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Phillies' Baseball (MLB): Happy Halladays and a Merry Cliffmas!

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Old
02-02-2011, 09:29 AM
  #276
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I'd be pretty ecstatic with anything in the .280 range as a rookie. What I'd like to see go up a bit are the HR and RBI totals. HRs he has some control over, RBIs is a bit more team dependent and where he ends up in the order.
Yeah, I'm curious where he's going to bat. I'm thinking 7th. Probably something along the lines of this:

JRoll
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Victorino
Ibanez
Brown
Ruiz
[INSERT ACE HERE]

Not sure if Victorino actually will bat 5th, I just think he may in order to break up all the lefties.

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02-02-2011, 09:30 AM
  #277
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I'd be pretty ecstatic with anything in the .280 range as a rookie. What I'd like to see go up a bit are the HR and RBI totals. HRs he has some control over, RBIs is a bit more team dependent and where he ends up in the order.
I don't know if they made it into this thread, but I saw Bill James project him for something more like 22/90. I'd be thrilled at that.

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02-02-2011, 09:32 AM
  #278
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Yeah, I'm curious where he's going to bat. I'm thinking 7th. Probably something along the lines of this:

JRoll
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Victorino
Ibanez
Brown
Ruiz
[INSERT ACE HERE]

Not sure if Victorino actually will bat 5th, I just think he may in order to break up all the lefties.
The one thing to consider is that we will have Francisco on the bench, and I think he'll get more ABs this year (should, anyway). So, that'll give you a guy to plug in when necessary to break up the lefties.

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02-02-2011, 09:34 AM
  #279
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Originally Posted by CantSeeColors View Post
I don't know if they made it into this thread, but I saw Bill James project him for something more like 22/90. I'd be thrilled at that.
17 HR seems light if he hits .278 with any pop in CBP over a 140 GP season. RBIs will depend a bit on where he is in the lineup... so can't worry over that too much. If he's hitting 5/6 for any stretch of the year, he should be able to pick up some good numbers... lower it obviously gets tougher since the bases get cleared out before they get to you.

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02-02-2011, 09:38 AM
  #280
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17 HR seems light if he hits .278 with any pop in CBP over a 140 GP season. RBIs will depend a bit on where he is in the lineup... so can't worry over that too much. If he's hitting 5/6 for any stretch of the year, he should be able to pick up some good numbers... lower it obviously gets tougher since the bases get cleared out before they get to you.
I could see 17 HRs for him to be honest. It took him a long time to turn his doubles into homers in the minors. If it takes him almost the full season to get completely square on big league pitching it could sap his power a bit. If he hits around .280 I wouldn't complain about power as we know it's in there somewhere.

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02-02-2011, 09:40 AM
  #281
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Originally Posted by CantSeeColors View Post
I could see 17 HRs for him to be honest. It took him a long time to turn his doubles into homers in the minors. If it takes him almost the full season to get completely square on big league pitching it could sap his power a bit. If he hits around .280 I wouldn't complain about power as we know it's in there somewhere.
I would be curious what the park factors were in the minors... obviously doubles can become HRs in CBP with ease, especially when you hit July-September.

And, yeah, if he hits .280, we're talking gravy. Especially given the general consensus that he's pure tools right now, and in need of a lot of seasoning still.

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02-02-2011, 09:48 AM
  #282
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I would be curious what the park factors were in the minors... obviously doubles can become HRs in CBP with ease, especially when you hit July-September.

And, yeah, if he hits .280, we're talking gravy. Especially given the general consensus that he's pure tools right now, and in need of a lot of seasoning still.
Park factors would be interesting. I know the International League is the less hitter friendly of the AAA leagues, but I can't give you more than that. I expect a solid season out of the guy that gets him on the ROY ballot but not really in the discussion for winning it. If they shelter him from lefties (mistake imo, but I think they will) hitting .280 should be in the picture.

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02-02-2011, 09:55 AM
  #283
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Park factors would be interesting. I know the International League is the less hitter friendly of the AAA leagues, but I can't give you more than that. I expect a solid season out of the guy that gets him on the ROY ballot but not really in the discussion for winning it. If they shelter him from lefties (mistake imo, but I think they will) hitting .280 should be in the picture.
I hate when they do this with young hitters that are grooming for everyday spots. What I think they should do is give Francisco 80 or so starts, and take evenly from Brown and Ibanez -- both of whom could probably use the rest (Ibanez for age reasons, and Brown for endurance reasons).

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02-02-2011, 11:05 AM
  #284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I hate when they do this with young hitters that are grooming for everyday spots. What I think they should do is give Francisco 80 or so starts, and take evenly from Brown and Ibanez -- both of whom could probably use the rest (Ibanez for age reasons, and Brown for endurance reasons).
Yeah I agree. Francisco I think will hit average-wise right around where Ibanez and Brown will hit. He'll probably be 10 points less or so, but nothing shocking. He just doesn't have the power that Ibanez and Brown have. He is a better fielder than Ibanez though. I think he was a good pick up by the Phills in the Lee deal. He's a solid 4th outfielder to have.

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02-02-2011, 11:08 AM
  #285
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Yeah I agree. Francisco I think will hit average-wise right around where Ibanez and Brown will hit. He'll probably be 10 points less or so, but nothing shocking. He just doesn't have the power that Ibanez and Brown have. He is a better fielder than Ibanez though. I think he was a good pick up by the Phills in the Lee deal. He's a solid 4th outfielder to have.
If we were to pick without minding the pitchers, sure... but given that the majority of his starts would (presumably) be against lefty pitchers, you'd be looking at a platoon split that would probably come out in Francisco's favor (I would hope).

