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Old
12-23-2010, 06:42 PM
  #976
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Old
12-23-2010, 06:43 PM
  #977
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Too bad, no visual edits.


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12-23-2010, 06:51 PM
  #978
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Too bad, no visual edits.

Haha, wow that's awesome!

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12-23-2010, 07:13 PM
  #979
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Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
It means a few things, or rather, could mean a few things.

A) Models will never come to a real "solution" until 24-36 hours out, in which, obviously anything running up until then will be pointless because they will all depict different situations.

B) Trends are not going our way right now, but that doesn't mean it can't trend another way until then. We need to sit and see what the other suites say over the next day or two.

C) There is no doubt about it - the potential Exists - for a storm, we're in a good pattern for one, so the threat is there. It all depends on a few key things I covered above for us to get a really "good" storm. The potential for some snow in general is much higher than seeing a blizzard, but the potential for things to fall apart is just as high as seeing some snow.

I'll throw out my probabilities right now just based off of what I've seen today;

1. We see some snow, whether it's flurries or a few inches. 40% chance.
2. We see absolutely nothing and the storm is for the fish. 45 % chance.
3. We see the earlier Euro solution and get a massive storm. 15% chance.

The chance for a bigger storm is decreasing with the trends, but the entire pattern we're in is still highly fitting for some type of storm.
Thanks for the insight. I'm kinda hoping for that 15%. Love huge snow storms, especially if it is mostly Sunday night into Monday. Job will be closed more then likely and I have more time to play my new video game my wife is getting me for Christmas! lol

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12-23-2010, 11:48 PM
  #980
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12-23-2010, 11:48 PM
  #981
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Originally Posted by Scooter17 View Post
You can't say that the reason this storm might be going out to sea is because of La Nina. Over the course of the entire winter season more storms might track further east due to La Nina, but you can't say individual storms tracked further east because of it.
You can easily say it's a characteristic of a La Nina track Not sure how you can say it's not.

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Old
12-24-2010, 12:02 AM
  #982
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Originally Posted by Scooter17 View Post
Here are my thought on the potential Sunday/Monday snow storm.

Most of the deterministic operational forecast models (GFS, NAM, ECMWF, CMC) are now indicating the storm will track too far east to bring significant snowfall to the NYC/Long Island area. This is why I previously warned hpNYR about hyping this up to be a megastorm. A day or two ago, even though the ECMWF and some of the GFS and CMC runs were indicating a major nor'easter, most of the GFS ensemble members (about 12-15 out of the 21) were indicating the storm would be too far east to produce large snowfall totals. I tried to tell everyone to wait until at least Friday before they started freaking out...and I still think it will be tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night before we know what is going to happen for sure (hopefully).

This being said, NYC/Long Island is not out of the woods. There has been a great deal of uncertainty all along with this forecast. It looks less likely there will be a major winter storm today than it did yesterday. However, a few of the GFS ensemble members are still indicating a big snow storm for this area.

Stay tuned to your local news stations for the details. Also pay attention to the NWS, but don't just look at the point forecasts. Also read the forecast discussions, which are much more informative: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/Discussion.htm. Stay away from weather.com, The Weather Channel, accuweather and those types of places.
Lol, you go after me every chance you get. Try going back and reading what I did. It may have sounded like I was hyping however it's in plain writing. I continuously emphasized that I am interpreting the model runs for everyone in the forum. It's basically a play by play of the runs whenever I have the chance. Obviously that's going to be erratic in nature b/c runs come in different each time. What you failed to read is that 2 days ago I reiterated that I do not like the EURO as it's known to slow systems down. I didn't like the earlier GFS runs and how progressive they are. I said that we may see something that's in between the two which in the end might give accumulating snows to some, especially the eastern sections of the forecast area. I have yet to make a forecast or a call on this storm so don't spin & put words in my mouth. Thanks.

Oh, as far as the GFS ensembles. Your statement doesn't make sense since the same ensembles you have been talking about have been coming west with each session since yesterday. That's not to say they are right, though.

