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True value/impact of a top 10 pick in your lineup today

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Old
01-18-2011, 11:40 PM
  #1
Alberta_OReilly_Fan
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True value/impact of a top 10 pick in your lineup today

the following study is a real look at just what drafting in the top 10 actually means for teams now. Everyone says that the only way to build a winner is to get high draft picks and to keep them. So lets see how the top 10 picks from 1999-2008 actually help their teams win

Point 1/ Detroit is the only team with no top 10 picks from this 10 year study, and they are also the most successful team during the decade.

Point 2/ Pittsburg and Chicago both won cups led by picks they drafted during this run... proving if you draft great then you can win

Point 3/ 18 picks or 18% of top 10 picks drafted during this study had little or no impact for their teams in the NHL and most are completely out of the NHL picture at this time. proving that you got an almsot 1 in 5 chance of walking away with nothing for your pick

Point 4/ an additional 34 picks are no longer with the team that drafted them... proving that by the time a drafted player is around 28 years old the odds he is still with your team is less then 50%

Point 5/ no team has more then 5 picks from these 10 years with their team now. Columbus and Minnesota both have 5 and with all due respect to these two teams, they are both likely to miss the playoffs this year. Even with tremendous success in the draft and managing to add 5 top picks to your team in a 10 year period still can leave you with a sucky team. Proving, good drafting helps... bad drafting doesnt, and just because a pick is top 10 doesnt mean it will be good. Detroit had no top 10 picks and is a favorite to win another cup. They draft good wherever they draft. Columbus drafts top 10 almost every year but never makes the playoffs because they draft bad no matter where they draft. Its your skill at drafting that determins if you can build through the draft... not the position you draft in.

Point 6/ Obviously first overall picks usually work out. During my study I see the following 14 impact franchise players were drafted... Eric Staal, Johnathon Towes, Patrick Kane, Rick Nash, Drew Doughty, Ilya Kovalchuck, Marian Gaborik, Evengny Malkin, Sydney Crosby, Dany Heatley, Steven Stamkos, Daniel Sedin, Henrick Sedin, and Alexander Ovechkin. 7 went first overall. only 7 of the next 90 picks were of a true franchise impact quality.

my analysis
***********
if you have a top 10 pick that isnt number 1 you have less then 10% chance of getting a player better then Bobby Ryan or Nathan Horton or Jason Spezza. You have around 20% chance of drafting someone that will never play fro you. You have around 20% chance of drafting someone you will give up on and trade away as a disappointment before he is 25. You arent going to end up with more then 2-3 picks that are still with your team 5 years later even if you totally totally totally suck like Pittsburg did. They are pretty much the one and only example of a team that was able to draft lottery picks more then 3 years in a row. No other team was able to stay sucky enough to do it, even though around 6-7 teams really sucked a lot during the years of my study. its far more likely to be an Atlanta, Columbus, Phoenix, Islanders, Florida, Minnesota and accomplish absolutely nothing wtih your top 10 picks then it is to be Pittsburg and manage to luck into Crosby

My study doesnt take into account that good teams manage to draft players late in the first round or second round... like my Bruins... Krecji/Lucic/Bergeron are currently 3 of our top 6 forwards and all were second round picks. Im not being radical and saying that drafting 'good' doesnt help a team win. But making good ufa signings also helps a team win. Making good trades help a team win. Just doing a good job building your team with all the option that are available is what helps a team win.

religious fanatical belief in high draft picks = success is a complete falsehood. a top 10 pick is not a golden ticket to guaranteed success. 50/50 unless the pick is a top number 1 pick, it will be as likely to be a bust as it will to help at all.

if you spend 4 mill on an ufa signing, your odds of getting a good player that will help you during the length of his contract is at least 80% and probably much higher. if you draft an 18 year old kid and keep him around for 7 years until he is eligible for his ufa, you are lucky to get even 4 decent seasons out of him, and if you manage to get any decent seasons then you will be paying him at least 4 mill per year.

on my list of guys that actually have been franchise players... everyone of them went over 4 mill per year on their second contract {cept the Sedins i guess who sort of sucked for their first 5-6 years}

to be honest... if you pay anyone 6-7 mill like nash and gaborik and kovalchuck and heatley make, then you deserve to expect a franchise player for that money... whether you drafted the guy or signed him as an ufa.

