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Playoff Odds Tracking / Who to Root For

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Old
02-05-2011, 01:03 AM
  #26
johnjm22
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Originally Posted by DeeMeck View Post
I think that is an overrated stat

Also, we had never beaten Tampa Bay At Staples, ever, and we beat them.
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Originally Posted by SLang View Post
Sweet, that means they're due!
I admire your optimism.

However, the Kings losing in Calgary is a long standing tradition.

The Kings once went on a 14 year stretch in which the didn't win a single game in Calgary. (3/13/80-2/28/94)

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02-05-2011, 08:16 AM
  #27
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As long as the MIN-PHX game ends in regulation (or MIN wins if it does go into OT/SO), a win tonight would get us into 8th and might give the boys a mental boost.

Also, I'm starting to realize that our 5 shootout wins might come back to haunt us when they do tiebreakers at the end of the year.


Last edited by KingsKnight: 02-05-2011 at 08:27 AM.
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02-05-2011, 09:08 AM
  #28
Muzzinga
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thats a weird way to look at it, considering the opposite routes would have been to not win the shootouts and that haunts us more

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02-05-2011, 10:42 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by sw1tch View Post
thats a weird way to look at it, considering the opposite routes would have been to not win the shootouts and that haunts us more
I don't think that's quite what they are saying. If the Kings didn't have those wins they would be even further out of the playoff race. What I think they meant is that the close regulation losses needed to go to overtime and then have us lose.

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02-08-2011, 01:31 PM
  #30
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Looks like 34 points in 29 games remaining will get it done. 16-11-2

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02-08-2011, 08:14 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by sw1tch View Post
thats a weird way to look at it, considering the opposite routes would have been to not win the shootouts and that haunts us more
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Originally Posted by Chruceg View Post
I don't think that's quite what they are saying. If the Kings didn't have those wins they would be even further out of the playoff race. What I think they meant is that the close regulation losses needed to go to overtime and then have us lose.
Yeah don't get me wrong, I'll take the win any day, but regulation wins are what gets counted in tiebreakers, and if we end up tied with a team in points and wins at the end of the year, it's the S/O wins that won't count. In other words, those S/O wins might come back to haunt us in that we couldn't finish the teams off in regulation. Take the last game against Calgary as an example where we could have finished in regulation, but ended up in the S/O.

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02-10-2011, 02:22 AM
  #32
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What a terrible night for the Kings... EVERY single team that could have helped the Kings, didn't. Every single team the Kings are chasing won tonight.

Normally on nights when the Kings don't play, you don't see the playoff odds % change all that much... maybe 1% on bad nights. Tonight? It dropped 4.2%. That's the worst by far I've ever seen it drop without the Kings playing.

The sad part is, the Kings need to win tomorrow just to regain the 6% they've lost while idle.

You wanted a parity-driven crapshoot... here you go:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...fic/Kings.html

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02-10-2011, 02:26 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
What a terrible night for the Kings... EVERY single team that could have helped the Kings, didn't. Every single team the Kings are chasing won tonight.

Normally on nights when the Kings don't play, you don't see the playoff odds % change all that much... maybe 1% on bad nights. Tonight? It dropped 4.2%. That's the worst by far I've ever seen it drop without the Kings playing.

The sad part is, the Kings need to win tomorrow just to regain the 6% they've lost while idle.

You wanted a parity-driven crapshoot... here you go:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...fic/Kings.html
Still looking good though.

Tomorrow is a big game. If the Kings can get a W there is no way this road trip can cripple them.

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Old
02-14-2011, 10:28 AM
  #34
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no showing us finishing third

Keep it up

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Old
02-14-2011, 10:41 AM
  #35
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That's a crazy looking graph of the Kings season:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...sAbove500.html

Hopefully the Kings are done with their down slides.

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02-14-2011, 12:21 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
What a terrible night for the Kings... EVERY single team that could have helped the Kings, didn't. Every single team the Kings are chasing won tonight.

Normally on nights when the Kings don't play, you don't see the playoff odds % change all that much... maybe 1% on bad nights. Tonight? It dropped 4.2%. That's the worst by far I've ever seen it drop without the Kings playing.

The sad part is, the Kings need to win tomorrow just to regain the 6% they've lost while idle.

You wanted a parity-driven crapshoot... here you go:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...fic/Kings.html
It's amazing that they are in such a cluster-****, yet they're at 79.74%.

Yet SJ and Phoenix are currently holding playoff spots, and are at 60%

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02-14-2011, 01:14 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by KopitarFAN View Post
It's amazing that they are in such a cluster-****, yet they're at 79.74%.

Yet SJ and Phoenix are currently holding playoff spots, and are at 60%
It goes to show how valuable games in hand are. Now I admit that you have to win those games but let's keep in mind that as of Monday February 7th (one week ago) the Kings sat in eighth place. The Kings then went 2-0-1 earning five out of a possible six points and now sit in ninth. A great way to look at the standings is on the www.jewelsfromthecrown.com website.

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Old
02-14-2011, 01:23 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Chruceg View Post
It goes to show how valuable games in hand are. Now I admit that you have to win those games but let's keep in mind that as of Monday February 7th (one week ago) the Kings sat in eighth place. The Kings then went 2-0-1 earning five out of a possible six points and now sit in ninth. A great way to look at the standings is on the www.jewelsfromthecrown.com website.
It's an interesting take, but no way in hell Dallas gets 101 points and wins the Pacific Division, IMHO.

