Sportsnet, so you're not alone on that one. Nick Kypreos is an idiot and Bill Watters should just retire and stay away from TV cameras, microphones, and radio stations.

2. I watched the Leafs/Preds game on the 16th and I honestly don't know why the Preds didn't win. The Preds had the Leafs by the short-hairs. What happened to flip the script?

Now, on to the main reason for this visitation.

I know that Shea Weber is a pending RFA next summer, and from what I've read here in this thread, there is some concern as to whether or not he will re-sign. I think that you Preds fans should be concerned as he is a fantastic player that any self-respecting GM would want to have on his team.

As has been pointed out, David Poile has a strict budget that he must adhere to if the organization is to be financially successful. It has also been pointed out that Ryan Suter is also up for a new contract. Both players will undoubtedly be looking for some sort of increase. Thus my first question on this particular topic: If both Weber and Suter are re-signed to the amounts suggested by another poster, will there be enough money left over to improve the rest of the team? If so, then how much would be available?

If it should happen that Weber gets to RFA status, does he have the right to go to arbitration? If yes, what are the chances that he decides to go that route?

If it becomes clear at some point in time that Weber chooses to leave, what would the Preds look for most and at what price?

I understand that he's your captain and face of the Preds organization, and not only that, but is a huge fan favorite. I would be concerned as well if I were in your position. However, it may be best to consider trade options if things don't otherwise work out. And now, here's my last question in this post:

If the following trade proposal were to be offered up, what would be the likelihood of it being accepted?

To Nashville:
(D) Dion Phaneuf ($6.5M with 3 more seasons after this one)
(LW) Luca Caputi ($833, 333 including bonuses; coming off ELC)
+ mid-level prospect (if necessary)

To Toronto:
(D) Shea Weber (pending RFA)

The rationale is this: if the Preds find that they have to trade Weber, they should get a quality package in return. If it's expected that Weber will demand in the neighbourhood of $6.5M, would it not be best to get a quality replacement plus another cheap asset? Phaneuf and Weber are newly-minted captains and are both essentially the same age (both are 25 y/o) and Phaneuf has had comparable, if not better, overall offensive skills while Weber probably has better defensive skills. Phaneuf does have a Norris Trophy nomination to his credit; I'm not sure if Weber has one.. I can't seem to remember.

Essentially, both defencemen are very similar, with the only difference being that Phaneuf is already locked up for another three years after this one.

The reason for adding Caputi is that he would likely get more ice-time than he would otherwise get in Toronto and he's cheap, which I know is a factor that Poile has to consider whenever he makes/accepts a deal. A mid-level prospect could also be added if Poile wants a little more.

Anyway, that's my post. Any enlightening answers will be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

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11-19-2010, 05:24 AM
  #43
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I'll respond without quoting you, Euca, simply to save room.

First of all, we should have won that game. It was mostly our inability to keep up the pressure. We stopped skating as hard, and as a result took bad penalties in bunches. Some of the calls were phantom, but our PK wasn't up to the job anyway.

Secondly, I don't think many Preds fans are that concerned about Weber leaving. A few think Poile isn't doing enough, and that it will eventually lead to Weber walking. I don't know much about negotiating, but I do know that when one party appears desperate the other party can, and often will, demand the moon. After all, if someone is desperate for your services, you can demand anything.

As far as I'm concerned there is no reason to panic at all. Team President, Cigarran, was quoted in an interview that most of us heard as saying that the team "knows the ball park of what Shea Weber wants, and is prepared to give it to him." NHL contracts can be incredibly complex, and with the Kovie deal any long term deal has to be hammered out carefully. Add to that our internal budget and it becomes more complicated. We also have to make sure we can pay other players like Suter, Hornqvist, Rinne, and now O'Reilly when the time comes, and we can all assume that when Weber is re-signed it will definitely be a contract that lasts well beyond each of those players' current contracts.

Further, I don't think the budget is nearly as strict now as it was just a couple of seasons ago. The team is making significantly more in revenue now than it was just four years ago, and attendance is up early in the year this year. Not just up, but up dramatically. Typically we don't see these attendance numbers until the football seasons (college included) end. This season we've been seeing our typical February-April numbers from the get-go. Added attendance dollars lessens our dependence on full revenue sharing which, in turn, allows us to spend beyond the cap mid-point. Assuming the trend continues we should be fine.

