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Old
12-23-2010, 03:33 PM
  #951
Cmox
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Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
The point you're missing is that we are lucky enough to have a few guys around here who can give you much more detailed, interesting information much further in advance than any app, widget, or website can.

That's besides the point though. It shouldn't matter how easily accessible the information is elsewhere. I might not understand the forum rules well enough, but it would make sense to me for the forum to be flexible enough to accomodate the desires of the community. I think it's pretty clear that there is a lot of interest in a weather thread here, but whoever makes that decision disagrees. C'est la vie.

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12-23-2010, 03:36 PM
  #952
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I like pancakes.

Oh yeah, this is important, meanwhile people complain that weather reports, something that helps us in our everyday life, are not wanted here

Quote:
Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
The point you're missing is that we are lucky enough to have a few guys around here who can give you much more detailed, interesting information much further in advance than any app, widget, or website can.

That's besides the point though. It shouldn't matter how easily accessible the information is elsewhere. I might not understand the forum rules well enough, but it would make sense to me for the forum to be flexible enough to accomodate the desires of the community. I think it's pretty clear that there is a lot of interest in a weather thread here, but whoever makes that decision disagrees. C'est la vie.

From the side.
Exactly, having the info way in advance has helped alot, last Winter HP got 3 of the 4 storms correct way ahead of weather sources I check. He's an MVP of this board

Makes sense too, most of us live in the metro area. Weather reports are crucial. We have the longest commutes than any big City in the USA.

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12-23-2010, 03:37 PM
  #953
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Discussion from the side; an OT thread

Admittedly when I requested this thread I wasnt expecting it to become nearly as awesome as it has.

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12-23-2010, 03:38 PM
  #954
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Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
The point you're missing is that we are lucky enough to have a few guys around here who can give you much more detailed, interesting information much further in advance than any app, widget, or website can.

That's besides the point though. It shouldn't matter how easily accessible the information is elsewhere. I might not understand the forum rules well enough, but it would make sense to me for the forum to be flexible enough to accomodate the desires of the community. I think it's pretty clear that there is a lot of interest in a weather thread here, but whoever makes that decision disagrees. C'est la vie.

From the side.
wow that was an epic post.

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12-23-2010, 03:41 PM
  #955
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Originally Posted by UAGoalieGuy View Post
So i'm guessing we will not get your opinion on what you think might happened until then? lol
I promise I'll have more thoughts tonight and possibly a final call on the threat. If guidance throws another curve tonight I'll 100% give you my opinion at 12z tomorrow.

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Old
12-23-2010, 03:46 PM
  #956
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Originally Posted by hpNYR View Post
I promise I'll have more thoughts tonight and possibly a final call on the threat. If guidance throws another curve tonight I'll 100% give you my opinion at 12z tomorrow.
What is guidance? lol If things don't change from the most recent model, we won't get hit, right?

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12-23-2010, 03:51 PM
  #957
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Originally Posted by Bluenote13 View Post
Oh yeah, this is important, meanwhile people complain that weather reports, something that helps us in our everyday life, are not wanted here


Exactly, having the info way in advance has helped alot, last Winter HP got 3 of the 4 storms correct way ahead of weather sources I check. He's an MVP of this board

Makes sense too, most of us live in the metro area. Weather reports are crucial. We have the longest commutes than any big City in the USA.
It's not often Bluenote and I agree on something, but here's a case where we do.

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Old
12-23-2010, 04:10 PM
  #958
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It's not often Bluenote and I agree on something, but here's a case where we do.
Definitely the first time we've agreed this year. It only took until December 23rd, but hey tis the season


Last edited by nyr2k2: 12-23-2010 at 04:46 PM.
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Old
12-23-2010, 04:11 PM
  #959
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Here are my thought on the potential Sunday/Monday snow storm.

Most of the deterministic operational forecast models (GFS, NAM, ECMWF, CMC) are now indicating the storm will track too far east to bring significant snowfall to the NYC/Long Island area. This is why I previously warned hpNYR about hyping this up to be a megastorm. A day or two ago, even though the ECMWF and some of the GFS and CMC runs were indicating a major nor'easter, most of the GFS ensemble members (about 12-15 out of the 21) were indicating the storm would be too far east to produce large snowfall totals. I tried to tell everyone to wait until at least Friday before they started freaking out...and I still think it will be tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night before we know what is going to happen for sure (hopefully).

This being said, NYC/Long Island is not out of the woods. There has been a great deal of uncertainty all along with this forecast. It looks less likely there will be a major winter storm today than it did yesterday. However, a few of the GFS ensemble members are still indicating a big snow storm for this area.

