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01-29-2011, 01:16 PM
  #201
txpd
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Originally Posted by Goatlender View Post
Not if they can't go anywhere in the playoffs. Also, 3 years of being in the playoffs after a 4 year drought is hardly perennial.

I guess Blues were one of the greatest perennial contenders ever since they made the playoffs for 30 straight years or so. And Calgary was a perennial contender up until last year.
Flyers? You tell me. How many seasons of the last 30 have they not been a contender? Vancouver? Were they a contender last season? Are they this season?

What are we arguing here? About the word perennial or the word contender?

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01-29-2011, 01:21 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Sure, the Blues and Flames were perennial contenders. You're fooling yourself if you don't think that any team that makes the playoffs can't get hot and make a run. Look at Montreal and Philly last year.

And yes, 3 consecutive years in the playoffs with no foreseeable end to that streak is perennial.
If that's where you set the bar then there's no argument to be had. By that logic there's

Somehow Blues managed to stay 30 years without getting hot. Flames had 4 consecutive flameouts in the first round. I don't consider a team being a legitimate cup contender if their core has not once gone deep in the playoffs. Once they manage to get "hot" enough to at least get to a conference final, then yeah, I'd consider them a contender. So far they've only once managed to get "hot" against a woefully inferior opponent in NYR they almost gave away the series to.

Right now I see Detroit, Philly and Pittsburgh as legitimate contenders, with Chicago, Vancouver and Boston not being on quite the same level but having better chances than us, then us about on the level with Dallas, Anaheim and Montreal. As far as there being "no forseeable end", they're just 7 points in the playoffs. Another losing streak, which isn't inconceivable, could put them fighting just for a playoff spot. I wouldn't bet on them missing the playoffs this year, but it's far from set in stone if they can't start beating at least half-decent opponents again.

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01-29-2011, 01:32 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by Goatlender View Post
Right now I see Detroit, Philly and Pittsburgh as legitimate contenders.
Thats it? 3 teams? Then its equally legit that no legit contender even makes the finals.

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01-29-2011, 01:54 PM
  #204
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Goatlender is a troll and cleary doesnt know much about hockey.

If you want to talk contenders lets look at what the people who do this for a living say. Vegas odds have no bias or Homer panic

ODDS TO WIN THE 2011 NHL STANLEY CUP FINALS
Team Open Current
Pittsburgh 6/1 9/2
Vancouver 12/1 5/1
Philadelphia 12/1 11/2
Washington 6/1 8/1
Detroit 8/1 8/1
Boston 20/1 14/1
Dallas 60/1 15/1
Chicago 5/1 18/1
San Jose 8/1 20/1
Tampa Bay 45/1 20/1
Phoenix 35/1 25/1
Los Angeles 15/1 25/1
Montreal 30/1 25/1
Nashville 40/1 30/1
Anaheim 30/1 30/1
Colorado 45/1 35/1
N.Y. Rangers 45/1 35/1
Carolina 35/1 40/1
Atlanta 75/1 45/1
St. Louis 40/1 45/1
Buffalo 25/1 75/1
Columbus 75/1 80/1
Minnesota 75/1 100/1
Florida 75/1 100/1
Ottawa 40/1 150/1
Calgary 30/1 150/1
New Jersey 15/1 200/1
Toronto 60/1 200/1
N.Y. Islanders 60/1 500/1
Edmonton 100/1 500/1


according to vegas the caps are the 4th best odds to win the cup and have only slipped from 6/1 to 8/1 with all losing we have been doing. I guess vegas has no idea what they are doing for saying we are still a top contender


Goatlender. If you want to give me the caps at 30/1 odds like you think they are. lets talk

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01-29-2011, 02:00 PM
  #205
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Originally Posted by Goatlender View Post
If that's where you set the bar then there's no argument to be had. By that logic there's

Somehow Blues managed to stay 30 years without getting hot. Flames had 4 consecutive flameouts in the first round. I don't consider a team being a legitimate cup contender if their core has not once gone deep in the playoffs. Once they manage to get "hot" enough to at least get to a conference final, then yeah, I'd consider them a contender. So far they've only once managed to get "hot" against a woefully inferior opponent in NYR they almost gave away the series to.

Right now I see Detroit, Philly and Pittsburgh as legitimate contenders, with Chicago, Vancouver and Boston not being on quite the same level but having better chances than us, then us about on the level with Dallas, Anaheim and Montreal. As far as there being "no forseeable end", they're just 7 points in the playoffs. Another losing streak, which isn't inconceivable, could put them fighting just for a playoff spot. I wouldn't bet on them missing the playoffs this year, but it's far from set in stone if they can't start beating at least half-decent opponents again.
So, when the Caps were lapping the league last year, were they not contenders?

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01-29-2011, 02:12 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by Ovechkins Wodka View Post
Goatlender is a troll and cleary doesnt know much about hockey.

