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02-04-2011, 05:14 PM
  #1
glenngineer
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Poile's Drafting

Much has been about Poile over the years. Here are the drafts of the Preds since their inception. People say he doesn't draft forwards well in the first round. I'm gonna put our top pick that year, multiple first rounders that we may have had and the ensuing 5 picks of the draft. At that point, I'd like to see if Poile really failed or succeeded in relation to the teams/GM's around him.

1998- David Legwand - Brad Stuart, Bryan Allen, Vitali Vishnevski, Rico Fata, Manny Malhotra

1999- Brian Finley - Kris Beech, Taylor Pyatt, Jamie Lundmark, Branislav Mezei, Oleg Saprykin

2000- Scott Hartnell - Lars Jonsson, Nikita Alexeev, Brent Krahn, Mikhail Yakubov, Pavel Vorobiev

2001- Dan Hamhuis - Ales Hemsky, Chuck Kobasew, Igor Knyazev, R. J. Umberger, Carlo Colaiacovo

2002- Scottie Upshall - Joffrey Lupul, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Petr Taticek, Eric Nystrom, Keith Ballard

2003- Ryan Suter - Braydon Coburn, Dion Phaneuf, Andrei Kostitsyn, Jeff Carter, Hugh Jessiman

2004- Alexander Radulov - Petteri Nokelainen, Marek Schwarz, Kyle Chipchura, Lauri Korpikoski, Travis Zajac

2005- Ryan Parent - Jakub Kindl, Kenndal McArdle, Tuukka Rask, Matt Lashof, Nicklas Bergfors

2006- No first, Blake Geoffrion earliest pick. not gonna put the 5 guys after since I've never heard of them...lol

2007- Jonathan Blum - Mikael Backlund, Patrick White, David Perron, Brendan Smith, Nick Petrecki

2008- Colin Wilson - Mikkel Boedker, Josh Bailey, Cody Hodgson, Kyle Beach, Tyler Myers
Chet Pickard - Luca Sbisa, Michael Del Zotto, Anton Gustafsson, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Cuma

2009- Ryan Ellis - Calvin de Haan, Zack Kassian, Dmitri Kulikov, Peter Holland, Nick Leddy

2010- Austin Watson - Nick Bjugstad, Beau Bennett, Riley Sheahan, Jarred Tinordi, Mark Pysyk

So taking a look back, did Poile really miss that severely? Really too hard to tell this early on from about 2007 and forward but I'll start there. We moved up to get Wilson for a reason and while he isn't putting up Stamkos numbers, not too many guys are. Something to think about, Columbus picked one slot ahead of us and selected Filatov. Not working out so well with that pick.

Maybe we should've thrown a flier at Eberle instead of Pickard but we didn't have the goalie depth at the time we made that pick. It's also waaay too early to know if Pickard is a bust or not.

Let's go back a little bit now. The 5 guys after Parent were not impact forwards so Poile did not fail there. Maybe he could've gone after Rask instead but that's the only one of the 5 after I would've gone after.

2004 we take Rads and took the risk. Other than Zajac, who else was there that was worth the pick? Poile took a chance and we got burned by him being immature and wanting to play in Russia.

2003. Suter. Enough said. Some will say, there are lots of guys that went later that turned out to be studs. Very true but Suter is one of the best blue liners in the game today and lots of other GM's passed on guys like Parise, Carter, Getzlaf and Perry. Also, at the time, those 4 weren't rated as high so Poile would've been taking a huge risk with a top 10 pick. I think we did just fine there.

2002 was a crapshoot. Lupul is a solid player but always injured. Bouchard is a concussion machine and Ballard is a D-man. Not sure there was a good selection there but I probably would've gone with Lupul if I had a time machine.

2001 sees us take our first defenseman in the first round with Hamhuis. This is the only time I would've said Poile failed. Hemsky would be the guy I would take, once again with the aid of a time machine. Umberger would've been very much the same type of player we usually take. Hamhuis filled a role for us and did it well so can't really complain about the pick but if had gone Hemsky, we might have iced a top line of Legwand, Hemsky and Hartnell. Then again, we may not have had any d either.

2000 was Hartnell and the right pick.

