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Is Ryan Miller elite (and on the list)?

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Old
02-10-2011, 11:43 AM
  #26
Dreakon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 71Zamboni View Post
When one judges elite does it mean comparing Miller to all goalies who ever played in the NHL? Then no he is not elite, far from it.

If you compare Miller to current goalies that have played in the NHL since he came into the league, then he is a very good goalie, but elite status needs time to throw that designation at him.
I think the question is, in the current NHL, is Miller an elite goaltender? It's not the end of his career yet, so I wouldn't consider it fair to the "all time greats" or Miller to start comparing yet.

I'd say, in the current NHL, he is an elite goaltender. He's a olympic starter, vezina winning goaltender. He's not terribly consistent, but as people have said... 29 games in a row and consistently sloppy D in front of him, game in and game out, will do that. If asked around the league who is the best goaltender, or hardest to play against, Miller would probably be at least in the top 5 of most of those charts.

Whether or not he will go down in the record books and be an elite, all time goaltender... I really doubt it. But for now, according to the league, players and most non-Sabre fans, I bet they'd call him elite.

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02-10-2011, 11:51 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Dreakon View Post
I think the question is, in the current NHL, is Miller an elite goaltender? It's not the end of his career yet, so I wouldn't consider it fair to the "all time greats" or Miller to start comparing yet.

I'd say, in the current NHL, he is an elite goaltender. He's a olympic starter, vezina winning goaltender. He's not terribly consistent, but as people have said... 29 games in a row and consistently sloppy D in front of him, game in and game out, will do that. If asked around the league who is the best goaltender, or hardest to play against, Miller would probably be at least in the top 5 of most of those charts.

Whether or not he will go down in the record books and be an elite, all time goaltender... I really doubt it. But for now, according to the league, players and most non-Sabre fans, I bet they'd call him elite.
Based on a recent NHLPA poll question.....Which goalie is the most difficult to score on? The players certainly think he is.



1. Luongo ---> 17%
2. Miller -----> 16%
3. Thomas ---> 15%
4. Lundquist -> 14.8%
5. Kipper ----> 4%

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02-10-2011, 02:41 PM
  #28
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Some people have a different view or opinion of elite. I look at elite as ...
the best at or part of a group who is the best at something.

Does "hard to score on" = elite?
Does high save percentage = elite?
Does playoff wins = elite?
Does goals against = elite?
Does one or two things have to be satisfied before a goalie is tagged with "elite"?


I think people have different opinions on the definition of elite. No wrong opinion really.

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02-10-2011, 03:21 PM
  #29
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He has had elite stats 1 season in his whole career. If it was a goalie on any other team with similar stats, very few Sabres fans would call that goalie elite. We would call his great season a career year, and he would move into the very good goalie category, at best.

He is a top 10 goalie, that played out of his mind last year. If you look at his stats as a whole, I would call him a consistent top 15 goalie, who could play lights out at times.

You could do way worse than putting your eggs in Miller's basket, but I also would be lying if I didn't say people overrate him. I've watched him give up the game losing goal on too many occasions throughout his career, to call him elite.

In my mind, elite is the best goalie over a number of seasons, he has not been that. I guess it comes down to each persons definition of elite.

And I think he is on the list, for sure.

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02-10-2011, 04:27 PM
  #30
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If I think of all the goaltenders in the world who're currently playing, yes Ryan Miller is without question "elite".

He's played 1/3 of the schedule consecutively while being nagged by a lingering groin/hip issue and has kept his team in games. More than half of the goalies in the league today wouldn't be able to perform at the consistent level that he has.

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02-10-2011, 06:37 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hobey Baker View Post
If I think of all the goaltenders in the world who're currently playing, yes Ryan Miller is without question "elite".

He's played 1/3 of the schedule consecutively while being nagged by a lingering groin/hip issue and has kept his team in games. More than half of the goalies in the league today wouldn't be able to perform at the consistent level that he has.
He's been pretty average during the streak. Even Paul Hamilton pointed it out in WGR website column.

