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07-14-2005, 08:34 PM
  #1
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North-East Division Breakdown

The Boston Bruins


Likley UFAs:
Travis Green, Martin Lapointe, Dan McGillis, Glen Murray, Felix Potvin

Likely Trades/Buyouts:
None.

Likely Signings:
Two Top 6 Forward
One Bottom 6 Forward
One Top 4 D-Man

Likely 23-Man Roster:
F- Joe Thornton (RFA)
F- Sergei Samsonov (RFA)
F- Patrice Bergeron
F- Top 6 Forward
F- Top 6 Forward
F- P.J. Axelsson (RFA)
F- Andy Hilbert (RFA)
F- Tom Fitzgerald
F- Bottom 6 Forward
F- Brian Boyes
F- Martin Samuelsson
F- Ivan Huml
F- Sergei Zinovjev
D- Sergei Gonchar (UFA)
D- Nick Boynton
D- Top 4 D-man
D- Jonathan Girard (RFA)
D- Hal Gill (RFA)
D- Ian Moran
D- Milan Jurcina
G- Andrew Raycroft (RFA)
G- Hannu Toivonen

Likely LineUp:
UFA - Thornton - Boyes
Samsonov - Bergeron - UFA
Axelsson - UFA - Hilbert
Samuelsson - Zinovjev - Fitzgerald
*Huml

Gonchar - Boynton
UFA - Girard
Gill - Moran
*Jurcina

Raycroft - Toivonen

Point Prediction:
Forwards: B+
Defensemans: C
Goalies: B-
Point Prediction: 88


The Buffalo Sabres

Likley UFAs:
Alexei Zhitnik, James Patrick, Eric Boulton, Brian Campbell

Likely Trades/Buyouts:
Martin Biron (Trade)

Likely Signings:
Top 4 D-man (Zhitnik)

Likely 23-Man Roster:
F- Miroslav Satan (RFA)
F- Chris Drury
F- Daniel Briere (RFA)
F- Jochen Hecht (RFA)
F- Jean-Pierre Dumont (RFA)
F- Maxim Afinogenov (RFA)
F- Thomas Vanek
F- Ales Kotalik (RFA)
F- Mike Grier (RFA)
F- Derek Roy
F- Taylor Pyatt (RFA)
F- Tim Connolly (RFA)
F- Chris Taylor
D- Dmitri Kalinin (RFA)
D- Top 4 D-man
D- Jay McKee (RFA)
D- Jeff Jillson
D- Rory Fitzpatrick (RFA)
D- Henrik Tallinder (RFA)
D- Brad Brown (RFA)
G- Ryan Miller (RFA)
G- Mika Noronen

Likely LineUp:
Satan - Drury - Vanek
Hecht - Briere - Afinogenov
Dumont - Roy - Grier
Kotalik - Connolly - Pyatt
*Taylor

McKee - UFA
Kalinin - Jillson
Fitzpatrick - Brown
*Tallinder

Miller- Noronen

Point Prediction:
Forwards: B+
Defensemans: C
Goalies: C+
Point Prediction: 85


The Montreal Canadiens


Likley UFAs:
Pierre Dagenais, Niklas Sundstrom, Jim Dowd, Yannic Perreault, Karl Dykhuis, Gavin Morgan

Likely Trades/Buyouts:
None.

Likely Signings:
Top 6 forward (Kovalev)

Likely 23-Man Roster:
F- Saku Koivu (RFA)
F- Top 6 forward
F- Richard Zednik
F- Radek Bonk
F- Mike Ribeiro (RFA)
F- Michael Ryder (RFA)
F- Jan Bulis (RFA)
F- Jason Ward (RFA)
F- Alexander Perezhogin
F- Marcel Hossa (RFA)
F- Chris Higgins
F- Tomas Plekanec (RFA)
F- Steve Begin
D- Sheldon Souray
D- Andrei Markov (RFA)
D- Patrice Brisebois (UFA)
D- Craig Rivet
D- Mike Komisarek (RFA)
D- Francis Bouillon (RFA)
D- Ron Hainsey
G- Jose Theodore (RFA)
D- Cristobal Huet

