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So What Now? Panic? or Patience?

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Old
02-25-2011, 09:57 AM
  #26
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1.) This team went into the season short a top six finisher/scorer (o.k., I/we say this every season).
2.) When Lombardi was two months in and still experiencing his concussion symptoms, it was pretty clear he was way, way beyond the normal 2-3 weeks recovery we see alot and the Preds failed to address the center position. I said this several times as November slipped into December and it was pretty clear that this was going to be a major issue. This was the same time frame as Legwand going out and yet Poile did absolutely nothing until late December with the Mueller call up. By that point, it was too late because the Preds had squandered several games by not having a consistent offensive threat, all flowing I believe, from the failure to address key losses at center. Then Cal O went down. Fisher's acquisition really only returned the Preds to were they were before Lombardi. Also Goc gone. Even if Poile address center earlier, it still wouldn't have meant anything for the Goc and Cal O losses, but they wouldn't have wasted all of those Nov/Dec games and those critical points.
3.) PP. You can't win if you can't be at least average on the PP. The Preds failed to address this and Trotz taking responsibility for it has done nothing.
4.) Right now, 26/71/22 are giving you absolutely nothing. They're not even reliable enough to eat some minutes. That's 1/4 of your forwards who are more liabilities than anything else.
5.) Trotz is reverting to his old self were he thinks running the It Is What It Is Duo out there with whoever the third guy is makes sense when the team is in need of goals. Also, he's corrupting any offensive flow (ha, ha) with his terrible line management (again).
6.) Trotz has completely messed up Wilson. He's been inconsistent, but decent when placed with good line mates. The way Trotz has jerked him around is killing his offensive instincts and kills any momentum he might get from continued exposure to more skilled players. I worry about his continued development with the way he's been yo-yo'd around.
7.) This team is terribly inconsistent. Acquiring one player will not do much for this group. The only way I do a rental is if I can shed 26/71 as part of the deal and any warm body from Milwaukee to fill the opening. I would be very interested in somebody more long term if it addresses needs this year AND for next year---one of the reasons I liked the Fisher deal. My untouchable group of prospects includes Blum(still only two games)/Josi and whatever forward in the system has any offensive upside---everybody else is expendable.

Bottom line, I don't do anything unless it's an addition by subtraction kind of deal for a rental, and even then, I just don't see how much any one player is going to help. Plus, the seeding will be bad again if they make the playoffs, and what makes anybody think this bunch has what it takes to take a series unless it's during one of their "good" weeks?

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02-25-2011, 10:19 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
Here's what I'd like to see.

Line 2.
Sk-Legwand-Erat
Line 2.
Wilson-Fisher-Hornqvist
Line 3.
Ward-Spaling-Smithson
Line4
Dumont/Tootoo/Sullivan really who cares I don't want them playing more than 7 minutes.
I like these lines, but I would take line 4, throw sully away, and bring mueller and halischuk up from Milwaukee.......tootoo, eh........don't know.

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02-25-2011, 10:59 AM
  #28
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After doing some research, this is what I came up with about our home record:

We are 14-7-7 at home (35 points in 28 games at a 1.25 pts/game clip which equals a 62.5 win% where the NHL average at home is 1.16 pts/game or 58 win%). So not bad.

But look at this:

Sold out games we are 5-4-2 at home (12 points in 11 games -- 1.09 pts/game or 54.5 win%).

In games where we have over 94% attendance (< 16,000) we are 6-5-4 at home (16 points in 15 games -- 1.07 pts/game or 53.5 win%).

Which means in games where we have less than 16,000 people, we are 8-2-3 (19 points in 13 games -- 1.46 pts/game or a 73 win%).


Can't believe there is that much of a difference. Maybe it is because we play a less quality opponent on smaller crowd nights? Either way... Amazing to me.

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02-25-2011, 11:10 AM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by utmfisher19 View Post
After doing some research, this is what I came up with about our home record:

We are 14-7-7 at home (35 points in 28 games at a 1.25 pts/game clip which equals a 62.5 win% where the NHL average at home is 1.16 pts/game or 58 win%). So not bad.

But look at this:

Sold out games we are 5-4-2 at home (12 points in 11 games -- 1.09 pts/game or 54.5 win%).

In games where we have over 94% attendance (< 16,000) we are 6-5-4 at home (16 points in 15 games -- 1.07 pts/game or 53.5 win%).

Which means in games where we have less than 16,000 people, we are 8-2-3 (19 points in 13 games -- 1.46 pts/game or a 73 win%).


Can't believe there is that much of a difference. Maybe it is because we play a less quality opponent on smaller crowd nights? Either way... Amazing to me.
The cool thing about Math and stats is you can make them say different things to suit your argument...