1999 was Finley and a huge bust but the 5 after him were marginal NHL talent.

1998 was the year of the Legwand and the 5 after him were either defensemen or more offensively incompetent forwards.

So 6 forwards, 2 goalies and 5 defensemen taken with our first rounders. I didn't include Geoffrion in those totals. So we all sit and play armchair GM but other than the near miss on Hemsky and taking a chance on Radulov instead of Zajac, where did Poile really screw up with where we were picking and who he chose? Guys getting picked a round or more later don't equate to anything more than luck and lots of GM's have gotten lucky over the years, as has Poile. I would say Poile is as good at drafting guys in the later rounds as anyone in the league and while his top picks may not seem amazing, looking at what he was dealing with, he probably did as well as to be expected.

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02-04-2011, 05:41 PM
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dulzhok
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In short, it's been about average-or-slightly above. Some good, some bad, a couple of home-runs, a couple of huge busts. Better at dmen and goalies, with a noticeable weakness on forwards.

Other teams who are better than us have done better (with worse draft position). Detroit drafted 3 offensive studs (Zberg, Datysuk, Fanson) outside the first round. Philly drafted 3 offensive studs (Carter, Richards, Girioux) in the middle-to-late 1st.

Much of the later rounds are a product of our scouting staff. Poile's direct influence and attention is likely more on the 1st rd picks than later rds.


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02-04-2011, 06:29 PM
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glenngineer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
In short, it's been about average-or-slightly above. Some good, some bad, a couple of home-runs, a couple of huge busts. Better at dmen and goalies, with a noticeable weakness on forwards.

Other teams who are better than us have done better (with worse draft position). Detroit drafted 3 offensive studs (Zberg, Datysuk, Fanson) outside the first round. Philly drafted 3 offensive studs (Carter, Richards, Girioux) in the middle-to-late 1st.

Much of the later rounds are a product of our scouting staff. Poile's direct influence and attention is likely more on the 1st rd picks than later rds.
Let's dissect this ok? Drafting studs outside the first round is not a science. Yes, Detroit did just that, they got three studs that way. 29 other GM's also missed the boat on those three. So is that Poile or is it the money we're allotted for scouting overseas? You can only draft what you have info on. Let's take it one step further, we've drafted guys like Weber, Klein, Rinne, Erat, Hornqvist Tootoo and Erat outside the first round. While not the offensive studs upfront, Weber is one of the best defensemen in the NHL. He was drafted after Suter AND Klein. 29 other teams passed on him so Poile struck gold.

As far as your Philly analogy, the year Carter and Richards were taken we took Suter. The 2003 draft was one of the best of all time. I like Carter and Richards but remember, Carter was selected before Richards and I think Richards is a better player. I think Suter is better than both of those guys. While we're going down that draft, Philly could've had Parise, Getzlaf and Perry in the first round too. Kesler and Seabrook were also available. Carter was also 11th in a deep draft. Very good player but was he picked too high comparatively to guys taken later? Who knows for sure. Point being, I can't complain with the pick of Suter even though there was a ton of offensive talent available. Other teams passed on Getzlaf, Parise, Perry, Richards and Kesler so did Poile goof up on that one. Nope, not one bit.

So let's take it again to my point, look at the 5 picks after Poile selected in any draft in the first round, tell me who he should've picked other than Hemsky that would've been an upgrade up front? The point of the 5 after is to say, there were at least 5 other GM's selecting that didn't choose certain forwards up front in addition to Poile so he's either going with the scouting reports, like the other GM's or he's off his rocker.

The draft is not an exact science. Someone had made a comment in another thread that guys like Crosby, Ovie and Stamkos are no brainers. Well, what about guys like Stefan, Yashin, Daigle, Wickenheiser, etc that were highly touted, taken in the first 2 or 3 picks and were giant busts?

We can go back and analyze drafts and who we should've taken but GM's don't have that luxury. Yes, I think Poile doesn't draft forwards as well as he does defensemen but looking at the drafts, where we were picking and who was available, I think he made some pretty decent picks over the years. Hemsky and Zajac would be the only two I wish he would've changed. Then again, maybe those guys come into our system and suck it up and never make it and we lose a guy like Hamhuis who was a pretty productive player for us.

