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Old
02-16-2011, 11:34 AM
  #26
goooal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slip View Post
But those guys didn't even play together last night, and we still managed to pull out one of the most impressive comebacks of the season. I haven't seen any line etched in stone since Roy went down.

Hecht playing center? That's something we might not have seen with a healthy Roy. And while he's been solid over that time, it's reasonable to think his game would have improved (more like reverted to the mean) playing at center or on the wing.

Jame is taking what seems like an accidental correlation (Roy's injury, Buffalo's improved play) and trying to ascribe some kind of direct causal relationship. Call me when we make the playoffs and actutally win a round without Roy. Until then, it's all fun philosophical speculation, a fine way to kill some time.
Bolded is exactly how I feel. Hecht is still better on the wing, and I grimmace at his faceoff ability; he's currently resting at 41.9%.

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Old
02-16-2011, 11:35 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slip View Post
But those guys didn't even play together last night, and we still managed to pull out one of the most impressive comebacks of the season. I haven't seen any line etched in stone since Roy went down.

Hecht playing center? That's something we might not have seen with a healthy Roy. And while he's been solid over that time, it's reasonable to think his game would have improved (more like reverted to the mean) playing at center or on the wing.

Jame is taking what seems like an accidental correlation (Roy's injury, Buffalo's improved play) and trying to ascribe some kind of direct causal relationship. Call me when we make the playoffs and actutally win a round without Roy. Until then, it's all fun philosophical speculation, a fine way to kill some time.
call me when we do it WITH Roy.

I see a direct relationship.

I see the puck on our goalscorers sticks MUCH more
I see our Ozone possession time increasing dramatically
I see our turnovers cut down
I see our PP with more zone time and quicker cycles

I see all off this not only as a result of better effort, coaching, etc... but as a direct result of the absence of a player who had previously impacted ALL of the above areas NEGATIVELY.

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Old
02-16-2011, 11:43 AM
  #28
joshjull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slip View Post
But those guys didn't even play together last night, and we still managed to pull out one of the most impressive comebacks of the season. I haven't seen any line etched in stone since Roy went down.
Vanek/Hecht/Pommer started the game together. Ruff just flipped Gerbe and Vanek after we struggled to get anything going. He did it one other time (-vs- Tampa) and it worked then as well.

But Vanek and Pommer have been together (and started every game together) since the Boston game on New Years' day.

and there have been some fairly consistant lines.

Vanek/Hecht/Pommer
Ennis/Connolly/Stafford
Nieds/Goose/Grier


The only juggling has been when Connolly or Stafford were out injured. But when the above players were healthy those have been the lines.


Quote:
Hecht playing center? That's something we might not have seen with a healthy Roy. And while he's been solid over that time, it's reasonable to think his game would have improved (more like reverted to the mean) playing at center or on the wing.
I'm refering to Vanek and Pommer togehther as something we wouldn't have seen with Roy in the lineup. Not Hecht at center

Quote:
Jame is taking what seems like an accidental correlation (Roy's injury, Buffalo's improved play) and trying to ascribe some kind of direct causal relationship. Call me when we make the playoffs and actutally win a round without Roy. Until then, it's all fun philosophical speculation, a fine way to kill some time
Umm, I'm well aware of what Jame's talking about. I've argued with him about it in several threads.

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Old
02-16-2011, 11:50 AM
  #29
Jame
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Umm, I'm well aware of what Jame's talking about. I've argued with him about it in several threads.
I've been talking about it for 4 years. and now we finally have the conditions that prove it.

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Old
02-16-2011, 11:56 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
You can sit there and think of 47 different reasons why the Sabres are successful since Roy went out, but none of them are actually tangible and warrant getting rid of him.

- Roy's injury did not create Stafford's hot streak
- Roy's injury did not remove Rivet from the lineup
- Roy's injury did not shift the team to a more rugged style
- Roy's injury did not wake up Pommer
- Roy's injury did not allow Weber to grow into a legitimate top-6 ASSET

etc.
Last year Roy was second on the team in giveaways with 68. This year he managed to cough it up only 25 times in his 35 games. By him being off the ice, there are less freebies we give to the other team.

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Old
02-16-2011, 11:58 AM
  #31
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As with anyone if you got a good offer you would take it.

Something like Roy + for a better centre, then I would move him. Otherwise no.

edit - even if they did that, a 2nd line centre would still be needed. So its unlikely.

