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Toronto to make a big move (or moves?)

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Old
01-30-2011, 09:32 AM
  #551
eyeball11
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Originally Posted by Barbadian91 View Post
That's pretty homer buddy. Do you know who any of these prospects even are? Any one who knows something about prospects would likely say that Eakin, Kuznetsov and Orlov are better.
This being Hockeysfuture, you COULD always go back a page and click on their rankings:

Blacker 7.0 C
Ross 7.0 C
McKegg 7.0 C
Kadri 8.0 C

Eakin 6.5 B
Kuznetzov 7.5 C
Orlov 7.0 C

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01-30-2011, 09:34 AM
  #552
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Absolutely. And Reimer isn't one of them. Of course, a lot of teams in the NHL don't actually need a goaltending prospect like that in order to be set in goal for the foreseeable future, because they already have a starter good enough to be competetive. But the Leafs aren't one of those teams either.
How many of those starting goaltenders were top tier, can't miss goaltending prospects? Far less than you would think. One of Rynnas, Reimer, and Scrivens as a trio have as much of a chance at becoming a solid starting goaltender as any one goaltending prospect.

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01-30-2011, 10:22 AM
  #553
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Since there's a conclusion in there, I suppose there must also be some kind of reasoning preceding it. It's just hard to see what it could be. Do you know what it is ? If so, perhaps you coudl be bothered to share it?
Loui Eriksson 5 years ago: 59 games played, 6 goals 13 assists
Ryan Kesler 5 years ago: 48 games played, 6 goals 10 assists
Mike Richards 5 years ago: 59 games played, 10 goals 22 assists
Patrick Sharp 5 years ago: 80 games played, 20 goal 10 assists
Jeff Carter 5 years ago: 62 games played, 14 goals 23 assists

A lot can change in 5 years.

Kulemin is already having a better year than any of these guys did 5 years ago. How good will he be in 5 years? Same with Kessel. Your general statement that if this is going to be Toronto's top line 5 years from now then Toronto is is trouble is stupid.

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01-30-2011, 10:23 AM
  #554
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Originally Posted by Dr Danglefest View Post
Marlies are 18th in the AHL (outta 30 of course) so the leafs dont have the worst system i suppose, of course this doesnt include players in juniors and playing in other leagues, but it obviously says something
It sounds like it says you don't follow the AHL.

The AHL is a league full of guys who will never make the bigs. It is NOT a league containing the majority of a team's top prospects. The first thing you may want to note is that on the first place team, 15 players have played at least 40 games while the Marlies have had 11. Many people on their team have been injured or called up and down. Hard to get a lot of consistency that way. The second thing you may want to note is of the top 10 scorers on the first overall team, only 3 are listed among their top 20 prospects and 8/10 are 25 or older.

If you want to gauge the Leaf prospects, how about looking at their individual performances in the leagues they are in? For example:

PROSPECTGPGOALSASSISTSPOINTSAGE
AHL-----
Keith Aulie3136921
Nazem Kadri217142120
NCAA-----
Matt Frattin2720103023
OHL-----
Jesse Blacker419303919
Greg McKegg4531316218
Kenny Ryan3913213419
WHL-----
Josh Nicholls4622355718
Brad Ross4515243918
SWEDEN-----
Sondre Olden266111818
AHL-----
James Reimer15-0.9202.5922
Jussi Rynnas24- 0.9152.6323
Ben Scrivens11-0.9342.4224
ECHL-----
Ben Scrivens11-0.9362.1824

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01-30-2011, 10:43 AM
  #555
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
Loui Eriksson 5 years ago: 59 games played, 6 goals 13 assists
Ryan Kesler 5 years ago: 48 games played, 6 goals 10 assists
Mike Richards 5 years ago: 59 games played, 10 goals 22 assists
Patrick Sharp 5 years ago: 80 games played, 20 goal 10 assists
Jeff Carter 5 years ago: 62 games played, 14 goals 23 assists

A lot can change in 5 years.

Kulemin is already having a better year than any of these guys did 5 years ago. How good will he be in 5 years? Same with Kessel. Your general statement that if this is going to be Toronto's top line 5 years from now then Toronto is is trouble is stupid.
Eriksson - 1985
Kesler - 1984
Richards - 1985
Sharp - 1981
Carter - 1985

Kulemin - 1986

I am NOT saying that Kulemin is a bad player, or that he won't turn into a good first line hockey player. However, you used a pretty flaw method of making your point. Kulemin is about the same age as all the players you listed (save for Sharp). So to use them as examples of development curves Kulemin could mimic is not fair as Kulemin has clearly missed the boat to follow in their paths.