Likely LineUp:
Zednik - Koivu - UFA
Perezhogin - Ribeiro - Ryder
Bulis - Bonk - Hossa
Higgins - Begin - Ward
*Plekanec

Souray - Brisebois
Markov - Komisarek
Hainsey - Rivet
*Bouillon

Theodore - Huet

Point Prediction:
Forwards: B+
Defensemans: B-
Goalies: A-
Point Prediction: 92



The Ottawa Senators

Likley UFAs:
Petr Bondra, Curtis Leschyshyn, Todd Simpson, Shaun Van Allen, Chris Neil, Julien Vauclair

Likely Trades/Buyouts:
Greg DeVries (Buyout)

Likely Signings:
Top 6 Forward
Bottom 6 Forward
3rd Pairing D-man

Likely 23-Man Roster:
F- Marian Hossa (RFA)
F- Daniel Alfredsson
F- Martin Havlat (RFA)
F- Top 6 forward
F- Jason Spezza (RFA)
F- Mike Fisher (RFA)
F- Bryan Smolinski
F- Todd White (RFA)
F- Vaclav Varada
F- Bottom 6 forward
F- Petr Schaeffer
F- Antoine Vermette (RFA)
F- Josh Langfeld (RFA)
D- Zdeno Chara
D- Wade Redden
D- Chris Phillips
D- Anton Volchenkov (RFA)
D- 3rd Pairing D-man
D- Brian Pothier
D- Christoph Schubert
G- Martin Prusek (RFA)
G- Dominik Hasek (UFA)


Likely LineUp:
Havlat - Spezza - Hossa
UFA - Fisher - Alfredsson
Schaeffer - Smolinski - UFA
Vermette - White - Varada
*Langfeld

Redden - Volchenkov
Chara - Phillips
UFA - Pothier
*Schubert

Hasek - Prusek

Point Prediction:
Forwards: A
Defensemans: A-
Goalies: B
Point Prediction: 105


The Toronto Maple Leafs


Likley UFAs:
Ron Francis, Brian Leetch, Bryan Marchment, Gary Roberts, Calle Johansson

Likely Trades/Buyouts:
Owen Nolan (Buyout)

Likely Signings:
Top 6 Forward (Lindros)
Bottom 6 Forward

Likely 23-Man Roster:
F- Mats Sundin
F- Top 6 forward
F- Alexander Mogilny (UFA)
F- Joe Nieuwendyk (UFA)
F- Nik Antropov (RFA)
F- Darcy Tucker
F- Matt Stajan
F- Alex Steen
F- Chad Kilger (RFA)
F- Bottom 6 Forward
F- Tie Domi (UFA)
F- Alex Ponikarovsky (RFA)
F- Kyle Wellwood
D- Bryan McCabe
D- Tomas Kaberle
D- Ken Klee
D- Carlo Colaiacovo
D- Aki Berg (RFA)
D- Wade Belak (RFA)
D- Karel Pilar
G- Ed Belfour
G- Mikael Tellqvist

Likely LineUp:
Steen - Sundin - UFA
Antropov - Nieuwendyk - Mogilny
Kilger - Stajan - Tucker
Ponikarovsky - Wellwood - Domi
*UFA

McCabe - Colaiacovo
Kaberle - Klee
Berg - Belak
*Pilar

Belfour - Tellqvist

Point Prediction:
Forwards: A-
Defensemans: B-
Goalies: B-
Point Prediction: 94


Division Standing:
01. Ottawa Senators 105
02. Toronto Maple Leafs 94
03. Montreal Canadiens 92
04. Boston Bruins 88
05. Buffalo Sabres 85


Dicuss!

