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The Cap Forces the Kings to Trade Away Salary Next Year

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Old
03-01-2011, 05:33 AM
  #1
Monarchist
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The Cap Forces the Kings to Trade Away Salary Next Year

Next Year:

How can we afford to keep the players signed for 2011-12, the RFAs Doughty, Simmonds, Richardson, Lewis, and Martinez, and ice a full team? Forget about signing the UFA's or Brad Richards.

Signed for 2011-12 are 16 players for $48 million, while the cap will probably be around $60 million, maybe less. Schenn's contract has bonuses so counts for $3.14 million against the cap. I believe there is no bonus cushion since there will be a new CBA the year after.

How much will Doughty cost to resign? Obviously it depends on the term. Brent Seabrook, who like Doughty was not eligible for arbitration, got $5.8 million/year for a five year contract, which takes up one of his UFA years. Jack Johnson, eligible for arbitration (he signed a two year contract after his entry level one) but still a RFA, got $4.36 Million/year for seven years, which takes up five otherwise UFA years, and leaving some of his best years after it (he will be 31 when it expires and as a defenceman that is prime). Jeff Carter, also eligible for arbitration and an RFA, got $5.27 million/year for an 11 year contract taking 10 UFA years, including his prime ones and ones after his prime, as he will be 37 when it ends (and forwards peak earlier).

Doughty could be signed with a low cap hit if he is signed for a very long term that includes years well after his peak. However, since he is a defenceman and the second coming of Ray Borque that would have to be a very long term. Gonchar got $5.5 million/year for his 36-39th years. Signing players for as long as it would have to be is a risk because the player could lose motivation or turn out to be made of toothpicks held together with the glue used on yellow sticky notes (DiPietro).

The most expensive deal would cover some of his prime UFA years. To get him for less, the Kings could just sign him for four years after which he will probably be a UFA (the new CBA isn't written yet!) assuming that doesn't change. A shorter deal would free him to sign his next contract with protection of arbitration, even a one year contract would do that under the current CBA. As a UFA, Lidstrom is getting over $6 million/year at age 40, and non-all-star Paul Martin's UFA years are apparently worth $5 million each. Campbell and Chara make over $7 million/year. Chris Chelios was pulling down an NHL salary years after his death from old age and reincarnation as a zombie.

If he holds out until the off-season, how much could Doughty get? As an RFA he would be free to sign with another team, even a one year deal, and the Kings would just have the right to match and keep him or would lose him and gain draft picks. If another team signs him for roughly less than $6 million, the Kings only get a first round draft pick, a second, and a third; if $6 million to a bit over $7.5 million, two firsts, a second, and a third; if more, four firsts.

What would another team offer him? Detroit and Vancouver have relatively low-value picks and a ton of money coming off the books next year-Detroit notably in one defenceman (Lidstrom), Vancouver in several of the 20 defencemen they're currently carrying on their roster. Sather, the maniac who thought Drury was worth over $7 million/year, Holik $9 million/year, Boogard $1.7 million/year, and Redden $6.5 million/year, has $17 million in cap space to play with this offseason. Burke has a cool $25 million in space, and isn't exactly known for conserving draft picks or evaluating his team pessimistically. Would one of those teams offer him a $7.5 million/year deal at a term Doughty would accept, losing only two firsts, a second, and a third? Say, one year, which would get him arbitration on his next contract but make him the other team's RFA? Or maybe a 15 year deal, freeing him from the risk he will get injured and not make well over $100 million in his career? Maybe a team would go absolutely nuts and offer Doughty over $7.5 per year for a reasonable term? I have to think the Kings must offer something of the same ballpark value to him as what another team would. One consolation is that it looks like Stamkos might be a bigger RFA target, as he is still unsigned.

The Kings have a lot of money available in 2012, not 2011. Doughty could sign a two year deal, leaving him and the Kings ready to optimally exploit the new CBA's loopholes (whatever they will be) and pay him fairly with the gobs of money curretly being used on Smyth, Stoll, Mitchel, and Penner, whose contracts expire then. This is probably the way to offer Doughty the most value, his fair value, with a small cap hit (since any short deal qualifies him for arbitration if it is less than the four years that would make him a UFA [but only under the current system - we don't know exactly what will happen under the next one, though the players will probably not lose rights since the owners are doing so well under the current CBA and the players' association's executive director is unyielding]). The other high-value, low-cap deal is a four year one that takes Doughty to a new UFA contract as soon as is possible, without using any of his valuable UFA years.