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:00 PM
  #32
joshjull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I've been talking about it for 4 years. and now we finally have the conditions that prove it.
Prove what?


You've made so many accusations against Roy and why he is a negative. I can't remmeber them all

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:05 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Prove what?


You've made so many accusations against Roy and why he is a negative. I can't remmeber them all
The Roy is a hinderance to his linemates. Having your top wingers held back by your #1 center is NOT GOOD.


Roy is a puck hog.... NOW we see the puck on our goalscorers sticks MUCH more

Roy doesn't work away from the puck. Now we see our Ozone possession time increasing dramatically.

Roy is a turnover machine. NOW we see our turnovers cut down.

Roy is a PP Killer. NOW we see our PP with more zone time and quicker cycles

Addition by Subtraction.

All of Roy's negatives have been removed from the ice for 20 minutes a game. ALL of his positives have been replaced by the improved play throughout the top 6 because of his absence

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:14 PM
  #34
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Jame...I think there are 2 ways of looking at this.

Yes, we have been playing much better since his injury but is it because he's gone or something else.

Roy was playing the best hockey of his career when he went down. When he went down did the others see they needed to step up?

Pomminville was not himself pretty much from the beginning of the year because of the concussion. Around the New Year he started looking like himself.

Vanek. Man, I just don't know what to say with him. I still want him getting all situations playing time, and 19-21 minutes per game. When the puck is on his stick, he creates. But it is very obvious that he is playing much better with the pressure on him, and Roy not on his line. He still seems to be a fish out of water with Ruff, switching lines over and over...the guy needs 2 others to play with him. Pomms has been doing a good job but he needs a center.

The other thing is the ownership change, which I think has had a positive effect on the players. Coming out with the short list has been like a hammer coming down on some of these malcontents.

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:17 PM
  #35
joshjull
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Originally Posted by zbubble View Post
Last year Roy was second on the team in giveaways with 68. This year he managed to cough it up only 25 times in his 35 games. By him being off the ice, there are less freebies we give to the other team.
Thats a bad intepretation of that stat.

Many top offensive players or ones that carry the puck a lot will have a decent amount of turnovers. Some will have lots of turnovers.

Last year turnover leaders

1. Tyler Myers ----> 94
2. Joe Thornton ---> 88
5. Sidney Crosby --> 77
6. John Tavares --> 77
9. Alex Ovechkin --> 76
11-18. Datsyuk, Mike Green, Kovalchuk, Ribiero, Brad Richards, Streit, Vishnovsky and Doughty -> 73
20. Brian Rafalski ---> 72
21. Alex Kovalev ---> 71
22. Marleau -------> 69
25. Derek Roy -----> 68

By your logic we would have been far better off without Myers in the lineup last year. Since we would have had far less freebies to the other team to deal with.

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:17 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Corto View Post
Well, it helps that many of the guys are woken up, Myers is back to something like his best, Stafford's scoring like a machine, Vanek is playing probably the best two-way hockey of his career, Hecht and Pommer are much more present on the scoresheet, etc.

Sorry, Jame, I don't buy it.

At the time Roy went down, along with Sekera, Monty and Leopold, he was one of the rare guys who would've gotten a passable grade at that point.
IMHO, Mike Weber was picking up his game as Roy went down. Not that they're completely related, but Mike has really solidified the second pairing.

That confidence boost on the back-end helps open things up on the offensive side too.

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:37 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Roy's individualism is gone
Or Roy was trying to do too much by himself bc the others were playing like crap.

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:47 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by SabresFanNorthPortFL View Post
Or Roy was trying to do too much by himself bc the others were playing like crap.
i see the opposite...obviously

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:48 PM
  #39
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What happened to Ruff's philosophy of borrowing from the Detroit system of puck possession, and quick, crisp passes?

If Roy is guilty of holding onto the puck too long, isn't it the coache's responsibility to change that? When he got back from the summer Canadian Olympic Hockey Camp, he spoke freely about that Detroit system. Now that we have guys like Ennis, Gerbe, Vanek, Pomms and Stafford...why are we not doing it?

Make Roy play that game.

I'm of the opinion to not trade Roy, as his cap/production is fantastic. If we are to trade him, it would need to be a trade like a Spezza for Roy. Roy is a legit center, we need a legit one back.

LA you want Roy....I want Schenn ++

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:51 PM
  #40
joshjull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
The Roy is a hinderance to his linemates. Having your top wingers held back by your #1 center is NOT GOOD.