The Following is a breakdown of where the top 10 picks of these 10 years are playing now... you can see how your team benefits or doesnt from the top picks they have in their own lineup
************************************************** ********


1999 Patrick Stefan 1st {bust}
Pavel Brendl 4th {bust}
Brian Finley 6th {out of hockey}
Kris Beech 7th {bus}
Bradislav Mezei 10th {bust}
2000 Lars Jonsson 7th {bust}
Nikita Alexeev 8th {bust}
Brent Krahn 9th {bust}
Mikail Yakubov {bust}
2001 Dan Blackburn 10th {out of hockey} drafted by Rangers
Stanislav Chistov 5th {bust} drafted by Anaheim
Alexander Svitov 3rd {bust} drafted by Tampa
2002 Petr Taticek 9th {bust} drafted by Florida
2004 Aldo Montoya 6th {bust from Ny Rangers}
2005 Luc Bourdon 10th {deceased}
2007 Zach Hamil 7th {slow progress}
2007 Tomas Hickey 4th {slow progress}
2007 Kyle Turris 3rd {slow progress}


Anaheim
2002 Jeoffry Lupal 7th {been shipped around}
2005 Bobby Ryan 2nd

Atlanta
2004 Andrew Ladd 4th {trade after Carolina drafted}
2004 Boris Clabik 10th {recently cleared waivers}
2008 Zach Bogosian 3rd

Boston
2003 Nathan Horton 3rd {trade from florida}
2004 Blake Wheeler 5th {ufa signing from pheonix}

Buffalo
1999 Tim Connolly 5th {trade from Islanders}
2003 Tomas Vanek 5th


Calgary
2002 Jay Bouwmeister 3rd {free agent signing out of Florida}

Carolina
2001 Tuumu Ruuto 9th {trade acquistion from chicago}
2002 Joni Pitkanen 4th {trade after starting in Philadelphia}
2003 Eric Staal 2nd

Chicago
2005 Jack Skille 7th {still struggling to be a regular}
2006 johnathon toews 3rd
2007 Patrick Kane 1st

Colorado
2006 Peter Muller 8th

Columbus
2000 Rostislav Klesla 4th
2002 Rick Nash 1st
2006 Derick Brassard 6th
2007 Jacub Voracek 7th
2008 Nikita Filatov 6th

Dallas
2002 Kari Lehtonen 2nd {trade from Atlanta}

Edmonton
2002 Ryan Whitney 5th {trade after being drafted by Pittsburg}\
2004 Ladislav Smid 9th {trade from anaheim}
2005 Gilbert Brule 6th {washed out of columbus}
2007 Sam Gagne 6th

Florida
2001 Stephen Weiss 4th
2004 Rostislav Olesz 7th
2006 Michael Frolik 10th
2007 Keaton Elerby 10th

Los Angeles
2005 Jack Johnson 3rd {bounced around a bit after carolina draft}
2008 Drew Doughty 2nd

Minnesota
2001 Mikko Koivu 6th
2002 Eric Nystrom 10th (UFA from calgary}
2002 Pierre Marc Bouchard 8th
2004 Cam Barker 3rd {trade from chicago}
2006 James Sheppard 9th

Montreal
2003 Andrei Kostitsyn 10th
2004 Alexandre Picard 8th {bounced around after draft by columbus}
2005 Benoit Pouliot 4th {washed out of Minnesota}
2005 Carey Price 5th

Nashville
2003 Ryan Suter 7th
2008 Colin Wilson 7th

New Jersey
2001 Ilya Kovalchuk 1st {trade acquistion from atlanta}

NY Islanders
2000 Rick Dipetro 1st
2006 Kyle Okposo 7th
2008 Josh Bailey 9th

New York Rangers
2000 Marian Gaborik 3rd {abandoned minnesota for ufa}

Ottawa
2001 Jason Spezza 2nd
2001 Pascal leclaire 8th {trade acquistion from columbus}
2003 Milan Michalek 6th {trade from san jose}
2005 Brian Lee 9th {waiver wire reject}

