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Flyers’ Meszaros Quietly Having Banner Year

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Old
01-07-2011, 01:56 PM
  #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
So, assuming I just tallied that correct, you have 36 D in the NHL getting 4+M cap hits. So, lets just nip it in the bud that the going rate for a 4-5-6 (what Meszaros is right now) is in the ballpark for him.
Unfortunately for you, Meszaros is a 2-3-4 getting paid like a 2-3-4 and playing like a 2-3-4 in the role of a 4-5-6.

It's not a hard concept.

You want a dominant 3rd pairing? Then you pay a 2-3-4 to play a 4-5-6. Just because he's dominating lesser competition doesn't mean you overpaid him. You pay for that dominance. If you want a mediocre 3rd pairing then go ahead and throw $2m at some chump. We didn't want a mediocre 3rd pairing and, because of Meszaros, we didn't get a mediocre 3rd pairing.

You pay what you get for.

Of course he's overpaid right? He's only leading the NHL is +/-, putting up a respectable amount of points, playing solid defense no matter who he's playing against, stepping up and playing against tougher competition when injury situations arise, logging the most minutes on some nights and a hefty chunk of the minutes on others, and doing it all very quietly and under the radar.

That's called return for investment, but you have Holmgren hate shoved so far up your butt that you can't admit that he made the right call; that something is really working out. Instead everyone has to be overpaid, or making boneheaded plays, or not pulling his weight. If you want to hate the world then be my guest, but don't grasp at straws when arguing the logistics of whether a player performing extremely well is being "overpaid."

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01-07-2011, 02:03 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
You could say that Meszaros has been lining up against:

Shelley - Shelley - Shelley
Shelley - Shelley

Every night, but I'd still think $4m is justified. What else are you going to spend his money on? You want 5 top 4 defensemen then you're going to have to pay for 5 top 4 defensemen regardless of where they play in your lineup. Just because you think his salary is not justified because of where he is playing in the lineup doesn't make you right.
Because you think his salary is jsutified doesnt make you right either. Despite what you think, your opinions are not fact Cliff.

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01-07-2011, 02:04 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Yeah, that's the real problem with the 4M salary. He's played well for this club, but most competent D would given the assignment he has drawn. You could sign a guy like Eaton for a notably cheaper deal and get good play out of that roster spot... or, hell, see if Bartulis could become a legit D in this league and, if necessary, make a deal for a veteran for the 3rd pairing at the deadline.
I'd be happy with Eaton. Players that quietly do well are always nice to have.

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01-07-2011, 02:04 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester
You can argue that Meszaros has been a good addition to this team... but if he were an UFA tomorrow, he almost certainly does not sign the deal he's currently playing under. Probably signs for (at least) a million less.... especially coming off the years he had in TB. While his +/- is impressive for this club, his lack of production on the PP is quite notable given that he gets minutes there. It also has to be accounted for that he's playing among the easiest shifts on the entire team.
I'm not so sure. Look at what Dan Hamhuis just signed for last offseason.

I take the +/- with a definite grain of salt but I don't really care about the stats. Just watching Mezsaros play its obvious that he has been a real important addition to this team and I think he's easily worth 3.5 / year. I'm not going to raise a stink over that

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01-07-2011, 02:08 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Unfortunately for you, Meszaros is a 2-3-4 getting paid like a 2-3-4 and playing like a 2-3-4 in the role of a 4-5-6.

It's not a hard concept.

You want a dominant 3rd pairing? Then you pay a 2-3-4 to play a 4-5-6. Just because he's dominating lesser competition doesn't mean you overpaid him. You pay for that dominance. If you want a mediocre 3rd pairing then go ahead and throw $2m at some chump. We didn't want a mediocre 3rd pairing and, because of Meszaros, we didn't get a mediocre 3rd pairing.

You pay what you get for.

