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Francois Gagnon: Tinordi and 1st round round draft pick for Penner

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Old
03-04-2011, 01:50 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by Next Best Thing View Post
No he's not. Maybe if you said to me, Penner is a significantly better player then that would be fine. But even then I have no idea what you base that on.
i agree lets say Penner and AK show up every night, no doubt that Ak smokes penner. AK has way more talent than Penner. Penner's advantage over AK, 4 inches, and 26lbs, and ok he plays the boards better ill give him that. But AK as wayyyy better hockey attributes than Penner.

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03-04-2011, 01:52 PM
  #102
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That is part of the problem he doesn't punish anyone in JR how will he do so in teh big game. He is not sound positionaly and is actually pretty weak on the puck he gets pushed off the puck easily. Which is part of the reason I feel he didn't make the US jr team considering he was the captain of their team in the USdevelopment program.
Because players develop into the player they will one day be, they don't start off being the player they will one day become.

Some players develop fast others slow, we don't get to see what's going on behind closed doors. Coaching might have told him to focus on one area of his game for now until next year when he becomes more of an important piece on their D setup.

Give the kid a break it's his first season in junior. People love to assume on HF, that prospects are either a bust or future superstar.

Prospects are prospects, until they fail to make the AHL I wouldn't worry too much at this early stage of development.

Kristo's a bust too now right? He's having a bad season after all.

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03-04-2011, 01:54 PM
  #103
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Boyes got traded to Buffalo, not Boston. Penner a much better player than Boyes?..How so? Because he's bigger? Fail to see how this makes him a much better player, if at all. Is it because he averages more points? Nope, Boyes averages 10more pts per season than him. Is it because Penner is faster?..Nope. Better passer and stickhandler?..Nope. Is it because Penner is better at ES?..Not really, they're just about the same. Ya, Penner might have a better shot percentage, and hit a little bit more given his size (still disappointing that he has less hits than Gionta), but again, I fail how this makes him a much better player than Boyes.

Ya, Buffalo certainly underpaid for Boyes. Giving up a first round prospect + 1st round pick for Penner though is overpayment.
Versteeg is having a similar season to Penner, he cost the Flyers a 1st (29th or 30th) + 3rd. Still, many felt it was a bit of a steep price. He's signed for another year at a more reasonable price than Penner (3.08 vs 4.25).

As I said, giving up Tinordi+1st for Penner is too expensive for my taste. Penner is a good player, he fills a void, but he's not worth that much. We overpaid for players more often than not via the trade market, I'm glad we didn't do it again this time.
Kaberle got the Leafs a similar value return and he's a lot more valuable than Penner imo.
If they were sending us their 2nd round pick, then yea, I probably would have thought a lot more about it. If it's Tinordi or our first for Penner straight up, then perhaps. But not if it's both.



How exactly do you know if Penner is a better player than the pick??
Do you know who that pick is?..Do you know if we'll even have that pick for sure by the selection time?..How exactly do you know any of this?? Crystal Ball?

With Markov-PK-Gorges, Hammer (or maybe Gorges) is our #4 Dman. If Tinordi is a #4 Dman then I'm all happy.
Tinordi, outside Emelin maybe, is our best defensive prospect. Weber and PK are in the NHL. I don't have big hopes for Carle. Emelin is an enigma. Nash and Bennett could become interesting players but they're not rated any higher than Tinordi.

Even if you think he is easily replaceable, he's still a high value prospect. This + 1st is an overpayment for an inconsistent player that's bigger than AK but hits less.


Yea, he doesn't have any offense. Does that surprise you? Because he was drafted for his defensive and physical abilities, not the offense. Comparing him to Hal Gill really?..I have a hard time believing you've watched him play or read up much on him if that's the best comparison you can come up with.



Why would St-Louis give Buffalo a 40G scorer for just a 2nd rounder?

Tinordi+1st is an overpayment for Penner.
I don't know for sure the pick will be a less talented player than Penner or less productive, it's called probability. It's highly probable that the pick never turns out as good as Penner. Sure there's some risk involved, but getting a 30g scorer offsets the risk. Tinordi was a meh pick from the day he was selected imo. 30 g scoring 240lb wingers are much more difficult to find than 4-6 dman.