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02-02-2011, 12:13 PM
  #286
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I hate when they do this with young hitters that are grooming for everyday spots. What I think they should do is give Francisco 80 or so starts, and take evenly from Brown and Ibanez -- both of whom could probably use the rest (Ibanez for age reasons, and Brown for endurance reasons).
Couldn't agree more. Brown needs to learn how to hit major league lefties at some point and he's never shown a particular weakness with them in the minors. If he still can't hit them come September and things are tight, yeah, go with a straight up platoon and let him work out the kinks next year, but until then he needs the reps.

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02-02-2011, 02:37 PM
  #287
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Hopefully J Roll can have his second best year behind 07, brcause if he does their is nothing stopping this team ( unless injuries or a brad lidge meltdown).

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Old
02-02-2011, 05:07 PM
  #288
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Hopefully J Roll can have his second best year behind 07, brcause if he does their is nothing stopping this team ( unless injuries or a brad lidge meltdown).
I have a similar feeling. I honestly worry more about injuries to the starting 5 than the everyday players or a Lidge meltdown. They had the injury bug bite hard last year, and Lidge looked good enough last year after his abysmal 2009 showing. I don't think either of those things happen, and if they do, not as bad. Of course, there's no guarantee to anything even with a healthy squad and a solid J-Roll as we know from recent history, but they're much more formidable.

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Old
02-03-2011, 04:22 PM
  #289
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
17 HR seems light if he hits .278 with any pop in CBP over a 140 GP season. RBIs will depend a bit on where he is in the lineup... so can't worry over that too much. If he's hitting 5/6 for any stretch of the year, he should be able to pick up some good numbers... lower it obviously gets tougher since the bases get cleared out before they get to you.
Heyward hit .277 and only knocked out 18 homers, and Brown is probably not going to hit like Heyward.

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02-03-2011, 04:33 PM
  #290
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Originally Posted by dawkins121 View Post
Heyward hit .277 and only knocked out 18 homers, and Brown is probably not going to hit like Heyward.
Difference between hitting in Atlanta, and hitting in CBP.

HR per game
2010: 1.125 to 1.023
2009: 1.005 to 0.861
2008: 1.022 to 1.014
2007: 1.418 to 0.955

Heyward was also dinged up with a thumb injury and spent some time on the DL.

I'm not expecting a 30 HR season from him, but would expect 20+ if he was the everyday RF'er in CBP.

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02-03-2011, 05:09 PM
  #291
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Heyward was also dinged up with a thumb injury and spent some time on the DL.

I'm not expecting a 30 HR season from him, but would expect 20+ if he was the everyday RF'er in CBP.
This is what I came in to say. He wasn't just dinged up, that thumb injury kinda botched the rest of his year. If he stayed healthy, it wouldn't be overzealous to say he would've outpaced his final line. What he put up avg/HR wise might be reasonable to expect out of Brown if he's not treated like a god damn baby.

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02-03-2011, 05:14 PM
  #292
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This is what I came in to say. He wasn't just dinged up, that thumb injury kinda botched the rest of his year. If he stayed healthy, it wouldn't be overzealous to say he would've outpaced his final line. What he put up avg/HR wise might be reasonable to expect out of Brown if he's not treated like a god damn baby.
Yeah. Heyward had 10 HR in the first two months last year, and then 8 the rest of the way... only 1 in June/July. He hit for very good average the rest of the way, but the HR power dropped off considerably (which was likely due to both the thumb and pitchers getting a book on him).

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02-04-2011, 09:17 AM
  #293
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Just to add to the Heyward =/= Brown sentiment...

The first major league pitch Heyward ever saw was game 1 of last season, Brown has a shortened major league season + playoffs under his belt. While this may not seem like a huge deal, it gave Brown some knowledge going into his offseason training regimen that Heyward did not have on what to prepare for.

If Brown outproduces Heyward's rookie year (assuming he plays more than in a platoon role) I wouldn't be surprised, but it also doesn't mean that Brown > Heyward.

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02-07-2011, 09:47 AM
  #294
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DFF, to go back to the ETA of all these prospects, you might want to read the latest post on PhuturePhillies: http://phuturephillies.com/2011/02/0...r-2011-part-1/. Colvin's ETA is 2013 with a possible cup of coffee in 2012. Check back tomorrow and I'm sure you'll see the same for the next batch of last year's Lakewood team. The notable exception is Singleton due to his age, but even he's projected at 2-3 years out.

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02-07-2011, 11:48 AM
  #295
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So far the O's have signed JJ Hardy, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, and now they sign Vlad Guerrero. My AL team is starting to get me excited for baseball season.

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02-07-2011, 12:38 PM
  #296
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So far the O's have signed JJ Hardy, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, and now they sign Vlad Guerrero. My AL team is starting to get me excited for baseball season.
They should at least be interesting to watch, even if it turns into a trainwreck.

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02-07-2011, 12:42 PM
  #297
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Whatever else might be the case, you're going to want to start your pitchers against the O's if you're looking for some Ks. Reynolds is the epitome of the swing as hard as you can and hope it works out hitter.

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02-07-2011, 01:49 PM
  #298
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So far the O's have signed JJ Hardy, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, and now they sign Vlad Guerrero. My AL team is starting to get me excited for baseball season.
I dunno man, they might win the 2006 World Series this year with that lineup.

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02-07-2011, 01:55 PM
  #299
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I dunno man, they might win the 2006 World Series this year with that lineup.
That was my immediate reaction, but I wasn't going to go down that path... I feel bad for everyone in the AL East.

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02-07-2011, 02:16 PM
  #300
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I dunno man, they might win the 2006 World Series this year with that lineup.
You apparently missed how bad they were last year. Even if they're fairly washed up, they're a lot less washed up than Kevin Millwood. They'll still at least provide some life in the team and help the youngsters learn.

They're in no way going to make the playoffs, but it's a step in the right direction.

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