Of course he's overpaid right? He's only leading the NHL is +/-, putting up a respectable amount of points, playing solid defense no matter who he's playing against, stepping up and playing against tougher competition when injury situations arise, logging the most minutes on some nights and a hefty chunk of the minutes on others, and doing it all very quietly and under the radar.

That's called return for investment, but you have Holmgren hate shoved so far up your butt that you can't admit that he made the right call; that something is really working out. Instead everyone has to be overpaid, or making boneheaded plays, or not pulling his weight. If you want to hate the world then be my guest, but don't grasp at straws when arguing the logistics of whether a player performing extremely well is being "overpaid."
He's a 4 (right now). Similar to Carle and Coburn, you don't want him running a pairing on his own, and I wouldn't feel comfortable with him on a normal top paring (i.e. without a world class guy next to him). You can trot out +/- all you want, and I'm going to turn around and ask for your thoughts on Preissing. +/- is the most gimmicky stat in hockey if you use it as a bludgeon and without context.

Return on the investment means that you get what you pay for (and then some). For 4M, you should be getting more than a void on the PP and a third pairing D, and that's just a *ing fact of life.

The fact of the matter is that you had a hard on for him from Day 1, and similar to many of your hard ons you have no objective view of him. The fact of the matter is that he's been playing the third pairing shift, and playing well against weak competition. He should. He's been brutal at the top of the 2nd unit PP (so has Carle). He's loaded up an absurd +/- total, which we've seen many times before in this league by D on strong teams playing easier shifts and/or getting the luck of a superior partner.

We're paying for more than we need to on the third pairing, and that's just a fact. The fact that you are incapable of understanding contextualized analysis (which is not critical of the play Meszaros has provided on the third pairing) is a fault in your ability to deal with critical analysis you are predisposed to tune out.

It isn't about "hate." Meszaros has played well for the Flyers. But he continues to display that he isn't worth the 4M that TB signed him up for (to be a top pairing guy) and then dumped onto us in order to get rid of that contract.

He's overpaid... and that statement ain't hate. We could get similar levels of play (at cheaper cost) from other players. That isn't hate. Meszaros is getting paid what he's getting paid, and that's nice for him... doesn't mean he's earned it.

Same deal with Carle... who also was signed to a big contract early on, and has never entirely lived up to it.

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Old
01-07-2011, 02:09 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
He's not being blamed, but reality is reality. If you stuck Pronger out there against 3rd and 4th liners, would you not expect him to put up monster numbers?
Yes I would but I also wouldn't be complaining about it like some people here are. There is a reason that our 3rd pairing is the best in the NHL and also a reason why this team is able to weather the storm while Pronger is out and Mez is a big reason. Can you imagine a 3rd pair of Bart and Syvret playing behind a 2nd pairing of Carl and O'D? No thank you.

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01-07-2011, 02:16 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by The Inebriator View Post
I'm not so sure. Look at what Dan Hamhuis just signed for last offseason.

I take the +/- with a definite grain of salt but I don't really care about the stats. Just watching Mezsaros play its obvious that he has been a real important addition to this team and I think he's easily worth 3.5 / year. I'm not going to raise a stink over that
Hamhuis is a better defensive player than Meszaros, particularly when taking into account the last few years. It cannot be stressed enough how much Meszaros is being protected here.

Meszaros has a QUALCOMP of -0.044, which is 15th on the team out of 19 players that have played 20+. His QUALTEAM is +0.178 which is 5th on the team out of 19 players. So, he gets some of the weakest competition, paired with really strong teammates out there with him at the same time. The same story can be told for O'Donnell, who has finally seen his +/- begin to normalize a bit. Who knows, maybe Meszaros will prove he can hold up his play if we put him into tougher situations, but his statistics this year are significantly buoyed by the fact that he's been put into a situation in which he should succeed.