Stay tuned to your local news stations for the details. Also pay attention to the NWS, but don't just look at the point forecasts. Also read the forecast discussions, which are much more informative: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/Discussion.htm. Stay away from weather.com, The Weather Channel, accuweather and those types of places.

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12-23-2010, 04:18 PM
  #960
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Originally Posted by hpNYR View Post
Moving east would mean it's moving away from land. This is what happens in a LA-NINA as it's typically cold and dry.

Will wait till tonights 00z before we put a nail in the coffin for anything substantial. I'd even say tomorrow 12z, but you guys are ansy lol.
You can't say that the reason this storm might be going out to sea is because of La Nina. Over the course of the entire winter season more storms might track further east due to La Nina, but you can't say individual storms tracked further east because of it.

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Old
12-23-2010, 04:26 PM
  #961
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
The point you're missing is that we are lucky enough to have a few guys around here who can give you much more detailed, interesting information much further in advance than any app, widget, or website can.

That's besides the point though. It shouldn't matter how easily accessible the information is elsewhere. I might not understand the forum rules well enough, but it would make sense to me for the forum to be flexible enough to accomodate the desires of the community. I think it's pretty clear that there is a lot of interest in a weather thread here, but whoever makes that decision disagrees. C'est la vie.

From the side.
I agree with this as well. Tried to bring something like this up yesterday and was censored. This would be a nice separate off topic thread. I find our resident weathermen to be very interesting, keep it up. Nice with a little hockey spliced in. Too bad for everyone involved (those who care and those who don't) it has to be mixed in with unrelated OT comments.

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Old
12-23-2010, 04:33 PM
  #962
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So what are the odds of there being a decent amount of snow fall for Long Island, at this point in time? lol

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Old
12-23-2010, 04:38 PM
  #963
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scooter17 View Post
Here are my thought on the potential Sunday/Monday snow storm.

Most of the deterministic operational forecast models (GFS, NAM, ECMWF, CMC) are now indicating the storm will track too far east to bring significant snowfall to the NYC/Long Island area. This is why I previously warned hpNYR about hyping this up to be a megastorm. A day or two ago, even though the ECMWF and some of the GFS and CMC runs were indicating a major nor'easter, most of the GFS ensemble members (about 12-15 out of the 21) were indicating the storm would be too far east to produce large snowfall totals. I tried to tell everyone to wait until at least Friday before they started freaking out...and I still think it will be tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night before we know what is going to happen for sure (hopefully).

This being said, NYC/Long Island is not out of the woods. There has been a great deal of uncertainty all along with this forecast. It looks less likely there will be a major winter storm today than it did yesterday. However, a few of the GFS ensemble members are still indicating a big snow storm for this area.

Stay tuned to your local news stations for the details. Also pay attention to the NWS, but don't just look at the point forecasts. Also read the forecast discussions, which are much more informative: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/Discussion.htm. Stay away from weather.com, The Weather Channel, accuweather and those types of places.


In the midst of a three hour break from work,

I agree, but I want to add about the situation (at least from my point of view)

A) The American models and the GFS haven't had much time to ingest any Upper Air Data; which shows from the different solutions it's been given.
B) In generally, this entire area needs MULTIPLE things to go right and fall into place to see just a snow storm, yet alone something really big. During a La Nina year, or rather, in the current situation we're in right now (not really a la nina pattern at the moment), it's even harder to get things to go right.
B2) Adding on to B, we need a few things to go right that are actually quite delicate in terms of sustaining; but we're not too far off from seeing them fall into place. The phasing is the key to the entire storm.

When the Euro depicted it's major blizzard for many days in a row, while I really hoped it would pan out and was relying on it being a hi-res model and catching onto things faster and more correct than the other models, I was still worried with how it brought the southern energy so far south ALONG with bringing the northern short wave so far south as well.

We had:

- Major PV over the Maritimes 50/50 that allowed for some blocking.
- -AO values.
- The northern s/w digging south
- The southern energy digging south
- Phase at JUST the right time
- 200/300mb Jet streak diving southwards due to the ridging which occurred during/right after the phase
- Brought the trof negative early enough that as the severe cyclogenesis occurred from phasing it was also being combined with GOM moisture and hitting the Atlantic.
- Storm started slowing down and digging up the coast following the trof
- Stayed close to the coast while bombogenesis occurred after passing the NC coast.
- Trof tilts further negative with the blocking feature not being to strong to keep the storm close to the coast
- We all get a nasty blizzard.

While all this was going on, the precip shield was -still- not impressive on the Euro and other models that had a similar solution to the Euro. While I like looking at MSLP and precipitation values, H5 is much more important before we get 2-3 days out.