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03-04-2011, 01:54 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I don't know for sure the pick will be a less talented player than Penner or less productive, it's called probability. It's highly probable that the pick never turns out as good as Penner. Sure there's some risk involved, but getting a 30g scorer offsets the risk. Tinordi was a meh pick from the day he was selected imo. 30 g scoring 240lb wingers are much more difficult to find than 4-6 dman.
And here's my cue not to waste my time arguing with you over this anymore.

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03-04-2011, 01:57 PM
  #105
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Penner is a good player, he fills a void, but he's not worth that much. We overpaid for players more often than not via the trade market, I'm glad we didn't do it again this time.

Tinordi+1st is an overpayment for Penner.
Agreed. For the $4.25M Penner is already getting, we can get a guy with his production via free agency. No need to trade assets unless we are getting a much lower salary for that production.

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03-04-2011, 01:58 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Next Best Thing View Post
And here's my cue not to waste my time arguing with you over this anymore.
Whatever, don't, it's my opinion. I'm sure you know so much more about him.

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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
Agreed. For the $4.25M Penner is already getting, we can get a guy with his production via free agency. No need to trade assets unless we are getting a much lower salary for that production.
who is this mystery man you speak of?

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03-04-2011, 02:01 PM
  #107
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Whatever, don't, it's my opinion. I'm sure you know so much more about him.
No I don't, and I've stated this before.

It's just impossible to have a discussion with someone who from the geto-go doesn't give him a chance.

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03-04-2011, 02:02 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Next Best Thing View Post
Timmins obviously saw something in him to go and move down to draft him. You're bashing this pick similar to how everyone was laughing at McIlrath who is coming along very nicely in the WHL. A few years of constant progression for Tonordi and his ceiling can be as high as our own version of Pronger.


no...

Just to turn the underlined part against you..

You're pimping the pick just like people who thought Komisarek was the next Scott Stevens (back in the 2000s).

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03-04-2011, 02:06 PM
  #109
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no...

Just to turn the underlined part against you..

You're pimping the pick just like people who thought Komisarek was the next Scott Stevens (back in the 2000s).
No to what, exactly?

And Komisarek looked VERY promising for about a season or two. What didn't help him was the fact that he treated the puck like a grenade every time it was on his stick - and that his development dropped to a standstill a couple of seasons into his career. What does this have to do with the way people were bashing Sather badly back in the day, but it looks more and more like McIlrath was a first rounder after all. Maybe not a #10 overall pick, but still. We picked up Tinordi much later, and they are practically the same player.

small edit: We've been lacking a Komisarek ever since he left, our blue-line never recovered that nastyness and intimidation he provided.


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03-04-2011, 02:07 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by E = CH² View Post


no...

Just to turn the underlined part against you..

You're pimping the pick just like people who thought Komisarek was the next Scott Stevens.
I know. I'm not a big fan of dealing away the future all the time either, but picks and prospects are so over rated around here it's not funny. They have more value than proven players. Not everyone drafted in the first rd pans out. Sometimes taking a risk is necessary, when a 240 lb top 6 forward we really are lacking who can contribute 30goals a year is the player coming back I would be willing to take the risk on him.

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03-04-2011, 02:12 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I've watched a few games and read a ton on him. He has zero offence to speak of. He's not a center piece for this team in the future, he's a young Hal Gill and that's about it, if he ever gets to Hals level he'll be doing good.

What we do know is Dustin Penner is already a proven 25-30g scorer year end and year out. Why would Edmonton give their 240lb 30g scorer away for less?
I'm not sure about the "zero offense", he has 10 points and hasn't had a sniff of PP time. I don't think offense will ever be the strength of his game but he is a mobile enough guy(great feet for a guy 6'7") and has good hockey sense, once his frame fills out and he has a year under his belt I could see him putting up 30-35 points in the OHL and eventually 15-20 in the NHL like a Regehr. Zero Offense is John Scott or Steve MacIntyre.