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02-10-2011, 07:34 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by HogtownSabresfan View Post
He's been pretty average during the streak. Even Paul Hamilton pointed it out in WGR website column.
Consideing he's still hurt and still going out there night after night after night... and keeping them in games, I get Bake's point.

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02-10-2011, 10:17 PM
  #33
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I would say borderline elite, most likely just below that cutoff. I don't know that there are any elite goaltenders currently in the NHL with Brodeur looking old, and Luongo's playoff track record.

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02-14-2011, 04:01 PM
  #34
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He didn't look elite yesterday. That's for sure. He didn't act elite after the game, either.

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02-14-2011, 04:36 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hobey Baker View Post
If I think of all the goaltenders in the world who're currently playing, yes Ryan Miller is without question "elite".

He's played 1/3 of the schedule consecutively while being nagged by a lingering groin/hip issue and has kept his team in games. More than half of the goalies in the league today wouldn't be able to perform at the consistent level that he has.
The team is winning despite him... a lot.

He's 30th in the league in GAA for goalies who started more then 20 games. 26th in Save%.

Goalies are fickle...

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02-15-2011, 10:53 AM
  #36
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No. Miller is not Elite. I don't think he is that impressive. In "full seasons"(more than 40 games) he is average at best. Last year was the exception to his career. his numbers the past 5 seasons-312 GP 175-94-35 2.58GAA .907 SP%.

A lot of people, I think, over value his spectacular saves. A lot of times its because he has taken a bad angle, punched out a rebound, or just overcommited on a play. Even when he had decent defense in 05-06 and an explosive offense in which he can relax 06-07 and have no pressure, he had numbers which would are not considered elite.

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02-15-2011, 11:23 AM
  #37
joshjull
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Originally Posted by OkimLom View Post
No. Miller is not Elite. I don't think he is that impressive. In "full seasons"(more than 40 games) he is average at best. Last year was the exception to his career. his numbers the past 5 seasons-312 GP 175-94-35 2.58GAA .907 SP%.

A lot of people, I think, over value his spectacular saves. A lot of times its because he has taken a bad angle, punched out a rebound, or just overcommited on a play. Even when he had decent defense in 05-06 and an explosive offense in which he can relax 06-07 and have no pressure, he had numbers which would are not considered elite.
Without getting into whether or not he is elite. I don't think thats the case at all.


Miller is a positional goalie that stops the puck because he is in the proper position. When he is playing his best he makes it look easy and rarely makes dramatic saves. When he isn't on his game he rarely makes those saves either.

In short, he just doesn't make many of those types of saves. So I don't see how they could be overvalued.

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02-15-2011, 11:56 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
In short, he just doesn't make many of those types of saves. So I don't see how they could be overvalued.
That's not the first time I've seen that 'spectacular save' comment thrown around about Miller either. It's very strange since he's good for maybe 2 highlight reel saves a season, tops. I wonder if people just latch onto say, the one stick save against Boston a few years ago, or the Carolina desperation save last year. Really those are the only two that come to mind when I think of Miller and Spectacular saves. Oh yeah, and the Gaborik one last year vs. the 4-1.

When compared to some of the other "elite" goalies, Miller is almost never on the highlight reel. Of course part of that is because he's usually in such great position that he's not forced to make that desperation save. Though it'd be nice to see him make one of those when he does put himself out of position. If anything this year he should have more of those highlight reel saves since he's been not as sharp positionally, yet still not many (if any) come to mind.

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02-15-2011, 02:45 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by OkimLom View Post
No. Miller is not Elite. I don't think he is that impressive. In "full seasons"(more than 40 games) he is average at best. Last year was the exception to his career. his numbers the past 5 seasons-312 GP 175-94-35 2.58GAA .907 SP%.
Where are you getting those numbers?? Considering he's had only season below .907 during that span(.906 in '07-'08), how is his overall SV% .907? Also, I'll post a link to a recent article that talks about Miller:

Quote:
Ryan Miller is being worked like crazy this year -- he's started 45 of Buffalo's 54 games - and his numbers are down a tad. Last year, he had a 0.929 save percentage, but this year it's 0.909. This leads some to say that Miller has gone "from Vezina Trophy winner and Olympic hero to a run-of-the-mill netminder."