Heck, look at 2006. First 5 picks were Erik Johnson, Jordan Staal, Toews, Backstrom and Kessel. If you were St. Louis you'd have a case that Johnson was the wrong pick. If you're Pittsburgh, you could say Staal was the wrong pick.

You and I and everyone else here could analyze and re-analyze the drafts over the years and see plenty of mistakes on every team that has ever played. Do we have a pretty successful team that is relatively stable on the ice? I'd have to say yes. Could we do better, sure. Are we bad at drafting? No. Look at teams like Columbus and Atlanta. Heck, look at the Wild for that matter. Heck, really look at Florida and how poorly that team has been constructed and then deconstructed.

Detroit is a rare organization in that the owner has the deep pockets to fund a team, a coaching staff and a scouting staff beyond belief. Illitch is the exception, not the rule. They also had the luxury of having all-stars to help bring along guys like Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Fransen. Our forwards have never had the luxury of learning from a guy like Stevie Y on the offensive side and no one like Lidstrom on the blue line to teach our defensemen. That is just as huge as anything. It takes time to build a team correctly. We're on the right path and while I get frustrated just like you, do we want to build and tear down the team every few years if we don't get the results we always want or expect? I want a winner. I want to get out of the first round. I also want some stability but I also want some accountability with it all as well. At the end of the day, we're on the same page. I would love to see some explosive talent up front come down the pike.

For what it's worth, if Beck turns into what he's projected as, a Shane Doan type, we're gonna do well there. If Budish can stay off of scooters and start playing like I think he can, we're gonna have a giant power forward with amazing hands around the net. If Latta turns out to be anything, he's gonna team with Beck to form an aggressive secondary scoring line. Cehlin looks like the real deal as well. While they're not first round talents, we may strike gold just the same and the 2009 draft may go down like the 2003 draft for us, 3-4 for solid NHL players.

Keep the faith man, keep the faith. It's gonna be ok, frustrating but ok.

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02-04-2011, 06:46 PM
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Given what Poile's budget is for scouting compared to other teams, I'm sure he's done pretty good considering.

I think Poile is a top 5 GM in this league and maybe even top 3 post lock out. We are starting to see guys like Lou Lamarello make mistakes and bow to ownership instead of sticking to his guns, fire coaches constantly, Burke has imploded a bit in Toronto, outside of Ken Holland, Poile has been probably the most consistent GM in the league.

Sure he didn't get all stars but he probably wasn't going for all stars, he's built a team that consistently wins by committee and gets the job done. That is worth something. Its about knowing your players.

Take Sergei Kostitsyn for example, most fans in Montreal knew he had the talent to be a top player, 2 years ago everybody was raviing about him but Montreal is a hard place to play, combine that with the politics of being Belarussian and your brother being on the team. But if handled properly he is a commodity.

being a good GM is as much about handling your talent as it is attracting talent. Development is underrated as a quality of GM's and its what makes guys like Holland and Poile good at their jobs, they get the most out of their players by developing them properly.

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02-04-2011, 06:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
snip:

I would say Poile is as good at drafting guys in the later rounds as anyone in the league and while his top picks may not seem amazing, looking at what he was dealing with, he probably did as well as to be expected.
I get this, you know this, and in short, he's (including his scouts) done a pretty good job of getting the best player available AT THE TIME. The crowd that will still find a way to complain will use hindsight and be strife with negativity, ignoring the fact that the Blow Jackets, the Thrashers, the Panthers, the Mild, the Islanders, etc... have been picking below us for the better part of a decade and still can't boast enough to even scratch the surface of our success. I'm not bragging or putting Poile on a pedestal, I was really pissed when he picked Finley, I was hoping he'd go after Tim Conolly, who in retrospect seems to be made of glass. Cheap glass, so I learned at that time that DP and his scouting staff are getting pretty damn good results at a pretty damn difficult job.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
In short, it's been about average-or-slightly above. Some good, some bad, a couple of home-runs, a couple of huge busts. Better at dmen and goalies, with a noticeable weakness on forwards.

Other teams who are better than us have done better (with worse draft position). Detroit drafted 3 offensive studs (Zberg, Datysuk, Fanson) outside the first round. Philly drafted 3 offensive studs (Carter, Richards, Girioux) in the middle-to-late 1st.

