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ATD 2011 Draft Thread III

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Old
02-07-2011, 01:13 PM
  #76
TheDevilMadeMe
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Good to see Delvecchio go 3rd, yes. But I'm still not convinced Abel was better than Ullman. There's so much, perhaps more, out there that supports Ullman's non-offense skills. While they have the same peak offensive value, Ullman has significantly more longevity in that regard, and in a better era too (not in and directly following WW2).

From there we get to linemates and I know it's an ongoing debate but IMO Ullman probably had a tougher time being a 2nd line center behind Howe's line, with scrub linemates and facing lesser checkers, than he would have had being a 1st line center with Howe for a linemate, facing top checkers.
Abel is behind the other two in elite longevity, but he did lose several years to WW2. Hard to quantify it though, as he didn't become elite until the year before the war.

Abel was also considered the most valuable member of the Production Line when it was first put together (both in Hart voting and anecdotes). This is before Howe really exploded.

Abel is definitely ahead of Ullman in leadership and playoffs, and is likely ahead in physical play as well. Both seem to be "very good, not elite" defensively. Edit: Maybe Ullman was better. he seems to have always been a two-way center, while everything I found on Abel talked about how good he was defensively later in his career.

The one decisive thing Ullman has over Abel is longevity, so I guess it depends on how much you weight it.

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02-07-2011, 01:21 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Hedberg View Post
I can't get behind this "remove Europeans" idea. Maybe I could see "remove Russians (and some Czechs)", but the other Europeans were always free to come to the NHL, they're development just wasn't as good.
Yes, they were always free to come over. But they just weren't good enough to. I like looking at the league without Euros, as a reminder of how much harder it is to compete for high finishes. For instance, competition for RW all-star spots got incredibly tougher from the 80s to the 90s, but it was driven entirely by European players.


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Using the "remove Europeans" logic, you should probably remove Americans too considering there were hardly any impact Americans in the NHL until the 1980s.
Probably. Regardless, it doesn't really affect Brodeur, Niedermayer, or Crosby. Chelios and Leetch were the only recent US-born players to regularly compete for awards, though there have been Americans to compete for finishes.

I agree that this is nothing approaching an exact science, so it won't fit in any formula.

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02-07-2011, 01:23 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Honestly, does anyone here actually care that Niedermayer won the Memorial Cup and World Jr. title?
I think it's funny that Niedermayer is the only great player who gets his junior career used as a positive. It's not like he was an all-time great junior player, either.

Someone in the HOH section, I think it was Big Phil, brought up Niedermayer's junior career in a Niedermayer vs Mark Howe argument. Mark Howe was one of the best teenage hockey players ever.

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02-07-2011, 01:25 PM
  #79
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Hey guys, we should probably pick up for matsblue and all of the new GMs and make sure that everybody gets PMed. I didn't get one, which doesn't matter because I'm here, but we should just watch out for that.

Anyway, the Gwinnett Gladiators are very pleased to select center/right wing/defenseman Hooley Smith.

Smith will play right wing on the Boucher line for us, where his great speed, physicality and tenacity, defensive game and all-around offense will make him a key cog in the Gwinnett machine. A few facts on Smith, as he is somewhat lesser-known than the top-100 players.

Scoring finishes:

Goals: 4th, 7th, 10th, 10th, 13th, 15th, 15th

Assists: 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 6th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 11th, 11th, 18th

Points: 4th, 4th, 6th, 8th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 16th

As these scoring credentials should make clear, Hooley was rarely an elite scorer in the league, but he was a very good, well-rounded offensive player for quite a long time, before switching to the blueline for the last few seasons of his career. Smith is also among the leaders in Hart trophy voting in the pre-war period. Here are the leading Hart trophy vote-getters for the period before 1941 (sorted by top-5 Hart finishes):

Shore: 8 (1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th)
Clancy: 5 (3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 5th)
Morenz: 4 (1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd)
xxxxxxx: 4 (1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th)
Stewart: 3 (1st, 1st, 5th)
Joliat: 3 (1st, 5th, 5th)
Smith: 3 (2nd, 4th, 4th)
...and a bunch of guys tied at 2