In any case, the Kings have to expect to have at least a $6.5 million/year cap hit from him.

That makes 18 players for a $57.5 million cap hit, with a salary cap of about $59.5 million. A set of four minimum wage players would leave the Kings against the cap with no flexibility and undermanned.

Clearly, someone has to go this offseason.

The youngsters the Kings are counting on to fill out the roster are generally making far more than the league minimum: Hickey, Parse, Richardson (RFA), Martinez (RFA), Lewis (RFA), Clifford, Voynov, Loktionov. Depending who makes the team and how much the RFAs get, Kings filler players will be making about doubly the minimum salary of $525K. The Kings must carry 20-23 players at a time on the active roster, and to avoid the short-bench exhaustion that doomed New Jersey this year it's important to be able to ice a full team. Say four players from this list at $1 million each, and one more to replace each high priced player we get rid of, so the savings from each player subtracted from the roster will be about that player's salary minus $1 million. One more to replace Westgarth, who is overpaid making the league minimum. We are up to 22 players and $62 million.

Then, we have Simmonds to resign. The same RFA song and dance as for Doughty, on a smaller scale. A player who brings all of the intangibles-who also brings the tangibles. What is he worth? $3 million/year absolute minimum, probably more. We are up to the target of 23 players and at $65 million are $5.5 million over the target of $59.5 million.

I think the most expendable players are Stoll, Mitchell, and Scuderi. They make about $3.5 million each. It seems two have to go, and we can't resign Zus (or Poni, but I don't care) unless all three do (and Stoll is better than Zus except at screening goalies, and now having Penner and Smyth gives both power play lines a guy to stand in front of the net) or something else happens.

2012, Smyth goes or gets paid far, far less, Penner probably gets less, Stoll and Mitchell have their contracts expire, maybe the cap goes up...and we just have to resign Hickey (following his monster breakout season). The following year, Schenn and both goalies, probably for a fortune.

This group can win the cup, and will get stronger as the best of the deep prospect pool gets promoted. But it has to be this group, since there's no room for Brad Richards or any other big ticket UFA.

Let me know if I am wrong about the CBA, it's a complicated legal document.

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Old
03-01-2011, 07:10 AM
  #2
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Martinez, Richardson and Lewis won't be getting significant raises.

Simmonds isn't a $3 million player. People were saying similar things about Johnson's and Quick's first RFA contracts and they signed for way less.

Handzus and Poni will both be gone.

Offer sheets are few and far between. Which teams would have the cap space, still have all the draft picks needed to even make the offer and would want to make an astronomical offer? There's a reasson why they are so rare.

There's a lot of effort in your post, but also a lot of false alarm.

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03-01-2011, 07:28 AM
  #3
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I personally thought that the Williams extension and Penner acquisition would prevent us from doing anything of note this summer but Lombardi said he still had the flexibility to do something for the right player.

Poni walks, that will cover the cost for Schenn. Handzus is worth 4 mil, that'll about cover the raise for Johnson, Martinez, Richardson and Lewis. I'll be surprised if Simmonds gets north of 2 mil unless it's a long term deal. The big question mark is Doughty.

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03-01-2011, 08:08 AM
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Solid post but as others have said, a little bit of a reach when it comes to the salary of a guy like Simmonds.

The interesting thing about the Kings is they have some great value contracts in Brown, Johnson and Williams and some absolutely awful ones in Smyth, Poni and Handzus who the Kings are committing $13.7 million in cap space to this season. Just be thankful that two of these deals are up after this season.

As you said, we'll see what happens with Doughty and it's the biggest issue this summer. He could take a hometown discount like JJ did or he could demand top dollar like Kopitar did. It's easy to sit here and say he should be a "team guy" and take a discount but it's his life and possibly the biggest contract he'll ever sign so we shouldn't think less of him if he demands top dollar. And if someone does come with a offer-sheet the Kings will match anything, even if someone offered him 7 years, 49 million for example the Kings would match and then trade someone like Stoll for a pick to free up the money.