We have 5 wingers clicking at various levels right now; Vanek, Pommer, Stafford, Ennis and Gerbe.

How in the world did Roy manage to hold all 5 of them back? Its an absurd assertion.

Quote:
Roy is a puck hog.... NOW we see the puck on our goalscorers sticks MUCH more
See above about the 5 wingers. Whether he is a puck hog or not there is no way he hogged the puck when he wasn't on the ice.

Quote:
Roy doesn't work away from the puck. Now we see our Ozone possession time increasing dramatically.
All of our lines are cycling the puck well right now. Again, how did Roy hold all these lines back from doing this when he was in the lineup?

Quote:
Roy is a turnover machine. NOW we see our turnovers cut down.
See my previous post about turnovers. Should we sit Myers now? He is far worse.

Quote:
Roy is a PP Killer. NOW we see our PP with more zone time and quicker cycles
The PP started clicking before Roy's injury. It started to improve when he was taken away from center and put on the point.

In the 5 games prior to his injury they had 5 PP goals and were clicking at 20% (5 for 25).

Quote:
Addition by Subtraction.

All of Roy's negatives have been removed from the ice for 20 minutes a game. ALL of his positives have been replaced by the improved play throughout the top 6 because of his absence

How about with Roy out certain combos have been put together that wouldn't have been otherwise.

With Roy in the lineup there is no way Vanek/Pommer play together. That also means Ennis/Stafford wouldn't be together either.

Basically the top 4 wingers we currently have wouldn't be together if Roy was in the lineup. Because Hecht would be on the wing bumping Ennis out of the top 6 and for whatever reason Ruff never puts Vanek/Roy/Pommer together.

So in a sense you're right but not for the reasons you've put forth. Roy out of the lineup has allowed us to have two great combos on the wings in our top 6.


When Roy returns to the lineup there is no reason those wing combos can't stay together.

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:55 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
Lack of center depth has been a perpetual issue since the departure of the co-captains.

Your proposed solution? Get rid of the only top-6 center we have.

Don't like it at all.

You can sit there and think of 47 different reasons why the Sabres are successful since Roy went out, but none of them are actually tangible and warrant getting rid of him.

- Roy's injury did not create Stafford's hot streak
- Roy's injury did not remove Rivet from the lineup
- Roy's injury did not shift the team to a more rugged style
- Roy's injury did not wake up Pommer
- Roy's injury did not allow Weber to grow into a legitimate top-6 ASSET

etc.

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:57 PM
  #42
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Maybe Roy isn't a very good leader?

Roy more or less was the C for the first half of the season. Since he's been out, someone else (I'm not sure who, maybe Vanek or Hecht) has taken over.

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Old
02-16-2011, 12:59 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Thats a bad intepretation of that stat.

Many top offensive players or ones that carry the puck a lot will have a decent amount of turnovers. Some will have lots of turnovers.

Last year turnover leaders

1. Tyler Myers ----> 94
2. Joe Thornton ---> 88
5. Sidney Crosby --> 77
6. John Tavares --> 77
9. Alex Ovechkin --> 76
11-18. Datsyuk, Mike Green, Kovalchuk, Ribiero, Brad Richards, Streit, Vishnovsky and Doughty -> 73
20. Brian Rafalski ---> 72
21. Alex Kovalev ---> 71
22. Marleau -------> 69
25. Derek Roy -----> 68

By your logic we would have been far better off without Myers in the lineup last year. Since we would have had far less freebies to the other team to deal with.
Are there some games we probably could have won if Myers was not in the lineup and had not turned it over? Absolutely.
Did the positives that Myers brought outweigh the negatives? Definately.
Can I say the same for Roy? Nope.

By the number alone, you're right, the stat doesn't mean much. It also doesn't take into account some of those guys also get a lot more minutes than Roy and he would be higher on the list if it were actually ranked by turnovers per minute. But I digress. All that really matters are the numbers of times I swore at the TV because Roy tries a cross-ice pass through three pairs of legs that, of course, never works, and it just send the other team back the other way.

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Old
02-16-2011, 01:03 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
based on what I see on the ice.. no. the team is simply better without Roy... because Roy excels at being the individual on the ice. that's what makes him productive. Unfortunately it hurts the team overall, at ES and PP.

Addition (better team overall) by subtraction (removal of talented individual)
Very well put. I'd be all for moving Roy for another top 6 center.

