Good job paying attention to only part of what I said. The point was that even though some high-risk, high-return prospects may not make it, those who do are worth 3-5 "safe" prospects together.
Yeah I get what you're saying, but since not every high ceiling prospect makes it, it's not in the best interest to put all of the eggs in that basket. Every top10 pick that busted may have been worth two or 3 second rounders at the time, but since then those late picks may have helped their team win cups. Just like the top10s who didn't bust did as well.
It's just a ranking, it's not like because Sauer is more valuable now he forever will be, and Slats will go out and trade him tomorrow. One year from now Wrath may be the top prospect, who knows?
I understand your point too. Sometimes prospects are just too high a risk to even draft. Like that skinny little kid who couldn't even skate that well despite his small size. What was his name... Wayne something. He was not drafted in the 70s and had to start his career in the WHA.
But in all seriousness, I do understand that some high-risk, high-return prospects are just too high-risk.
I get that some become Jessiman... though some become Getzlaf. If the Rangers added a run-of-the-mill guy like Sundstrom to the roster, how much better would they have been?
As a general rule, I will go for potential difference-makers over someone who can be signed inexpensively as a free agent.
I want more guys like Chris Thomas. Sure, he may bust. But if he makes it, it will be a beautiful sight in MSG.
In the future, if we have a choice between another Sundstrom or going for a guy who may turn out to be Getzlaf or Jessiman, go for the Getzlaf/Jessiman guy. We can always sign someone like Frolov to replace a Sundstrom. There's nothing you can do to acquire Getzlaf short of giving up half of your roster and paying him $10 a year.
For every Christian Thomas pick, there has to be a Dubinsky, or a Yogan.
If it was all high risk picks, we would end up having to fill massive portions of our team with unrestricted free agents. And they wouldnt all be bargains like Fedotenko.
At this point, that is not a concern for us. We have a spectacular number of youngsters on the NHL roster and in the system.
Even if we fail to draft a single NHLer for the next 5 years, I don't think we'll wind up with a situation where we are thinking, "oh my God, we are really short on Fedotenko/Sundstrom-type guys."
The number of good prospects/players under 23 that we have is just staggering.
Those guys like Callahan, Anisimov, Zucca, Boyle, Hagelin, Werek, Weise, even Prust who's still only 26, will be the average second/third liners every team needs. Not all of them, but enough of them will be that we should have a solid bunch created out of them when they mature.
What we need are more guys like Kreider, Thomas, Bourque, Horak, Fasth, Grachev, etc. They may become total busts, but they may become above-average second liners or even stars.
That is even more true on defense where we have probably 10 decent to good prospects/young NHLers: Staal, McD, Girardi, Sauer, McIlrath, McD, McNasty, Niemi, Kundratek, Valentenko, etc.
There's just no reason for us to go for role players anymore.
I am ok getting 5 guys named Dube and Jessiman, if it means we'll also pull a Savard or a Getzlaf somewhere there.
In the summer, I really hope we'll spend all our picks on guys like Dube/Savard and Jessiman/Getzlaf. We simply don't have the space for all these 2-3 liners. We need to draft 1-2 stars, and the only way to do it is to go for high-risk, high-return guys.