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The Meszaros Trade: Has it been worth it?

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Old
03-03-2011, 03:22 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by LEIFey View Post
It's not like there was huge demand for Meszaros and I seem to recall him being on his way out in Tampa. That seems like a recipe for underpayment. Holmgren made a good trade, but is it really that unbelievable that I think he could have gotten a better deal if he'd haggled a bit? When was the last time that Holmgren haggled anyone down?
Well, he got Leino for a 5th, and threw in Tolly's contract too. That seems more like a shakedown than a haggle in hindsight.

Seriously, you have no idea whether there was any demand or not. None. As far as I know, Yzerman has not made his phone records public. And even if there wasn't, there should have been - and you know a lot of GMs wish they'd have gotten in on that deal if only to push the price up.

You also don't know whether Homer did haggle Yzerman down or not. Maybe he was asking for a 1st rounder and Homer talked him down?

GMs make trades or offer contracts in very tight time constraints. They make decisions they can live with, quickly, then live with them forever.

Let's be happy we cheer for team whose GM is getting it right almost all the time and putting one of the league's best teams on the ice.

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03-03-2011, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by LEIFey View Post
That seems like a recipe for underpayment.
A second for Meszaros IS underpayment.

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03-03-2011, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry44 View Post
Well, he got Leino for a 5th, and threw in Tolly's contract too. That seems more like a shakedown than a haggle in hindsight.

Seriously, you have no idea whether there was any demand or not. None. As far as I know, Yzerman has not made his phone records public. And even if there wasn't, there should have been - and you know a lot of GMs wish they'd have gotten in on that deal if only to push the price up.

You also don't know whether Homer did haggle Yzerman down or not. Maybe he was asking for a 1st rounder and Homer talked him down?

GMs make trades or offer contracts in very tight time constraints. They make decisions they can live with, quickly, then live with them forever.

Let's be happy we cheer for team whose GM is getting it right almost all the time and putting one of the league's best teams on the ice.
Yeah, Leino was mostly a GM taking advantage of a situation where a player's value was artificially lowered. Good on Homer for that.

And you're right, I don't know whether there was any haggling done, but my personal opinion is that Meszaros was in a situation similar to Leino in terms of his value being drastically lower than what it should have been. He was struggling on his second team in a row while still having years left on his contract at a significant cap hit. I could be completely wrong, but that doesn't sound like an attractive asset to me.

You need to stop thinking I hate this deal. I'm a big fan of Meszaros and I thought he'd be a good fit when we got him. I also applaud Homer for taking the chance on him and even for being willing to pay solid assets for him. All I'm saying is that in my opinion Meszaros could have been had for less.

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Originally Posted by dookie88 View Post
A second for Meszaros IS underpayment.
Now it is. When the deal went down, it was still being bandied about to be a huge gamble.

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03-03-2011, 04:50 PM
  #54
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Mez has been everything we asked for and more. I think he was too young when he was given that salary but he will grow into a fine #2-3 d-man and become worth every penny.

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03-03-2011, 04:52 PM
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Worth it...imo

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03-03-2011, 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by LEIFey View Post
Now it is. When the deal went down, it was still being bandied about to be a huge gamble.
By those overrating the risk involved.

I didn't ever see it as a "gamble" in the sense that it didn't have a downside. Tampa fans overreacted to Meszaros' play with the Lightning. He was never that bad, but fans down there called him Krajicek, which is absurd. Secondly, you pretty much knew he was going to get better in a situation that was easier for him in so many ways.

There was no risk, just different levels of reward.

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03-03-2011, 05:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
By those overrating the risk involved.

I didn't ever see it as a "gamble" in the sense that it didn't have a downside. Tampa fans overreacted to Meszaros' play with the Lightning. He was never that bad, but fans down there called him Krajicek, which is absurd. Secondly, you pretty much knew he was going to get better in a situation that was easier for him in so many ways.

There was no risk, just different levels of reward.
No downside? If Mesz had continued to struggle, we'd be stuck with a hefty contract and short an asset. You and I clearly have different views on what constitutes a risk.

Sigh, maybe I'm just a pessimist.

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03-03-2011, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted by LEIFey View Post
No downside? If Mesz had continued to struggle, we'd be stuck with a hefty contract and short an asset. You and I clearly have different views on what constitutes a risk.