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03-04-2011, 02:15 PM
  #112
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I see Tinordi becoming what we wanted O'Byrne to be
I wish Tinordi become like Komisarek when he was good with the Habs (like the 2007-2008)

If he manage to be near the top on hits and shot blocked it will be a perfect fit

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03-04-2011, 02:24 PM
  #113
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I wish Tinordi become like Komisarek when he was good with the Habs (like the 2007-2008)

If he manage to be near the top on hits and shot blocked it will be a perfect fit
I think that's a good comparison but Tinordi has a bit better hockey sense to move the puck and make a first pass.

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03-04-2011, 02:26 PM
  #114
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I would have done it without a second thought. It's a weak draft and Tinordi is likely a #3 at best since he's American.

Penner is exactly what we need and he's still young. Plus the turnaround value is higher than what we'd be dishing.

I would much prefer to dump AK and take Penner. Come playoff time we'll see who was right when AK is afraid to go in the corner. How soon we all forget how effective Byfuglien was against Pronger... sheesh.

Penner-Gomez-Cammalleri
Pacioretty-Pleks-Gionta
Moen-Eller-AK (dump after playoffs)
Pouliot-DD-White

No balance on this team right now at all. That would have given us four balanced scoring lines that can play two-way hockey.

But if anyone knows about Penner, it's PG. He has his insiders there still I guess. And Moen probably weighed in.
WTF?
Please enlighten me.

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03-04-2011, 02:32 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Next Best Thing View Post
No to what, exactly?

And Komisarek looked VERY promising for about a season or two. What didn't help him was the fact that he treated the puck like a grenade every time it was on his stick - and that his development dropped to a standstill a couple of seasons into his career. What does this have to do with the way people were bashing Sather badly back in the day, but it looks more and more like McIlrath was a first rounder after all. Maybe not a #10 overall pick, but still. We picked up Tinordi much later, and they are practically the same player.

small edit: We've been lacking a Komisarek ever since he left, our blue-line never recovered that nastyness and intimidation he provided.
No to Tinordi having Pronger like upside. It is so unlikely to happen that it should never ever be mentioned. If Tinordi was having a monster year in the OHL, I'd possibly understand that kind of hype, but common...

But I agree that we've been missing a dman who can be physical.

And no, Komisarek was never ever going to be Scott Stevens for anyone who knew anything about hockey. That was just a massive false hype generated by over excited habs fans. A lot like saying Tinordi has potential to be the next Pronger, no offense.


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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I know. I'm not a big fan of dealing away the future all the time either, but picks and prospects are so over rated around here it's not funny. They have more value than proven players. Not everyone drafted in the first rd pans out. Sometimes taking a risk is necessary, when a 240 lb top 6 forward we really are lacking who can contribute 30goals a year is the player coming back I would be willing to take the risk on him.
I'd have done that deal (Tinordi+1st for Penner). Penner is slightly better than AK, and we could have kept AK too. That would have given us more punch up front. It would also have given us another big body up front which is always nice. At any rate, Penner is certainly a better scoring winger than Halpern. And we did have the cap room.

And let's not forget that Penner will be on a contract year next season. If Penner were actions and I was a broker, I'd invest in that company. You should prolly expect him to tear it up.

EDIT:

BTW, for those saying it's a choice between Penner and Wiz in 11-12, I disagree. It's more of a choice between AK and Penner. And we could trade AK for something and not lose him for nothing while retaining Penner at just a bit more than what AK is making. Or, we could let Wiz go and keep AK. Or heck, even find a way to unload Spacek's last year and keep Penner, AK and Wiz. But that wouldn't have stopped me from making the trade because you can always cross the bridge when you get to it (you can always find a solution).

And yes, 20ish+ 1st rounders and guys like Tinordi... they don't often become impact players, if they make it at all. Maybe he becomes the next Komisarek... which is alright, but not something I'd lose sleep over trading away for a need we have atm.

When you have a team that is a virtual lock to make the playoffs and you have Halpern playing on a top line and the chance to acquire a 20-30 goals winger who's 6'5 and is signed for his contract year after that... You can give up a 1st + an ok prospect.

BTW, those videos... if that's the best Tinordi has to offer.. wow am I ever underwhelmed... Hope there is a lot more to him than that.