Much of the later rounds are a product of our scouting staff. Poile's direct influence and attention is likely more on the 1st rd picks than later rds.
Sorry, dude, but I'm so incredibly tired of this excuse. Detroit got lucky and drafted studs in the late rounds. First of all, they have the $ to pay scouts to go places that lots of other teams don't. Secondly, if they were that "high" on these guys, they would have taken them in an earlier round, which to me proves that they were late bloomers. Nothing wrong with that, happens to other teams, including our own (ie Rinne, Hornqvist, Erat, etc...)
Thirdly, one of the reasons that these guys become studs is that the likes of DET and PHI and others such as those, have LOTS of $ to spend on free agents while they let their talent develop. Not to mention that all those years of sucking in DET gave them top draft picks which led to top line talent. The other part of this is that these "magical stud" late-round picks get to play and learn from some of the highest talent in the entire world, much less the league. This has happened with several teams over the years. COL had that with Sakic and Forsberg, PHI had Lindross and LeClair.... You don't think that being able to play and learn from the best of the best didn't have a long-lasting and positive effect on these late-round picks? They have talent, undoubtedly, but there is much, much more to this game than talent. They learned a lot of those intangibles from the guys they played with before.

Say what you want about Poile and his inability to draft forwards, but other than Lidstrom and Kronwall, Detroit hasn't "hit" on many defensemen in a long time. The rest of their D is made up of free agents, has been for years, not to mention their goalie situation.

So, while I get that it's easy to be negative and critical of the moves a team makes, it gets a little bit old when you look at the success, especially relative to the teams that populate the bottom half of the league and spend more $ than we do, yet continue to put on a grandiose display of futility.

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02-04-2011, 07:01 PM
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You're basically saying you can't compare our situation to anybody's, but then trying to compare.

Philly took Carter and Richards in the same year. We also had a plenty of assets to move up to the 24th slot to take Richards, with 7 picks in the 2nd & 3rd round. That's also back when Arkhipov, Legwand, Erat had value.

Others have done better. Others have done worse. I agree with you, he's made some "decent" picks.


Last edited by dulzhok: 02-04-2011 at 07:07 PM.
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02-04-2011, 07:05 PM
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
Given what Poile's budget is for scouting compared to other teams, I'm sure he's done pretty good considering.
Is this publicized information (all NHL's scouting budget)? Can you post the link?

I love how Detroit gets "lucky" with Zberg and Datysuk in the late round, whereas Poile is a genius for picking Hornqvist and Rinne.

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02-04-2011, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
You're basically saying you can't compare our situation to anybody's, but then trying to compare.

Philly took Carter and Richards in the same year. We also had a plenty of assets to move up, with 7 picks in the 2nd & 3rd round. That's also back when Arkhipov, Legwand, Erat had value.

Others have done better. Others have done worse. I agree with you, he's made some "decent" picks.
Me? how did I say you can't compare? I think you can compare it. But I think that saying DET wins by picking up studs late (which are a crapshoot, I don't care what anyone says - hell for that matter DET passed up Hornqvist) is a fallacy. Once you get out of the first round, you're really just looking at a bunch of 18 year old kids with talent and a capacity for playing a game. Nothing more, really. I fully believe it's what you do with them after you draft them that makes the most difference. I believe that not only is Poile talented at seeing defensive ability, but Trotz and the coaching staff, including MIL, are very, very good at utilizing that talent and molding these guys into very good players.

Seeing your post, Dulzhok, no I don't think that Poile was any more of a genius than any other GM for Rinne and Hornqvist. I think it's a complete crapshoot.

And yes, before it's mentioned and harped on, I do not believe Trotz is great at developing offensive talent. Part of that is not being blessed with Rick Nash type of picks, but the other part of that is that he understands that the system his team employs, requires the forwards to be defensive responsible. You want proof of that, look at the last 2 game-losing goals. Both were situations where the forwards lost their men, and we lose another 1-goal game. Like it, hate it, complain about it however you want, but our forwards must play defense, or we will get creamed. And yes, there are many, many times I wish he would just give our forwards the green light to go all out, but realistically that would be hockey suicide.