Sigh, maybe I'm just a pessimist.
It's possible that I'm just an optimist, but in reality, Meszaros wasn't playing THAT bad in Tampa. Nothing worth 4m, but he wasn't playing like Randy Jones either.

He would've been just another overpaid player on our blueline. I'm completely whatever about that, probably since Carle flirts dangerously with that overpaid marker.

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03-03-2011, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
It's possible that I'm just an optimist, but in reality, Meszaros wasn't playing THAT bad in Tampa. Nothing worth 4m, but he wasn't playing like Randy Jones either.

He would've been just another overpaid player on our blueline. I'm completely whatever about that, probably since Carle flirts dangerously with that overpaid marker.
I didn't see a ton of him in Tampa, but from what I saw, he looked tired and disinterested. He wasn't awful, but I'm always leery of headcases. Still, I figured another change of scenery and a chance to not have to be the top pairing guy would be good for him, so I supported the deal.

Carle IS overpaid

Blagh, that's my pessimism again.

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03-03-2011, 06:27 PM
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Meszaros is looking like the defenseman he was back in Ottawa. Tampa Bay was just a toxic environment at the time he was there and I'm sure that played a huge part in how he toiled there.

He's been worth every penny he's been paid this year. His play has helped the Flyers cut back ice time for both Pronger and Timonen and that's going to be huge come play off time.

I know I was stoked when Holmgren made the trade for him because not only is this a big defenseman that can skate and play in all situations, he's also a mean dude that can hit like a freight train. He's basically made Coburn the odd man out over the summer because he does everything that was envisioned with Coburn.

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03-03-2011, 09:09 PM
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He wasn't worth it tonight, but overall the guy's been real good. Total opposite of what the majority of Tampa and Ottawa fans warned me about.

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03-04-2011, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by LEIFey View Post
No downside? If Mesz had continued to struggle, we'd be stuck with a hefty contract and short an asset. You and I clearly have different views on what constitutes a risk.

Sigh, maybe I'm just a pessimist.
Maybe, but I was among those who loved the deal, and the price, from the minute it happened. I always liked Mez so I was happy to get him. He had two significant injuries playing in Tampa, which hurt his effectiveness.

Everything is a risk, but I'm learning to trust the Flyers' collective scouting/player evaluation. It's not just Homer, it's Don Luce and the rest.

They don't make many mistakes., esp. when they are poaching underachieving young players from other teams: Coburn, Carle, Leino, Meszaros, Versteeg....

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03-04-2011, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Larry44 View Post
Maybe, but I was among those who loved the deal, and the price, from the minute it happened. I always liked Mez so I was happy to get him. He had two significant injuries playing in Tampa, which hurt his effectiveness.

Everything is a risk, but I'm learning to trust the Flyers' collective scouting/player evaluation. It's not just Homer, it's Don Luce and the rest.

They don't make many mistakes., esp. when they are poaching underachieving young players from other teams: Coburn, Carle, Leino, Meszaros, Versteeg....
I agree, the Flyers staff have been pretty solid in their acquisitions, but that doesn't mean they can't do better. I supported the trade when it went down and I'm glad today that it did, but I stand by my opinion that they might have been able to get away with paying less.

Carle was kind of the result of a huge blunder on our part. We traded a solid pick for Steve Eminger who ended up being awful and then we had to deal him and Downie (who admittedly was a headcase here) for Carle. That's not exactly poaching. Worked out alright in the end, but not exactly a bright spot.

And I wouldn't add Versteeg to that list just yet.

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03-04-2011, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
It's possible that I'm just an optimist, but in reality, Meszaros wasn't playing THAT bad in Tampa. Nothing worth 4m, but he wasn't playing like Randy Jones either.

He would've been just another overpaid player on our blueline. I'm completely whatever about that, probably since Carle flirts dangerously with that overpaid marker.
In a salary cap world, having another player turn into an overpayment is a risk.

But you are ever the optimist.

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03-04-2011, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted by infidelappel View Post
In a salary cap world, having another player turn into an overpayment is a risk.

But you are ever the optimist.
How many players do you think we're overpaying at the moment?

As always, the realm of overpayment in terms of HF is shaky at best. Until there is a set standard for what qualifies as overpayment, the ruling on such matters will always be up to the individual.

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03-04-2011, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by LEIFey View Post
I agree, the Flyers staff have been pretty solid in their acquisitions, but that doesn't mean they can't do better. I supported the trade when it went down and I'm glad today that it did, but I stand by my opinion that they might have been able to get away with paying less.

