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ATD 2011 Draft Thread VI

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Old
02-25-2011, 01:44 AM
  #26
Dreakmur
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
I' almost hoping someone select one of the two player I'm coveting, because I just can't make my mind!

Tommy Dunderdale is an excellent selection
I usually wait to take my 2nd line center, but they are getting pretty thin at this point. The fact that Dunderdale was a rover means that he can shuffle to the wing if I need him there.... but I doubt he'll end up there.




Egan gives me another heavy point shot for my 2nd PP unit. I realize he is bad defensively, but he's a pretty strong offensive defenseman who also adds quite a bit of toughness.

If you can't show that Corbeau was good defensively, then you really should have picked Egan instead. He brings the same level of physical play, and substantially better offense.

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02-25-2011, 01:47 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
I usually wait to take my 2nd line center, but they are getting pretty thin at this point. The fact that Dunderdale was a rover means that he can shuffle to the wing if I need him there.... but I doubt he'll end up there.




Egan gives me another heavy point shot for my 2nd PP unit. I realize he is bad defensively, but he's a pretty strong offensive defenseman who also adds quite a bit of toughness.

If you can't show that Corbeau was good defensively, then you really should have picked Egan instead. He brings the same level of physical play, and substantially better offense.
I was looking at Pat Egan, but later, as my #5 defenceman.

My Bert Corbeau biography will be up i the next 12 hours. I really find some great information on him. Wait and see

PS. And for the record, there's absolutely no way Egan bring the same level of physical play than Corbeau.

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02-25-2011, 01:53 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
PS. And for the record, there's absolutely no way Egan bring the same level of physical play than Corbeau.
I've actually had Corbeau before, so I know what kind of player he is. Both he and Egan were among the most punishing checkers of their time. The difference, if there is one, is rather small.

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02-25-2011, 01:56 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
I've actually had Corbeau before, so I know what kind of player he is. Both he and Egan were among the most punishing checkers of their time. The difference, if there is one, is rather small.
You'll have to sell me of Pat Egan then, because Corbeau was every bit as punishing and intimidating than Sprague Cleghorn.

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02-25-2011, 01:59 AM
  #30
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With our 9th selection, the 324th overall in this year All-Time draft, the Detroit Falcons are very please to select C/RW Aloyisus Martin Sloan



Nickname: Slinker
Height: 5'10''
Weight: 152 lbs
Position: Center / Right Wing
Shoots: Right
Date of Birth: November 30, 1927
Place of Birth: Pontiac, Quebec, Canada


It was a very difficult decision to make. There's two players I really wanted to research, but at the end it's the selection that makes the most sense for my team (Damn 40 teams!). A Quebec born hockey player who can play as effectively at center or on the right side, he will give me some needed versatility, as I still need another C/RW for my top-6. I will try to understand as to why Tod Sloan was put on a checking line 2 of the last 3 drafts, and see if he was a good defensive player or all this is just a myth.

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02-25-2011, 02:06 AM
  #31
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I looked at Sloan too. The only thing that turned me off was that I read he wasn't a team player... not a bad teammate, but a guy who just never used his linemates or fit into a system.

He's still a good pick. I just wouldn't want to build around him.

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02-25-2011, 02:11 AM
  #32
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I didn't know his real name was Aloyius, lol.

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02-25-2011, 02:14 AM
  #33
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I have read that too. Sloan was definitely a team player, wearing the A with the Leafs, but on the ice he was someone who played his own brand of hockey. However, Sloan never was blessed with great linemate during his hockey years in Toronto, was that might partly explain it. When he was traded in Chicago, as he was slowing down (it's not the reason he was traded, but I'll explain it in my bio), he was able to put some solid numbers, as he clicked well with Ed Litzenberger. He will play on my second line with Vladimir Krutov, who have one of the best offensive package of any 2nd line player in the draft. I think they will mesh well.

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Old
02-25-2011, 02:52 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi View Post
I didn't know his real name was Aloyius, lol.
It was quite common in the past for North Americans with Polish roots to have an official Polish first name and an adopted "Americanized" name, much like many Chinese families do on the west coast today. Baseball hall of famer Al Simmons was also named Aloyius.

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Old
02-25-2011, 03:15 AM
  #35
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that's a bit unfair. First of all, what's wrong with three top-10s in goals? Secondly, the years where he was top-10 in total goals but not in ES, his ES ranking would have been very close to 10th, certainly top-20. For a guy in the post-euro era, that is very solid no matter what angle you take the knife to it.
Well, let's just take a look.

