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Old
02-01-2011, 02:49 PM
  #76
kivaerijo
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Originally Posted by Joetimo View Post
In that case, poile not only matches your offer he gives Holland the finger and tells him where he can go..
not to mention poile and holland are pretty good friends that respect eachother..hard to see them screwing with eachother..but you never know.

and I dont see 7 mil being an issue, but would bet that the term will be longer than 3 years. thinking 6-6.5 for 6+ years

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02-01-2011, 05:27 PM
  #77
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How does the Lombardi contract work with him on LTIR?

I have read here on HF that Preds have no contract insurance on him due to concussion history. So, unless there's a stop-loss type clause in that contract (that, perhaps, specifies a reduction in salary after a certain period of time or number of missed games), then the Preds basically 'lose' 3.5 million this year for Lombardi playing <2 games. By the same token, do the Preds 'lose' 7 million the next two years if Lombardi never comes back?

This is a huge unknown for me and is necessarily pivotal in team payroll planning.

There's a huge difference from Poile saying to Weber/Suter:

"We want to lock you both up long term so we can concentrate on significant upgrades to the forward corps over the next 3-5 years; and thereby be a serious cup contender for the mid-term and the long-term."

Versus, the same with an added caveat:

"But, we have to wait 2 more years until the 7 million drain from the Lombardi contract ends before we can spend serious money on serious forwards."

Can someone in the know about such matters answer these questions or point me towards where they already are answered? Thank you.

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02-01-2011, 06:42 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by MoveTheTeamAlready View Post
How does the Lombardi contract work with him on LTIR?

I have read here on HF that Preds have no contract insurance on him due to concussion history. So, unless there's a stop-loss type clause in that contract (that, perhaps, specifies a reduction in salary after a certain period of time or number of missed games), then the Preds basically 'lose' 3.5 million this year for Lombardi playing <2 games. By the same token, do the Preds 'lose' 7 million the next two years if Lombardi never comes back?

This is a huge unknown for me and is necessarily pivotal in team payroll planning.

There's a huge difference from Poile saying to Weber/Suter:

"We want to lock you both up long term so we can concentrate on significant upgrades to the forward corps over the next 3-5 years; and thereby be a serious cup contender for the mid-term and the long-term."

Versus, the same with an added caveat:

"But, we have to wait 2 more years until the 7 million drain from the Lombardi contract ends before we can spend serious money on serious forwards."

Can someone in the know about such matters answer these questions or point me towards where they already are answered? Thank you.
I wouldn't consider myself an expert but, AFAIK, Lombardi's contract is guaranteed and we owe him $7M no matter what. Only options are Lombardi retiring (which would never happen), or Nashville buying him out at 2/3's his salary (very unlikely to happen). Best we can do is hope he recovers someday.

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02-01-2011, 10:44 PM
  #79
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If Suter and Weber are going to sign long term deals of 6 years or more than i dont think they will worry about the preds have 3.5 mil less to spend for two seasons. that may hinder us for those two years but if you think about it suters new deal wont start until lombardis contract is in its third year anyway, so for the vast majority of their new deals that drain wouldnt be there

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02-02-2011, 09:00 AM
  #80
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Yes, but..... we need to sign one more true top 6 forward, really a 1st line guy, and if we're eating Lombardi's contract, we'll just be treading water signing someone to replace him. While it's true that we'll be almost through it by the time Suter's deal will come up, it's another example of "it's always something". At some point, I think we're going to have to be able to show Weber and Suter that we can spend when it makes sense and can keep the team above the "competitive for the last 2 playoff spots" level.

Mr. Poile - we're sitting in 4th, game in hand on the guys right behind us, 5 points behind the deadthings who have 2 in hand on us. We need a 3rd center. I like Mueller and he'll be great replacing Ward on the Smitty line next year, but...... this is not only about us getting home ice (and maybe even making a run at the wings if they burn those 2 game in hand) but it does send a message to Weber and Suter we will pay-to-play as it makes sense.

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02-02-2011, 09:57 AM
  #81
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If anything the Lombardi injury situation is one of the flaws in the new CBA/salary cap structure.

A team is allowed to exceed the upper limit in the case of salary that is replacing an injured player. However, it has no effect on your cap if you have yet to reach the upper limit. Which means that a team who spends to the midpoint in order to maximize revenue sharing is more handcuffed by a key long term injury than teams who spend to the upper limit. Assuming the Preds were willing to spend the money to replace Lombardi with a decent talent, they would be spending on Lombardi, plus his replacement as well as losing out on revenue sharing because of it.