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02-14-2011, 01:34 PM
  #39
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The tightness of the Western conference playoff race is just crazy.
The number of intra-conference and intra-division games at the end is going to make for one hell of an exciting playoff push.

I'm certain I will need an extra bottle:
Attached Images
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Old
02-14-2011, 01:41 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
It's an interesting take, but no way in hell Dallas gets 101 points and wins the Pacific Division, IMHO.
Look, I agree. I think their lack of defense is finally catching up to them but the standings are all just projections based on their current records. Isn't it crazy that three points nearly three quarters of the way through the season projects to a seven point difference! It almost doesn't make sense.

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Old
02-14-2011, 01:45 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chruceg View Post
It goes to show how valuable games in hand are. Now I admit that you have to win those games but let's keep in mind that as of Monday February 7th (one week ago) the Kings sat in eighth place. The Kings then went 2-0-1 earning five out of a possible six points and now sit in ninth. A great way to look at the standings is on the www.jewelsfromthecrown.com website.
I heart Quisp (a lot - it's daily reading for me) and I think this is one way to take the stress out of it, but that level of analysis is really unneeded when you have spotsclubstats.com's weighted method available to you.

sportsclubstats "knows" each team's upcoming schedule, and their opponents record. It uses that to model out how the teams will finish, and you can look through all of their past years archives to see how effective it's been (it's been highly accurate).

At the moment, it's projecting the Kings to wind up around 6th in the west: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html. A 15-9-2 record will get the Kings 97 points which should plop them right around #6.

Here's their method explained:

"Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each night it grabs any new scores from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.

The 50/50 method (you can view this by clicking 50/50 in the upper left) gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee."

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Old
02-14-2011, 01:51 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by DIEHARD the King fan View Post
The tightness of the Western conference playoff race is just crazy.
The number of intra-conference and intra-division games at the end is going to make for one hell of an exciting playoff push.

I'm certain I will need an extra bottle:
If this graph doesn't induce some sort of ulcer or vomiting, nothing will: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...ePlayoffs.html

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02-14-2011, 02:15 PM
  #43
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Tony,

I think it's amazing that they predict the Kings to win the division. It's the most likely outcome for their season. Wow. It'll take some great play down the stretch but it's absolutely possible. Do you know if this website weights recent games more than older games at all? It might explain why the Kings are expected to finish so high and why Minnesota is essentially handed the four seed.

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02-14-2011, 02:18 PM
  #44
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Some tough news for Dallas posted on their board today:

From Starstwitter:

Quote:
Quote:
Brad Richards will not be on the trip to Canada due to injury according to Stars Head Coach Marc Crawford.
Quote:
Quote:
Crawford said Richards doesn't feel 100%. Brad is going to rest and hopefully rejoin the team on the road trip.

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Old
02-14-2011, 02:20 PM
  #45
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There's 26 games left, season goes by fast but I think the Kings will do better than 15-11 down the stretch, putting them over the 95 points hump. If they finish the road trip on a good note, they will be in prime position for the playoffs and wipes off that horrible home stand.

A good indicator of how good a team is, is goal differential. The Kings are second to the Canucks in that regard.

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Old
02-14-2011, 02:22 PM
  #46
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Some tough news for Dallas posted on their board today:

From Starstwitter:
They haven't been so hot lately, and let the rest of the pacific division catch up to them...and with this, the rest of the pacific division could blow past them.

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Old
02-14-2011, 02:36 PM
  #47
DIEHARD the King fan
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97pts 15 - 9 - 2 .615 99.9%
96pts 14 - 9 - 3 .596 99.1%
95pts 14 - 10 -2 .577 95.8%
94pts 13 - 10 -3 .558 86.5%

Cant lose more than 10 in regualtion and 2 in OT and still control our own destiny.
That said, the number of acceptable losses may drop if the teams above us keep winning.

It would be great to find the offense and keep playing the defense we have been playing for some time now.
Go KINGS GO!


Last edited by DIEHARD the King fan: 02-14-2011 at 02:45 PM.
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Old
02-14-2011, 02:40 PM
  #48
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91 points has been good enough to make the playoffs in two of the last three years.

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02-14-2011, 03:44 PM
  #49
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91 points has been good enough to make the playoffs in two of the last three years.
Could be that way again this year.

I fully expect some of the teams in the WC to fall off down the stretch. The Sharks, Kings, Wild, Ducks, Flames, and Blue Jackets have all been playing at a very high level lately. Not all of them are going to keep it up.

My guess: Jackets, Flames and the Sharks cool off substantially. The Kings, Ducks, and Wild continue to play solid for the rest of the season.

I also feel Dallas is going to fall out, and the Hawks will miss the playoffs.

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Old
02-14-2011, 03:47 PM
  #50
TonySCV
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Tony,

I think it's amazing that they predict the Kings to win the division. It's the most likely outcome for their season. Wow. It'll take some great play down the stretch but it's absolutely possible. Do you know if this website weights recent games more than older games at all? It might explain why the Kings are expected to finish so high and why Minnesota is essentially handed the four seed.
They don't say they weight recent games more heavily than others, but look at Minnesota's remaining schedule. It's ... shall we say.. favorable.

The one thing that website can't predict is when teams have mental breakdowns where they can't win a game to save their lives. It's only using objective data to model their assumptions. It can't predict problems between the ears. The Kings were cruising to the playoffs until they decided to go 2-10-0.

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