The fact of the matter is that we have 3 D in our top 6 that are a bit iffy when you set 'em out there alone. Coburn, Carle, and Meszaros all have skills that can do a lot of good for you, but limitations that are also present at the same time. There's a LOT of Coburn in Meszaros defensively, for example. If you watch him closely he's incredibly aggressive at times, and O'Donnell being a safety blanket that doesn't push up ice has been a big help to him. Just like Timonen giving up a lot of his offensive game has helped Coburn the last couple of years.

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01-07-2011, 02:19 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by The Inebriator View Post
I'm not so sure. Look at what Dan Hamhuis just signed for last offseason.

I take the +/- with a definite grain of salt but I don't really care about the stats. Just watching Mezsaros play its obvious that he has been a real important addition to this team and I think he's easily worth 3.5 / year. I'm not going to raise a stink over that
Sometimes the eye test is the best factor to go by. I think Mezsaros has played outstanding so far. He is doing what he is supposed to be doing, dominating on the 3rd pairing and stepping up with injuries occur. Also, it is important to note that because of Mez's play, (almost 20 minutes a game) the top 4's minutes have all been lowered and in theory going to keep them a lot more fresh come playoff time.

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01-07-2011, 02:19 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by CannonGoBoom View Post
Yes I would but I also wouldn't be complaining about it like some people here are. There is a reason that our 3rd pairing is the best in the NHL and also a reason why this team is able to weather the storm while Pronger is out and Mez is a big reason. Can you imagine a 3rd pair of Bart and Syvret playing behind a 2nd pairing of Carl and O'D? No thank you.
Well, but that's ignoring that the argument is that you could have brought in someone like Mark Eaton to be on the third pairing for 2.5M... and that's without getting into the length of Meszaros' deal.

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01-07-2011, 02:26 PM
  #35
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Sometimes the eye test is the best factor to go by.
That's literally never true.

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01-07-2011, 02:27 PM
  #36
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It isnt hate liek Jester has stated, far from it. Lydman would have been a nice addition as well and he has a shorter term and $ hit.

I think Gustafson or the finn dman can potentially replace Carle on the top pair next year. What do you think resident expert and hockeys future staff member Chris Schafer?

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01-07-2011, 02:30 PM
  #37
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Without looking at any stats and regardless of who he's been playing against, Meszaros has looked great this season. I do not mind paying him $4mil for the play he has been giving us. While his point totals aren't quite there, the PP as a whole has been bad, so I'm not too worried about that. Yeah, we have 3 defensemen making at least $4mil, but hasn't our defensive play reflected that? You get what you pay for, and our defense looks like we've invested well in it. Also, he's been playing on the top pairing with Pronger out and he's still looked pretty good. I think he could easily be our number 3 defenseman. So while he might be slightly overpaid, I don't mind giving the man an extra $500,000 or whatever he's overpaid by. This is one of the best Flyers teams I've ever seen (possibly behind 2003-04), so I'm not complaining about a slight overpayment to a damn good defenseman.

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01-07-2011, 02:33 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by RU Flyerfan View Post
Without looking at any stats and regardless of who he's been playing against, Meszaros has looked great this season. I do not mind paying him $4mil for the play he has been giving us. While his point totals aren't quite there, the PP as a whole has been bad, so I'm not too worried about that. Yeah, we have 3 defensemen making at least $4mil, but hasn't our defensive play reflected that? You get what you pay for, and our defense looks like we've invested well in it. Also, he's been playing on the top pairing with Pronger out and he's still looked pretty good. I think he could easily be our number 3 defenseman. So while he might be slightly overpaid, I don't mind giving the man an extra $500,000 or whatever he's overpaid by. This is one of the best Flyers teams I've ever seen (possibly behind 2003-04), so I'm not complaining about a slight overpayment to a damn good defenseman.
Carle and Coburn aren't exactly stiff competition for the no. 3 slot. Both have huge holes in their respective games.