Smith also spent time at defense even during his prime offensive years, being mentioned as a defenseman as early as 1927 (in the beginning of his career). From the New York Times - October 18, 1927 (it is unfortunately a Times article, so I can't post a link that everyone can read):

Quote:
Life Ban on xxxxxx, Hockey Star, Stands; Also Hooley Smith's 30-Day Suspension

Suspension meted out to xxxxxxx of the Boston Bruins and Hooley Smith, star of the Ottawa world champions hockey team, will not be lightened, governors of the National Hockey League decided in a meeting here today.

xxxxxx was suspended for life and Smith for thirty days following the last game of the championship at Ottawa last year, when the two players engaged in a fist fight. The governors, representing every club in the league outside of Ottawa, who met here in connection with the formal opening of the Olympia Stadium, adopted a new rule regarding holdouts. They decided players failing to report to their clubs on the date ordered would be suspended without pay by the league.

Smith, who is considered one of the greatest stars in the game, was purchased recently by the Montreal team. It is reported that the Maroons paid Ottawa $22,500 for him in addition to the contract of xxxxxxx, a Maroon star. Smith is noted for his versatility on the ice and is a brilliant performer at right wing, centre or on defense.
Smith will play a somewhat unique role on the Gladiators, rotating down to pick up what would normally be a defenseman's check along the boards in the defensive zone, freeing up Paul Coffey to play up high and pressure the point. Smith's great strength and aggressiveness combined with his long experience on defense make him ideal for this role (and maybe the only legitimate scoringline forward who can fill it), and allow Gwinnett to relieve Coffey of duties in the weakest area of his game.

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Old
02-07-2011, 01:26 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by overpass View Post

Regarding Niedermayer, I thought Sabre had a point about the era. Niedermayer may have been better suited for the 80s game than the 90s/00s game.
Okay, you're right. This is a good point. Niedermayer's skating game very well could have been better in the 1980s.

But asking whether he would approach Coffey-levels is going too far. Way too far. Mark Howe was a great skater too, and he didnt' approach Coffey levels of offense.

Niedermayer wasn't even good enough to QB the Devils' first PP unit until later in his career.

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02-07-2011, 01:29 PM
  #81
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Hooley Smith just keeps going earlier and earlier. Which makes sense - very few players at this point combine his speed, aggression, defense, and playmaking, particularly those who are capable playing wing. I briefly flirted with using him as a center for the Rocket (not at pick 70, but eventually).

My only issue with Smith is that he definitely seems to be one of the least disciplined players in the draft (the downside to his aggression).

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02-07-2011, 01:30 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Abel is behind the other two in elite longevity, but he did lose several years to WW2. Hard to quantify it though, as he didn't become elite until the year before the war.

Abel was also considered the most valuable member of the Production Line when it was first put together (both in Hart voting and anecdotes). This is before Howe really exploded.

Abel is definitely ahead of Ullman in leadership and playoffs, and is likely ahead in physical play as well. Both seem to be "very good, not elite" defensively.

The only thing I can see Ullman ahead on is longevity.
- Abel seemed elite in 1942, then dropped off considerably in 1943 for some reason. Like a lot of guys he missed 1944 and 1945, and even if he didn't, we wouldn't conclude much from those seasons. Unfortunately, he missed 1946 too, and that would have been a great chance for us to see what he could do at that age in a (mostly) stocked league. In 1947 and 1948 he scored at a pretty good rate while the league recovered.

- In 1949, was he more valuable than Howe? Howe scored at the same per-game pace; maybe that's all that prevented a lot of Detroit vote-splitting.

- Yes, the 1950 season is particularly interesting because Howe and Abel have basically the same stats; yet Abel got all the hart votes, finishing 4th. You are right that this is before Howe "exploded".

- Yes, they are likely equal defensively and Abel probably has a slight edge physically.