I see 14-7-7 as winning 50% of the games as opposed to your 62%

5-4-2 as only 45%

6-5-4 as only 40%

and 8-2-3 as only 61%

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02-25-2011, 11:41 AM
  #30
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so pint percentage is a better indicator

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02-25-2011, 11:55 AM
  #31
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Panic. We are not a playoff team. We couldn't score in a bar full of sorority girls. Our defense is not the issue. It is our scoring. Anyone who says differently is making a house of cards argument.

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02-25-2011, 12:01 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legionnaire11 View Post
The cool thing about Math and stats is you can make them say different things to suit your argument...

I see 14-7-7 as winning 50% of the games as opposed to your 62%

5-4-2 as only 45%

6-5-4 as only 40%

and 8-2-3 as only 61%
Guess you missed where i said the average NHL team (I took all of their home points and divided by games played) is at 1.16 pts/game or 58 win%. So you must be at 1.16 pts/game (or 58 win%) at home in order to be exactly at .500. But yes, you can make stats say anything you want them to if you calculate them incorrectly.

Twist it how you like, but that is how you actually calculate win% in the NHL. What your Win% is based on the average Win%.

So at 14-7-7, we are 4% above average. At 5-4-2, we are 3.5% below average. At 6-5-4, we are 4.5% below average. And at 8-2-3, we are 15% above average.

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02-25-2011, 12:13 PM
  #33
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I don't have much time so I'll highlight a few things.

1) Trade away Sullivan/Dumont or at least make a deal where we can sit these guys.

2) Put Wilson on a decent line.

3) Add Sulzer. Sit Klein or Franson (Send a message to them if they don't pick it up, they will be benched)

4) Change our practices, if we don't spend 80% of practice working on shooting and scoring, we are wasting our time.

5) Look for a scorer, and I'm not talking a grinder scorer, I want a sniper who can handle the puck and make moves.

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02-25-2011, 12:21 PM
  #34
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3) Add Sulzer. Sit Klein or Franson (Send a message to them if they don't pick it up, they will be benched) traded ten min ago


4) Change our practices, if we don't spend 80% of practice working on shooting and scoring, we are wasting our time. I don't think you have ever been to a practice, and if you have, you don't pay attention. there is more to hockey than this.

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02-25-2011, 12:33 PM
  #35
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Taken from another poster, but it resonates.


The problem here is that once again we don't have anyone that anyone wants at the price they will have to pay. You can't get people interested in taking a Leggy or an Erat if they aren't worth a damn and they cost you 3+m a year. Those two crappy deals have been pulling this team down and will continue to for YEEEEEARS. At the same time you don't want to mortgage the future by trading all your prospects.

However, at this point, TODAY, with Sully out, on top of all the other injuries, Poile needs to decide...In or out, buyer or seller. Here's where he earns his money. I can't see how he can't be a buyer with sellouts going on.

Time for a BIG deal. A serious move, one way or the other. Build for the future or make a showing this year?

In other words...To be or not...To be, That is the question.

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02-25-2011, 12:39 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by utmfisher19 View Post
Guess you missed where i said the average NHL team (I took all of their home points and divided by games played) is at 1.16 pts/game or 58 win%. So you must be at 1.16 pts/game (or 58 win%) at home in order to be exactly at .500. But yes, you can make stats say anything you want them to if you calculate them incorrectly.

Twist it how you like, but that is how you actually calculate win% in the NHL. What your Win% is based on the average Win%.

So at 14-7-7, we are 4% above average. At 5-4-2, we are 3.5% below average. At 6-5-4, we are 4.5% below average. And at 8-2-3, we are 15% above average.
I didn't miss anything, just saying that winning 14 out of 28 is 50% and that's not great, it's not aweful, but it has to be better to be considered a contender. No OTL/SOL in the playoffs when it counts!

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02-25-2011, 12:59 PM
  #37
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We have a pretty creative guy down with the Ads we may end up with. Seems to be bored down there...

Trade for a forward and bring him up!

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02-25-2011, 02:10 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Preds Partisan View Post
1.) This team went into the season short a top six finisher/scorer (o.k., I/we say this every season).

--Snip--
I agree with all of this, basically. Especially 5/6. Trotz is horrible at man-management and line combinations. Wilson with Ward/Smithson?

Pathetic. Wilson's development is going to be down the drain soon. I really hope he gets traded and shows what he could have been.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kakemono View Post
We have a pretty creative guy down with the Ads we may end up with. Seems to be bored down there...

Trade for a forward and bring him up!
Why, so Trotz can throw him on a grind line?