You want to find examples of guys who developed after the age of 25, not guys who were developed by 25. If Kulemin was five years younger you would have a better point using these players.

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01-30-2011, 10:48 AM
  #556
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Originally Posted by Fan 4 Life View Post
Eriksson - 1985
Kesler - 1984
Richards - 1985
Sharp - 1981
Carter - 1985

Kulemin - 1986

I am NOT saying that Kulemin is a bad player, or that he won't turn into a good first line hockey player. However, you used a pretty flaw method of making your point. Kulemin is about the same age as all the players you listed (save for Sharp). So to use them as examples of development curves Kulemin could mimic is not fair as Kulemin has clearly missed the boat to follow in their paths.

You want to find examples of guys who developed after the age of 25, not guys who were developed by 25. If Kulemin was five years younger you would have a better point using these players.
My point was more that a lot can change over 5 years. I know he is similar in age to most of hte players. Half a decade is a long time. People throw around the whole 5 year thing like its not a big deal.

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01-30-2011, 10:50 AM
  #557
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might be able to throw Zach Hamill in too.
Hamill is burried in boston

Hamill + Wheeler for Kaberle wouldn't actually be that bad

Esp if Kaberle is going to walk at years end.

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01-30-2011, 10:50 AM
  #558
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Yes, but then the next group of ELC players will come along for the Caps (Orlove, Kuznetsyov, Eakin). The Leafs really don't have much. They need to build their prospect pool if they want to be contenders. Burke just seems to want to build a team, go all in for a year, and then fail again.

Whatever though, it brings comic relief for every other team's fans.

that's been burkes MO for a long time though. Ask canucks fans what they think of the state Burke left their prospect pool in, or ask ducks fans. Burke is the guy you hire when you feel your team is close but needs a push over the top, he's the last guy you hire when you need to do a full out rebuild.

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01-30-2011, 10:58 AM
  #559
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that's been burkes MO for a long time though. Ask canucks fans what they think of the state Burke left their prospect pool in, or ask ducks fans. Burke is the guy you hire when you feel your team is close but needs a push over the top, he's the last guy you hire when you need to do a full out rebuild.
Outside of trading our two firsts for kessel, Burke has improved our prospect pool by leaps and bounds. Hes had 3 2nd rd picks in two years, all of which have solid NHL potential. He also signed Rynnas and Scrivens as solid goaltending prospects.

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01-30-2011, 10:59 AM
  #560
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Originally Posted by sgupca View Post
Hamill is burried in boston

Hamill + Wheeler for Kaberle wouldn't actually be that bad


Esp if Kaberle is going to walk at years end.

Yes it would be.

If Hamill was talented enough to crack the roster, they would of found a spot for him by now. Just look at his numbers in the AHL. Most Bruins fans even agree that he's pretty close to being in the bust category.

Wheeler would be another bottom 6 guy we don't need. Would he replace Kule or Mac on the 2nd line? Is he good enough to be an everyday 1st line winger??

If Chiarelli is really looking for a PMD and wants to re-sign Kabs with him agreeing to it, then Jordan Caron would have to be involved in the deal. Why part with Kabs unless we get fair value back??

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01-30-2011, 11:03 AM
  #561
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
Loui Eriksson 5 years ago: 59 games played, 6 goals 13 assists
Ryan Kesler 5 years ago: 48 games played, 6 goals 10 assists
Mike Richards 5 years ago: 59 games played, 10 goals 22 assists
Patrick Sharp 5 years ago: 80 games played, 20 goal 10 assists
Jeff Carter 5 years ago: 62 games played, 14 goals 23 assists

A lot can change in 5 years.

Kulemin is already having a better year than any of these guys did 5 years ago. How good will he be in 5 years? Same with Kessel. Your general statement that if this is going to be Toronto's top line 5 years from now then Toronto is is trouble is stupid.
Of course they're going to change in 5 years! Did you friggin think anyone was assuming that Kadri/Kulemin/Kessel would be the same five years down the road as they are now?

I simply don't think they project as players who will be good enough to give the Leafs a really bona fide top line. Is there a likely 80-pt player in there, down the road? Don't think so. I don't see them as a viable forward core for a contending team in five years. Though there is no doubt no shortage of Leafs fans who do.

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01-30-2011, 11:06 AM
  #562
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Originally Posted by mcphllp View Post
My point was more that a lot can change over 5 years. I know he is similar in age to most of hte players. Half a decade is a long time. People throw around the whole 5 year thing like its not a big deal.
You're right in that we can't tell the future. Hell maybe Kovi will score 50 in the last year of his contract and then get re-signed till he's 70. The point is when you are projecting players you should generally use what the norm is. Kulemin is following a normal path to a solid NHL career, but not a first line player. He could turn into one, we don't know, but it's fair to project in 5 years he won't be a first line player on a top team.