93-94: 15th goals, 5th PP goals, ES goals not in top-20
94-95: 18th goals, ES goals not in top-20
95-96: 7th goals, 2nd PP goals, 10th ES goals
96-97: 1st goals, 1st ES goals
97-98: 6th goals, 12th PP goals, 5th ES goals
98-99: 15th goals, 18th PP goals, 17th ES goals
00-01: 19th goals, 7th PP goals, ES goals not in top-20
01-02: 8th goals, 7th PP goals, 11th ES goals
02-03: 10th PP goals, ES goals not in top-20
03-04: 10th goals, 2nd PP goals, ES goals not in top-20

...and that's the end of Tkachuk's peak. So you are mostly right (except for 03-04), but you nevertheless overstate the point. He is one of the most unbalanced powerplay-heavy goalscorers in modern times. Outside of Tkachuk's three top-10 ES goalscoring seasons, he only has an additional two top-20 finishes. His complete ES goalscoring track record is 1st, 5th, 10th, 11th, 17th. While the peak is certainly nice, it's not all that impressive around pick #300, and as I said, there were players (even powerforwards types who can play the same role as Tkachuk) taken in the 500+ pick range of ATD 2010 who were, when everything is taken into account (speed, playmaking, defense, playoffs), just as good at even strength.

Keith Tkachuk averaged about 70% powerplay icetime during his prime. If you're putting him on an ATD second unit, you're slashing that icetime by about two thirds, and throwing out a large portion of his offensive value. At this point, especially in a 40 team draft where you can't hide him on a second line behind two better offensive players at even strength, I think Tkachuk has already become overrated, likely because he was on a Milt Dunnell Cup winner last year.

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02-25-2011, 03:31 AM
  #36
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Originally Posted by EagleBelfour View Post
Tommy Dunderdale is an excellent selection
Dunderdale has an excellent three year peak as a goalscorer.

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02-25-2011, 03:41 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
\At this point, especially in a 40 team draft where you can't hide him on a second line behind two better offensive players at even strength
And yet, that's exactly what I've done.

Roy Conacher-Syl Apps-Gordie Drillon
Keith Tkachuk-Dale Hawerchuk

Apps is obviously a first-line player. Conacher is a first-line LW in a 40-team ATD. To top it off, Hawerchuk could have been a first-line center this time around (he was exactly the 41st center picked).

Tkachuk's powerplay dominance is an asset, not a negative like you portray it to be, and he's been given the supporting cast (two of the four other forwards and Denis Potvin) to succeed.

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Old
02-25-2011, 03:58 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
Hawerchuk could have been a first-line center this time around (he was exactly the 41st center picked).
Hawerchuk is a very good second line center, but Tkachuk is clearly your go-to even strength goalscorer on the line. It's not quite like Devil's team in ATD 2010 where Keith was behind both Savard and Martinec as the third best player on the line.

Quote:
Tkachuk's powerplay dominance is an asset, not a negative like you portray it to be, and he's been given the supporting cast (two of the four other forwards and Denis Potvin) to succeed.
It's a negative if he doesn't get to use those talents, because it makes his actual ATD offensive production considerably lower than his on-paper resume would suggest. Your top line and Potvin are almost wholly irrelevant to Tkachuk's production at even strength. Potvin will likely play a few ES minutes/game behind your second line, I'm sure, but what in the world does your first line have to do with Keith Tkachuk's even strength performance?

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02-25-2011, 04:09 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Hawerchuk is a very good second line center, but Tkachuk is clearly your go-to even strength goalscorer on the line. It's not quite like Devil's team in ATD 2010 where Keith was behind both Savard and Martinec as the third best player on the line.
You said "hide him behind two better players at even strength". Not scorer. And indeed, he's not the first, second or even third-best player on the top two lines.

Quote:
It's a negative if he doesn't get to use those talents, because it makes his actual ATD offensive production considerably lower than his on-paper resume would suggest.
To put on a twist you asked in the next paragraph, what does Tkachuk's ES time have to do with his powerplay production? If he gets the time he needs on special teams, why does that negatively affect his overall production? Powerplays goals are part of the sum goals total at the end, are they not?

Quote:
Your top line and Potvin are almost wholly irrelevant to Tkachuk's production at even strength.
I was referring to his supporting cast on the powerplay- inferred by mentioning Potvin, an all-time man-advantage stud.

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Old
02-25-2011, 04:31 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Dunderdale has an excellent three year peak as a goalscorer.
Not only that, but he's got another 10 seasons of quality scoring finishes on top of that peak.