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07-14-2005, 09:04 PM
  #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jozef Balej
The Toronto Maple Leafs


Likley UFAs:
Ron Francis, Brian Leetch, Bryan Marchment, Gary Roberts, Calle Johansson

Likely Trades/Buyouts:
Owen Nolan (Buyout)

Likely Signings:
Top 6 Forward (Lindros)
Bottom 6 Forward

Likely 23-Man Roster:
F- Mats Sundin
F- Top 6 forward
F- Alexander Mogilny (UFA)
F- Joe Nieuwendyk (UFA)
F- Nik Antropov (RFA)
F- Darcy Tucker
F- Matt Stajan
F- Alex Steen
F- Chad Kilger (RFA)
F- Bottom 6 Forward
F- Tie Domi (UFA)
F- Alex Ponikarovsky (RFA)
F- Kyle Wellwood
D- Bryan McCabe
D- Tomas Kaberle
D- Ken Klee
D- Carlo Colaiacovo
D- Aki Berg (RFA)
D- Wade Belak (RFA)
D- Karel Pilar
G- Ed Belfour
G- Mikael Tellqvist

Likely LineUp:
Steen - Sundin - UFA
Antropov - Nieuwendyk - Mogilny
Kilger - Stajan - Tucker
Ponikarovsky - Wellwood - Domi
*UFA

McCabe - Colaiacovo
Kaberle - Klee
Berg - Belak
*Pilar

Belfour - Tellqvist

Point Prediction:
Forwards: A-
Defensemans: B-
Goalies: B-
Point Prediction: 94
More likely UFA signings for the Maple Leafs: Two top 6 forwards (most likely going to be a player of Murray's stature and Lindros) and one bottom 6 forward. Top 4 defenseman (will most likely be high profile- like Aucoin or Foote).

D-corps could look like the following:
McCabe-Foote/Aucoin
Kaberle-Klee
Berg-Colaiacovo
*Pilar.

------

Offense could look like the following:
Tucker OR Roberts - Sundin - UFA (possibly Murray)
Antropov - UFA (Lindros or Allison) - Poni
Tucker OR Roberts - Stajan - Kilger
UFA - Wellwood - Domi

------

Goaltending will look like the following:

Belfour - Tellqvist

------

Based on this projected line-up, I'd give the forwards an A-, while most defensemen the Leafs have will excel with the stretch pass due to no red-line (Kaberle, McCabe, Berg). The defensive corps will also be defensively responsible (with the addition of Foote or Aucoin), leading me to give them an A-. Goaltending could be a problem but if Eddie manages to stay healthy I'll project A- to a high B+.

Likely North-East Standings:
Ottawa: 102
Toronto: 100 - The top two are interchangable.
Boston: 90
Montreal/Buffalo: 84-88.

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07-14-2005, 09:26 PM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crossroads
...
I think you forgot that the NHL has implemented a salary cap.. there's no way in hell the Leafs can carry Sundin's, Belfour's, Nieuwendyk's, Mogilny's, Lindros's, Murray's, McCabe's, Klee's etc.. contract.. Plus, they have to give spots to youngsters like Colaiacovo, Steen, Wellwood, Stajan etc.. So I think my assumptions are reasonable for the Leafs.

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07-14-2005, 09:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jozef Balej
I think you forgot that the NHL has implemented a salary cap.. there's no way in hell the Leafs can carry Sundin's, Belfour's, Nieuwendyk's, Mogilny's, Lindros's, Murray's, McCabe's, Klee's etc.. contract.. Plus, they have to give spots to youngsters like Colaiacovo, Steen, Wellwood, Stajan etc.. So I think my assumptions are reasonable for the Leafs.
Nieuwy is most likely gone.
Nolan is gone.
Lindros will most likely come at a VERY cheap price, with a contract that is full of benefits.
Mogilny has stated openly that he will return to the Leafs at a cheap price.

Nevertheless, the Leafs will most likely have 12-16 million to spend until they the reach the cap (39 million).