A better system would have been to just exclude an injured players salary from the cap hit (only for the amount of time missed) if say the injury lasts more than 10 or 30 days. That would allow a team like the Preds to fill Lombardi's absence without being penalized with a loss of revenue sharing.

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02-02-2011, 05:36 PM
  #82
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This thread has brought up some great discussion.
I agree with posters who point to the team's perceived ability to compete for a cup as being key factors that could cause one of Weber or Suter to hesitate to sign here. I am not sure that is truly dependent on Nashville signing some highly regarded scorer-- I think Nashville's post season performance (while important to both) has more impact on Suter's thinking than Weber's right now, as he approaches UFA status. And if those two are NOT aware how the two together are better than they are apart, they need their heads examined.
Best case scenario-- the pieces fall into place immediately after the season ends, which I hope is far into the post season.

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02-02-2011, 07:20 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by darth5 View Post
This thread has brought up some great discussion.
I agree with posters who point to the team's perceived ability to compete for a cup as being key factors that could cause one of Weber or Suter to hesitate to sign here. I am not sure that is truly dependent on Nashville signing some highly regarded scorer-- I think Nashville's post season performance (while important to both) has more impact on Suter's thinking than Weber's right now, as he approaches UFA status. And if those two are NOT aware how the two together are better than they are apart, they need their heads examined.
Best case scenario-- the pieces fall into place immediately after the season ends, which I hope is far into the post season.
After watching the All-Star game this weekend and seeing the Olympics last year, your statement isn't all together true. Not saying I disagree because both compliment each other tremendously on the ice. However, Weber was paired with Niedermayer at the Olympics and shined because Scott's style of play is very similar to that of Suter's. Weber just played with Lidstrom at the all-star game, and while it's not a true measure of their play, they pretty much dominated out there.

Suter, at the Olympics was paired with Rafalski and while he's always been a great player, he sure had the tournament of his career paired with Suter.

On the flip side, when Weber was paired with Bouillon, a second/third tier type defenseman, his game suffered tremendously. So to me, their play is dependent on their defense partner as much as it is together. If you were to put Weber with a guy like Enstrom, I bet they'd form a pretty solid duo. If you have Suter with a guy like Kronwall or Girardi, I would bet you'd still have a pretty formidable pairing. Unfortunately, Bouillon isn't at the level of these guys and there is a tremendous drop off in talent and it was obvious. It's not the Weber became a bad player, he just had to overcompensate for his partner.

I bet would could trade Weber and Seabrook and a Keith/Weber combo would be just as good as a Seabrook/Suter combo. To me it all comes down to who they're paired with. In some cased they'll continue to shine, in others, they'll struggle.

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02-02-2011, 10:45 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
A few things that I've been pondering.

1. Does the new ownership want to play with the big boys? If so then Weber and Suter's contracts are not an issue. If they don't, we will become the Oakland A's of hockey.

2. How does Poile handle our salary structure for our players and any prospective free agents. Does he do like Detroit's done, say, no one gets paid more than Lidstrom and everyone else falls in line or do contracts get signed according to the players themselves. I think following the Detroit model makes the most sense. Say, Weber and Suter are our most valuable players, they make the most, no one else makes what they make.

3. What do Weber and Suter expect to make? First off, if you compare them to guys like Dion, J-Bo and Campbell, they should make that or more. If Poile comes back and says, look, Duncan Keith was the Norris Trophy winner and he signed a long term deal for less money than Campbell. Will Weber and Suter be ok with making less than guys that aren't their equals on the ice?

4. All players want to play for a winner and have a shot at the Cup. Do Weber and Suter feel they have that chance here? Do they feel the need to lead this team to the next level? Do they like playing in Nashville or would playing in a bigger market be more to their liking? Do they want to erase the memory of being up in Game 5 with 13 seconds to go and a chance to clinch a victory on home ice or do they move on? Only they can answer those questions.

5. What teams realistically have the cap space to offer Weber a contract and fit him under the cap? Also, depending on the size of the contract, does that team have the draft picks to offer Nashville what is would require in compensation?

6. Do Weber and Suter realize they are better as a pairing then individually and would they want to split that chemistry up?

7. I am a little concerned that Weber hasn't been locked up because I remember at the SOTU in the summer they said the contract would be taken care of before camp and the season starts. The fact that it's now February does have me concerned but bottom line is, even if Weber signs an offer sheet, we have the right to match it.