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02-25-2011, 02:18 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legionnaire11 View Post
I didn't miss anything, just saying that winning 14 out of 28 is 50% and that's not great, it's not aweful, but it has to be better to be considered a contender. No OTL/SOL in the playoffs when it counts!
I agree. But I think the discussion should be about getting into the playoffs right now. Not winning IN the playoffs.

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02-25-2011, 02:38 PM
  #40
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The departure of Svatos, Sulzer, and Belak opens up about $2mil in season long cap space, three spots on the big club roster, and two contracts from the limit. The team is in a decent position to take on a player, the only question is who.

Sully back to IR isn't a good sign. Still no expected return date for Cube or Lombardi. So many places we could use an upgrade ... so little money to do it with.

It's going to be an interesting couple of days.

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02-25-2011, 02:47 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
The departure of Svatos, Sulzer, and Belak opens up about $2mil in season long cap space, three spots on the big club roster, and two contracts from the limit. The team is in a decent position to take on a player, the only question is who.

Sully back to IR isn't a good sign. Still no expected return date for Cube or Lombardi. So many places we could use an upgrade ... so little money to do it with.

It's going to be an interesting couple of days.
It's a great sign. That means he won't be in the lineup. Not trying to be mean but he's sucked since he's been back. Love his heart and soul but he has been invisible.

Lombardi is out for the year. Read somewhere that Lombardi, O'Reilly and Goc are all done.

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02-25-2011, 02:53 PM
  #42
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ok, so this sucks, but what now?

we have done this before this year, and pulled out of it.

but we will soon be looking up at the 8th spot.

What does(or should) Poile do in the next 90 hours?

Get desperate and trade multiple picks/prospects for immediate help to try to make it in this year?

or stick to the plan and hope we counter this losing streak with another win streak?

with the big increase in attendance that has happened so far, and after being so high in the standings for so long, would missing the playoffs be a deadly buzzkill that would negate all this progress?

Or does it make no sense to be aggressive since at best we are a 6-8 seed/1st round underdog anyway?

discuss
I don't think it would negate all progress, but I think if we could give the new fans a trip to the first round of the playoffs it'd further solidify the numbers we're now seeing and help them carry those attendence #'s into next season.

Miss the playoff and we take a step backward attendance wise, but only after we've taken two steps forwards.

So I guess there's a limit that Poile has to find where he spends/gives up enough to get to the playoffs to solidify his revenue stream without giving up too much since our asseth will be kickethd in round one anyway

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02-25-2011, 03:02 PM
  #43
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It's a great sign. That means he won't be in the lineup. Not trying to be mean but he's sucked since he's been back. Love his heart and soul but he has been invisible.

Lombardi is out for the year. Read somewhere that Lombardi, O'Reilly and Goc are all done.
A player going invisible for a stretch with the Preds isn't newsworthy. With Sully on IR, the team is not only looking to get that upgrade player we wanted before Sully disappeared but now we need to replace Sully's earlier performance along with Goc's. Basically we still need two forwards even after getting Fisher. The depth that carried the team this far is pretty much exhausted with a player to be named later needed just to get the team to 12 healthy, quality forwards.

Take your pick, we could use a player at almost every position and don't have a lot of cap room to play with.

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02-25-2011, 03:40 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
A player going invisible for a stretch with the Preds isn't newsworthy. With Sully on IR, the team is not only looking to get that upgrade player we wanted before Sully disappeared but now we need to replace Sully's earlier performance along with Goc's. Basically we still need two forwards even after getting Fisher. The depth that carried the team this far is pretty much exhausted with a player to be named later needed just to get the team to 12 healthy, quality forwards.

Take your pick, we could use a player at almost every position and don't have a lot of cap room to play with.
I don't think it's as severe as you think. I think the reason certain people have disappeared is because of Sully being inserted back in the lineup. Not only was Sully invisible, it put Wilson on a line with Smithson and Ward making him useless, ala Legwand version 2.0. Reunite Wilson with Hornqvist and Legwand and we resurrect a few guys that have gone invisible as of late. Have that as our number 2 or 1 line with Fisher centering Erat and SK and see what happens. Heck, juggle the wings with Legwand and Fisher until we find something that works. I honestly didn't mind Leggy with Erat and SK the little I saw of them. Use Fisher with Wilson and Hornqvist and you have two completely types of lines. One speed with a lot of creativity and one with a bangers sort of approach to them.