Most teams will not hit the ceiling (39 million) with their rosters. Most small-market teams will want to make even more money and will likely have very low payrolls (perhaps just above the floor). The big market teams will ALL have their payrolls at the ceiling.

In summary, the Leafs will be able to sign two top 6 forwards for 4-5 million and will have enough left to sign a great defenseman and a bottom 6 forward (if they do not fill that spot from within the system (Marlies)).

-EDIT- The Leaf cap room could increase with players restructuring their contracts (perhaps Sundin).

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07-14-2005, 09:43 PM
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Bonuses will be included in the amount of cap space you are allowed to take up. So Lindros wont come that cheap. Thats why Haseks salary isnt listed as 1.5 million his bonuses have been included.

Really good breakdown Balej, Neil will be in the sens lineup. Look for one of White to not be qualified or Smolinski to be bought out. I think a signing like a Gelinas, Roberts style left winger is likely for the sens. Chris Kelly will likely be the sens 4th line centerman.

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07-14-2005, 09:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bert
Bonuses will be included in the amount of cap space you are allowed to take up. So Lindros wont come that cheap. Thats why Haseks salary isnt listed as 1.5 million his bonuses have been included.

Really good breakdown Balej, Neil will be in the sens lineup. Look for one of White to not be qualified or Smolinski to be bought out. I think a signing like a Gelinas, Roberts style left winger is likely for the sens. Chris Kelly will likely be the sens 4th line centerman.
Thanks for the input man.

Oh and yeah, bonuses will count against the cap, and Sundin can't restructure his contract. The Leafs will not sign 3 high profile UFAs, that's imposible.

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07-14-2005, 10:04 PM
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Really good Beakdown Balej!

I`m I alone to think that Buffalo could make the playoff next year? I think they have a good young offensive that could surprise a lot of people with the new rules!

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07-14-2005, 10:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crossroads
-EDIT- The Leaf cap room could increase with players restructuring their contracts (perhaps Sundin).


havent read much of the deal

Quote:
Originally Posted by TSN.ca
Teams will not be allowed to re-structure existing player contracts in an attempt to fit a big salary under the cap
so eat Sundin and Belfour contract, and make it taste good with some BBQ sauce. Then Belfour, is he good enough after a year off? I think so, but I could be wrong.

I can't see the leafs making any strides this year for some key FAs, maybe a few, but not that many.

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07-14-2005, 10:28 PM
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That was a very cool breakdown, I loved it. Oddly enough, I agreed with you to an impossible extent..

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07-14-2005, 10:31 PM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crossroads
More likely UFA signings for the Maple Leafs: Two top 6 forwards (most likely going to be a player of Murray's stature and Lindros) and one bottom 6 forward. Top 4 defenseman (will most likely be high profile- like Aucoin or Foote).

D-corps could look like the following:
McCabe-Foote/Aucoin
Kaberle-Klee
Berg-Colaiacovo
*Pilar.

------

Offense could look like the following:
Tucker OR Roberts - Sundin - UFA (possibly Murray)
Antropov - UFA (Lindros or Allison) - Poni
Tucker OR Roberts - Stajan - Kilger
UFA - Wellwood - Domi

------

Goaltending will look like the following:

Belfour - Tellqvist

------

Based on this projected line-up, I'd give the forwards an A-, while most defensemen the Leafs have will excel with the stretch pass due to no red-line (Kaberle, McCabe, Berg). The defensive corps will also be defensively responsible (with the addition of Foote or Aucoin), leading me to give them an A-. Goaltending could be a problem but if Eddie manages to stay healthy I'll project A- to a high B+.

Likely North-East Standings:
Ottawa: 102
Toronto: 100 - The top two are interchangable.
Boston: 90
Montreal/Buffalo: 84-88.
Man I don't know where to start.
I think thats the 22 posters claiming that its their team to pick Aucoun.

Somehow Toronto will be able to get the same points and get under the cap ????????? I wish your team luck, your GM will be named top GM of the year and be carried around the rink by the players as they demand his instant induction to the hall of fame.