If you want to talk contenders lets look at what the people who do this for a living say. Vegas odds have no bias or Homer panic

ODDS TO WIN THE 2011 NHL STANLEY CUP FINALS
Team Open Current
Pittsburgh 6/1 9/2
Vancouver 12/1 5/1
Philadelphia 12/1 11/2
Washington 6/1 8/1
Detroit 8/1 8/1
Boston 20/1 14/1
Dallas 60/1 15/1
Chicago 5/1 18/1
San Jose 8/1 20/1
Tampa Bay 45/1 20/1
Phoenix 35/1 25/1
Los Angeles 15/1 25/1
Montreal 30/1 25/1
Nashville 40/1 30/1
Anaheim 30/1 30/1
Colorado 45/1 35/1
N.Y. Rangers 45/1 35/1
Carolina 35/1 40/1
Atlanta 75/1 45/1
St. Louis 40/1 45/1
Buffalo 25/1 75/1
Columbus 75/1 80/1
Minnesota 75/1 100/1
Florida 75/1 100/1
Ottawa 40/1 150/1
Calgary 30/1 150/1
New Jersey 15/1 200/1
Toronto 60/1 200/1
N.Y. Islanders 60/1 500/1
Edmonton 100/1 500/1


according to vegas the caps are the 4th best odds to win the cup and have only slipped from 6/1 to 8/1 with all losing we have been doing. I guess vegas has no idea what they are doing for saying we are still a top contender


Goatlender. If you want to give me the caps at 30/1 odds like you think they are. lets talk
Hmm, I wonder where Vegas had us last year and how that ended up.

But I'd question anyone's judgment who puts Vancouver as the top 2 and us at or above Detroit, Boston, Dallas or Chicago, given how we've played up until this point. Unless you're anticipating a Brad Richards trade or us suddenly developing offensive cohesion we haven't shown this year.

Caps at 20-25/1 seems fair to me.

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01-29-2011, 02:31 PM
  #207
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Vegas odds have nothing to do with a team's chances. Odds are set to even out the exposure that the Book has so it turns a profit no matter who wins. It's about what people are betting, not the teams actual chances.

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01-29-2011, 02:37 PM
  #208
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Originally Posted by Goatlender View Post
I'd question anyone's judgment who puts Vancouver as the top 2 and us at or above Detroit, Boston, Dallas or Chicago, given how we've played up until this point.
Interesting that you put Chicago ahead of Vancouver, while the Blackhawks are in a death struggle to even make the playoffs. They are way off their performance of last season. Yet you have the Caps as an also ran. I am impressed.

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01-29-2011, 02:39 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by Goatlender View Post
Hmm, I wonder where Vegas had us last year and how that ended up.

But I'd question anyone's judgment who puts Vancouver as the top 2 and us at or above Detroit, Boston, Dallas or Chicago, given how we've played up until this point. Unless you're anticipating a Brad Richards trade or us suddenly developing offensive cohesion we haven't shown this year.

Caps at 20-25/1 seems fair to me.
What does last year matter, at all? Is the team playing the same way as last year? Does the team have the same personnel as last year?

And why wouldn't Vancouver be in the top 2? They're certainly one of the top 2 teams in the league right now?

And 20-25/1 for the Caps is absurd. That's the sort of thing I'd expect to see from a Pens fan.

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01-29-2011, 02:41 PM
  #210
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Originally Posted by WanderingCapsFan View Post
Vegas odds have nothing to do with a team's chances. Odds are set to even out the exposure that the Book has so it turns a profit no matter who wins. It's about what people are betting, not the teams actual chances.
Your two sentences are contradictory. Odds absolutely have to do with a team's actual chances. It's not a 1-to-1 correspondence, obviously, but the best teams will have the best odds just about all of the time.

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01-29-2011, 02:45 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Your two sentences are contradictory. Odds absolutely have to do with a team's actual chances. It's not a 1-to-1 correspondence, obviously, but the best teams will have the best odds just about all of the time.
Only with respect to how smart the bettors are.

If someone walks into the Bellagio tomorrow and plunks down $2 million on the Edmonton Oilers, their odds would go way down, and others would go up, in order for the Book to encourage wagers on other teams and discourage more wagers on the Oilers.

In fact, the chances that the Oilers would win the cup didn't change, but their odds did.

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01-29-2011, 03:22 PM
  #212
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Well put, WCF. Edmonton has no chance whatsoever to win the Cup this year no matter what the Vegas odds suggest. A lot of Caps fans use the same mistaken methodology to pretend the Caps have a better chance than they actually do. With the players and coaches they have today I see no chance at all. But if they make a blockbuster trade that unifies the team (Brad Richards?) then the Caps will have a real chance at it. The Hannan trade was unifying for the D. That's a definite step in the right direction. But IMO McPhee is too timid because he lacks a grand vision for the team.

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01-29-2011, 03:23 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by WanderingCapsFan View Post
Only with respect to how smart the bettors are.