Pheonix
1999 Taylor Pyatt 8th {bounced around after Buffalo gave up on him}
2002 Scottie Upshaw 6th {been shipped around after starting in nashville}
2008 Mikkel Boedker 8th

Philadelphia
2000 Scott Hartnall 6th {from Nashville}
2003 Nikolai Zherdev 4th {ufa signing after bust}
2003 Braydon Coburn 8th {trade from atlanta}
2007 James Van Riemsdyk

Pittsburg
2003 Marc Andre Fleury 1st
2004 Evgeni Makin 2nd
2005 Sidney Crosby 1st
2006 Jordan Staal 2nd

San Jose
2000 Dany Heatley 2nd {traded twice after draft by atlanta}
2005 David Setoguchi 8th {had a decent season}
2007 Logun Courutre 9th

St Louis
2006 Eric Johnson 1st
2008 Alex Pietrangelo 4th

Tampa
2008 Steven Stamkos 1st

Toronto
2003 Dion Phaneuf 9th {trade from Calgary}
2006 Phil Kessel 5th {trade from boston}
2008 Luke Schenn 5th

Vancouver
1999 Daniel Sedin 2nd
Henrik Sedin 3rd
2000 Raffi Torres 5th {bounced around from islanders}
2008 Cody Hodgson 1oth

Washington
2004 Alexander Ovechkin 1st
2005 Nicklas Backstrom 4th
2006 Karl Alzner 5th

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01-18-2011, 11:54 PM
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I would say that Price's impact is pretty substantial.

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01-18-2011, 11:56 PM
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Alberta_OReilly_Fan
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im anticipating someone will tell me my study means nothing cause i dont account for what teams get when they trade first round picks... but that is actually the point of my entire study here

the posters on this site... and media too in the real world... and even many gms i think, all believe now that the only way to success is to have top picks leading your team.

they probably think this because pittsburg and chicago happened to win the last 2 cups with top picks.

yes i know

but many many many teams get top picks and never win the cup. pittsburg got lucky and drafted the best player the game has seen since lemieux/gretzky retired. there is only 1 crosby. they also happened to draft whitney and fleury and malkin and staal in back to back to back to back to back years. no other team has any type of record to compare to this.

chicago meanwhile had a couple ufa signings that probably helped as much as their two top picks did. they also broke the nhl rules by basically overspending around 15% cap space to get a single season out of a super loaded lineup. im not sure that winning a cup when you have 15% more spending being done then anyone else, is actually a way most teams would want to pattern themselves after to try to win too.

chicago won... no one can take that away from them... but having to give away versteeg, byfuglin, ladd, and 3-4 other key depth pieces was a very very steep price to pay and they are in a very realistic danger of missing the playoffs this year.

other teams that won a cup led by draft picks {anaheim. carolina, tampa] had very short runs at the top and missed the playoffs the next year too.

I dont deny that having a top number 1 pick is a good thing... and most number 2s are pretty decent too... but teams that think they will be powerhouses every year after getting one or two of these guys drafted are just dreaming.

all this parinoia about trading a pick and regretting it forever is crazy. you will regret trading a pick if you make a bad trade. if you trade a pick for Tom Kurvers and the pick turns into Scott Nidermayer then you will regret it. You always regret making bad trades.

but if you trade a pick that is a bust and the guy you trade for turns out to be dustin byfuglin, then you dont regret it. Making good trades even if they involve draft picks are what you never regret.

sometimes its hard to tell if you should regret trading away picks/prospects or not. Calgary moved Bret Hull to win a cup. Hull went on to be one of the top 10 scorers in NHL history. Maybe Flame fans would have enjoyed him in Calgary more then the cup? I cant say... its not always 100% clear cut.

It is however very very very possible to trade a top 10 pick and actually win the trade. most top 10 picks are going to be second liners at best... if you trade one for a second liner now, there is at least a 50-50 chance you will break even on the trade.

im not saying to trade number 1 or number 2 picks... but in most years, you can safely trade away a 9 or a 10 pick for a rental and end up being ok. getting value for the pick.

specially if you resign the rental. good ufa signings are just as valuable as good drafting is.