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01-07-2011, 02:37 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Carle and Coburn aren't exactly stiff competition for the no. 3 slot. Both have huge holes in their respective games.
But they still have potential, especially Coburn to anchor a #1 pairing.
Take them away from their partner and it is a crap shoot sadly. I really hope somehow someway they start to develop quality dman in their system, though i wont hold my breath. With unlimited resources they should go hire the predators defensive coaches and scouts who have stocked their d pool very well.

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01-07-2011, 02:45 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by NWO View Post
But they still have potential, especially Coburn to anchor a #1 pairing.
Take them away from their partner and it is a crap shoot sadly. I really hope somehow someway they start to develop quality dman in their system, though i wont hold my breath. With unlimited resources they should go hire the predators defensive coaches and scouts who have stocked their d pool very well.
Coburn is infuriating to me because he played so well that 1st full season here, but has really regressed since then. He has the physical tools to do it, just hasn't really shown any growth between the ears and his offensive game has all but disappeared.

Carle is what he is... an offensive guy (though, really sucks at creating on the PP) with shotty defensive skills.

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01-07-2011, 02:51 PM
  #41
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Meszaros makes about 500,000 too much. People talk about how he wouldn't get the same deal today as he signed with Tampa. However, Tampa signed him to that deal which was above market value at the time. He is two years into that deal and is now worth the 4 million and isn't signed for as long.....so thanks Tampa.

Here is where I and many think Homer and his team are extremly good. Pro Scouting. Pro-scouting said that Tampa is underevaluating Meszaros and we should make a play for him. Homer makes the deal and it turns out the scouting was right. Meszaros had poor numbers on a bad team but still has excellent skills and his skillset works very well in Philly. Now when Carle is up, no worries.....we already have his replacement.

As for people saying we just should of signed player A or B. Well, the Flyers looked at the market and saw this deal and evaluated Meszaros ahead of the available D. I think that was the right call. They also evaluated and brought in a veteran presence in O'Donnell for a good price, which is exactly the type of 3rd pairing guy people think we should have got, WE DID! Meszaros is a top 4 defenceman. In fact he has the abilities to play in the top 2 with another very good defenceman and he doesn't make mistakes and will not look out of place (He did so in Ottawa with great success with Chara and Phillips).

I know the guys who disagree with Meszaros as a good trade will never change. Hell, those same folks will not even give Homer a win on the Pronger deal unless we win a Stanley Cup. Big deal. Any fan can tell you that Meszaros is playing great and is well worth a second round pick. His Salary fits under our cap and we are still able to ice one of the best forward groups in the league. So - what is the effing problem?

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01-07-2011, 02:51 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Coburn is infuriating to me because he played so well that 1st full season here, but has really regressed since then. He has the physical tools to do it, just hasn't really shown any growth between the ears and his offensive game has all but disappeared.

Carle is what he is... an offensive guy (though, really sucks at creating on the PP) with shotty defensive skills.
Coburn also had no pressure that last half of the year. The team sucked. Carle i do not consider offensive at all, though i know what you mean. He offers little offensively.

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01-07-2011, 03:38 PM
  #43
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I don't totally Disagree with most of jester's points, but I really am not sure we could get similar play from other options last summer for significantly less salary. Particularly Eaton. He had a few good years in Pitt but from what I've seen he's really not that close to Mez

Also not convinced that Hamhuis is that much better overall for an extra half million a more on a longer term.

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01-07-2011, 03:43 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Unfortunately for you, Meszaros is a 2-3-4 getting paid like a 2-3-4 and playing like a 2-3-4 in the role of a 4-5-6.

It's not a hard concept.

You want a dominant 3rd pairing? Then you pay a 2-3-4 to play a 4-5-6. Just because he's dominating lesser competition doesn't mean you overpaid him. You pay for that dominance. If you want a mediocre 3rd pairing then go ahead and throw $2m at some chump. We didn't want a mediocre 3rd pairing and, because of Meszaros, we didn't get a mediocre 3rd pairing.