Asside from his 10 top-10 scoring finishes in the PCHA, Dunderdale had good seasons in the MHL (where Tommy Phillips played) as well as the NHA and CHA (which was a spin-off of the ECAHA and joined the NHA after a half season).

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Old
02-25-2011, 04:31 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
the next paragraph, what does Tkachuk's ES time have to do with his powerplay production? If he gets the time he needs on special teams, why does that negatively affect his overall production? Powerplays goals are part of the sum goals total at the end, are they not?
Does this mean that you intend to use Tkachuk on your first powerplay unit? I think that is a...brave...tactic considering that Tkachuk's powerplay production is actually the single worst aspect of his legendary playoff struggles. Keith scored 8 powerplay goals in 89 career playoff games, for a GPG rate of about 0.09 compared to a regular season career GPG rate of 0.45 (538 goals in 1201 games). For those of you keeping score at home, that means Tkachuk scored powerplay goals in the playoffs at one-fifth his regular season rate. Not good.

At any rate, putting Tkachuk on your first unit powerplay would raise questions about how much offensive value you can squeeze out of Gordie Drillon, whose game was also largely predicated on standing in front of the net and collecting garbage. Both of them cannot realistically play on the same powerplay unit. I think you've sailed between the proverbial Scylla and Charybdis here.

But anyway, I'm done talking about Keith Tkachuk.

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02-25-2011, 04:41 AM
  #42
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Aside from his 10 top-10 scoring finishes in the PCHA, Dunderdale had good seasons in the MHL (where Tommy Phillips played) as well as the NHA and CHA (which was a spin-off of the ECAHA and joined the NHA after a half season).
I don't think counting as deep as the top-10 in a split league scenario makes much sense. Dunderdale led the PCHA in goalscoring three times. He finished 3rd once and 4th once. That's basically his offensive peak, because he wasn't any kind of playmaker in an all-time sense. I have no idea about these "good" seasons in the MHL and CHA, but they most likely add only to his non-peak longevity.

Dunderdale is a good pick here and I think a comparable goal-scoring centerman to Joe Nieuwendyk with an extra physical dimension and without the playoff credentials, but let's not make his non-peak offensive seasons out to be something they're not. Placing in the bottom part of the top-10 in PCHA scoring is basically meaningless. There were only 12 regular forwards in the league most seasons. Also, where do you get the idea that playing rover qualifies a skater to play any forward position? The rover was like a more defensive center. The position had almost nothing, whatsoever, to do with playing on the wing. In modern hockey, Dunderdale would be a center.

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02-25-2011, 04:58 AM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I don't think counting as deep as the top-10 in a split league scenario makes much sense. Dunderdale led the PCHA in goalscoring three times. He finished 3rd once and 4th once. That's basically his offensive peak, because he wasn't any kind of playmaker in an all-time sense. I have no idea about these "good" seasons in the MHL and CHA, but they most likely add only to his non-peak longevity.

Dunderdale is a good pick here and I think a comparable goal-scoring centerman to Joe Nieuwendyk with an extra physical dimension and without the playoff credentials, but let's not make his non-peak offensive seasons out to be something they're not. Placing in the bottom part of the top-10 in PCHA scoring is basically meaningless. There were only 12 regular forwards in the league most seasons. Also, where do you get the idea that playing rover qualifies a skater to play any forward position? The rover was like a more defensive center. The position had almost nothing, whatsoever, to do with playing on the wing. In modern hockey, Dunderdale would be a center.
I wasn't intending that to sound like I was trying to oversell him.

I do agree that placing 10th in the PCHA isn't a great accomplishment, but it isn't meaningless. It's still a season where he produced at a reasonable level. Same with his MHL and CHA seasons - they don't really add to his peak, but they do add more seasons where he was able to produce at a decent level. Probably 5 of those 10 seasons would equate to a top-20 in today's NHL.

I think you are under-rating his playmaking. He's certainly not a guy who can be a primary passer for a line, but he does have some ability. He does have 7 pretty decent playmaking seasons, 3 or 4 of them would translate into the equivelant of a top-10 in today's NHL.

I'd agree that Dunderdale doesn't have Nieuwendyk's play-off credentials, but he was a pretty decent scorer in the play-offs.

I always though the rover was kind of a "do whatever is needed" position - one that would translate into all other positions without much stretch. Perhaps I misunderstood the position. Either way, he will almost certainly end up at center anyway.