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02-04-2011, 07:48 PM
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JR, the other thing about Trotz and developing offensive talent goes back to something both of us have said, having mentors and teachers that play along side you. Legwand had Johnson and Fitzgerald. Zetterberg and Datsyuk had Yzerman, Shanahan, Hull and Fedorov. Franzen also has Holmstrom to learn from as well since they play a similar game with Franzen having more skill. Big difference there.

Good thing is, our blue liners get to learn from Suter and Weber. Guys like Legwand and Erat got to learn from a guy like Kariya for a few years but more guys like Kariya for more than 2 years at a time would be a huge help. We can all say what we will about Dumont but he's helped Mueller and Halischuk adjust to the NHL. He's constantly talking to them on the bench. While neither will become a Datsyuk or Zetterberg, they have someone they can go to.

And Dulz, is has been noted in many publications that Detroit puts more money into scouting than any other team in the NHL. I'm not making it up but I'm also not going to go and find the links. You'll just have to trust me on that ok.

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02-04-2011, 08:09 PM
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I saw where JR said Det got lucky with Z and Datsyuk (players implicit in the post), but didn't see where anyone called Poile a genius for getting Rinne or Hornqvist (I think we can start to add Lindback to this list).

This is why I shouldn't have posted about Poile in the thread about the 2006 draft. I didn't look back at picks made just after whomever we picked in that year's draft. Poile hasn't really missed the mark that often in the first round. Legwand, Hartnell, Hamhuis, Upshall, Suter, Wilson, and Parent have all played in the NHL. Wilson looks like he'll be staying for a while, and Parent has injury problems that I don't believe were a problem before he was drafted. Blum and Ellis look like they will be playing in the NHL soon. Watson I was more excited about when we drafted him than I am now. I don't see that one panning out, but who knows? Also unknown at draft time was that Radulov would bolt. The best pure goal scorer Nashville has ever drafted, and I'm sure he would be potting 30-40 per year in the NHL consistently.

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02-04-2011, 09:02 PM
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maybe i'm out of the loop on our prospects, but why is everyone getting down on Watson? He's putting up the best numbers of his career despite being on a really, really bad team.

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02-04-2011, 09:04 PM
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Hey, guys, thanks for putting up with me today. I've been in a really, really foul mood today and this same old crap about drafting and Poile's ineffectiveness just hit a nerve. sorry.

I went back and re-read my first post, and I can see where I came across as saying DEt was lucky with their picks, but I meant that as that was something that people have said to me. Sorry for the confusion. I don't think it's really fair to call the lucky for drafting an off the radar guy with talent, and then turning him into a top tier player, I honestly think it's a situation of being able to provide the exact perfect method of development for that particular player. I imagine that if you switch the drafts of Erat and Datsyuk, they would almost be the exact same player the other is right now. I think each is a product of the environment in which they evolved as players.

You know, all this would fee a lot less important if they could just go out and wax Detroit's ass tomorrow.

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02-04-2011, 09:16 PM
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
Is this publicized information (all NHL's scouting budget)? Can you post the link?
No its not publisized information, its info on a need to know basis.

Here is a newsflash for you, Nashville operates on a more limited budget that Detroit does, Detroit has won 3 cups in the last 20 years, so they can afford to invest on scouting in obsecure countrries.

But don't share this with anyone, because its top secret info.

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02-04-2011, 09:18 PM
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maybe i'm out of the loop on our prospects, but why is everyone getting down on Watson? He's putting up the best numbers of his career despite being on a really, really bad team.
If I had to guess, I'd suggest that maybe folks were hoping for a scoring star and have already penciled Watson in as a future third-line tweener guy, therefore WAHHHH.

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02-04-2011, 09:35 PM
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Originally Posted by JR303 View Post
Hey, guys, thanks for putting up with me today. I've been in a really, really foul mood today and this same old crap about drafting and Poile's ineffectiveness just hit a nerve. sorry.

I went back and re-read my first post, and I can see where I came across as saying DEt was lucky with their picks, but I meant that as that was something that people have said to me. Sorry for the confusion. I don't think it's really fair to call the lucky for drafting an off the radar guy with talent, and then turning him into a top tier player, I honestly think it's a situation of being able to provide the exact perfect method of development for that particular player. I imagine that if you switch the drafts of Erat and Datsyuk, they would almost be the exact same player the other is right now. I think each is a product of the environment in which they evolved as players.