This is where I agree with you in the sense that making up two more lines is a lot more difficult to come up with. We could do one of two things, use Smitty with Ward and Spaling and then team Tootoo and Dumont with either Mueller or Halischuk but I think that leaves that line without a center. Not sure of Hali can play the middle. If he can't then I'd go with Spaling centering Dumont and Hali with Tootoo being on the wing of Smitty with Ward on the other side. Let those two lines decide who want it more on the ice between hustle and production and let the chips fall where they may but give the top two lines 18-20 minutes a night with the other two lines splitting the last 20-24 minutes.

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02-25-2011, 03:41 PM
  #45
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3) Add Sulzer. Sit Klein or Franson (Send a message to them if they don't pick it up, they will be benched) traded ten min ago


4) Change our practices, if we don't spend 80% of practice working on shooting and scoring, we are wasting our time. I don't think you have ever been to a practice, and if you have, you don't pay attention. there is more to hockey than this.
Theres more to any sport than any one thing, but take for example: A team is losing because their offense sucks. Do you spend all practice working on offense and defense equally like always? and continue to lose? Or do you change the process and gear your practices to a more offensive/play oriented setting? I realize it's not just sitting there shooting the entire time, but honestly...we look pitiful out there and if we don't pick it up Saturday, we might be sellers on Monday.

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02-25-2011, 03:54 PM
  #46
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I don't think it's as severe as you think. I think the reason certain people have disappeared is because of Sully being inserted back in the lineup. Not only was Sully invisible, it put Wilson on a line with Smithson and Ward making him useless, ala Legwand version 2.0. Reunite Wilson with Hornqvist and Legwand and we resurrect a few guys that have gone invisible as of late. Have that as our number 2 or 1 line with Fisher centering Erat and SK and see what happens. Heck, juggle the wings with Legwand and Fisher until we find something that works. I honestly didn't mind Leggy with Erat and SK the little I saw of them. Use Fisher with Wilson and Hornqvist and you have two completely types of lines. One speed with a lot of creativity and one with a bangers sort of approach to them.

This is where I agree with you in the sense that making up two more lines is a lot more difficult to come up with. We could do one of two things, use Smitty with Ward and Spaling and then team Tootoo and Dumont with either Mueller or Halischuk but I think that leaves that line without a center. Not sure of Hali can play the middle. If he can't then I'd go with Spaling centering Dumont and Hali with Tootoo being on the wing of Smitty with Ward on the other side. Let those two lines decide who want it more on the ice between hustle and production and let the chips fall where they may but give the top two lines 18-20 minutes a night with the other two lines splitting the last 20-24 minutes.
I agree with your first paragraph and sully and wilson, etc.

but I disagree with the top 2 lines having such heavy minutes.... I think we roll better when we are able to put 4 lines out there with shorter minutes.. harder to defend and just better for the team "psyche"....


Put dumont back with "2 forwards from the admirals"...

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02-25-2011, 04:05 PM
  #47
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I agree with your first paragraph and sully and wilson, etc.

but I disagree with the top 2 lines having such heavy minutes.... I think we roll better when we are able to put 4 lines out there with shorter minutes.. harder to defend and just better for the team "psyche"....


Put dumont back with "2 forwards from the admirals"...
Problem with that, it's basically the playoffs now. You have to play your top players more minutes. That's what happens in the playoffs. Part of the reason we have issues scoring is our low end guys are getting too many minutes and not producing any sort of offense.

I understand what you're saying about the minutes but if these guys can't go another 2 minutes per night then either our conditioning coach needs to be fired or these guys need to suck it up. Realistically 2 minutes is one more shift per period. It's not like I'm asking for the world.

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02-25-2011, 04:12 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
Problem with that, it's basically the playoffs now. You have to play your top players more minutes. That's what happens in the playoffs. Part of the reason we have issues scoring is our low end guys are getting too many minutes and not producing any sort of offense.

I understand what you're saying about the minutes but if these guys can't go another 2 minutes per night then either our conditioning coach needs to be fired or these guys need to suck it up. Realistically 2 minutes is one more shift per period. It's not like I'm asking for the world.
true enough about the conditioning minutes.

but i think that with a team built like ours........we will have to have more scoring out of the 3rd and 4th line, than other teams......that is how we will win...

however, with scoring coming from nowhere right now....it's kind of a moot point

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02-25-2011, 04:30 PM
  #49
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true enough about the conditioning minutes.

but i think that with a team built like ours........we will have to have more scoring out of the 3rd and 4th line, than other teams......that is how we will win...

however, with scoring coming from nowhere right now....it's kind of a moot point
They couldn't score in a brothel with a stack of hundred dollar bills.

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02-25-2011, 04:54 PM
  #50
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You know, it isn't like we were ahead by 10 points and lost ground. It's been a 2-3 point swing for about 3 weeks now between 4th and 11th. We're streaky. Right now I'm patient.

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