Boston at 90 points is a good bet but the Habs at 84-88 when last year at 93 and the Habs keep almost all the same club and add a top d or Kovalev + top rookies.

It's all moot, 1 month from now you will see what team your gm has been able to put together. And never forget, things have changed, If one or two of your top players are injured, there is no money to just go out and buy two more, those years are over.

Speed is going to be the top thing. With the new rules and the pick plays and clutch and grab plays outlawed, speedy players will fly.
Can you consider Sundin a speedy player ? Will your team have enough speedy players ? or will your top players look a little different if they cant hook,grab,pick ?
If your GM keeps too many older guys what is the effect in the third period if they have had to keep up with the other teams speedy guys.
The GM must put together the best team for the NEW RULES. Failure to factor in the new rules in favour of name brand players only, is a BIG GAMBLE.

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07-14-2005, 10:32 PM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey
That was a very cool breakdown, I loved it. Oddly enough, I agreed with you to an impossible extent..

Great minds thinks alike.

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07-14-2005, 10:38 PM
  #12
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I believe the Habs and the Sens will fight for the Division & Conference championship this year, and the loser of the battle will finish fourth in the conference.

I expect Leafs to finish 3rd, in the playoffs. BOS and BUF fight for #4, and another playoff spot, thanks to the extended playoff format. The team finishing 5th will probably finish 11th, just out of the playoffs.

I expect us VS New Jersey in the first round of the final 16, and then us VS Sens in the second round of that. And after that, how about a chance for revenge against the Bolts?

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07-14-2005, 11:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Parent
I believe the Habs and the Sens will fight for the Division & Conference championship this year, and the loser of the battle will finish fourth in the conference.

I expect Leafs to finish 3rd, in the playoffs. BOS and BUF fight for #4, and another playoff spot, thanks to the extended playoff format. The team finishing 5th will probably finish 11th, just out of the playoffs.

I expect us VS New Jersey in the first round of the final 16, and then us VS Sens in the second round of that. And after that, how about a chance for revenge against the Bolts?
Is the new playoff format really going to happen? I thought it was only speculation...

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07-14-2005, 11:28 PM
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I think so...Makes sense all over. Everybody wants more revenues. Adding 2 teams per conference in the POs add revenues. And they've been talking about it forever.

There were 16 teams in the playoffs before the 90's when there were only 24 teams. Now there are 30, so it makes sense that more teams make them.

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07-15-2005, 12:44 AM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jozef Balej
Likely Signings:
Two Top 6 Forward
One Bottom 6 Forward
One Top 4 D-Man
Trust me, it won't be limited to this. The Bruins are telling their fans that they will be among the most active teams in the league during free agency, and that they'll be "poking holes in the salary cap ceiling."

As of today, they're $36 million under the cap. Most Bruins fans believe it's going to take around $10 million to sign Thornton (His rolled-back arbitration award was $5.1 million), Samsonov (Rolled-back arbitration award was $2.5 million), and Raycroft (Just a flier, but I'd say he'd sign for between $1.75 and $2.0 million).

That'll let them hit the free agent market with $25 million.

Quote:
F- P.J. Axelsson (RFA)
F- Andy Hilbert (RFA)
F- Tom Fitzgerald
F- Brian Boyes
F- Martin Samuelsson
F- Ivan Huml
F- Sergei Zinovjev
D- Jonathan Girard (RFA)
D- Hal Gill (RFA)
D- Ian Moran
D- Milan Jurcina
G- Hannu Toivonen
And this is exactly why the Bruins are more likely to be active in the free agent market. The 12 players you just mentioned will probably earn a total of less than $10 million. Combine them with the four players they've already got under contract for a total of $2.9 million and the aforementioned RFA trio for an additional $10 million, and the Bruins would be at 19 players earning in the neighborhood of $23 million. It's just not going to happen that way.