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03-04-2011, 02:32 PM
  #116
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WTF?
Please enlighten me.
don't take it personaly, but some people around here seem to think place of birth has some relation with hockey talent/development. no need to go into details, since obv such a thing makes 0 sense.

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03-04-2011, 02:34 PM
  #117
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I think I see where the disconnect is regarding Penner.

Obviously, if you view Penner as a lazy, middling second-line winger who doesn't use his size, and believe Andrei Kostitsyn to be a close comparable, you will not want to trade him for the equivalent of two first-round picks. The problem is, that's not a very good evaluation of Penner and that leads to a number of things being written here that doesn't make more sense. People here probably don't follow the Oilers more than via their traditional media (which is every bit as terrible as ours), so not knowing about Penner is quite normal, but the Oilers also have the best analytical blogs in the world and Penner is a frequent subject of conversation.

Here's a link I invite you to read, and follow to the various articles:
http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/3/1/...odbye-edmonton

Quite besides the microstats and the good-in-the-community stuff, I'd like to especially attract your attention to this tidbit, which involves stats that are decidedly un-micro:
"only twenty wingers have scored more goals than Penner in the last four seasons and only eleven wingers have scored more goals than Penner in the last two seasons."

(Good luck getting that on the UFA market for 4.25 million!)

As for Tinordi -- he was a low-risk, low-impact selection from day one just because of his player type. Defensemen in his mold never become impact players unless they turn into Chris Pronger, and everything I've heard about his development show that he's in no way turning into Chris Pronger. In fact, if anything he is turning into more of an enforcer.

The Habs may have nothing like him in their system, but that doesn't necessarily make Tinordi excessively valuable, because players like what Tinordi projects to be are peripheral pieces to begin with. He may well play in the NHL and top off as a third-pairing bruiser. Not a bad pick to get with the 22nd (though not the 26th and the 46th), but certainly not a vital, untoucheable piece. Guys like this can be found on the UFA market, certainly a lot more easily than guys like Dustin Penner!

As for the first round pick, I realize this is heresy to say on a board called "Hockey's Future", but they're not called "bags of magic beans" for nothing. A late first has a little better than a 25% chance of turning into a quality NHLer.


Last edited by MathMan: 03-04-2011 at 02:41 PM.
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03-04-2011, 02:37 PM
  #118
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Francois Gagnon said between periods on TSN last night that Penner was offered for Montreal's 1st round draft pick in 2011 and Jared Tinordi.

I am so glad this deal DID NOT take place and Edmonton dealt him to Los Angeles.

I see us landing another BIG forward in this year's draft and building around Tinordi and Subban going forward.
That big forward you wish for may be gone by the time the Habs draft. Besides, you must have a lot of faith in Tinordi. Where do you see him fitting on the Habs D? IMO he's no better than a potential #4.

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03-04-2011, 02:37 PM
  #119
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No to Tinordi having Pronger like upside. It is so unlikely to happen that it should never ever be mentioned. If Tinordi was having a monster year in the OHL, I'd possibly understand that kind of hype, but common...

But I agree that we've been missing a dman who can be physical.

And no, Komisarek was never ever going to be Scott Stevens for anyone who knew anything about hockey. That was just a massive false hype generated by over excited habs fans. A lot like saying Tinordi has potential to be the next Pronger, no offense.




I'd have done that deal (Tinordi+1st for Penner). Penner is slightly better than AK, and we could have kept AK too. That would have given us more punch up front. It would also have given us another big body up front which is always nice. At any rate, Penner is certainly a better scoring winger than Halpern. And we did have the cap room.

And let's not forget that Penner will be on a contract year next season. If Penner were actions and I was a broker, I'd invest in that company. You should prolly expect him to tear it up.

And yes, 20ish+ 1st rounders and guys like Tinordi... they don't often become impact players, if they make it at all. Maybe he becomes the next Komisarek... which is alright, but not something I'd lose sleep over trading away for a need we have atm.

When you have a team that is a virtual lock to make the playoffs and you have Halpern playing on a top line and the chance to acquire a 20-30 goals winger who's 6'5 and is signed for his contract year after that... You can give up a 1st + an ok prospect.