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01-18-2011, 11:57 PM
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Nice work.

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01-18-2011, 11:59 PM
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Alberta_OReilly_Fan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asterix View Post
I would say that Price's impact is pretty substantial.
not ready to put him in the hall of fame yet... but he certainly has played a hell of a lot better this year then the last 2. goalies can sometimes really impress the hell out of you for 2-3 years without actually winning anything then go poof and disappear. so i will be hesitant to ever call a young goalie a superstud until he wins a few big big big games on his own.

id be more inclined to give Fleury a nod as the elite goalie drafted over this 10 years... but he has had ups and downs and ups and downs and has a damn good team in front of him most the time.

i really like to see 3-4 years in row from a goalie where every one asked ranks the guy top 5 in the NHL before i say he is a legitimate hall of fame impact guy.

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01-19-2011, 12:54 AM
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Gardner McKay
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nvm you got him.

Very nicely done.

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01-19-2011, 01:30 AM
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Im taking all of this as a way to say hey everyone on HF Boards lets start to temper our views on TOP 10 picks as surefire hockey gods that warrant each teams superstar in return to pry away from any given team....

WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY NEEDED...youd think everyone on this board has a crystal ball

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01-19-2011, 01:44 AM
  #8
Alberta_OReilly_Fan
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for the record... what got me thinking about this post was listening to alot of toronto sports talk radio this year.

today on the bill watters show, the hosts were going on and on how vancouver built their team traditionally through the draft. but its not true.

now vancouver hasnt won anything yet... but lets say they are a great team anyhow. they do got the sedins that were picked up as high picks. the sedins today are considered great players and last year were great players too. The year before that i made some proposals here to trade them and most posters told me how crappy they were and how they were not worth 6 mill a year and how their team would have zero use for the bums.

the sedins actually became eligible for ufa before they became true impact players for vancouver. vancouver actually had to make a winning bid over toronto to keep the sedins for this year's run.

yes, they drafted them... but they never did deliver an impact quality return during their early years.

louongo is the other biggest star on vancouver... and he was picked up in a trade. vancouver dealt away high picks/prospects to get louongo.

kessler was a high pick.. but he agreed to a rfa deal with philadelphia. vancouver almost lost him because they felt he was sort of a bust at the time. ultmiately they matched the deal, but there was alot of rumors at the time they should let him walk.

on defense, hamhus and ballard are obviously acquistions this offseason... when healthy salo came from ottawa. Bieska is home grown but not a high end pick. Erhoff was a contract dump. 5/6 of their defense didnt rely on using high picks at all.

up front, samuelsson/malhtora/torres are all ufa signings the last 2 years. thats 3 of the top 9 forwards. and burrows was kind of one of those once in a million type finds out of the echl.

Raymond/Kessler/the twins/and the swede on the blueline are like the only real draft pick guys that are playing major roles in Vancouvers run at the top.

and yet according to Leaf Media/fan hysteria I guess that this Canuck example is an example of how to build through the draft???

now, not all leaf fans would feel this way of course... but almost all of them freak out over giving up two lottery picks for kessel.

they say kessel isnt a proven 40 goal scorer. but kessel did score 40 in his last year in boston in 82 games played. if you count his 72 regular season games and his 10 playoff games it is the equivlent of a full 82 game regular regular season. regular seasons are meant to have up to 82 games in them

to be honest, playoff goals always count MORE then regular season goals. All players get MORE credit for playoff goals then regular season goals anyhow.

so, i might stretch a point to call kessel a 'proven' 40 goal scorer, but logic is on my side when i do so.

you can tell me that kessel doesnt stay healthy for 82 games, and i will agree... but you cant tell me he hasnt scored 40 goals in an 82 game stretch of real NHL hockey in one single season.

and that is what we are arguing about anyhow right... how good kessel is? is he worth 2 top picks?

we arent sure how good seguin will be... and he might be better then kessel. Kessel is a proven sniper. Even when he battles cancer and mono, he still pops in goals at an astonding pace. he was used as a third liner in boston most the time... never got top pp icetime... and he still managed a 40 goal season. he came off a serious injury in his one season in toronto and played basically without linemates and still scored on pace for 40.