One other thing, I try to keep my language simple b/c many of the people on these forums don't know some of the meteorological terms we use-- the interactions of the norther stream/southern stream/ AO #'s--s/w's- other analysis at the h5 level-CC'bs, which have creeped up on some of the runs, etc just to name a few.

Last three runs of your beloved GFS:

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Old
12-24-2010, 12:06 AM
  #983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
It means a few things, or rather, could mean a few things.

A) Models will never come to a real "solution" until 24-36 hours out, in which, obviously anything running up until then will be pointless because they will all depict different situations.

B) Trends are not going our way right now, but that doesn't mean it can't trend another way until then. We need to sit and see what the other suites say over the next day or two.

C) There is no doubt about it - the potential Exists - for a storm, we're in a good pattern for one, so the threat is there. It all depends on a few key things I covered above for us to get a really "good" storm. The potential for some snow in general is much higher than seeing a blizzard, but the potential for things to fall apart is just as high as seeing some snow.

I'll throw out my probabilities right now just based off of what I've seen today;

1. We see some snow, whether it's flurries or a few inches. 40% chance.
2. We see absolutely nothing and the storm is for the fish. 45 % chance.
3. We see the earlier Euro solution and get a massive storm. 15% chance.

The chance for a bigger storm is decreasing with the trends, but the entire pattern we're in is still highly fitting for some type of storm.
We aren't necessarily in a good pattern as much as one that has potential. The Nina aspect of it interferes w/ the digging, speed, and creates a scenario where you have to thread the needle to score a coup.

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12-24-2010, 12:48 AM
  #984
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hpNYR View Post
We aren't necessarily in a good pattern as much as one that has potential. The Nina aspect of it interferes w/ the digging, speed, and creates a scenario where you have to thread the needle to score a coup.
I disagree with that but it's alright

Yes, we're in a Nina pattern, but the last few weeks have shown no signs of a "true" nina pattern. We don't see really negative to severe NAO values for extended periods of times in a typical la nina, which is why we rarely have east coast storms like this.

But yes, I do agree somewhat, just that the pattern the last two weeks has been more conducive for a storm "within this period" for an actual storm to form.

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Old
12-24-2010, 01:08 AM
  #985
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hpNYR View Post
Lol, you go after me every chance you get. Try going back and reading what I did. It may have sounded like I was hyping however it's in plain writing. I continuously emphasized that I am interpreting the model runs for everyone in the forum. It's basically a play by play of the runs whenever I have the chance. Obviously that's going to be erratic in nature b/c runs come in different each time. What you failed to read is that 2 days ago I reiterated that I do not like the EURO as it's known to slow systems down. I didn't like the earlier GFS runs and how progressive they are. I said that we may see something that's in between the two which in the end might give accumulating snows to some, especially the eastern sections of the forecast area. I have yet to make a forecast or a call on this storm so don't spin & put words in my mouth. Thanks.

Oh, as far as the GFS ensembles. Your statement doesn't make sense since the same ensembles you have been talking about have been coming west with each session since yesterday. That's not to say they are right, though.

One other thing, I try to keep my language simple b/c many of the people on these forums don't know some of the meteorological terms we use-- the interactions of the norther stream/southern stream/ AO #'s--s/w's- other analysis at the h5 level-CC'bs, which have creeped up on some of the runs, etc just to name a few.

Last three runs of your beloved GFS:
a) When you say things like a storm has the potential to be historic 5-6-7 days before it is to occur that is over hyping. When you start throwing numbers like 1-2 feet of snow out 5-6-7 days ahead of time that is over hyping. There is a reason meteorologists don't start throwing numbers around until a day or two before a big snowfall event may occur.

b) The GFS ensembles have been all over the place from the beginning and they have not been coming further west since yesterday. The high resolution GFS forecasts (like the ones you show above) have been coming further west, but the ensembles have not.

c) I'm not advocating that the GFS is the best model. Statistically, I actually think its actually pretty well known that the ECMWF is the best. However, when you are looking at long range forecasts you generally can't say one model is better than another. You have to look at the range of possibilities, which is why ensembles are so important. The ensembles have been indicating all along that the probability of a big snow storm was low.