As for your trade proposal, I'm wondering why we take on $6.5mil for Dion Phaneuf when he's been less than impressive for the last couple of seasons. Granted, I haven't seen a lot of him since he shipped over to Toronto, but even if he were comparable to Weber why do we pay him half a million-to-one million less than what we can likely give to Weber? Especially if we're also taking on another $833k. I don't think the value is there, and I don't think the money makes sense. Weber is vastly more important to our club than Phaneuf to yours. No offense, and that isn't to say Weber is vastly more talented, but in terms of value to an individual club it isn't comparable.

Anyway, I have to get ready for work. I hope this answers your questions.

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Old
11-19-2010, 06:46 AM
  #44
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Trading Weber for a player with a 6.5M salary is beyond stupid.

Also trading Weber for 4 round picks is risky. What if they trade him to the Oilers and he becomes the final piece along with the maturation of the other young prospects on the team. Would you want to trade Weber for pick 26, 28, 30 and 25? So we can take more "hard working good player with some skill but not elite?

The owners made a promise to keep Weber and Suter "for a very long time" I expect them to honor that and have no reason at this time to think different. We all knew Hamhuis and Ellis were gone for both financial and growth reasons. Owners never said anything different and for the most part they were logical moves.

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11-19-2010, 08:44 AM
  #45
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Thank you, ThirdManIn, for responding to my questions. It was very informative and helped me to understand your hockey organization a little better. Unfortunately, I don't get to see the Preds too often.

As for the proposal that I put forth, I was working under the assumption (based off of another poster's comment) that Shea Weber might ask for/demand a contract close to, if not identical to, Dion Phaneuf's $6.5M and could possibly get it. I also thought, based upon a different post in this thread, that maybe you guys could use a young and inexpensive left winger who could develop into a decent power-forward (Luca Caputi). The prospect was pretty much a throw-in. I guess I was erroneous in my thinking.. my bad on that one. And, by the way, no offense taken regarding your critique of my proposal. lol I'm not very good at them right now, but I am trying to get better at them. At least I understand that you have to give quality in order to get quality, which seems to be more knowledge than what you'll usually see in the Trade Forum threads. lol

The other main reason why I made the proposal is because I would rather have Shea Weber on the Leafs over Dion Phaneuf; it's a personal preference. You guys are quite fortunate to have such a great defenceman in Weber. He's always been one of my favorites, and I don't have many favorites.

Anyway, thanks again for the information.

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11-19-2010, 11:08 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Paranoid Android View Post
Definitely current talent > future talent. We have the best prospect pool in the league, we don't need any more draft picks. If it looks like a deal can't get done with Weber then I think he'll be traded in a package that includes a roster player. Getzlaf is reaching though.
You don't think Weber could fetch Getzlaf plus??


Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundgarden View Post
Do we pick a defender with the No. 1 pick?
I think we are strong with Ryan Ellis, Jon Blum, Roman Josi, and C-O Roussel all coming up in the system. Get a forward if it happened!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
I'll make one comment. Anaheim had Pronger and Niedermayer on the blue line two years ago. Pronger was traded, Niedermayer retired. Let's say we trade Weber and lose Suter to free agency, basically the same thing, where are we? We're like Anaheim except we still don't have a number 1 line and our d-corp is either young and inexperienced or young, inexperienced and not ready to handle the rigors of the NHL. While getting a nice package back for both of those guys would be nice, we'll never get the value that are Weber and Suter in any trade package or compensatory draft picks.
Weber is an RFA, Suter will be a UFA at end of next season. I say get Shea signed up and then we figure out what will happen with Suts. If he does walk, at least we can get compensation for him and still definitely keep Weber.



Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
Trading Weber for a player with a 6.5M salary is beyond stupid.
Also trading Weber for 4 round picks is risky. What if they trade him to the Oilers and he becomes the final piece along with the maturation of the other young prospects on the team. Would you want to trade Weber for pick 26, 28, 30 and 25? So we can take more "hard working good player with some skill but not elite?