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01-30-2011, 11:09 AM
  #563
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Originally Posted by sgupca View Post
Hamill is burried in boston

Hamill + Wheeler for Kaberle wouldn't actually be that bad

Esp if Kaberle is going to walk at years end.
If Kaberle is going to waive, I would much much much rather take a pick then Hamill+Wheeler IMHO

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01-30-2011, 11:10 AM
  #564
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Originally Posted by sgupca View Post
Hamill is burried in boston

Hamill + Wheeler for Kaberle wouldn't actually be that bad

Esp if Kaberle is going to walk at years end.
You know Boston is team we need to jump over in the standing right? Why make them better?

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01-30-2011, 11:11 AM
  #565
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How many of those starting goaltenders were top tier, can't miss goaltending prospects? Far less than you would think.
Seriously, what kind of kindergarten logic is that? Sure, a significant proportion of starting goalies weren't regarded as top tier prospects. unfortunately, the rather more relevant point is that a minimal proportion of goalie prospects who weren't regarded as top tier becomes starting goaltenders.

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One of Rynnas, Reimer, and Scrivens as a trio have as much of a chance at becoming a solid starting goaltender as any one goaltending prospect.
Ha ha, right. just like three fifth round picks is the equal of a first-rounder.

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01-30-2011, 11:14 AM
  #566
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Seriously, what kind of kindergarten logic is that? Sure, a significant proportion of starting goalies weren't regarded as top tier prospects. unfortunately, the rather more relevant point is that a minimal proportion of goalie prospects who weren't regarded as top tier becomes starting goaltenders.


Ha ha, right. just like three fifth round picks is the equal of a first-rounder.
With that line of thought, then why weren't Zetterberg or Datsyuk picked 1st overall then.

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01-30-2011, 11:15 AM
  #567
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You're right in that we can't tell the future. Hell maybe Kovi will score 50 in the last year of his contract and then get re-signed till he's 70. The point is when you are projecting players you should generally use what the norm is. Kulemin is following a normal path to a solid NHL career, but not a first line player. He could turn into one, we don't know, but it's fair to project in 5 years he won't be a first line player on a top team.
Thank you. Exactly - and the point was raised in response to a poster who argued that the Leafs were pretty much set for the future. We can of course all agree that we can't look into the future, agree that the Leafs currently suck and then shut up. But if we're discussing what the Leafs have in place or not, then projections had better be based on something more reasonable than fan enthusiasm.

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01-30-2011, 11:18 AM
  #568
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Originally Posted by Darkhorse1280 View Post
With that line of thought, then why weren't Zetterberg or Datsyuk picked 1st overall then.


I give up. I really do. Have they stopped teaching basic logic in Toronto schools or something? Do you really need that question answered? Good heavens......

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01-30-2011, 11:24 AM
  #569
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Yes it would be.

If Hamill was talented enough to crack the roster, they would of found a spot for him by now. Just look at his numbers in the AHL. Most Bruins fans even agree that he's pretty close to being in the bust category.

Wheeler would be another bottom 6 guy we don't need. Would he replace Kule or Mac on the 2nd line? Is he good enough to be an everyday 1st line winger??


If Chiarelli is really looking for a PMD and wants to re-sign Kabs with him agreeing to it, then Jordan Caron would have to be involved in the deal. Why part with Kabs unless we get fair value back??
1. A lot of Bruins fans (myself included) have crapped all over Hamill since 2008 because his numbers did not improve in The CHL. He had a great year in The CHL his draft year and came back down to earth the year after being drafted. Since turning pro he has been nothing special; something along the lines of a 3rd/2nd line center at the AHL level. Again, nothing special. I have not seen him this year, but the reports I am reading on him say he might finally be turning the corner. He's worth a gamble but you are right, he has little value. If Toronto could get him as a throw in, they should.

2. Wheeler: I honestly think Wheeler's numbers would be much better in Toronto in Wilson's system. It's much more suited for Wheeler's game. I am a Wheeler fan, but as along as he stays in Boston, and plays in a defensive 1st system he will be a 20-25-45 type of guy. He still looks lost at times in CJ's system. He is a hard worker but this system is not made for him.



All that said (IMO) Wheeler and Hamill does not get you TK.
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Originally Posted by Megan Fox View Post
You know Boston is team we need to jump over in the standing right? Why make them better?
Wait, you really think there is even a chance Toronto passes Boston this year in the standings? Toronto is 20 points back in the standings. Boston needs 6 more wins to surpass Toronto's point total from last year (74 points)... and Toronto is currently on a pace for 72 points. Yes, less then last year.