When Lombardi says he will have some "flexibility" it's another one of his cliches when he means replacing Handzus and Poni, not making a play for anyone of significance. The Kings should be very quiet this summer, the major hole on the Kings right now is 2nd line center and they are going to give Schenn every chance to fill it. That will slot Stoll down to a 3rd line role to replace Handzus (who probably walks). The other hole on the team is still a first line LW, while Penner is a decent stop gap his long term role on the Kings, if he has one is to replace on the 2nd line after 2012. Once that albatross of a contract is off the books expect to see the Kings make a major play for an elite player either by trade or FA.

So I wouldn't worry to much about being up against the cap next season, the worst thing about next season is some bad contracts will still be around and we won't be able to add. But look out for 2012-13 when all those bad contracts are history and the Kings can add some key pieces.

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03-01-2011, 08:36 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBrown View Post
I personally thought that the Williams extension and Penner acquisition would prevent us from doing anything of note this summer but Lombardi said he still had the flexibility to do something for the right player.

Poni walks, that will cover the cost for Schenn. Handzus is worth 4 mil, that'll about cover the raise for Johnson, Martinez, Richardson and Lewis. I'll be surprised if Simmonds gets north of 2 mil unless it's a long term deal. The big question mark is Doughty.
Remember, Handzus' 4 mil, Poni's 3.2 mil,and those 10 pounds that are the hardest to lose come off the books this summer.

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03-01-2011, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted by HeadInjury View Post

Simmonds isn't a $3 million player.

In fact, he isn't even half that. Personally, I see his next contract being $1.45 million over the next 4 years. That's comparable to Cal Clutterbuck's contract ($1.40 million), and Clutterbuck is Minnesota's franchise player (sort of!).

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03-01-2011, 09:01 AM
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where and with who DL moves forward with at C will indeed be interesting.

-stoll comes off the books after next season. the kids behind Schenn and Lokti will help determine if Stoll is re-signed at that point. if those kids are ready to move up then Stoll isn't resigned the summer of 2012. if not then he is brought back or DL brings in someone for the short term to fill the #3 or #4.

-Schenn and Lokti (injury recover permitting) will both be in LA at the start of next season. i think at the start we are going to see both of them rotating in and out of the line up, literally eased into their new responsibilities as either the #2 or #3.

-Lewis is an RFA this summer and will likely be re-signed with a small increase in pay, say to $1-1.25M (from $803K). he will be relied on as the #4, with the ability to slide into the #3 when needed. for flexibility it would be great if he could hold down the #3 full time. combine this with say Lokti doing the same and it gives them depth.

next year is pivotal for the development of Schenn and Lokti and really for LA down the middle for the next 5+ years. under the tutelage of Kopi, Stoll and Lewis these two will have to really be brought up to speed. i wish Schenn could in fact get a year of help from Zus but that isnt going to happen.

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03-01-2011, 09:14 AM
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I kind of agree here. The 7.866M coming off next year (Handzus, Poni, McCauley buyout) should cover all raises next year (even if Doughty gets 7M, but Simmonds will definitely not get 3M) and between our current cap space and the increase in the cap next, we can cover Penner's contract and have whatever the cap increases as room, but I don't see how we fit in Schenn now unless Dean is willing to ride the bonus coushin or someone gets traded.

Edit:
I'm expecting small raises of a lot of the guys listed as most are 2nd contracts. Simmonds around 1.25 for 2 or 3 years, Richardson around the same, Lewis at 900K or whatever the QO is (is there a QO for him? I don't know the rules), and Martinez around 1.

Neither Handzus nor Poni need replacing in FA really.


Last edited by FootKnight: 03-01-2011 at 09:25 AM.
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Old
03-01-2011, 09:15 AM
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Lewis has something like 2 goals. If he gets a raise at all, it will probably be to $900,000 tops. No way they give him more than they gave Parse or Richardson. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he agrees to a one-way multi-year deal for less. It has happened before.

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03-01-2011, 09:36 AM
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Originally Posted by HeadInjury View Post
Lewis has something like 2 goals. If he gets a raise at all, it will probably be to $900,000 tops. No way they give him more than they gave Parse or Richardson. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he agrees to a one-way multi-year deal for less. It has happened before.
your probably correct. i havent ever really tried to assign $ to players. i focus more on skill set, hockey sense and capability. where they fit in a line up to best use those assets. i havent really ever tried to tie that to money, so im likely off base.

i hope to see Lewis be able to expand and improve what he has shown thus far. for a #4 C though you can't tie his $ worth to goals and points. they are out there for two things - energy/momentum and defense. if they pot any points at all it's a bonus. a better indicator for the fourth line is +/-. if they are around -10 at year's end they are doing a very good job. anything less than that is excellent. Lewis at this time is at -12, not great but damn close to being 'very good'. his line for the most part is containing and shutting down the opposing teams #1/#2 lines.