The owners made a promise to keep Weber and Suter "for a very long time" I expect them to honor that and have no reason at this time to think different. We all knew Hamhuis and Ellis were gone for both financial and growth reasons. Owners never said anything different and for the most part they were logical moves.

Especially a meathead like Phaneuf!! hahahaha

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11-19-2010, 02:31 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
The owners made a promise to keep Weber and Suter "for a very long time" I expect them to honor that and have no reason at this time to think different. We all knew Hamhuis and Ellis were gone for both financial and growth reasons. Owners never said anything different and for the most part they were logical moves.
Only thing that wasn't logical was that we held on the Hamhuis when we knew he was gone, meanwhile let Zanon walk, and missed a huge opportunity to get major value for Hamhuis and improve our team.

I think the owners/Poile want to sign both Weber and Suter. But, there are a lot of unknowns. If Weber wants 8m, do we give it to him? Honestly, he could probably fetch it on the open market.

Also, Weber/Suter may want to see where this team is going before he signs long term. Sure, they say they like it here, but who doesn't say that about their team? (except for players in Edmonton). There are no guarantees or indications they've made up their mind to stay long-term in Nashville.

The Pronger/Neidermayer comparison is off. First off, both are better than Suter/Weber. Second, Anaheim won a cup with them. We still haven't gotten out of the 1st round. It's not like this combo is leading us to the promised land right now. Now if you're Pittsburgh, you are saying it's OK to dump a huge amount a money on two players, because those 2 have carried them to the Cup Finals in 2 of the last 3 years.

We dont know the answer. It's up to Poile to get a read on if he's going to be able to sign them long term for a reasonable price. If not, you seriously have to consider trading one of them.

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Old
11-19-2010, 04:16 PM
  #48
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first, i think you are way off thinking weber would want 8 million a year. I think the 6-7 range is good for him over a 5-6 year span. same with suter. if both took 6 million a year it is a 1.5 and 2.5 million dollar bum, respectivily, right? i would think the money from hamhuis contact, the million saved from arnott to lombardi, and dumont coming off the books would offset these two deals. I don't think money is a problem. if there is a problem, it will be whether or not they want to stay

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11-19-2010, 04:45 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by token grinder View Post
first, i think you are way off thinking weber would want 8 million a year. I think the 6-7 range is good for him over a 5-6 year span. same with suter. if both took 6 million a year it is a 1.5 and 2.5 million dollar bum, respectivily, right? i would think the money from hamhuis contact, the million saved from arnott to lombardi, and dumont coming off the books would offset these two deals. I don't think money is a problem. if there is a problem, it will be whether or not they want to stay
I don't think he wants 8 million. I think there's a chance he could. And I think there's a 'decent' chance some team would be willing to pay him 8 million, which is the main reason he could want 8m.

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11-19-2010, 04:52 PM
  #50
jcupp
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
Only thing that wasn't logical was that we held on the Hamhuis when we knew he was gone, meanwhile let Zanon walk, and missed a huge opportunity to get major value for Hamhuis and improve our team.

I think the owners/Poile want to sign both Weber and Suter. But, there are a lot of unknowns. If Weber wants 8m, do we give it to him? Honestly, he could probably fetch it on the open market.

Also, Weber/Suter may want to see where this team is going before he signs long term. Sure, they say they like it here, but who doesn't say that about their team? (except for players in Edmonton). There are no guarantees or indications they've made up their mind to stay long-term in Nashville.

The Pronger/Neidermayer comparison is off. First off, both are better than Suter/Weber. Second, Anaheim won a cup with them. We still haven't gotten out of the 1st round. It's not like this combo is leading us to the promised land right now. Now if you're Pittsburgh, you are saying it's OK to dump a huge amount a money on two players, because those 2 have carried them to the Cup Finals in 2 of the last 3 years.

We dont know the answer. It's up to Poile to get a read on if he's going to be able to sign them long term for a reasonable price. If not, you seriously have to consider trading one of them.
I pretty much agree with all of this.

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