i know he has huge droughs of 10-15 games where he completely sucks. he seems to lack something in his competitive makeup to avoid this... or maybe hes too weak/out of shape... im unsure...

but theres no denying he scores tons and tons of goals without much help/or icetime despite all the negatives you can say about him.

and he was a top pick. what i dont get from toronto fans and their media is why dot hey automatically assume if they had picked this past year/and this upcoming year, that the picks would be any better for them then Kessel/Phaneuf/Scheen already are? Phaneuf was widely considered one of the top 5 best young players in the game a couple three years ago... and now he has fallen off the face of the earth... but he was a legit high quality super good pick for a couple years.

not all top 10 picks turn out to be super hall of fame franchise talents that lead your team to playoff success. Toronto already has 3 picks from the top 10 in recent years in their lineup, and they still finished second worst last year and are bottom 5 this year.

maybe seguin/2011 pick/phaneuf/schenn would possibly get the team further ahead 2-3 years from now then a team with kessel would... but schenn is already only 4 years away from ufa eligibility after this season.

you get a limited time of 'owning' your picks to actually succeed before the picks either break your bank on contract extensions... or flunk out... or simply leave for greener fields.

i cant say for certain kessel was a good trade to make, since he will be eligible for ufa before the leafs likely will have a chance at winning anything. i think its possible that the leaf media market is going to hurt his feelings cause he seems a sensitive type. chances are, it wasnt a good move in this particular case to give up picks for someone with kessels mental makeup...

but, what my real though is... that it is just so much blind faith to automatically think that every new top 10 pick is going to be so freaking fantastic... when about half the old ones turn out to be guys like phaneuf and kessel that you have so many complaints about.

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01-19-2011, 02:27 AM
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it seems to me if you don't have multiple top 5 picks rebuilding through the draft isn't as easy as many people like to make it out to be...

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01-19-2011, 03:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunatik View Post
it seems to me if you don't have multiple top 5 picks rebuilding through the draft isn't as easy as many people like to make it out to be...
once upon a time edmonton got to enter the NHL with gretzky. they had insider knowledge how good messier was, and redrafted him. they managed to find coffee and kurri and fuhr in the draft the next couple years.

most outsiders saw this as it developed and thought to themselves, what a hell of a good way to build a cup winning dynasty team.

in 30 years since then, not one single team has ever managed to duplicate this level of successful drafting in such a short period of time.

of course, if anyone could do it... they sure should do it. getting gretzky and messier and coffee and kurri and fuhr on the same team is a very very very smart thing to do.

getting lemieux and jagr on the same team was also a very smart thing to do.

if lightning strikes, and you do manage to have some great young draft picks all pile up on your club at one time... then its always very nice.

Boston had a chance at some top picks after they dealt Wesley for three picks from carolina and had our bottom drop out on us to finish last overall back in 2006.

in the span of 3 years we got to draft Mclaren and Aitkens and Thornton and Samsonov. A couple years later both Boynton and Zutlek {sp} reentered the draft and we smartly drafted both them too. they had both been ranked as top 20 guys in that 97 draft.

we had 6 top drafted picks all available to us from one period of 3 draft years... but even though Thornton is likely having a HOF career, we never did become the next Oilers or Penguins. Samsonov was never more then a talented small underachiever. McLaren derailed his career with some sort of off-ice personal problem and had to be shipped out of town. Boynton had some spirit but was shakey as more then a 4 dman. the other 2 guys were complete busts.