Carle was kind of the result of a huge blunder on our part. We traded a solid pick for Steve Eminger who ended up being awful and then we had to deal him and Downie (who admittedly was a headcase here) for Carle. That's not exactly poaching. Worked out alright in the end, but not exactly a bright spot.

And I wouldn't add Versteeg to that list just yet.
Carle was just Holmgren saving face. I like that he did that. I don't like the original move, but I like his willingness and aptitude to fix his mistakes.

That said, ignoring all the warnings and rules about hindsight, we gave up Carlson and Downie for Carle.

I'd trade Carle for Downie and Carlson EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE WEEK.

It sucks, but worrying about hindsight and opportunity cost in that respect is just like trying to raise the dead.

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03-04-2011, 10:19 AM
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The other issue with trading for Eminger is that it was completely unnecessary. There was a better than average chance he wouldn't have been qualified, and if he was we could have just signed him to an offer sheet and gave up less. That one was just Holmgren trying to be a genius because he thought he was one after getting a 1st round pick for Umberger an hour before that.

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03-04-2011, 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
How many players do you think we're overpaying at the moment?

As always, the realm of overpayment in terms of HF is shaky at best. Until there is a set standard for what qualifies as overpayment, the ruling on such matters will always be up to the individual.
Bear in mind, I'm not even saying we have a lot of overpaid players; you're the one who said 'just another overpaid player on our blueline.'

But in a cap world, having an overpaid contract on a player who's not performing up to that valuable (and if he had turned into an unmovable contract, that'd be worse) is bad when you're at the ceiling and trying to win.

I'd have to think a bit about who all is really overpaid on our team. I'd say Coburn, Carle, Meszaros all make probably a little more than they ought to, but not necessarily by much. Danny's contract is probably a little high. Hartnell may be just a bit (but it's debatable, since his actual value is difficult to quantify). Shelley is definitely overpaid/unnecessary.

But the point isn't necessarily how many you have...it's just that in a cap world, it sucks to take on a bad contract. I don't think any of ours are really bad because the players have performed pretty well, but taking on a guy who was struggling since he got a hefty sum in Meszaros is definitely a risk. It just happens that he panned out well.

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03-04-2011, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Carle was just Holmgren saving face. I like that he did that. I don't like the original move, but I like his willingness and aptitude to fix his mistakes.

That said, ignoring all the warnings and rules about hindsight, we gave up Carlson and Downie for Carle.

I'd trade Carle for Downie and Carlson EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE WEEK.

It sucks, but worrying about hindsight and opportunity cost in that respect is just like trying to raise the dead.
Well, I don't really worry about it, but I recognize that it was a mistake. Larry brought up Holmgren's track record and that's why I even mentioned it. Like I've been saying all along, Holmgren has done a great job building this team (just look at the standings), but that doesn't mean he can't do better.

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03-04-2011, 12:46 PM
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Carle was just Holmgren saving face. I like that he did that. I don't like the original move, but I like his willingness and aptitude to fix his mistakes.

That said, ignoring all the warnings and rules about hindsight, we gave up Carlson and Downie for Carle.

I'd trade Carle for Downie and Carlson EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE WEEK.

It sucks, but worrying about hindsight and opportunity cost in that respect is just like trying to raise the dead.
Bill Barber, as was documented at the time, came to Luce and Homer encouraging them to go after Carle when Tampa wanted to move him. Tampa just kept putting young guys in impossible roles - Carle was being asked, in his second year, to take over for 25 Min/game Dan Boyle, in a blockbuster trade. The argument was, here's a top 4 guy for the taking, we can't pass it up even though it will cause us cap problems later.

Eminger's acquisition is much bemoaned here, but it was in the same manner of trying to find someone who needed the right place to blossom. The gamble on Eminger, who played played Jr. with Richards and was top prospect. They investigated him heavily and decided to gamble on him. A first pick was probably too much to pay, but they had Sbisa and thought, if we can get Sbisa and player who is ready to join the roster, let's go for it.

In Eminger's defense, the whole team started badly, and his tentative play didn't help.

Downie's got his act together, good for him, but he burned his bridge in Philly and had to go.

Homer turned a failed experiment and a wayward prospect into a 22+ min/game top pairing dman who was only 23 or 24 at the time. What's not to like about that?