8. The salaries of Sully and Dumont should cover any raises that are due Weber and Suter. Not to be mean to Sully and Dumont but our team has played pretty well in the absence of Sully and with Dumont getting limited minutes. I like their veteran presence but guys like Spaling, Halischuk and Mueller have all stepped up to play bigger roles than expected this season. Our top 6 could use some minor tweaking/upgrades but I'm pretty happy with what we've got. Assuming we have Lombardi and O'Reilly back at full strength next year, I think we'll be ok and if Lombardi isn't able to go, we can use that money to sign a decent forward up front to replace him.

Basically the money is there if we wish to spend it on these two, the question becomes, will we. I have seen no indications to say we won't. If we were willing to give Hornqvist a three year deal at the rate he's getting, I can't imagine the owners won't pony up the money for Weber.
great questions. great post. now we wait til something gets done, if at all.


btw, I think Poile pulls thru with longterm Weber & Suter deal's. If not i expect Suter to stay and Weber to net us our offensive savior.


Last edited by CantbeatzPekka: 02-07-2011 at 07:37 PM.
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Old
02-03-2011, 02:43 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
...So to me, their play is dependent on their defense partner as much as it is together. ... To me it all comes down to who they're paired with. In some cased they'll continue to shine, in others, they'll struggle.
I see your point and concede it.
With that understood, either player is bound to consider potential destinations based on who they could be paired with. I would be willing to wager there are at nearly a dozen teams that could provide a complimentary D partner-- which ones are Cup contenders, which is the only element missing here?

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02-07-2011, 05:13 PM
  #86
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I have heard they are starting to talk contract right now

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02-07-2011, 05:34 PM
  #87
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I agree with the posts above that paying Suter/Weber isn't a problem-- you can use Sully and Dumont dollars to get them both to $6.5M.

You save some money by losing Ward/SOB (likely) and pay a bit more with some salary increases that are due. Most of the other UFA can be replaced within the system for roughly the same dollars (Blum for Sulzer) but it will cost you a couple of hundred thousand per for those.

Bottom line is probably the ability to bring in a $3.5M/yr type of guy (Mike Fisher) or a rental (Arnott) but not a pricier guy (Kessel) unless you shed salary. The only major salaries to be shed would be NTC guys (Dumont the most likely) or non-contributing (Lombardi), so I'd judge that as highly unlikely.

I tend to favor a rental or sticking with the current group, given our depth of forwards, understanding the risk that we fail to score enough to make an impact. If Weber signed long-term PRIOR to the trade deadline (which I think he will) and for sure if he signs for less than $6.5M, then I'd be more in favor a bigger splash (in part because I think Suter signs and we are safer giving up some defensive assets).

My guess is Poile will use the trade deadline to try to wrap up a contract.

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02-08-2011, 12:33 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Legionnaire11 View Post
I don't think the fanbase would implode if we lost Weber.

1. Our hardcore base of season ticket holders (7-8k)? will remain no matter what happens. They love the players, but know that the team and enjoying NHL hockey is most important.

2. The majority of Nashville still falls under the casual fan category who know Shea Weber but don't go to games to see him, they go to have a good time.

You may see some of the in between fans get upset and not show up as often, but only until they find the next Pred that excites them. The team survived the loss of Walker, Vokoun, Timonen, Hartnell and Kariya. They survived an entire season lost to lockout and a potential relocation. They have never won a playoff series yet attendance continues to grow.

Losing Weber would hurt, but would not be the end of the Preds.
Ugh, hearing about Vokoun, Timonen and Hartnell still hurts.

Keeping Shea is important not only for the fans, but for the rep of the team as a whole I think. I remember when Kariya came here, he seemed to give the Preds legitimacy around the league...that a guy like Paul Kariya would choose Nashville when he could play anywhere made people notice us. Same thing with Forsberg. It energized the fans b/c it let us know the team was serious about wanting to be a Cup contender, and it made everybody else in the league take notice. Keeping Shea would do the same thing.

I have no inside source to know how he feels about staying or not staying here, but I'm seriously hoping he wants to stay. I met his longtime girlfriend awhile back and she had recently graduated from college and moved here from Canada, so he's got her in town now. It still has to be tempting to play for ridic amounts of money close to home though...