You pay what you get for.

Of course he's overpaid right? He's only leading the NHL is +/-, putting up a respectable amount of points, playing solid defense no matter who he's playing against, stepping up and playing against tougher competition when injury situations arise, logging the most minutes on some nights and a hefty chunk of the minutes on others, and doing it all very quietly and under the radar.

That's called return for investment, but you have Holmgren hate shoved so far up your butt that you can't admit that he made the right call; that something is really working out. Instead everyone has to be overpaid, or making boneheaded plays, or not pulling his weight. If you want to hate the world then be my guest, but don't grasp at straws when arguing the logistics of whether a player performing extremely well is being "overpaid."

I stopped reading at 2-3-4 d man. What the hell is that?

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01-07-2011, 04:15 PM
  #45
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I stopped reading at 2-3-4 d man. What the hell is that?
It's his quaint way of trying to sneak the idea of Mes being a true #2 into our discussion when he's never really played at a level above a #4, even against the dregs of the other team he's generally been up against.

Mes is an offensive d-men. He plays against the very worst players on opposing teams. He has 14 points, including plenty of PP time. He makes 4M dollars per year.

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01-07-2011, 05:06 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
BTW, lets clear up this "you have to pay that money to someone" approach that Shafer is outlining. Just running down capgeek.

Pens - 2 D 4+
Boston - 1 D 4+
Detroit - 2 D 4+
Calgary - 2 D 4+
Vancouver - 2 D 4+
Chicago - 2 D 4+
SJ - 1 D 4+
Minny - 1 D 4+
Sens - 1 D 4+
Caps - 2 D 4+
Flyers - 3 D 4+
Devs - 1 D 4+
Habs - 2 D 4+
Leafs - 3 D 4+
Ducks - 1 D 4+
Kings - 0
Sabres - 0
Columbus - 0
Dallas - 0
Carolina - 1 D 4+
Nashville - 1 D 4+
Florida - 1 D 4+
TB - 0 D 4+
PHX - 1 D 4+
Oilers - 2 D 4+
STL - 1 D 4+
Avs - 1 D 4+
ATL - 1 D 4+
NYI - 1 D 4+

So, assuming I just tallied that correct, you have 36 D in the NHL getting 4+M cap hits. So, lets just nip it in the bud that the going rate for a 4-5-6 (what Meszaros is right now) is in the ballpark for him. This is without getting into the fact that a number of those contracts are viewed as horrible deals. There is NO WAY Meszaros is worthy of his contract... and the fact of the matter is that he's never played to the level of that contract. This is exacerbated by the fact that the contract market has changed considerably since he signed the deal, with teams paying far more attention to getting lowered cap hits on their roster as their respective cap situations have solidified with longer deals littered here and there.

You can argue that Meszaros has been a good addition to this team... but if he were an UFA tomorrow, he almost certainly does not sign the deal he's currently playing under. Probably signs for (at least) a million less.... especially coming off the years he had in TB. While his +/- is impressive for this club, his lack of production on the PP is quite notable given that he gets minutes there. It also has to be accounted for that he's playing among the easiest shifts on the entire team.
I count 28 of those teams that would trade their defenses for the Flyers even up and walk away laughing at their good fortune.

So maybe they should have paid more... production costs and Mez is producing.

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01-07-2011, 05:37 PM
  #47
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So maybe they should have paid more... production costs and Mez is producing.
In this case, $285,700 per point.

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01-07-2011, 06:03 PM
  #48
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Anybody who can't see how much Mez has been protected has definitely "been eating paint chips."

That being said, it's at least interesting to me that since Pronger has gone out, the "problem pairing" has definitely been Kimmo-Coburn and not Mez-Carle.

I personally think that based on half the season so far, he deserves to be in the top-4 ahead of Carle and/or Coburn.

Whether can he hold it down there will be interesting, I have to say, he's struck me as being better defensively than I thought he would be.