You know, all this would fee a lot less important if they could just go out and wax Detroit's ass tomorrow.
I didn't take your post at all as saying Detroit was lucky with their picks. I understood where you were coming from in saying you get lucky with picks after a certain point in the draft. Anything really after the first round is lucky if they pan out. Isn't something like 30% of second rounders make it? It may be even lower than that. There are no guarantees and there is some luck involved. Heck, did Poile think Rinne was going to pan out to be the goalie he's become? If he did, he would've taken him sooner.

It's a crapshoot at best.

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02-04-2011, 10:31 PM
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Okay so our 1st round picks haven't been all busts but we have not made up any ground on the forward side in the later rounds. BFC had a great post about drafting all these 3rd/4th liners. And that is what we have. I do fault Poile and the scouts for not finding some better diamonds in the rough. I fault our development system for not developing the offensive skills of the players we do have. And the guys for passing more often than shooting. There should be some kind of "penalty" for passing on an open shot.

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02-04-2011, 11:29 PM
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
No its not publisized information, its info on a need to know basis.

Here is a newsflash for you, Nashville operates on a more limited budget that Detroit does, Detroit has won 3 cups in the last 20 years, so they can afford to invest on scouting in obsecure countrries.
So you're telling me you have no idea what the various scouting budgets are around the league. Thanks, thats all I need to know. You are simply guessing that Nashville's scouting budget is less than average NHL team.

Sweden is also not an obscure country, and we do have scouts who cover that area.

I know when we first got the team, one of the core "philosophies" was to invest is scouts. Paying scouts is pennies compared to paying high priced FAs.

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02-04-2011, 11:46 PM
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Originally Posted by JR303 View Post
So, while I get that it's easy to be negative and critical of the moves a team makes.
OP wants to evaluate Poile's drafting record. I said I think Poile's drafting has been average to slightly above average-- Better at dmen than forwards. Have to go back 17 years to find a Poile draft pick who's scored more than 30 goals. It's evaluating.

I will agree that some is luck when drafting 18 year olds in various leagues/country, however it's not a total crap-shoo (hence, hiring a scouting staff). But there are trends (especially when you have 20+ years to look at). Poile normally plays it safe at the draft, like he does with most things.

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02-05-2011, 06:02 AM
  #19
glenngineer
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Originally Posted by hockey diva View Post
Okay so our 1st round picks haven't been all busts but we have not made up any ground on the forward side in the later rounds. BFC had a great post about drafting all these 3rd/4th liners. And that is what we have. I do fault Poile and the scouts for not finding some better diamonds in the rough. I fault our development system for not developing the offensive skills of the players we do have. And the guys for passing more often than shooting. There should be some kind of "penalty" for passing on an open shot.
No offense to BFC but some of his analysis was off. Beck is not projected to be a 3rd or 4th line type. His stock has risen dramatically since he was a 3rd round pick of ours. Latta's stock has also gone up, maybe not to the extent of Beck but is projected to be a decent player. Both their offensive numbers say otherwise. Beck projects to be a Shane Doan type. If you're not familiar with Doan, he's a top 3 forward on Phoenix. I've also watched the kid in camp the last few years and he was quite impressive. He shoots the puck, something we sorely lack.

Budish has been kind of a disappointment but is it on Poile for drafting a kid who blew out a knee while playing and then blew out his other knee in a freak scooter accident? If he makes it back from injury, he's a big kid that can skate and has soft hands. 230 lb forwards with skill don't grow on trees so hopefully he makes it.

All the talk about Watson being a bust is a joke. How does anyone know how he's going to pan out? He started off slow this season compared to the end of last year but also plays for a horrible team. He's picked it up as of late so he seems to be turning it around.

A diamond in the rough pick was Cehlin. Reminds me a lot of Erat. While not an upper end talent, he sure seems to have the talent to be a good second liner. This is from seeing him in camp and hearing what he's been doing overseas lately.