Do you guys think offer sheets are really coming? I've always assumed they would, but I was talking with someone else about it last week and they seemed to think Poile has too much respect around the league for GMs to run around dropping offer sheet bombs on him. I dunno if it really works that way in the NHL...if anybody gives a hoot about how respected the GM is when you're talking about the possibility of getting an awesome player...but I hope it does!

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02-08-2011, 09:48 AM
  #89
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I dont think its as much a question of respect for Poile as it is nobody would give up 4 1st rounders for Weber.

Hes great but thats just stupid.

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02-08-2011, 09:51 AM
  #90
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Still not feeling good about us resigning weber... I wonder if he wants poile to make a commitment about winning this year and actually get a scorer at the deadline...

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02-08-2011, 10:50 AM
  #91
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My guess at it.

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02-08-2011, 12:26 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post


My guess at it.
I'll be honest BFC, I can't quite follow that spreadsheet.

Generated by CapGeek's 2011-2012 Cap Calculator with the cap increased $3 million over this year:

CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Patric Hornqvist ($3.083m) / David Legwand ($4.500m) / Colin Wilson ($1.725m)
Martin Erat ($4.500m) / Matthew Lombardi ($3.500m) / Sergei Kostitsyn ($2.250m)
Jordin Tootoo ($1.250m) / Jerred Smithson ($0.800m) / Nick Spaling ($0.900m)
J.P. Dumont ($4.000m) / Marcel Goc ($1.500m) / Marek Svatos ($0.800m)
Wade Belak ($0.575m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan Suter ($3.500m) / Shea Weber ($6.500m)
Francis Bouillon ($1.350m) / Kevin Klein ($1.350m)
Cody Franson ($0.800m) / Jonathon Blum ($0.941m)

GOALTENDERS
Pekka Rinne ($3.400m) /Anders Lindback ($0.875m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $48,100,000; BONUSES: $1,112,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $15,412,500

Note that this produces a salary just above the floor if you don't include bonuses (likely to not be achieved).

So, there's quite a bit of room to do somethings and/or make a few different choices (someone else instead of Svatos, etc.).

Re-signed:

Weber @ $6.5
Kostitsyn @ $2.25
Goc @ $1.5
Spaling @ $.9
Svatos @ $.8 (or some other fast player with offensive skills in the $1 million range)

Explicitly did not re-sign:

Joel Ward (Kept the returning Jordin Tootoo and re-signed Nick Spaling; also Geoffrion awaits)
Steve Sullivan (Svatos is younger and cheaper; Sully might produce more, but we're talking about a fourth line spot here)
Cal O'Reilly (Favored Goc's two-way play at the third center over O'Reilly's offensive skills)



Money is no problem for this team right now if one can presume that the midpoint of the cap is a good indicator of the real budget.

And money won't matter when Suter's and Wilson's contracts come up for renewal (Dumont's salary + likely cap increase) either. Or Rinne's and Hornqvist's (likely cap increase).

There's only one thing that could potentially get in the way of Poile re-signing all three of Weber, Suter and Rinne: either the inability to acquire (as in unavailable to sign or trade for) or the unwillingness to acquire (too costly to acquire not including actual salary) an elite forward to allow the team to breakthrough to that next level. If it's not done, even though there is room to do so, it might inspire one or more of Weber, Suter, and Rinne to walk at the first opportunity (if I were an elite player, I would).

There's only one potential elite forward hitting free agency after this season and it's Brad Richards.

That means that David Poile will likely need to press harder to acquire that forward via a trade. He's going to have to come off some of that stockpile in talent he's got at his disposal. He's got young forwards in Kostitsyn, Wilson and Horqnvist that are likely going to be a part of his top six for many years anyway.

If he doesn't, I think (meaning my opinion, and only my opinion with no inside knowledge whatsoever) that none of Weber, Suter or Rinne will be Predators beyond 2012-2013 at the latest (assuming Weber gives Poile two years). If I was the elite player that any of them are, I certainly wouldn't. They have a finite amount of time to reach their goal of winning a Stanley Cup and they need to do everything they can to achieve it. If they don't then they aren't the competitive and driven players I think they are.


Last edited by David Singleton: 02-08-2011 at 12:33 PM.
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02-08-2011, 01:21 PM
  #93
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So my question is this. The mid-way point of the cap, is it figured off of actually salary or salary cap hit? I know certain things are based off actual salary, didn't know if this was one.

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02-08-2011, 01:25 PM
  #94
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Mid point is based on how much to spend in that year instead of cap hit, thus the figures for Erat and Rinne who will receive raises next year in their contracts.