But let's look into that a little more.

ES SA ES SV ES SV% PP SA PP SV PP SV% SH SA SH SV SH SV% Total SV%
2006 1048 963 0.919 307 276 0.899 85 77 0.906 0.914
2007 1460 1355 0.928 351 297 0.846 75 66 0.880 0.911
2008 1631 1492 0.915 382 331 0.866 91 84 0.923 0.906
2009 1375 1274 0.927 347 305 0.879 51 49 0.961 0.918
2010 1690 1569 0.928 321 295 0.919 87 84 0.966 0.929
Total 7204 6653 0.924 1708 1504 0.881 389 360 0.925 0.916


Ryan Miller has established himself as an above-average goaltender through 5 seasons in the NHL. The League average save percentages since 1998 are 0.917 at even-strength, 0.868 while down a man (labeled as PP SV%), and 0.914 up a man (labeled as SH SV%). He's clearly above league-average in every situation -- at even-strength, at 4-on-5, and at 5-on-4.

There's a reason Miller won the Vezina last year, and it should be obvious. He stopped a career-high percentage of shots in every single situation. So why is he receiving insults like "run-of-the-mill netminder"?

Look at his numbers this year compared to his 2006-2010 totals:

ES SA ES SV ES SV% PP SA PP SV PP SV% SH SA SH SV SH SV% Total SV%
2011 1068 984 0.921 242 209 0.864 34 29 0.853 0.909
'06-'10 7204 6653 0.924 1708 1504 0.881 389 360 0.925 0.916


Is Miller having a worse season? Certainly. Is he right around league-average? Yes, yes he is. But he's still above league average in ES SV%, and he's mostly being hurt by shorthanded goals scored against the Sabres. But his play at even-strength is only marginally worse than his established talent level. Does that make him run-of-the-mill? No. It makes him unlucky and the victim of small sample-sizes. But most people see the 0.909 overall save percentage and use it as justification for their hyperbolic "run-of-the-mill netminder" statement. And they're wrong.
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/201...eam-effects-on

He's far above the league averages in every metric. How is that average or mediocre? His special teams SV%'s are killing his numbers this year. If people want to argue that he's not "elite," fine, people can have their silly semantics-based opinions. But Miller is a damned good NHL goaltender and the numbers support that.

Quote:
A lot of people, I think, over value his spectacular saves. A lot of times its because he has taken a bad angle, punched out a rebound, or just overcommited on a play. Even when he had decent defense in 05-06 and an explosive offense in which he can relax 06-07 and have no pressure, he had numbers which would are not considered elite
Similar to how people overemphasize the softies?


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Old
02-15-2011, 03:17 PM
  #40
sabregoat
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Career Statistics
YEAR TEAM GP GS MIN W L T OTL GA GAA SOG SV SV% ENG SO
2002-2003 BUF 15 15 912:19 6 8 1 -- 40 2.63 410 370 .902 1 1
2003-2004 BUF 3 3 177:51 0 3 0 -- 15 5.06 73 58 .795 0 0
2005-2006 BUF 48 48 2861:50 30 14 -- 3 124 2.60 1440 1316 .914 3 1
2006-2007 BUF 63 61 3692:11 40 16 -- 6 168 2.73 1886 1718 .911 1 2
2007-2008 BUF 76 75 4474:17 36 27 -- 10 197 2.64 2104 1907 .906 8 3
2008-2009 BUF 59 58 3443:25 34 18 -- 6 145 2.53 1773 1628 .918 6 5
2009-2010 BUF 69 68 4047:10 41 18 -- 8 150 2.22 2098 1948 .929 7 5
2010-2011 BUF 45 45 2637:28 24 15 -- 5 122 2.78 1344 1222 .909 7 3
Career -- 378 373 22246:31 211 119 1 38 961 2.59 11128 10167 .914 33 20