The other thing you're missing in analyzing any of our forwards is something JR and myself have been trying to get across to people. The Detroit guys walked in to a team where they had a chance to develop under some of the greatest players in history. Having a guy like Yzerman to learn from is invaluable. Having guys on the team that can mentor you day in and day out is amazing. I do agree with you that Trotz doesn't always get the best offensively out of our forwards but he does get a solid team effort from all our guys for the most part. I'd like more consistency out of the team to be honest.

For what it's worth, I'm not saying I'm the be all knowledge king of the Preds and their prospects and wasn't knocking BFC but I think some of his post that you were referring to were wrong of off base. That's all.

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02-05-2011, 07:47 AM
  #20
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
So you're telling me you have no idea what the various scouting budgets are around the league. Thanks, thats all I need to know. You are simply guessing that Nashville's scouting budget is less than average NHL team.
I never said Nashville's scouting budget was less than the league average. I said its less than Detroit's.

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02-05-2011, 09:39 AM
  #21
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
No offense to BFC but some of his analysis was off. Beck is not projected to be a 3rd or 4th line type. His stock has risen dramatically since he was a 3rd round pick of ours. Latta's stock has also gone up, maybe not to the extent of Beck but is projected to be a decent player. Both their offensive numbers say otherwise. Beck projects to be a Shane Doan type. If you're not familiar with Doan, he's a top 3 forward on Phoenix. I've also watched the kid in camp the last few years and he was quite impressive. He shoots the puck, something we sorely lack.

Budish has been kind of a disappointment but is it on Poile for drafting a kid who blew out a knee while playing and then blew out his other knee in a freak scooter accident? If he makes it back from injury, he's a big kid that can skate and has soft hands. 230 lb forwards with skill don't grow on trees so hopefully he makes it.

All the talk about Watson being a bust is a joke. How does anyone know how he's going to pan out? He started off slow this season compared to the end of last year but also plays for a horrible team. He's picked it up as of late so he seems to be turning it around.

A diamond in the rough pick was Cehlin. Reminds me a lot of Erat. While not an upper end talent, he sure seems to have the talent to be a good second liner. This is from seeing him in camp and hearing what he's been doing overseas lately.

The other thing you're missing in analyzing any of our forwards is something JR and myself have been trying to get across to people. The Detroit guys walked in to a team where they had a chance to develop under some of the greatest players in history. Having a guy like Yzerman to learn from is invaluable. Having guys on the team that can mentor you day in and day out is amazing. I do agree with you that Trotz doesn't always get the best offensively out of our forwards but he does get a solid team effort from all our guys for the most part. I'd like more consistency out of the team to be honest.

For what it's worth, I'm not saying I'm the be all knowledge king of the Preds and their prospects and wasn't knocking BFC but I think some of his post that you were referring to were wrong of off base. That's all.
Actually, I never said anything about Beck being a 3rd liner. People are IMPLYING what I typed. These are the only things I will concretely say about Poile.

1) David Poile drafts like a stock broker. In the first round he drafts one position and they drafts a bunch in the other positions in the later rounds. He's playing the odds of the draft. THN provided analysis that the first round should be a lock for an NHLer and the 2nd round is 30% chance to make the NHL. Not be a star, not be a solid player, but MAKE the NHL.

Poile is playing the odds and trying his best to get one solid NHLer in the 1st round and then using the other rounds to get a second NHLer.

2) He drafts all-around players. Defensively strong forwards, offensively strong defensemen. My theory is that these players tend to be cheaper and with the right coach, Trotz, it can be successful. Nashville spreads the scoring through out the lines. Doing the math last year, I found that yes, Nashville's 1st line sucks compared to the 1st lines of other teams, but the offense from the 2-4th lines tends to even out the offense and the scoring from the defensemen pulls to par. The difference usually is the goalie.

3) Poile does not take enough chances in the 1st round, that tends to be his weakest. After that round he's money. Worst nailed it with his analysis that Poile earns his check with the European fliers he takes in the late rounds. Erat, Kārlis Skrastiņš, Lindback, Rinne. Guys who get drafted in the 7th 8th 9th rounds should not even sniff the NHL but these guys do.