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03-01-2011, 09:50 AM
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I can't remember where, but I read that based on revenue projections, we should see the CAP go up about 2.5M next year.

DL has already said he's leaning towards the short term with Doughty, and considering he's only had 1 elite season, I think his contract will be pretty reasonable (1 or 2 years at 5.xM)


CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Dustin Penner ($4.250m) / Anze Kopitar ($6.800m) / Justin Williams ($3.650m)
Ryan Smyth ($6.250m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.140m) / Dustin Brown ($3.175m)
Scott Parse ($0.900m) / Jarret Stoll ($3.600m) / Wayne Simmonds ($2.000m)
Kyle Clifford ($0.870m) / Trevor Lewis ($0.900m) / Brad Richardson ($1.000m)
Kevin Westgarth ($0.525m)

DEFENSEMEN
Drew Doughty ($5.000m) / Willie Mitchell ($3.500m)
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / Rob Scuderi ($3.400m)
Vyacheslav Voinov ($0.816m) / Matt Greene ($2.950m)
Alec Martinez ($0.975m)

GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Quick ($1.800m) / Jonathan Bernier ($1.250m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $61,400,000;
CAP PAYROLL: $61,108,809;
BONUSES: $2,390,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $291,191

Tight but doable. I think both Drewiske and Harrold are gone.

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03-01-2011, 09:58 AM
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keep in mind that Handzus' money "coming off the books" has been effectively canceled out by Penner's acquisition.

that said, the Kings will STILL be in good shape to add a significant salary next season should the opportunity present itself... and it should be noted that said opportunity would likely come as a result of another trade, so the exiting salary, no matter how minimal that may be, needs to be taken into consideration as well.

Richarson [SIC], Lewis and Martinez will all most likely receive a QO raise, Simmonds will (should) get somewhere in the 2's, and Doughty pulling something in the 5's... they've got a little over $4 million leaving next season in Ponikarovsky, Harrold, and McCauley.

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03-01-2011, 10:00 AM
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johnjm22
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The real question here isn't about the CAP anyways; they'll find a way to make it work.

Next season will be the 6th of DL's tenure, and the lineup is basically set with CAP space maxed out. Is that team good enough to compete for a cup?

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03-01-2011, 10:00 AM
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AKAY47
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We're already acquiring someone in the off-season, he goes by the name of Brayden Schenn and he's a significant upgrade at 2C

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03-01-2011, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by johnjm22 View Post
The real question here isn't about the CAP anyways; they'll find a way to make it work.

Next season will be the 6th of DL's tenure, and the lineup is basically set with CAP space maxed out. Is that team good enough to compete for a cup?
DL might not even be here if we miss the playoffs this year

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03-01-2011, 10:02 AM
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I can't remember where, but I read that .....

Yeah, and I remember reading somewhere that Schenn actively restructured his contract so as to make his cap-hit more friendly to the Kings (Lombardi's) long-term, organizational plan.

Do the numbers on "Cap Geek" reflect this, or is my memory mistaken?

BTW, that CBA thing which says that top 5 picks get $3+ million in the NHL, regardless of whether or not they deserve it is just plain crass.

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03-01-2011, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by johnjm22 View Post
I can't remember where, but I read that based on revenue projections, we should see the CAP go up about 2.5M next year.

DL has already said he's leaning towards the short term with Doughty, and considering he's only had 1 elite season, I think his contract will be pretty reasonable (1 or 2 years at 5.xM)


CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR

FORWARDS
Dustin Penner ($4.250m) / Anze Kopitar ($6.800m) / Justin Williams ($3.650m)
Ryan Smyth ($6.250m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.140m) / Dustin Brown ($3.175m)
Scott Parse ($0.900m) / Jarret Stoll ($3.600m) / Wayne Simmonds ($2.000m)
Kyle Clifford ($0.870m) / Trevor Lewis ($0.900m) / Brad Richardson ($1.000m)
Kevin Westgarth ($0.525m)

DEFENSEMEN
Drew Doughty ($5.000m) / Willie Mitchell ($3.500m)
Jack Johnson ($4.357m) / Rob Scuderi ($3.400m)
Vyacheslav Voinov ($0.816m) / Matt Greene ($2.950m)
Alec Martinez ($0.975m)

GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Quick ($1.800m) / Jonathan Bernier ($1.250m)

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $61,400,000;
CAP PAYROLL: $61,108,809;
BONUSES: $2,390,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $291,191

Tight but doable. I think both Drewiske and Harrold are gone.