If someone walks into the Bellagio tomorrow and plunks down $2 million on the Edmonton Oilers, their odds would go way down, and others would go up, in order for the Book to encourage wagers on other teams and discourage more wagers on the Oilers.

In fact, the chances that the Oilers would win the cup didn't change, but their odds did.
But people don't make sucker bets, because its actually their money on the line, and their goal isn't to move the odds, it's generally to make money. Volume of bets takes care of the "one crazed fan" problem. The only real problem is lack of information, which we have no reason to believe is in play here.

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01-29-2011, 03:36 PM
  #214
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Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
Well put, WCF. Edmonton has no chance whatsoever to win the Cup this year no matter what the Vegas odds suggest. A lot of Caps fans use the same mistaken methodology to pretend the Caps have a better chance than they actually do. With the players and coaches they have today I see no chance at all. But if they make a blockbuster trade that unifies the team (Brad Richards?) then the Caps will have a real chance at it. The Hannan trade was unifying for the D. That's a definite step in the right direction. But IMO McPhee is too timid because he lacks a grand vision for the team.
Phase 1: Draft well

Phase 2: ?

Phase 3: Stanley Cupz!

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01-29-2011, 03:41 PM
  #215
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But people don't make sucker bets, because its actually their money on the line, and their goal isn't to move the odds, it's generally to make money. Volume of bets takes care of the "one crazed fan" problem. The only real problem is lack of information, which we have no reason to believe is in play here.
Of course there is lack of information. We don't know who is injured, playing hurt. Who will wear down and who will step up to the pressure. There is so much we don't know.

Plus, people make wagers in Vegas without full information all the time. People bet on their hometown team for fun. More Angelenos go to Vegas than from anywhere else, so this could depress the odds on the Kings/Ducks. People may bet on Pittsburgh because they hear that this Crosby kid is good. Maybe they bet on the Caps because they like Ovechkin's toothy smile. Casual fans may bet Vancouver/Philly because they have the best record in the league (that makes them the best teams, right?).

There are many factors that affect wagering and odds that are far removed from the teams actual chances of winning the Cup.

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01-29-2011, 03:42 PM
  #216
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Sigh. All-Star break.

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01-29-2011, 03:49 PM
  #217
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Originally Posted by WanderingCapsFan View Post
Of course there is lack of information. We don't know who is injured, playing hurt. Who will wear down and who will step up to the pressure. There is so much we don't know.


Plus, people make wagers in Vegas without full information all the time. People bet on their hometown team for fun. More Angelenos go to Vegas than from anywhere else, so this could depress the odds on the Kings/Ducks. People may bet on Pittsburgh because they hear that this Crosby kid is good. Maybe they bet on the Caps because they like Ovechkin's toothy smile. Casual fans may bet Vancouver/Philly because they have the best record in the league (that makes them the best teams, right?).

There are many factors that affect wagering and odds that are far removed from the teams actual chances of winning the Cup.
You don't understand what lack of information means for betting purposes. There is lack of information in the sense that we don't know what the real odds of the Capitals winning the Stanley Cup are (29 teams have no odds and 1 team has 100% odds in the sense you're trying to use it). There is not lack of information in the sense that the bettors are aware of every piece of information that is public about every team. Unless you assume that the Capitals are somehow hiding more devastating information to their chances than every other team (ie that Ovechkin is not only playing injured, but that the injury will actually make him play worse than the bettors can currently see), then the information is generally good right now in order to make the odds.

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01-29-2011, 03:51 PM
  #218
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The original odds published having nothing to do with betting trends, correct? They're an actual projection of a team's chances to win, no?

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01-29-2011, 03:58 PM
  #219
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The original odds published having nothing to do with betting trends, correct? They're an actual projection of a team's chances to win, no?
correct. Vegas odds have nothing to do with the likelihood of any actual event happening. They have to do with the book maximizing their aibility to maximize their profits while minimizing their risk.

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01-29-2011, 04:24 PM
  #220
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correct. Vegas odds have nothing to do with the likelihood of any actual event happening. They have to do with the book maximizing their aibility to maximize their profits while minimizing their risk.
That is 100% correct.

And the original odds posted, before betting begins (the opening line) does not reflect the oddsmakers opinion on who has the best chance if winning, it reflects the oddmakers best guess as to how the money will flow.

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01-29-2011, 04:36 PM
  #221
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Your real comparables are just as fundamentally flawed as his. You cannot compare RFA deals to UFA deals. You just can't.

The true comparables are guys like Komisarek, Paul Martin, Z. Michalek, Hamhuis, etc. Except that Green is more valuable than all of them.
i disagree about that. the cap and the offer sheet take most of the R/UFA disparity away. buffy is the only one of the D i listed who is on a steal of contract right now, but he's only earned that raise in the last 8 months after signing.

basically, silly contracts offered by darryl sutter or glen sather should not be used casually as comparables because those two are not able, for one reason or another, to skew the market anymore. if redden is worth 6.6, then green is worth 12. how about chara and keith ~$5.5-6.5M/year.


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