Let's look at all the 1st rounders:

David Legwand: Concensus #2 behind Vinny

Brian Finley: Bust

Scott Hartnell: Best fro in the NHL, Consistent 20 goal scorer

Dan Hamhuis: Solid #2 Defenseman

Scottie Upshall: Oft-Injuried, 15-18 goal scorer

Ryan Suter: Yeah, do I have to go any further?

Alexander Radulov: Would be phenomenal if his priorities were right

Ryan Parent: Oft-injured player who got Nashville the Spare parts we need.

2006: No pick

Jon Blum: I think he's on his way to becoming spare parts fodder. I believe on the Hamhuis track

Colin Wilson: Too early but on pace for 18 goals per THN.

Chet Pickard: Heading towards bust territory

Ryan Ellis: Canada's version of Tim Tebow. Will be interesting when he get to the NHL.

Austin Watson: Too early to tell.

1st round wise, unless it's a defenseman, Poile just doesn't draft forwards all that well. It's not his bread and butter. It all depends on your level of acceptable expectations for a 1st rounder. If you are looking to get a scoring phenom then your standards are too damned high. If you are looking for an NHLer who's going to play for 10-12 years, then that's about right.

You are not going to get that scoring phenom unless you have a top 5 pick or get lucky. Nashville has only had one pick that high and it was the Legwand draft. Imagine if Nashville WON the #1 pick that year and got Vinny?

Now, let's go with some perspective. What is a top line goal scorer? Well, last year the top 90 point producers scored 52 pts. When it came to goals, that number is 21.

Hornqvist and Sullivan came damn close point wise with 51. Goal wise. Hornqvist and Erat were in the top 90 with goals with 30 and 21.

My only complaint about Poile is the 1st round but the chances he took in the 1st round with the goalies and Radulov did not pay off.


Last edited by BigFatCat999: 02-05-2011 at 09:55 AM.
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02-05-2011, 10:00 AM
  #22
triggrman
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I never said Nashville's scouting budget was less than the league average. I said its less than Detroit's.
you can speculate, that's all you don't "know" anything concrete. Don't act like you have some inside information on it.

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02-05-2011, 11:10 AM
  #23
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BFC, like I've said to Dulz and anyone else around here, look at the 5 picks after Poile picked and tell me who he was supposed to pick? I think that is the biggest thing getting lost in translation. Did anyone ever think that there might not have been the talent available at the pick we had? The 2003 draft withstanding since basically every team scored, where did Poile mess up in the first round with his selections? I say 5 picks after as an example of what the next 5 teams selected and was probably within what Poile should've been picking from since he's conservative. Other than Hemsky in place of Hamhuis and maybe Zajac instead of Radulov, he picked the best player available for our team at the time. Some like Parent were busts because of injuries but the 5 guys selected after Parent faired no better or were borderline players.

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02-05-2011, 11:17 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
BFC, like I've said to Dulz and anyone else around here, look at the 5 picks after Poile picked and tell me who he was supposed to pick? I think that is the biggest thing getting lost in translation. Did anyone ever think that there might not have been the talent available at the pick we had? The 2003 draft withstanding since basically every team scored, where did Poile mess up in the first round with his selections? I say 5 picks after as an example of what the next 5 teams selected and was probably within what Poile should've been picking from since he's conservative. Other than Hemsky in place of Hamhuis and maybe Zajac instead of Radulov, he picked the best player available for our team at the time. Some like Parent were busts because of injuries but the 5 guys selected after Parent faired no better or were borderline players.
And all I'm saying is I wish he could hit better with the 1sts. I agree with you there wasn't much around.

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02-05-2011, 11:19 AM
  #25
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
I say 5 picks after as an example of what the next 5 teams selected and was probably within what Poile should've been picking from since he's conservative. Other than Hemsky in place of Hamhuis and maybe Zajac instead of Radulov, he picked the best player available for our team at the time. Some like Parent were busts because of injuries but the 5 guys selected after Parent faired no better or were borderline players.
I think Hemsky is more a "predators situation" than an obvious better choice; if we don't load up in the 03 draft with Dmen Hammer is still here as our 1st pair guy.

I think the analysis on the draft choices is pretty solid. Not even sure I buy the comments about Poile doing better with D than F, since as noted, other than Hemsky, their aren't even any good picks overlooked.

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