Other models had the same thing going wrong. So while this is what the "Euro-Perfect-Solution" showed, it is in fact what we're trying to hope for.

All of the models are still not handling neither the southern energy/nothern s/w well, well, because of the flopping and the horrible inconsistent timing. Until I see the GFS and NAM lock onto something at h5 that is consistent, I'm not ruling anything out. We're not at the point "of no return" as in, if a few of the models are handling something wrong, it could completely change the time of the phase and everything else.


Anyway, thanks to those have been giving their gratitude and opinions (sorry about infractions if you received them ) to us. It makes me glad to hear that some people come to these boards for weather updates.

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Old
12-23-2010, 04:43 PM
  #964
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
In the midst of a three hour break from work,

I agree, but I want to add about the situation (at least from my point of view)

A) The American models and the GFS haven't had much time to ingest any Upper Air Data; which shows from the different solutions it's been given.
B) In generally, this entire area needs MULTIPLE things to go right and fall into place to see just a snow storm, yet alone something really big. During a La Nina year, or rather, in the current situation we're in right now (not really a la nina pattern at the moment), it's even harder to get things to go right.
B2) Adding on to B, we need a few things to go right that are actually quite delicate in terms of sustaining; but we're not too far off from seeing them fall into place. The phasing is the key to the entire storm.

When the Euro depicted it's major blizzard for many days in a row, while I really hoped it would pan out and was relying on it being a hi-res model and catching onto things faster and more correct than the other models, I was still worried with how it brought the southern energy so far south ALONG with bringing the northern short wave so far south as well.

We had:

- Major PV over the Maritimes 50/50 that allowed for some blocking.
- -AO values.
- The northern s/w digging south
- The southern energy digging south
- Phase at JUST the right time
- 200/300mb Jet streak diving southwards due to the ridging which occurred during/right after the phase
- Brought the trof negative early enough that as the severe cyclogenesis occurred from phasing it was also being combined with GOM moisture and hitting the Atlantic.
- Storm started slowing down and digging up the coast following the trof
- Stayed close to the coast while bombogenesis occurred after passing the NC coast.
- Trof tilts further negative with the blocking feature not being to strong to keep the storm close to the coast
- We all get a nasty blizzard.

While all this was going on, the precip shield was -still- not impressive on the Euro and other models that had a similar solution to the Euro. While I like looking at MSLP and precipitation values, H5 is much more important before we get 2-3 days out.

Other models had the same thing going wrong. So while this is what the "Euro-Perfect-Solution" showed, it is in fact what we're trying to hope for.

All of the models are still not handling neither the southern energy/nothern s/w well, well, because of the flopping and the horrible inconsistent timing. Until I see the GFS and NAM lock onto something at h5 that is consistent, I'm not ruling anything out. We're not at the point "of no return" as in, if a few of the models are handling something wrong, it could completely change the time of the phase and everything else.


Anyway, thanks to those have been giving their gratitude and opinions (sorry about infractions if you received them ) to us. It makes me glad to hear that some people come to these boards for weather updates.
So what exactly, does all that mean in terms of a storm coming our way? Still too far off to tell?

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Old
12-23-2010, 04:43 PM
  #965
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what do you consider a decent amount? lol

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Old
12-23-2010, 04:48 PM
  #966
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
In the midst of a three hour break from work,

I agree, but I want to add about the situation (at least from my point of view)

A) The American models and the GFS haven't had much time to ingest any Upper Air Data; which shows from the different solutions it's been given.
B) In generally, this entire area needs MULTIPLE things to go right and fall into place to see just a snow storm, yet alone something really big. During a La Nina year, or rather, in the current situation we're in right now (not really a la nina pattern at the moment), it's even harder to get things to go right.
B2) Adding on to B, we need a few things to go right that are actually quite delicate in terms of sustaining; but we're not too far off from seeing them fall into place. The phasing is the key to the entire storm.

When the Euro depicted it's major blizzard for many days in a row, while I really hoped it would pan out and was relying on it being a hi-res model and catching onto things faster and more correct than the other models, I was still worried with how it brought the southern energy so far south ALONG with bringing the northern short wave so far south as well.

We had:

- Major PV over the Maritimes 50/50 that allowed for some blocking.
- -AO values.
- The northern s/w digging south
- The southern energy digging south
- Phase at JUST the right time
- 200/300mb Jet streak diving southwards due to the ridging which occurred during/right after the phase
- Brought the trof negative early enough that as the severe cyclogenesis occurred from phasing it was also being combined with GOM moisture and hitting the Atlantic.
- Storm started slowing down and digging up the coast following the trof
- Stayed close to the coast while bombogenesis occurred after passing the NC coast.
- Trof tilts further negative with the blocking feature not being to strong to keep the storm close to the coast
- We all get a nasty blizzard.