You pretty much nailed it. Absolute worst case, DL may have to part with Smyth(buyout) or Stoll.

And will clear a bunch of space with the departures of Stoll, Smyth and Mitchell which equates to about $13M.

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03-01-2011, 10:05 AM
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Capn Brown
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I think both Drewiske and Harrold are gone.

Drewiske has another two years left on his deal.

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03-01-2011, 10:05 AM
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Harrold, Handzus and Poni are definitely gone though

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03-01-2011, 10:10 AM
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Harrold, Handzus and Poni are definitely gone though

Harrold's cheap/versatile enough to be re-signed, though.

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03-01-2011, 10:10 AM
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Good work johnjm22. You have a 22-man roster. We should probably add Moller as he's no longer waiver exempt and I think he is still in the plans. He'll probably get around $750,000 on a one-way deal.

I think your assumptions on Simmonds and Martinez are a little high, which will help fit Moller in. Moller could get traded of course. Or they might let Richardson or Parse go instead and bring in someone like Cliche near the minimum.

If Doughty agrees to only a one-year deal, I wouldn't be shocked if the number is lower than $5 million, although that is clearly his market value.

The following season we should be fine cap wise with Smyth, Stoll and perhaps Mitchell coming off the books. It wouldn't shock me if Smyth were re-signed short term at about half his current cap hit.

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03-01-2011, 10:24 AM
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Drew Doughty is a very good player. Unfortunately, for him, he is a very good player who isn't even arbitration eligible yet. Fortunately, for him, I can't find a comparable. The closest I can find is Mike Green who put up 71 points in the first three seasons of NHL hockey. He got 5.25MM/year. Which I find fairly odd because Seabrook put up 88 points in his first three seasons and got 3.5MM/year. The scary part is that Doughty has put up 121 points so far and this season isn't even over yet. The good part is that an arbitrator would consider those numbers and, like I said, Doughty isn't arbitration eligible.

The one thing that I think the Kings have going for them is that there have been two consecutive guys who signed who took hometown discounts. In addition to Brown's really good contract and Kopitar's more than reasonable contract there is a good chance Doughty could follow suit. This offseason is going to be really interesting.

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03-01-2011, 10:59 AM
  #23
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I don't think you have to worry about big ticket free agents, because those guys don't sign with the Kings, or any team the further west you go. Unless there is some specific set of circumstances for that player(place of birth, a brother already on the team without a ring, etc), or just flat out more money, the big ticket guys go east all things being equal.

It's always difficult to try and guess what the players are going to sign for. With those numbers, you just have to wait and see what they are. We can guess what Simmonds and Doughty might sign for, but if the numbers you guess are off by even a little bit(let alone anything significant), it can throw a wrench into the whole machine. The only thing people can expect is that the Kings will get them signed.

There hasn't been any indication that the Kings will have to trade two or three guys though. Everyone couldn't stop talking about how the Hawks were going to have a summer where half their team was going to be different. Who is saying that about the Kings? We even make jokes about how Cap Space is going to score 40 goals for the team next year. The Kings sign Williams. They bring in Penner. Knowing full well that Doughty and Simmonds still need to sign. The Kings don't seem to be all that worried about having to do anything drastic this summer.

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03-01-2011, 11:11 AM
  #24
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If something happens where we get pushed up against the cap due to a new signing, trading Smyth wouldn't be as difficult as you'd think. He makes 4.500.000 but carries a cap hit of 6.250.000. Any team looking to reach the floor could do worse to make it as their dollar output is definitely not 6,250,000.

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03-01-2011, 12:22 PM
  #25
DryIslandBartender
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Country: United States
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AKAY47 View Post
We're already acquiring someone in the off-season, he goes by the name of Brayden Schenn and he's a significant upgrade at 2C
I wouldn't be surprised, but I wouldn't count on it. Schenn is still pretty inexperienced. I'd like him to start at 3C.

A scenario I can see happening at the draft is Dean Lombardi trading away a roster player to recoup some of the picks he traded away at the Deadline.

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