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01-30-2011, 11:41 AM
  #570
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Of course they're going to change in 5 years! Did you friggin think anyone was assuming that Kadri/Kulemin/Kessel would be the same five years down the road as they are now?

I simply don't think they project as players who will be good enough to give the Leafs a really bona fide top line. Is there a likely 80-pt player in there, down the road? Don't think so. I don't see them as a viable forward core for a contending team in five years. Though there is no doubt no shortage of Leafs fans who do.
I'll go out on a limb and assume you know only 11 teams in the whole league had an 80+ point player last year (and that almost 40% of those failed to make the playoffs)?

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01-30-2011, 11:41 AM
  #571
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I give up. I really do. Have they stopped teaching basic logic in Toronto schools or something? Do you really need that question answered? Good heavens......
Please do.

Because what I'm getting from you statement is that if you're drafted in the 5th round, then you stand no chance of ever *improving (*keyword here) or making it to the NHL??

Yes, a 1st round pick is more valuable that 3 5th round picks...AT THE TIME. But how is that relevant if in a few years that those later picks turn out to be solid prospects while the 1st rounder turns into nothing special and turns into a career call-up???

Watch alot of AHL and ECHL games in Norway I guess?

Then how would you know that Reimer, Rynnas and Scrivens aren't proof that late round picks and undraftees can, with a little time and patience, inevitably develop into solid goaltending prospects?? So yeah, you line of thinking with this is skewed at best if this is what you're getting at. Please correct me if I've misinterpreted any of your above statement.

Oh and how many NHLers has Norway produced??

How many has the city of Toronto and the GTA produced???... Exactly.

Our school system is doing just fine thank you.

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01-30-2011, 11:55 AM
  #572
Tony Clifton Leaf
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Just like three fifth round picks is the equal of a first-rounder.
It might surprise you, but when talking in terms of goalie's, you're actually right:

http://gospelofhockey.blogspot.com/2...kents-old.html

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01-30-2011, 12:00 PM
  #573
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Calm down, killer. I never said the Leafs were going to pass Boston this year or next. I just said we were trying. No need to start frothing at the mouth.

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01-30-2011, 12:02 PM
  #574
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The point is that the Leafs do not have a goaltending prospect who can reasonably be expected to become a solid No 1 goalie in the NHL. You know, as opposed to someone who could conceivably do so, or someone you really, really like. I don't care if you've watched every game he's played for the past five years - as per now, James Reimer is not the sort of prospect in whose hands the Leafs future in goal can be confidently placed.
There's no goalie prospect in the NHL who is just thrown confidently into the starter's role.

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01-30-2011, 12:07 PM
  #575
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[QUOTE=Darkhorse1280;30546396]Please do.

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Because what I'm getting from you statement is that if you're drafted in the 5th round, then you stand no chance of ever *improving (*keyword here) or making it to the NHL??
Really? Where's that coming from? Because it's not coming from anything I've written.

Quote:
Yes, a 1st round pick is more valuable that 3 5th round picks...AT THE TIME. But how is that relevant if in a few years that those later picks turn out to be solid prospects while the 1st rounder turns into nothing special and turns into a career call-up???
Hehe, right. You do actually need that explained. OK, here goes. The relatively straightforward and simple point I attempted to illustrate is that quantity of prospects doesn't compensate for quality. Three decent/average G prospects don't give you what one premier G prospect does. Just like three 5th round picks is not worth nearly as much as one 1st round pick. It's a question of probabilities.

The fact that exceptionally, players drafted in the late round turn ingto stars, does of course not change this. For every Henrik Zetterberg there are 200 nobodies. This is actually pretty basic logic you know.

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Watch alot of AHL and ECHL games in Norway I guess?

Then how would you know that Reimer, Rynnas and Scrivens aren't proof that late round picks and undraftees can, with a little time and patience, inevitably develop into solid goaltending prospects?? So yeah, you line of thinking with this is skewed at best if this is what you're getting at. Please correct me if I've misinterpreted any of your above statement.
Well, allow me to correct you for having misinterpreted my above statement. Of course late round picks and undrafted players can develop into NHL stars. I don't know that Reimer can't develop into a premier G prospect. Nor have I remotely argued any such thing. I am simply pointing out that if you're projecting, the possibility that Reimer might reach that level is not the same thing as a reasonable likelihood that he will. Furthermore, that three decent prospects does not in fact equal one really good one.

Quote:
Oh and how many NHLers has Norway produced??

How many has the city of Toronto and the GTA produced???... Exactly.
Excactly what? Man, this is great stuff. I should just let you talk.

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Our school system is doing just fine thank you.
Oh right, good, it's just the drop-outs we're getting in this thread then.

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