- Abel was 2nd in playoff scoring in 1943, 7th in 1949, 5th in 1950, 6th in 1951, and 8th in 1952. How is this more significant than Ullman's 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 6th? Yes he won 4 cups and that has to factor in somehow into career value, but was he better individually?

- Back to hart voting. Abel's complete line of high finishes is a 1st in 1949 and a 4th in 1950. Ullman was runner-up to Bobby Hull in 1965 and was 5th in 1966. This was after Howe "exploded" and was still going strong. Everyone who finished ahead of Ullman was a top-40 pick. He was also 9th in 1969, and 6 of the 8 ahead of him were top-40 picks. This is just as impressive a record in a vaccuum before you consider the differences in the player classes they were each competing in.

- Ullman doesn't have just longevity, he has an equivalent peak, too. Abel's five best points finishes are 2, 3, 4, 5, 8. Ullman's are 2, 3, 6, 6, 6. The gap really starts to form after those years. And again, this was in a tougher field.

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Old
02-07-2011, 01:30 PM
  #83
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Doug Bentley, LW/C

Listed at #72 on THN's top-100 list from 1997.

LOH:
Quote:
Doug played left wing and was known as a "complete" player. Although he weighed only 145 pounds during his heyday, he had tremendous speed and was a natural goal scorer. Six times he had 20 or more goals in a season, and in 1942-43 he led the NHL in points even though the team finished in fifth place and out of the playoffs. It was during that season that the Bentleys made history. Their youngest brother, Reggie, was called up from the minors and played 11 games with Doug and Max, the first time three brothers played as a complete forward line. Doug was also exciting to watch and frequently had more ice time than anyone else in the game. Because of his speed, he was one of the great backcheckers of his era as well.
Scoring Finishes (regular season)

Goals: 1, 1, 6
Assists: 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 9, 9
Points: 1, 2, 2, 3, 6, 7

Postseason All-Star Teams
1942-43 NHL NHL All-Star Team (1st)
1943-44 NHL NHL All-Star Team (1st)
1946-47 NHL NHL All-Star Team (1st)
1948-49 NHL NHL All-Star Team (2nd)

Note: At least one of Doug's big seasons, 1943-44, came in a war-weakened NHL.

In general, Doug was more of a goal-scorer while playing the wing and more of a playmaker while at centre. He left the NHL at the age of 35 to play and coach at home in Saskatchewan, although he was still capable of playing in the NHL.

Since we were discussing power play quarterbacks...

1954 (Doug was making his comeback to the NHL after 3 years off):
Quote:
The Leafs may have some trouble with Doug and Max Bentley, the two power-play experts who will be showing at the Gardens together for the first time since they were teammates with Chicago Black Hawks six years.

"Max is the greatest player at the point position on power plays that I've ever seen" says Hap Day, assistant general-manager of the Leafs. "Max and Doug together make up the two best point men in the business."


Last edited by overpass: 02-07-2011 at 01:56 PM.
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Old
02-07-2011, 01:32 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Hey guys, we should probably pick up for matsblue and all of the new GMs and make sure that everybody gets PMed. I didn't get one, which doesn't matter because I'm here, but we should just watch out for that.

Anyway, the Gwinnett Gladiators are very pleased to select center/right wing/defenseman Hooley Smith.

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Old
02-07-2011, 01:32 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Yes, they were always free to come over. But they just weren't good enough to. I like looking at the league without Euros, as a reminder of how much harder it is to compete for high finishes. For instance, competition for RW all-star spots got incredibly tougher from the 80s to the 90s, but it was driven entirely by European players.
Perhaps instead of just eliminating Euros or Americans or whatever, we can look at how much closer point finishes are now compared to past eras. Someone mentioned earlier that Mats Sundin and Alex Delvecchio were very similar offensively when you looked at what percentage they scored compared to the Art Ross winner.

The Art Ross winner may not be the best to look at because some of the freaks would really throw things off. Maybe we can compare the 20th place guy to the 5th place guy every year and see if a pattern develops in terms of them being closer to each other in modern times compared to past eras.