When Mad Mike was in charge of the Islanders, he sometimes had 3 picks in the first round... like a couple times he did that... i think he picked first round something like 10 times in one 5 year period

of course he traded away most the kids within 3-4 seasons, but even if he didnt it is tough to say that the choices he made could have formed into any sort of dynasty.

has louongo ever been a playoff goalie? would diepietro have become one? Chara was obviously a great dman... and Redden had a few years on top.

there was some good picks made... but if they had all been kept, then i guess it would have been harder to continue sucking. some guys were picked with picks that were acquired by trading other guys.

it isnt easy to continue sucking and get all your picks lined up

i remember in atlanta, how impressed i was when they drafted lehtonen and colborne and kovalchuck and heatley. it appeared they had 2 legit super talents up front, a stud for the blueline, and the highest reguarded prospect goalie of all time to build a monster team around

then before you knew it lehtonen was derailed with injuries... colborne got sacraficed for a run at the playoffs. heatley did that heatley thing... got traded for hossa who left for ufa...

and then kovalchuk scored a ton of highlight goals until he got to ufa, but never helped the team actually get close to the promised land.

it seemed like a real good core of kids to build around... but it fizzled right before out eyes.

it takes more then just drafting 3-4-5 talented young kids to become a winner. you need the coaching... the vet leadership... a team committed to defense play and systems and hard work

having a crosby or toews obviously is a wonderful thing and can help tons... but gretzky never won a cup after he left edmonton. the greatest player of all time couldnt win by himself without a great support system around him.

no 1 or 2 or even 3 or 4 hotshot super talent kids can win by themselves either without a total package support setup around them

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01-19-2011, 03:15 AM
  #11
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what colborne played for the thrashers?

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01-19-2011, 03:36 AM
  #12
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my interpretation: tanking doesnt help unless you're pittsburgh. Being bad gives you a better chance at a good player than being good.


amirite?

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01-19-2011, 04:24 AM
  #13
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one team that astonishes me with their lack of success is Atlanta... they have had 2 first overall picks, 2 second overall picks, a third overall pick and a 4th overall pick... 6 top 5 picks for a team that has only participated in 12 drafts to date... they also have had 3 more top 10 picks... and have only had 1 season in their history that they drafted lower than 16th (they traded their 1st and 2nd picks that year)

they are the #1 reason why tring to build through the draft scares me

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01-19-2011, 05:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunatik View Post
one team that astonishes me with their lack of success is Atlanta... they have had 2 first overall picks, 2 second overall picks, a third overall pick and a 4th overall pick... 6 top 5 picks for a team that has only participated in 12 drafts to date... they also have had 3 more top 10 picks... and have only had 1 season in their history that they drafted lower than 16th (they traded their 1st and 2nd picks that year)

they are the #1 reason why tring to build through the draft scares me
Highly unlikely that your going to draft well if you scouts are horrible. But on the positive side of things, even a horrible scout is going to draft well by sheer odds of things.

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01-19-2011, 10:37 AM
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Phoenix has Michal Rozsival and Viktor Tikhonov to show for Peter Mueller(8th) and Blake Wheeler(5th). Turris(3rd) is starting to come around, Boedker(8th) has been the best player on his AHL team, and is now back up in the NHL. OEL(6th) is young and ha tremendous potential.

That's about all we've got for top ten picks in Phoenix.

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01-19-2011, 12:04 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunatik View Post
one team that astonishes me with their lack of success is Atlanta... they have had 2 first overall picks, 2 second overall picks, a third overall pick and a 4th overall pick... 6 top 5 picks for a team that has only participated in 12 drafts to date... they also have had 3 more top 10 picks... and have only had 1 season in their history that they drafted lower than 16th (they traded their 1st and 2nd picks that year)

they are the #1 reason why tring to build through the draft scares me
Lunatik, there is actually a simple explanation for that.

Atlanta never spent to the cap or ceiling to surround their prospect and top end talent with players.

Same as Florida, Phoenix and Columbus.

Now look at the teams that did; Chicago, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Add in Washington as well.

So, teams like Calgary, Toronto, Boston and LA who have high draft picks can build around them and spend to the maximum to ensure they have a strong support cast while their contracts are cost-effective.

If Boston was to trade the Toronto 1st to Calgary in a package for Iginla, you can bet that Calgary would surround the two top ten picks from this year with a solid group and spend the money to do so.

High draft picks on teams with deep pockets willing to spend = perrenial playoff contenders.

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01-19-2011, 12:14 PM
  #17
CF Punk
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In Dan Blackburn's defense...the dude was good and would have gotten better had he not had that fluke injury.

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01-19-2011, 12:22 PM
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Crappy management, coaching, and player development staff will screw the pooch no matter how high they draft.