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Old
02-25-2011, 05:04 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
Keith scored 8 powerplay goals in 89 career playoff games, for a GPG rate of about 0.09 compared to a regular season career GPG rate of 0.45 (538 goals in 1201 games). For those of you keeping score at home, that means Tkachuk scored powerplay goals in the playoffs at one-fifth his regular season rate. Not good.
What sort of statistical mind**** is this? You compare his PPGPG in playoffs with his GPG in regular season? Tkachuk's PPGPG in regular season is 0.18. His posteason PPG rate drops by a half, not 4/5ths (not that halving his production is a good thing). His PP drop is worse than his ES drop, though (0.26 to 0.22).

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02-25-2011, 05:13 AM
  #45
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I don't think it's in question that Tkachuk is going to be worse in the play-offs, but the question is how much...

Personally, I evaluate players on their whole careers, and then make slight adjstments for the play-offs. If he's better in the play-offs, then I rank him slightly higher, and it he's worse, I'd rank him slightly lower.


I'll use Bernie Geoffrion and Charlie Conacher as an example:
In the regular season, I have Charlie Conacher slightly ahead of Geoffrion. The difference in small, but I think there is a small one.

When the play-offs roll around, there is a slight change. Since Geoffrion is clearly the better play-off performer, he gets a boost for me. That boost is enough to move him up to being even with Conacher... maybe slightly ahead.

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02-25-2011, 05:14 AM
  #46
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What sort of statistical mind**** is this? You compare his PPGPG in playoffs with his GPG in regular season? Tkachuk's PPGPG in regular season is 0.18. His posteason PPG rate drops by a half, not 4/5ths (not that halving his production is a good thing). His PP drop is worse than his ES drop, though (0.26 to 0.22).
You're right. It was a rather quick and dirty analysis, and I simply compared the wrong numbers. Thank you for correcting me.

8 goals in 89 games is still terrible for a guy whose greatest asset as a player was his powerplay goalscoring, and that's the rub with Tkachuk. At even strength, he's comparable to guys drafted much later, and on the powerplay, woe unto the GM who depends on his production in the playoffs.

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02-25-2011, 05:36 AM
  #47
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Round 9 (6 Hour clock)

321. Cognition - San Jose Sharks - Michael Peca, C
322. Reen Machine - Montreal Canadiens - Alex Connell, G
323. Home Nugget - Detroit Riots - Reed Larson, D
324. EagleBelfour - Detroit Falcons - Tod Sloan, RW/C
325. Dwight - Battle Creek Battallion - Jim Schoenfeld, D
326. Dreakmur - McGuire’s Monsters - Pat Egan, D
327. nik jr - Jokerit Helsinki - Ulf Samuelsson, D
328. Dreakmur - McGuire’s Monsters - Tom Dunderdale, C/R

329. BiLLY_ShOE1721 - Philadelphia Firebirds - OTC UNTIL 8:35AM EST

330. Stoneberg - Halifax Mooseheads -
331. TheDevilMadeMe - New Jersey Swamp Devils -
332. DoMakc - Detroit Red Wings -
333. advantage2006 - Montreal AAA HC -
334. Nighthawks - New Haven Nighthawks -
335. BraveCanadian - Guelph Platers
336. Boy Wonder - North Pole Penguinators -
337. Mr Bugg - Kimberley Dynamiters -
338. MadArcand - Hartford Whalers -

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02-25-2011, 06:19 AM
  #48
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Originally Posted by Sturminator View Post
I don't think counting as deep as the top-10 in a split league scenario makes much sense. Dunderdale led the PCHA in goalscoring three times. He finished 3rd once and 4th once. That's basically his offensive peak, because he wasn't any kind of playmaker in an all-time sense. I have no idea about these "good" seasons in the MHL and CHA, but they most likely add only to his non-peak longevity.

Dunderdale is a good pick here and I think a comparable goal-scoring centerman to Joe Nieuwendyk with an extra physical dimension and without the playoff credentials, but let's not make his non-peak offensive seasons out to be something they're not. Placing in the bottom part of the top-10 in PCHA scoring is basically meaningless. There were only 12 regular forwards in the league most seasons.
I like your reasoning sturm, and share your judgements; sigh, checking in on a day like today (with quality discussion) makes me miss the ATD. Good stuff guys.

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02-25-2011, 07:14 AM
  #49
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I have a doctors appointment this morning and still don't know who to take, if Billy picks soon I'll be back by 11am to make my pick.

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02-25-2011, 07:57 AM
  #50
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Making his 2nd consecutive appearance on Battle Creek's defense corps.

Jim Schoenfeld, D
Good pick - I was really torn between him and Ramsey. Both of them are big, tough, defensive defensemen.

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