While all this was going on, the precip shield was -still- not impressive on the Euro and other models that had a similar solution to the Euro. While I like looking at MSLP and precipitation values, H5 is much more important before we get 2-3 days out.

Other models had the same thing going wrong. So while this is what the "Euro-Perfect-Solution" showed, it is in fact what we're trying to hope for.

All of the models are still not handling neither the southern energy/nothern s/w well, well, because of the flopping and the horrible inconsistent timing. Until I see the GFS and NAM lock onto something at h5 that is consistent, I'm not ruling anything out. We're not at the point "of no return" as in, if a few of the models are handling something wrong, it could completely change the time of the phase and everything else.


Anyway, thanks to those have been giving their gratitude and opinions (sorry about infractions if you received them ) to us. It makes me glad to hear that some people come to these boards for weather updates.
I truly wish I understood this, because I am fascinated by it.

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Old
12-23-2010, 04:53 PM
  #967
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Originally Posted by UAGoalieGuy View Post
So what exactly, does all that mean in terms of a storm coming our way? Still too far off to tell?

It means a few things, or rather, could mean a few things.

A) Models will never come to a real "solution" until 24-36 hours out, in which, obviously anything running up until then will be pointless because they will all depict different situations.

B) Trends are not going our way right now, but that doesn't mean it can't trend another way until then. We need to sit and see what the other suites say over the next day or two.

C) There is no doubt about it - the potential Exists - for a storm, we're in a good pattern for one, so the threat is there. It all depends on a few key things I covered above for us to get a really "good" storm. The potential for some snow in general is much higher than seeing a blizzard, but the potential for things to fall apart is just as high as seeing some snow.

I'll throw out my probabilities right now just based off of what I've seen today;

1. We see some snow, whether it's flurries or a few inches. 40% chance.
2. We see absolutely nothing and the storm is for the fish. 45 % chance.
3. We see the earlier Euro solution and get a massive storm. 15% chance.

The chance for a bigger storm is decreasing with the trends, but the entire pattern we're in is still highly fitting for some type of storm.

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Old
12-23-2010, 05:00 PM
  #968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
It means a few things, or rather, could mean a few things.

A) Models will never come to a real "solution" until 24-36 hours out, in which, obviously anything running up until then will be pointless because they will all depict different situations.

B) Trends are not going our way right now, but that doesn't mean it can't trend another way until then. We need to sit and see what the other suites say over the next day or two.

C) There is no doubt about it - the potential Exists - for a storm, we're in a good pattern for one, so the threat is there. It all depends on a few key things I covered above for us to get a really "good" storm. The potential for some snow in general is much higher than seeing a blizzard, but the potential for things to fall apart is just as high as seeing some snow.

I'll throw out my probabilities right now just based off of what I've seen today;

1. We see some snow, whether it's flurries or a few inches. 40% chance.
2. We see absolutely nothing and the storm is for the fish. 45 % chance.
3. We see the earlier Euro solution and get a massive storm. 15% chance.


The chance for a bigger storm is decreasing with the trends, but the entire pattern we're in is still highly fitting for some type of storm.
That's pretty much what I think as well. Maybe more like a 10% chance we see a foot of snow or more though.

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12-23-2010, 05:49 PM
  #969
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12-23-2010, 05:52 PM
  #970
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Old
12-23-2010, 05:59 PM
  #971
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[QUOTE=Bluenote13;29742456]Oh yeah, this is important, meanwhile people complain that weather reports, something that helps us in our everyday life, are not wanted here




I like how you missed the whole point of my post

If you're going to complain about "those" people then quote them because i'm not one of them.

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12-23-2010, 06:33 PM
  #972
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So since this first thread is almost done, I'm assuming the name of the 2nd OT thread is "From the Side." It's just too perfect of a name.

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12-23-2010, 06:34 PM
  #973
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Originally Posted by Purple McIlwraath View Post
So since this first thread is almost done, I'm assuming the name of the 2nd OT thread is "From the Side." It's just too perfect of a name.
That's what we have decided.

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12-23-2010, 06:34 PM
  #974
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OT Thread 2: Ryan Bozak Just Scored From the Side

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12-23-2010, 06:35 PM
  #975
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So since this first thread is almost done, I'm assuming the name of the 2nd OT thread is "From the Side." It's just too perfect of a name.
i can dig it

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