Good management, coaching, and player development staff will succeed no matter how low they draft.

You give teams like the Islanders, Florida, Columbus extra picks every year and they'll still be terrible (note the management has changed for all of these franchises so this applies to past regimes).

You give Detroit even just a couple top 10 picks and they'd develop a star every time.

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01-19-2011, 12:23 PM
  #19
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The Picard playing for Montreal and the Picard drafted 8th overall are different players.

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01-19-2011, 12:28 PM
  #20
Kevin27nyi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alberta_OReilly_Fan View Post
NY Islanders
2000 Rick Dipetro 1st
2006 Kyle Okposo 7th
2008 Josh Bailey 9th
tavares?

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01-19-2011, 12:32 PM
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trentmccleary
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The average draft will typically have an average of 2 elite players at the top... in good years that might mean 3 elite players and bad years might only mean 1. But that's a rough average I see looking at the results of previous drafts. The difference in value in most years between the top few picks and the rest of the top-10 can be quite drastic.

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01-19-2011, 12:35 PM
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Chicago doesn't win a cup without Patrick Kane (and perhaps Keith and others)
Pittsburgh doesn't win a cup without Sydney Crosby (and perhaps Malkin and Fleury)
Washington has no chance to win a cup without Ovechkin.

There are loads of draft busts of that there is no doubt, loads in every round and the key thing is to pick the right players of that there is no doubt but drafting high increases your chances of getting better players or at the least having ammunition to trade with at a later date.

Other factors, teams with very good to dominant players simply do not make them available unless they have a big defect, thus free agency is not a great option other than to fill out a lineup.

The salary cap is another consideration. Drafting a young guy you get them on the cheap for a few years before you have to pay them.

Having multiple top 10 picks over a series of years can insulate you against a bust.

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01-19-2011, 12:37 PM
  #23
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Interesting study. Good work.

A lot of what I take from that is that drafting high isn't the only way to have success. You can draft high but if the team doesn't make other keys moves such as signings, trades or properly developing players the team probably won't succeed. And if your going to be a bad team be a really bad team and get those top 1-3 draft picks to draft a franchise or star player.

Like Tampa Bay who drafted Vinny and went on to win a Stanley Cup but also made key acquisitions like Dave Anderychuk, St. Louis, Brad Richards.
Like Pittsburgh did with Malkin and Crosby but also made key acquisitions such as Gonchar and Kunitz
Like Carolina did in getting Eric Stall and surrounding him with Brindamour, Cullen, Cole and an emerging star goalie in Ward
Like Chicago did in getting Kane but also making one-sided trades such as the Versteeg and Sharp deals. And a key free agent deal in Brian Campbell (who yes is overpaid but he certainly helped them win the cup).

On the other side of it is teams like:
Atlanta who drafted Kovalchuk and Heatley but failed to build a good supporting cast around them
Colombus who drafted Nash but are limited by a self-imposed cap, and haven't had another difference maker on the team to make them a good team
Islanders who drafted Luongo but traded him for peanuts, drafted Speeza then traded him and Chara for Yashin and also made so many other organizational mistakes that I could write a Masters Degree Thesis on them as an example of how not to run a business.

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01-19-2011, 01:02 PM
  #24
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Florida's problem has been inept ownership and management. The previous owner bought into the idea that Mike Keenan was this hockey savior and it turns out he was the worst thing for the franchise yet. That moron will always be known for making one of (if not the) worst trade in the history of the NHL with the Luongo deal. He was also the reason Florida drafted both Nathan Horton and Anthony Stewart. Dudley as GM also made some bad decisions by trading down from the #1 picks in 2002 and 2003...they could've had Staal and still had Bouwmeester.

New owner and especially hiring a good GM like Tallon will probably see their fortunes start to turn around in this new decade.

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01-19-2011, 01:17 PM
  #25
third man in
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It doesn't matter how high you draft though it helps to have higher picks. It's drafting well consistently year by year that makes the biggest difference.

Also not signing horrible team crippling UFA's.

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish."
--Billy Beane

I know different sport by I think it applies to hockey.

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