And as far as the La Nina thing goes, I can assure you can't say this particular storm is going out to sea (if it does) because of La Nina. Like ScottB said earlier, we are not in a La Nina-like pattern. The track of this storm is being governed by the synoptic scale pattern. La Nina is a planetary scale phenomenon.

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Old
12-24-2010, 01:12 AM
  #986
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We found a name for this thread... "The Weather Thread" <---- make this happen 2k2

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12-24-2010, 01:25 AM
  #987
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Gotta finish this thread off tonight fellas. So we can start a new one.

From the side.

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Old
12-24-2010, 01:28 AM
  #988
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Why don't they just name this thread(s) "From The Side"?

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12-24-2010, 01:30 AM
  #989
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That's what's gonna happen with the next one. There's no point in doing it now with ~10 posts left.

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12-24-2010, 01:30 AM
  #990
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Originally Posted by Brian Boyle View Post
That's what's gonna happen with the next one. There's no point in doing it now with ~10 posts left.
That's what I ment to begin with.

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Old
12-24-2010, 01:32 AM
  #991
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Gotcha.

Can't wait for Saturday...gettin' me some Ranger apparel.

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Old
12-24-2010, 01:35 AM
  #992
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Lol scooter you have the wrong person bud. I never called for 1 to 2 feet. Scott mentioned the possibility of it though. So talk to him about that. I did mention the possibility of a historic storm if the euro were to verify.... and its pretty clear youre lacking reading comprehension.

As far as not being in a La Nina you cannot possibly be anymore wrong. We are in a weak La Nina right now and it certainly is an affect as to how these systems like to behave. The stj is very weak and wants to shear these event. Were relying on the northern stream to do a lot of the dirty work and phase .... but thats asking for a thread the needle scenario.

Give me a favor and dont taint as to what have said and in what respect.... and while youre at it get off my balls. Thanks bra.

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12-24-2010, 01:38 AM
  #993
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Storm or no storm?

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Old
12-24-2010, 01:45 AM
  #994
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Storm and no storm!

No idea yet. Models are all over the place.

And yeah, I mentioned numbers, but that was based off of the 3th or 4th straight run from the Euro and what it showed. I know it's never good to say any numbers because that's all that people will read into, but I did anyway. Oops.

I never pinpoint amounts until I can at least seeing my own amounts verifying by checking them against a few solutions. Like this storm, I wouldn't give out amounts in a forecast until at least Friday night/Saturday afternoon, depending on what was/is going on.

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12-24-2010, 01:46 AM
  #995
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What's it gonna look like in Northern New Jersey?(Nutley/Newark area) Any chance of heavy snow?

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Old
12-24-2010, 01:51 AM
  #996
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Balej20 View Post
Storm or no storm?
Euro is in and it's status quo to its 12z depiction. It's to far east to provide the area with anything significant.

Since I will be busy all day tomorrow b/c I'm flying to Cali the next day...I'll give it a jab for you right now....with another mini update tomorrow.

If I had to make a call right now, as boneheaded as it might be I would go with 2-5 inches for the area with NYC closer to the 2-3" mark and parts of LI closer to the 5" mark.

That would be my initial forecast. Scooter probably just got his panties in a bunch

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12-24-2010, 02:00 AM
  #997
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Just got back from my job's holiday party. It's shocking how much people who work at a bar can actually drink haha.

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Old
12-24-2010, 02:25 AM
  #998
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hpNYR View Post
Euro is in and it's status quo to its 12z depiction. It's to far east to provide the area with anything significant.

Since I will be busy all day tomorrow b/c I'm flying to Cali the next day...I'll give it a jab for you right now....with another mini update tomorrow.

If I had to make a call right now, as boneheaded as it might be I would go with 2-5 inches for the area with NYC closer to the 2-3" mark and parts of LI closer to the 5" mark.

That would be my initial forecast. Scooter probably just got his panties in a bunch
Seriously, what is your problem? Am I not allowed to disagree with you? Didn't you tell me to grow up in an earlier post?

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