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Old
02-07-2011, 01:33 PM
  #86
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Everywhere I read, there's something raving about Smith's toughness, defense, and corner work. He's pretty much as good as you can get for a complementary 1st liner. I was actually pretty close to taking him.

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02-07-2011, 01:34 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by JohnnyD View Post
Perhaps instead of just eliminating Euros or Americans or whatever, we can look at how much closer point finishes are now compared to past eras. Someone mentioned earlier that Mats Sundin and Alex Delvecchio were very similar offensively when you looked at what percentage they scored compared to the Art Ross winner.

The Art Ross winner may not be the best to look at because some of the freaks would really throw things off. Maybe we can compare the 20th place guy to the 5th place guy every year and see if a pattern develops in terms of them being closer to each other in modern times compared to past eras.
it's all about league size, as that affects the number of first and 2nd line jobs in the league.

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02-07-2011, 01:46 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
it's all about league size, as that affects the number of first and 2nd line jobs in the league.
That is a good point, what if we adjusted these comparisons to league size?

For example: In a 6 team league you compare how the 10th place guy finishes in relation to the 5th place guy. In a 30 team league you compare how the 50th place guy finishes in relation to the 25th.

The example is too simple, but do you think the idea of it would work?

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02-07-2011, 01:46 PM
  #89
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Springfield will select a player who I consider to be very close to a top five playmaker of all time. C Adam Oates.

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02-07-2011, 01:59 PM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyD View Post
That is a good point, what if we adjusted these comparisons to league size?

For example: In a 6 team league you compare how the 10th place guy finishes in relation to the 5th place guy. In a 30 team league you compare how the 50th place guy finishes in relation to the 25th.

The example is too simple, but do you think the idea of it would work?
I'm not sure I follow. What would the endgame of this be?

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02-07-2011, 02:13 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Hooley Smith just keeps going earlier and earlier. Which makes sense - very few players at this point combine his speed, aggression, defense, and playmaking, particularly those who are capable playing wing. I briefly flirted with using him as a center for the Rocket (not at pick 70, but eventually).

My only issue with Smith is that he definitely seems to be one of the least disciplined players in the draft (the downside to his aggression).
Heh...you don't have the dirt that I do on a number of other star players from the prewar era. There was a lot of dirty hockey going around. Smith is only known for one serious incident of which I know, which occured when he was 24 and still playing in Ottawa. He speared xxxxxx in the face in game 5 (the final game) of the 1927 Cup Finals - the resulting punishment being the aforementioned 30 day suspension to begin the next season. Of course, the Sens won that game (and the Cup) and Hooley took an opponent with him (and then some...the guy was banned for life), so although it may have been dirty, it doesn't appear that his aggression in this case hurt his team. There is a difference between dirty and undisciplined.

Smith, it should be noted, also captained a Montreal Maroons team to the Stanley Cup. Leadership is another plus with him, as there are not many Cup-winning captains left out there at this point in the draft.

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02-07-2011, 02:19 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by hungryhungryhippy View Post
- An absolute monster in the playoffs, arguably the most dominant post-season player of his era
I highly disagree with this statement. Tremblay never won a Smythe, Beliveau did. Tremblay was top 10 in points among defensemen in the playoffs 6 times. Beliveau was top 10 points among all players 11 times.

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02-07-2011, 02:22 PM
  #93
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I highly disagree with this statement. Tremblay never won a Smythe, Beliveau did. Tremblay was top 10 in points among defensemen in the playoffs 6 times. Beliveau was top 10 points among all players 11 times.
Well you're comparing a forward to a defenseman there, so of course Beliveau's going to score better amongst all players. And Tremblay was pretty robbed of a Smythe once.

The fact that's it's 11 vs 6 is more telling.

