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Ok someone help me out...

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Old
07-13-2005, 01:08 PM
  #1
ATG
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Ok someone help me out...

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature.asp?fid=7314

So what are the chances the leafs pick first?

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Old
07-13-2005, 01:19 PM
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ULF_55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexander the Great
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature.asp?fid=7314

So what are the chances the leafs pick first?
What way did you come in...


I think it is one in 48, Mess knows.

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07-13-2005, 01:19 PM
  #3
Mess
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexander the Great
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature.asp?fid=7314

So what are the chances the leafs pick first?
Buf 3
CBJ 3
NYR 3
Pit 3
Ana 2
Atl 2
Cgy 2
Car 2
Chi 2
Edm 2
LAK 2
Min 2
Nsh 2
Phx 2
Bos 1
Col 1
Dal 1
Det 1
Fla 1
Mtl 1
NJD 1
NYI 1
Ott 1
Phi 1
Stl 1
SJS 1
Tam 1
Tor 1
Van 1
Wsh 1

48 balls total

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Old
07-13-2005, 01:20 PM
  #4
Leaf Army
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexander the Great
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature.asp?fid=7314

So what are the chances the leafs pick first?
That gives the Leafs about a 2% chance of winning. The most any team will have is about a 6% chance.

But a poster named PecaFan created a draft simulator which is pretty fun. Now that we know how the lottery will actually work, we can try a few test runs.

http://members.shaw.ca/vorpalbunnies/draftsim/

I just did one and Dallas ended up with the first pick. Leafs got number 13.

I simmed it 36 times before the Leafs ended up with the first overall.

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07-13-2005, 01:22 PM
  #5
ULF_55
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Best darns odds since about 1985.

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Old
07-13-2005, 01:23 PM
  #6
Mess
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Army
That gives the Leafs about a 2% chance of winning. The most any team will have is about a 6% chance.

But a poster named PecaFan created a draft simulator which is pretty fun. Now that we know how the lottery will actually work, we can try a few test runs.

http://members.shaw.ca/vorpalbunnies/draftsim/

I just did one and Dallas ended up with the first pick. Leafs got number 13.

I simmed it 36 times before the Leafs ended up with the first overall.
Leafs lucky number 13 ..

Mats number pretty fitting

What are the odds that happens again when the real draft happens??

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07-13-2005, 01:28 PM
  #7
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Well, at least chances of an improvement compared to our position according to our finish in 04 seem pretty favorable. Combine this with a nice pool of prospects and we should end up with a nice player

Washington and Florida fans are probably not happy about this though, even though I like the #1 pick deduction myself. Basically builds in 'protection' against teams who recently tanked on purpose right before the lockout, and those who have had a nice amount of picks recently.

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07-13-2005, 01:33 PM
  #8
ULF_55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaf Army
I just did one and Dallas ended up with the first pick. Leafs got number 13.

I simmed it 36 times before the Leafs ended up with the first overall.
Ditto.

Probably about 5 times #30, lots of times 20-23, lots of times 26-28, multiple low teens, and probably about 5 times 2-5.

I stopped after getting first overall.

Majority of results in the 20's.

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07-13-2005, 02:08 PM
  #9
Pulfy14
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I would be happy if they could get in the top 15 picks

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Old
07-13-2005, 02:13 PM
  #10
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I like this one:

Draft Order:
1. Tor ( 2.0%) 2. Fla ( 6.0%) 3. Edm ( 4.3%) 4. Tam ( 2.2%) 5. Dal ( 2.3%) 6. NYR ( 7.0%) 7. Phx ( 5.0%) 8. Wsh ( 2.6%) 9. Det ( 2.7%)10. Col ( 2.8%)11. Pit ( 8.6%)12. Ana ( 6.3%)13. NYI ( 3.3%)14. Buf ( 10.3%)15. CBJ ( 11.5%)16. Chi ( 8.7%)17. Stl ( 4.8%)18. Mtl ( 5.0%)19. Atl ( 15.8%)20. Min ( 6.3%)21. Van ( 6.7%)22. LAK ( 14.3%)23. SJS ( 8.3%)24. NJD ( 9.1%)25. Cgy ( 20.0%)26. Bos ( 12.5%)27. Car ( 28.6%)28. Nsh ( 40.0%)29. Phi ( 66.7%)30. Ott (100.0%)

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Old
07-13-2005, 02:40 PM
  #11
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that's funny, I did it and got 13 aswell. I would be happy picking in the top 15 to, I'm just curious what they mean by snaking the draft, does that mean that the team that picks first in the first round would pick 60th or whatever in the second?

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07-13-2005, 02:42 PM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiedaeagle20
that's funny, I did it and got 13 aswell. I would be happy picking in the top 15 to, I'm just curious what they mean by snaking the draft, does that mean that the team that picks first in the first round would pick 60th or whatever in the second?
Correct on the snake draft. It would suck for the Leafs if we got a late pick since we don't have a 2nd or 4th (i.e. the snake would be of no benefit).

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Old
07-13-2005, 02:44 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by think/blue
Correct on the snake draft. It would suck for the Leafs if we got a late pick since we don't have a 2nd or 4th (i.e. the snake would be of no benefit).
I would like to see JFJ attempt to pick up some more picks, if possible, however, I doubt it will be that easy, since drafting is likely to be more important in this new CBA.

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Old
07-13-2005, 02:57 PM
  #14
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Anyone know what team's, if any, have traded away their 1st round pick?

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Old
07-13-2005, 02:59 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by think/blue
Correct on the snake draft. It would suck for the Leafs if we got a late pick since we don't have a 2nd or 4th (i.e. the snake would be of no benefit).
I have heard rumours that all prior trades of picks are post phoned 1 year to take effect.. The special snake draft and only 7 rounds instead of 9 (as usual) may play a factor ..

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Old
07-13-2005, 03:00 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by akiberg
Anyone know what team's, if any, have traded away their 1st round pick?
Zero teams have traded it away as of today

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Old
07-13-2005, 03:11 PM
  #17
ULF_55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
I have heard rumours that all prior trades of picks are post phoned 1 year to take effect.. The special snake draft and only 7 rounds instead of 9 (as usual) may play a factor ..
You big kidder you!!

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Old
07-13-2005, 06:29 PM
  #18
timlap
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
I have heard rumours that all prior trades of picks are post phoned 1 year to take effect.. The special snake draft and only 7 rounds instead of 9 (as usual) may play a factor ..
Post phoned?

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