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Old
02-16-2011, 01:08 PM
  #45
joshjull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zbubble View Post
Are there some games we probably could have won if Myers was not in the lineup and had not turned it over? Absolutely.
Did the positives that Myers brought outweigh the negatives? Definately.
Can I say the same for Roy? Nope.

By the number alone, you're right, the stat doesn't mean much. It also doesn't take into account some of those guys also get a lot more minutes than Roy and he would be higher on the list if it were actually ranked by turnovers per minute. But I digress. All that really matters are the numbers of times I swore at the TV because Roy tries a cross-ice pass through three pairs of legs that, of course, never works, and it just send the other team back the other way.
Thats as much a product of you looking for it because you don't like Roy as it is being an issue for the team.


So in your mind a guy who turns the puck over 94 times but scores 11g 37a 48pts has the good outweighing the bad.


But a guy that turns the puck over 68 times while producing 26g 43a 69pts is a detriment and the bad outweighs the good.

Granted thats an over simplification. But you tried to take his turnover stat to make your arguement. When I point out Myers was far worse you lean on your subjective assessment that what you see is Roy hurting the team with turnovers. I would argue you're looking for it.


FYI -> I happen to think Myers was a stud for us last year and was only behind Miller in importance to the team last year. I'm just trying to show how your bias against Roy colors your take on this.

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Old
02-16-2011, 01:20 PM
  #46
joshjull
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Another stat to consider when looking at turnovers is takeaways.

Guess who still leads us in takeways even though he has missed 20 games?

Roy did have 25 turnovers in 35 games but he also had 37 takeways.


Last year he had 68 giveaways and 51 takeways.

By comparison Myers had 94 giveaways and 30 takeaways.

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Old
02-16-2011, 01:34 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Another stat to consider when looking at turnovers is takeaways.

Guess who still leads us in takeways even though he has missed 20 games?

Roy did have 25 turnovers in 35 games but he also had 37 takeways.


Last year he had 68 giveaways and 51 takeways.

By comparison Myers had 94 giveaways and 30 takeaways.
This + your above post are simply evidence that the center position has the puck a lot. The center is always in the vicinity of the puck. You can't use turnovers as a reason to want him out of the lineup.

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Old
02-16-2011, 01:43 PM
  #48
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Is Hecht good enough defensively to handle the defensive duties incumbent upon a center, and a 3C, at that? Yes. Yes, he is.
Agreed.
Hecht might deserve some slack at times, but overall, in his Buffalo career, barring that one post-injury season, he's been fairly consistent.

And Hecht, if used correctly, is a great asset to any team in this league IMO, a two-way winger who can plug in at center, generally best fitted for a two-way or a checking line but certainly not out of place on a scoring line.

The dude "gets it", IMO, and plays a team-first game, and as long as he's not relied on primarily as a scoring winger/center, you can never have too much Hecht IMO.

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02-16-2011, 02:01 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Another stat to consider when looking at turnovers is takeaways.

Guess who still leads us in takeways even though he has missed 20 games?

Roy did have 25 turnovers in 35 games but he also had 37 takeways.


Last year he had 68 giveaways and 51 takeways.

By comparison Myers had 94 giveaways and 30 takeaways.
Did you really just say my stats were meaningless because I have some bias, and then you go ahead and post more stats? I'm not sure you're doing yourself any favors here.

I don't have any personal bias against Roy. I just want to see smart hockey is all. When I was younger I used to be a big fan of Miro Satan. I thought it was a big mistake to get rid of a 40 goal scorer. I couldn't understand why people kept saying addition by subtraction, but I get it now.

I really don't have any personal bias against Roy. Some games he helps us win. Some games he helps us lose. The point is, we've lost with him, and we've proven we can win without him. We've been doing it for a few months now. All it means is he's not irreplaceable and the team can have success without him.

Someone also said this is nothing more than speculation, let's see the Sabres win a playoff round without Roy. Well, without Drury and Briere but with Roy we missed the playoffs twice in a row then lost in the first round last year. I'm waiting for someone to prove we can win a round with him. Sadly, the real players we couldn't live without are already gone.

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02-16-2011, 02:20 PM
  #50
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ideally, I want Roy on this team... I just want him in a completely different role. On the ice, I want him in the Drury role where he centers a "2nd" line, that really functions as a checking line. Put 2 banger/grinder/checker wingers with him... but guys who can skate and chip in offensively...

In a perfect world that will never happen...

Vanek-#1 Center-Pommer
Hecht 2006-Roy-Grier 2006
Ennis- #2 Young center- Stafford

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