Data provided by Elias Sports Bureau

He has played in 6 full seasons(more than half the games). Only 2 of those six is his GAA and SV% better than his average. He has played more than 60 games 3 times and this year will be #4. He also played 59 games once. He is on target to play 1 less game than less year not including the olympics. You can blame poor defense but he is facing 1 less shot per game. He is having what statiscally could be his worst year after playing his best. Overall, he is an above average goalie at best.

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02-15-2011, 03:34 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by sabregoat View Post
Career Statistics
YEAR TEAM GP GS MIN W L T OTL GA GAA SOG SV SV% ENG SO
2002-2003 BUF 15 15 912:19 6 8 1 -- 40 2.63 410 370 .902 1 1
2003-2004 BUF 3 3 177:51 0 3 0 -- 15 5.06 73 58 .795 0 0
2005-2006 BUF 48 48 2861:50 30 14 -- 3 124 2.60 1440 1316 .914 3 1
2006-2007 BUF 63 61 3692:11 40 16 -- 6 168 2.73 1886 1718 .911 1 2
2007-2008 BUF 76 75 4474:17 36 27 -- 10 197 2.64 2104 1907 .906 8 3
2008-2009 BUF 59 58 3443:25 34 18 -- 6 145 2.53 1773 1628 .918 6 5
2009-2010 BUF 69 68 4047:10 41 18 -- 8 150 2.22 2098 1948 .929 7 5
2010-2011 BUF 45 45 2637:28 24 15 -- 5 122 2.78 1344 1222 .909 7 3
Career -- 378 373 22246:31 211 119 1 38 961 2.59 11128 10167 .914 33 20

Data provided by Elias Sports Bureau

He has played in 6 full seasons(more than half the games). Only 2 of those six is his GAA and SV% better than his average. He has played more than 60 games 3 times and this year will be #4. He also played 59 games once. He is on target to play 1 less game than less year not including the olympics. You can blame poor defense but he is facing 1 less shot per game. He is having what statiscally could be his worst year after playing his best. Overall, he is an above average goalie at best.
Then how do you account for the fact that his career ESSV% is seven pts above the league average, his PKSV% is 13 pts above the league average, and his PPSV% is 11 pts above the average? Ah yes, that petty problem. That's far beyond "above average at best." That's downright good or very good.

BTW, I've always wondered this: Why do Buffalonians use the words "at best" so frequently? Is it a regional thing? It's often paired with factually unsupported arguments, too, I've noticed. Do they think it gives their weaker arguments an added authority? Or that if you say "at best" it's like you're being overly generous and a lowball assessment seems more reasonable? Honest question because I just don't hear it any other aspect of my life, and I see it a ton on various Sabres forums.

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02-15-2011, 03:46 PM
  #42
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gaa sv
10-11 30 25
9-10 2 2
8-9 18 8
7-8 24 29
6-7 20 15
5-6 11 9

These are his goalie ranking each of the last 6 years. They look like the middle of the pack other than 1 stellar season which may be the reason your stats look good.

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02-15-2011, 04:40 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sabregoat View Post
gaa sv
10-11 30 25
9-10 2 2
8-9 18 8
7-8 24 29
6-7 20 15
5-6 11 9

These are his goalie ranking each of the last 6 years. They look like the middle of the pack other than 1 stellar season which may be the reason your stats look good.
GAA and Sv% are both reliant on defensive play. And no, average shots against does not tell you how effective a defense is. A defense can give up less shots, but have more of those shots be great chances because of breakdowns and style of play.

Obviously the Islanders game was awful. But even this year, those types of games are few and far between.