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01-07-2011, 06:27 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
Anybody who can't see how much Mez has been protected has definitely "been eating paint chips."

That being said, it's at least interesting to me that since Pronger has gone out, the "problem pairing" has definitely been Kimmo-Coburn and not Mez-Carle.

I personally think that based on half the season so far, he deserves to be in the top-4 ahead of Carle and/or Coburn.

Whether can he hold it down there will be interesting, I have to say, he's struck me as being better defensively than I thought he would be.
I blame this on Kimmo's hip being messed up.

Essentially, we're screwed.

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01-07-2011, 06:45 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
BTW, lets clear up this "you have to pay that money to someone" approach that Shafer is outlining. Just running down capgeek.

Pens - 2 D 4+
Boston - 1 D 4+
Detroit - 2 D 4+
Calgary - 2 D 4+
Vancouver - 2 D 4+
Chicago - 2 D 4+
SJ - 1 D 4+
Minny - 1 D 4+
Sens - 1 D 4+
Caps - 2 D 4+
Flyers - 3 D 4+
Devs - 1 D 4+
Habs - 2 D 4+
Leafs - 3 D 4+
Ducks - 1 D 4+
Kings - 0
Sabres - 0
Columbus - 0
Dallas - 0
Carolina - 1 D 4+
Nashville - 1 D 4+
Florida - 1 D 4+
TB - 0 D 4+
PHX - 1 D 4+
Oilers - 2 D 4+
STL - 1 D 4+
Avs - 1 D 4+
ATL - 1 D 4+
NYI - 1 D 4+

So, assuming I just tallied that correct, you have 36 D in the NHL getting 4+M cap hits. So, lets just nip it in the bud that the going rate for a 4-5-6 (what Meszaros is right now) is in the ballpark for him. This is without getting into the fact that a number of those contracts are viewed as horrible deals. There is NO WAY Meszaros is worthy of his contract... and the fact of the matter is that he's never played to the level of that contract. This is exacerbated by the fact that the contract market has changed considerably since he signed the deal, with teams paying far more attention to getting lowered cap hits on their roster as their respective cap situations have solidified with longer deals littered here and there.

You can argue that Meszaros has been a good addition to this team... but if he were an UFA tomorrow, he almost certainly does not sign the deal he's currently playing under. Probably signs for (at least) a million less.... especially coming off the years he had in TB. While his +/- is impressive for this club, his lack of production on the PP is quite notable given that he gets minutes there. It also has to be accounted for that he's playing among the easiest shifts on the entire team.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Here's the reality.

Everyone thinks Meszaros is overpaid because he's playing on the "third pairing." He's had games where his pairing has played the most minutes and he's stepped up in the absence of Pronger, but I'll just ignore that simple fact for all of your sake for now.

The truth is, if you wanted to get an average 3rd pairing player for $1m-$2m, fine. You also have to realize that such a player would not be nearly as good as Meszaros is doing against lesser competition.

We're not paying Meszaros to be an average 3rd pairing defenseman. We're paying him to be a dominant 3rd pairing defenseman; to make our defense that much deeper and harder to much up against regardless of who is on the ice.

So complaining about Meszaros' salary per his production is akin to asking for another average 3rd pairing defenseman like Alberts, Jones, Kukkonen, Krajicek or any number of average to terrible guys we've had on the 3rd pairing and expecting them to be as successful in the role that Meszaros is filling as Meszaros.


Meszaros gets paid to be a dominant 3rd pairing defenseman, and honestly, I doubt you'll find a better 3rd pairing defenseman in the NHL. Why is that? Well most of it is because he should be playing a lot higher than the 3rd pairing.

But this is yet another mark that the great "voices of reason" on this Flyers' board have missed; fairly high and wide I might add. You completely Jeff Carter'd the logic on this one.
C'mon buddy, Meszaros is being paid better than many first pairing Ds, and the vast majority of second paring d's.

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