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02-07-2011, 02:22 PM
  #94
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I'm not sure I follow. What would the endgame of this be?
I guess the end game would be to show that scoring finishes are not really the best way to compare players from different eras. Instead we should be looking at how that player is doing compared to some kind of league standard. What that standard is would be up for debate. A simple example might be to calculate the number of first liners and make the standard an average of whatever the 2-3 guys right in the middle scored (In the O6 it would be the 8th, 9th, and 10th place point totals, while today it would be the 44th, 45th, and 46th place point totals).

If peer comparison is the best way to rank players, isn't this a much more accurate picture of a players peers?

Here is how the original comparison I posted looks for years 60-62 and 08-10.

1959-60: 5th place: 73pts, 10th place: 66pts
1960-61: 5th place: 72pts, 10th place: 62pts
1961-62: 5th place: 71pts, 10th place: 62pts

2007-08: 25th place: 75pts, 50th place: 65pts
2008-09: 25th place: 75pts, 50th place: 65pts
2009-10: 25th place: 71pts, 50th place: 62pts


I know this is very simple, but doesn't this start to show that compared to his peers, the 50th place guy today is doing just as well as the 10th place guy back in the 60's (offensively at least)? They are both in the same percentile when compared to peers that play similar roles.

Note: Normally you would need to calculate the percentage difference for the above numbers, but since the raw numbers ended up being so close, I didn't think it was necessary to illustrate my point.

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02-07-2011, 02:26 PM
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
Well you're comparing a forward to a defenseman there, so of course Beliveau's going to score better amongst all players. And Tremblay was pretty robbed of a Smythe once.

The fact that's it's 11 vs 6 is more telling.
Tremblay was top 10 among defensemen only 6 times.

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02-07-2011, 02:30 PM
  #96
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Tremblay was top 10 among defensemen only 6 times.
I read that...but you can't hold the fact that Tremblay only got his top 10s amongst defenseman as opposed to all-players because he IS a defensemen, who don't tend to do well when looked at in an all-player leaderboard. We always compare forward offense to all players and defenseman to offense amongst defensemen- I don't know why you want to punish Tremblay for not scoring well amongst forwards.

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02-07-2011, 02:36 PM
  #97
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I guess my point is that HHH is pointing him out to be this ridiculously good playoff player, whereas Beliveau blows him out of the water 11-6. I'm not trying to punish him for not scoring well against players, I'm saying that in comparison to his relative position, Tremblay was top 10 6 times. In Beliveau's position, he was top 10 11 times. I think it's a pretty fair comparison.

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02-07-2011, 02:38 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by Leafs Forever View Post
I read that...but you can't hold the fact that Tremblay only got his top 10s amongst defenseman as opposed to all-players because he IS a defensemen, who don't tend to do well when looked at in an all-player leaderboard. We always compare forward offense to all players and defenseman to offense amongst defensemen- I don't know why you want to punish Tremblay for not scoring well amongst forwards.
Maybe because being top 10 amongst defensemen when players drop out every round because of elimination really isn't that impressive most of the time?

The 3 finishes against all players is much more impressive.

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02-07-2011, 02:40 PM
  #99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
I guess my point is that HHH is pointing him out to be this ridiculously good playoff player, whereas Beliveau blows him out of the water 11-6. I'm not trying to punish him for not scoring well against players, I'm saying that in comparison to his relative position, Tremblay was top 10 6 times. In Beliveau's position, he was top 10 11 times. I think it's a pretty fair comparison.
The problem is, scoring finishes are a much better indicator of a forward's performance than a defenseman's.

(Note: I am NOT saying Tremblay performed better than Beliveau)

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02-07-2011, 02:47 PM
  #100
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I guess my point is that HHH is pointing him out to be this ridiculously good playoff player, whereas Beliveau blows him out of the water 11-6. I'm not trying to punish him for not scoring well against players, I'm saying that in comparison to his relative position, Tremblay was top 10 6 times. In Beliveau's position, he was top 10 11 times. I think it's a pretty fair comparison.
That's fine; stress the 11-6. Your use of bold on "all players" and "amongst defenseman" suggests you were holding Tremblay's position against him is all.

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