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02-15-2011, 04:43 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by sabregoat View Post
gaa sv
10-11 30 25
9-10 2 2
8-9 18 8
7-8 24 29
6-7 20 15
5-6 11 9

These are his goalie ranking each of the last 6 years. They look like the middle of the pack other than 1 stellar season which may be the reason your stats look good.
And they are misleading.

Unlike the production numbers for skaters, goalie stats can't as easily be ranked and are skewed by games played.

For example, Last year the top 30 goalies in save% at the end of the season played as few as 26games and as many as 77games. Thats a 50 game swing and its absurd to compare those players with such huge variances in games played.


Would anyone argue it makes sense to compare a skaters' per game production and not factor in games played? No one would argue that a point per game skater playing 26gms accomplished the same thing as one that did it playing 77gms.

Yet you're do that very thing with the goalie stats.


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02-15-2011, 04:51 PM
  #45
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GAA and Sv% are both reliant on defensive play. And no, average shots against does not tell you how effective a defense is. A defense can give up less shots, but have more of those shots be great chances because of breakdowns and style of play.

Obviously the Islanders game was awful. But even this year, those types of games are few and far between.
I agree, GAA and SV% both can be reliant on defense but at some point the goalie is responsible. We are giving up less shots but are those shots better. He is 30 in GAA and 25 in SV% this year. Is he the only one seeing great shots? Everyone sees great shots and everyone sees easy ones. I have not seen a stat on quality shots faced by goalies. An elite goalie would be making those saves.

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02-15-2011, 04:56 PM
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I agree, GAA and SV% both can be reliant on defense but at some point the goalie is responsible. We are giving up less shots but are those shots better. He is 30 in GAA and 25 in SV% this year. Is he the only one seeing great shots? Everyone sees great shots and everyone sees easy ones. I have not seen a stat on quality shots faced by goalies. An elite goalie would be making those saves.
We are?


Ruff opened things up after Roy went down. Since then we have given up 30+ shots in 13 of the last 19gms. in 5 of those games we've given up more than 35 shots (40, 40, 39, 37 and 36). Also by the nature of how we have changed our system we have been giving up more scoring chances per game.

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02-15-2011, 05:09 PM
  #47
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We are?


Ruff opened things up after Roy went down. Since then we have given up 30+ shots in 13 of the last 19gms. in 5 of those games we've given up more than 35 shots (40, 40, 39, 37 and 36). Also by the nature of how we have changed our system we have been giving up more scoring chances per game.
Last year we gave up 31.4 shots per game and this year we are giving up 30.4 per game.

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02-15-2011, 05:14 PM
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Last year we gave up 31.4 shots per game and this year we are giving up 30.4 per game.
During this recent stretch when we've been winning and Miller's numbers have gone down thats not been the case.

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02-15-2011, 05:18 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
And they are misleading.

Unlike the production numbers for skaters, goalie stats can't as easily be ranked and are skewed by games played.

For example, Last year the top 30 goalies in save% at the end of the season played as few as 26games and as many as 77games. Thats a 50 game swing and its absurd to compare those players with such huge variances in games played.


Would anyone argue it makes sense to compare a skaters' per game production and not factor in games played? No one would argue that a point per game skater playing 26gms accomplished the same thing as one that did it playing 77gms.

Yet you're do that very thing with the goalie stats.
There will always be a couple with fewer than 30 games but the majority is above 40 and that should be a fair number. At what point do you cut it off? Other than last year(which helped his career stats) he is an average goalie.

I am not saying to trade him. I am just saying he is not elite compared to what I call elite(Hasek, Roy, Broduer,etc)

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02-15-2011, 05:23 PM
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During this recent stretch when we've been winning and Miller's numbers have gone down thats not been the case.

And I am not basing my opinion on this recent stretch but the whole year and the last 6 years as a whole. He has had 1 terrific season statistically speaking in his 6 years and is following that up with a sub par season, so that does not make you elite. Give me a few more seasons like last year and I will change my mind.

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