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03-04-2011, 12:57 PM
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Homer turned a failed experiment and a wayward prospect into a 22+ min/game top pairing dman who was only 23 or 24 at the time. What's not to like about that?
Not saying that this is all that matters to me, but you're right.

The optimists show what Holmgren did positive for the team and the pessimists are showing what Holmgren did wrong to put himself in that situation to begin with.

While I don't necessarily believe the end always justifies the mean, I think that the final results are the more important part of being a General Manager.

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03-05-2011, 08:59 AM
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but taking on a guy who was struggling since he got a hefty sum in Meszaros is definitely a risk. It just happens that he panned out well.
Well, a risk sure, but I'd say a very low risk. The fact that is 'happened to pan out well' .. is not a result of blind luck or fortuitous circumstance. It is the result of calculation and analysis.

Yes twas risky cuz Mesz was struggling in TB, but OTOH it was not a risk cuz everyone knew he was struggling for specific reasons .. reasons that were not valid in Philly.

Namely, he was asked to be top pairing on a defensively weak TB team. Here he gets to play often on the 3rd pairing, with two bona fide star Dmen ahead of him in the depth chart.

In Ottawa also, he had been surrounded by Phillips, Chara, and a still-potent (at the time) Redden. And he did well there. So he has a track record of doing well when surrounded by other talent. And a track record (TB) of flubbing when asked to lead a no-talent D corps.

Given that background, what you do is look at Philly's current D corps, and decide : is it more similar to Ottawa's when Mesz was prospering there, or is it more similar to TB's when Mesz was floundering there?

Then you make the decision. Which is what Flyers did. And twas the right one.

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03-05-2011, 09:06 AM
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Bill Barber, as was documented at the time, came to Luce and Homer encouraging them to go after Carle when Tampa wanted to move him. Tampa just kept putting young guys in impossible roles - Carle was being asked, in his second year, to take over for 25 Min/game Dan Boyle, in a blockbuster trade. The argument was, here's a top 4 guy for the taking, we can't pass it up even though it will cause us cap problems later.

Eminger's acquisition is much bemoaned here, but it was in the same manner of trying to find someone who needed the right place to blossom. The gamble on Eminger, who played played Jr. with Richards and was top prospect. They investigated him heavily and decided to gamble on him. A first pick was probably too much to pay, but they had Sbisa and thought, if we can get Sbisa and player who is ready to join the roster, let's go for it.

In Eminger's defense, the whole team started badly, and his tentative play didn't help.

Downie's got his act together, good for him, but he burned his bridge in Philly and had to go.

Homer turned a failed experiment and a wayward prospect into a 22+ min/game top pairing dman who was only 23 or 24 at the time. What's not to like about that?
QUESTION:

Sonce we mention Eminger and Sbisa, let's answer this: How good right now are those two, compared to what Philly has now. Ie, we know they are inferior to Prongs and Timo (tho perhaps not when considering age) but how do each of Eminger and Sbisa compare to Carle, Meszaros, and Coburn?

If those two were in Philly lineup now, would they push any of those three to the press box? Would they slot into second pairing , third pairing. or would they themselves be sitting?

Lemme start the speculation: Eminger is not that good and at best he would compete with O'Donnell for the 6th spot?

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03-05-2011, 09:57 AM
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I could see him taking over the reigns once Pronger and Timonen retire. He's not ready to be the #1 guy just yet, his visit to Tampa proved that. But let him mature for couple of years and hit his prime age, he'll be ready.

Also the pick sent to TB being... what, somewhere around #45-60?

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03-05-2011, 11:33 AM
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QUESTION:

Sonce we mention Eminger and Sbisa, let's answer this: How good right now are those two, compared to what Philly has now. Ie, we know they are inferior to Prongs and Timo (tho perhaps not when considering age) but how do each of Eminger and Sbisa compare to Carle, Meszaros, and Coburn?

If those two were in Philly lineup now, would they push any of those three to the press box? Would they slot into second pairing , third pairing. or would they themselves be sitting?

Lemme start the speculation: Eminger is not that good and at best he would compete with O'Donnell for the 6th spot?
Eminger isn't playing badly for the Rangers now, but whether we'd use him over O'D at #6 is hard to say. Sbisa would still be in Jr, or with the Phantoms. Neither one is as good as Carle, Meszaros or Coburn right now. Sbisa may be some day, but he's still too green.

They gambled on Eminger realizing his full potential as a puck carrying Dman. He hasn't.

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