Quote:
F- P.J. Axelsson (RFA)
F- Martin Samuelsson
F- Ivan Huml
F- Sergei Zinovjev
D- Hal Gill (RFA)
I'd consider all of these players to be very unlikely to be with the Bruins next season. Samuelsson's just not that good. I don't think Huml's even with the organization any more, and no one knows what's going on with Zinovjev. In addition, it was reported that Axelsson, Lapointe, and Gill have all likely played their last games in Boston.

On the other hand, I'd think that Hilbert, Boyes, Toivonen, and possibly Stastny and Jurcina will all get a chance to stick with the big club.

Quote:
UFA - Thornton - Boyes
First of all, Boyes is a playmaking center, not a winger. And secondly, I can't see any way the Bruins give him a spot on the Thornton line - not when they've got so much money to spend.

Quote:
Samsonov - Bergeron - UFA
However, I COULD see Boyes center Samsonov and Bergeron on the second line - especially considering I think Mike Sullivan likes Bergeron on the right wing.

Quote:
Gonchar - Boynton
UFA - Girard
Gill - Moran
*Jurcina
I'd be shocked if Girard, Gill, or Moran made meaningful contributions to the Bruins defense this season, for different reasons.

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07-15-2005, 03:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gator Mike
...
See the thing is, the Bruins are the biggest ? around. You have 3 players under contract for next year, so as a habs fan, should give him some credit, although he might of been 100% wrong, but then again, who knows what the GMs and Owners will allow or do. The Bruins never did like to spend, but then again, a lot of new rules now, so maybe they will go after some expensive guys.

All I know is the Habs are better

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07-15-2005, 03:40 AM
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A lot of teams have major question marks. Both the Sens and the Leafs have 40-year old goalies, who were formidable in their day, but let's face it, at the very least, I expect them to slow down as well as be injury-prone. The Bruins need to reconstitute their team quite a bit. I'm not saying that their expectancy is necessarily lesser than ours, but there is a wild swing between their upside and their down-side (as is said statistically, the variance between these outcomes is greater than ours...). I would rate potential tending issues as more important than the Bruins problem, especially where a further premium is put on agility, through reduced equipment. Should be a very interesting preseason, and needless to say, season.

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07-15-2005, 07:50 AM
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Why would Dagenais and Sundstrom be UFA's?

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07-15-2005, 08:38 AM
  #19
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Nice post Balej. The northeast should definetly be strong this year. Habs are on the rise, Toronto is old but their players may still be able to keep going strong for another year or two, Boston lost alot but if they make some key signings they'll be strong as usual, Buffalo is similar to us young and on the rise and Ottawa of course defiently the best team in the division on paper. Anything could happen but I don't see us getting ahead of Ottawa in the standings i'd say we could finish as high as 2nd in the division but my predicition is 3rd slightly behind the Leafs, 5th in the conference.

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07-15-2005, 09:36 AM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CrAzYNiNe
See the thing is, the Bruins are the biggest ? around. You have 3 players under contract for next year, so as a habs fan, should give him some credit, although he might of been 100% wrong, but then again, who knows what the GMs and Owners will allow or do.
I do give him credit. He did a better job of breaking down the Northeast Division than I probably would have. I just think he's reading the Bruins wrong by limiting them to signing essentially four free agents.

Quote:
The Bruins never did like to spend, but then again, a lot of new rules now, so maybe they will go after some expensive guys.
As pointed out by Harry Sinden on the radio in Boston recently, the Bruins were more or less breaking even with a payroll approaching $45 million the last few years. In 2003-04, they added Gonchar and Nylander, which pushed their payroll close to $50 million. There's no way the Bruins don't spend to the cap immediately - especially since that's what they've promised their fans.

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07-15-2005, 11:28 AM
  #21
Fozz
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I don't want to rain on anyone's parade but this division breakdown is a futile exercise, at least until we know what players will be singed where and for how much.

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Old
07-15-2005, 04:32 PM
  #22
Leaf Lander
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Good brealdown but it is hardto predic what tea,s will do what till roster are actually filled

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