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02-08-2011, 01:35 PM
  #95
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Tootoo as well.

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02-08-2011, 01:39 PM
  #96
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I'll be honest BFC, I can't quite follow that spreadsheet.
Ok, Top roster is the current situation for the team. The bottom roster is what I expect for 11-12. To the right side is column showing. The pay raises and where the cash will be coming from.

Factors:

Leftovers ----> The Preds are currently 1.5 million under the current midpoint and that can be used to spend on UFAS. That's not including the rookie bonuses which have not been cashed in.

Revenue sharing bump ----->The speculation is that the Cap will go up 3 million. Thus the Rev. Sharing will go up 3 million. How do I know this? Every time the cap went up, the Preds spent that much more each year. Ever then, the UFAs leaving will pay for the guys the Preds want to stay.

I slathered on the cash for the RFA's and UFAs simply because I'm not too sure what the contracts will look like next year. Philly gave Nashville a starting point by offering Leino 3 mil a year for SK's contract. I gave SK a 2.5 Million dollar contract but it could be less. Goc got a 2.25 contract.

Roster wise: SK replaces Sullivan, Laakso replaces Sulzer (Only because Laakso is an RFA and Sulzer is a UFA), You had Blum but I had Josi replacing O'Brien, and Halischuk taking Ward's spot on the roster.

Had to look at this, this way, to see what Nashville should aim for. Next year if Goc is signed, Nashville will have 6 centers and that's with Wilson at wing. UFA top 6 Center is the need. Wing wise, the Preds will be stocked unless they make a move to dump a wing.

As I have said before, the cash isn't the problem, it's the will to sign.

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02-08-2011, 01:51 PM
  #97
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Tootoo as well.
Changed and still doesn't effect things because it's only 200K

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02-08-2011, 02:28 PM
  #98
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So my question is this. The mid-way point of the cap, is it figured off of actually salary or salary cap hit? I know certain things are based off actual salary, didn't know if this was one.
Mid-point of the cap is based upon the cap hit. As is determination of whether a team would receive revenue sharing (I need to verify that last bit).

Now, the actual budget for Nashville is certainly affected by the actual salary paid. If the revenue projection, which would include full revenue sharing, is for say $2 million more than the mid-point (dollar-wise), Poile might be authorized to spend some of that $2 million in real money provided he doesn't exceed the mid-point from a cap-hit perspective (endangering the revenue sharing and that projection). And vice-versa of course.

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02-08-2011, 02:36 PM
  #99
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Mid-point of the cap is based upon the cap hit. As is determination of whether a team would receive revenue sharing (I need to verify that last bit).

Now, the actual budget for Nashville is certainly affected by the actual salary paid. If the revenue projection, which would include full revenue sharing, is for say $2 million more than the mid-point (dollar-wise), Poile might be authorized to spend some of that $2 million in real money provided he doesn't exceed the mid-point from a cap-hit perspective (endangering the revenue sharing and that projection). And vice-versa of course.
Let me add to this.

If Weber agrees to a long-term contract with a $6.5 million cap-hit, but actually pays $8.5 million in the first few seasons, then the impact to Nashville's budget would be the $8.5 million and Nashville would have $2 million less to spend even though they are nowhere near the cap midpoint.

That's why Nashville would have a hard time competing with heavily front-loaded contracts without having proper balance with equally back-loaded contracts. It's likely why you don't see too much variation from year to year with Nashville's contracts.

In this case, guaranteed contracts help in that someone signed to $80 million total will get that regardless and doesn't have to worry about getting as much as possible up-front due to the possibility of getting cut or injured. Of course, getting money sooner is certainly not a bad thing either.

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02-26-2011, 11:09 AM
  #100
glenngineer
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Spring Hill, TN
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With Seabrook about to re-up with Chicage for a little under $6 million per season for 5 years, this sets an interesting precedent for negotiations with Weber and Suter. Keith is signed for around $5.5 million per and with Seabrook coming in at just under $6 million, how does Poile negotiate with our two? I think it's funny they're giving Seabrook more money than a guy that just won the Norris trophy and is actually the better player between the two. Where does that leave us with Weber and Suter?

Does Poile use these two salaries as comparisons but if I'm their agents, I come back with Campbell's, Phaneuf's and J-Bo's salaries. Gonna be interesting to say the least but if the Chicago guys salaries are what we give our guys, I think we'll be ok. I have this funny feeling, our pair will get more when all is said and done but not a ton more.

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