BTW, those videos... if that's the best Tinordi has to offer.. wow am I ever underwhelmed... Hope there is a lot more to him than that.
I agree with everything you've said. I would like to add that Tinordi has a better chance of never making it in the NHL as a regular than he does of ever becoming Pronger like. I'm not saying he won't make it, but expectations need to be put in check.

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03-04-2011, 02:38 PM
  #120
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No to Tinordi having Pronger like upside. It is so unlikely to happen that it should never ever be mentioned. If Tinordi was having a monster year in the OHL, I'd possibly understand that kind of hype, but common...

But I agree that we've been missing a dman who can be physical.

And no, Komisarek was never ever going to be Scott Stevens for anyone who knew anything about hockey. That was just a massive false hype generated by over excited habs fans. A lot like saying Tinordi has potential to be the next Pronger, no offense.
Oh none taken, believe me.

Komisarek was looking very promising at one point, especially in his peak year, and was still young on top of it. Then the Lucic crap happened and he became a joke, swaying everyone's perception of him. Even the biggest Komisarek homer couldn't continue defending him at that point... and then he went to the leafs as the last straw. It does not surprize me at all seeing hab fans talk about him this way now after all is said and done.

As for Tinordi's upside, almost everyone is going on hearsay in this thread. I for one am actually going to watch him tonight so I know what I'm talking about the next time around, I suggest you do the same.

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03-04-2011, 02:39 PM
  #121
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don't take it personaly, but some people around here seem to think place of birth has some relation with hockey talent/development. no need to go into details, since obv such a thing makes 0 sense.
And the US ans Russia have won the last to WJC. All those Canadians in the last 2 WJ will be busts

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03-04-2011, 02:41 PM
  #122
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I think I see where the disconnect is regarding Penner.

Obviously, if you view Penner as a lazy, middling second-line winger, and believe Andrei Kostitsyn to be a close comparable, you will not want to trade him for the equivalent of two first-round picks. The problem is, that's not a very good evaluation of Penner and that leads to a number of things being written here that doesn't make more sense. People here probably don't follow the Oilers more than via their traditional media (which is every bit as terrible as ours), so not knowing about Penner is quite normal, but the Oilers also have the best analytical blogs in the world and Penner is a frequent subject of conversation.

Here's a link I invite you to read, and follow to the various articles:
http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/3/1/...odbye-edmonton

Quite besides the microstats and the good-in-the-community stuff, I'd like to especially attract your attention to this tidbit, which involves stats that are decidedly un-micro:
"only twenty wingers have scored more goals than Penner in the last four seasons and only eleven wingers have scored more goals than Penner in the last two seasons."

(Good luck getting that on the UFA market for 4.25 million!)

As for Tinordi -- he was a low-risk, low-impact selection from day one just because of his player type. Defensemen in his mold never become impact players unless they turn into Chris Pronger, and everything I've heard about his development show that he's in no way turning into Chris Pronger. In fact, if anything he is turning into more of an enforcer.

The Habs may have nothing like him in their system, but that doesn't necessarily make Tinordi excessively valuable, because players like what Tinordi projects to be are peripheral pieces to begin with. He may well play in the NHL and top off as a third-pairing bruiser. Not a bad pick to get with the 22nd (though not the 26th and the 46th), but certainly not a vital, untoucheable piece. Guys like this can be found on the UFA market, certainly a lot more easily than guys like Dustin Penner!

As for the first round pick, I realize this is heresy to say on a board called "Hockey's Future", but they're not called "bags of magic beans" for nothing. A late first has a little better than a 25% chance of turning into a quality NHLer.
Thanks mathman, I knew I could count on you to put this into perspective lol

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03-04-2011, 02:41 PM
  #123
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It does sound like Gagnon's just trying to justify getting sucked in by the fake twitter.

But stepping aside from the question of whether it was ever actually proposed from either side in real life, and just treating it as a fan proposal, I would probably pass on it from a Habs POV.

I don't really look at Tinordi as having equivalent value to a 1st round pick anymore. He's probably a 2nd-3rd rounder based on his current play, and I would value him accordingly.

That said, our forthcoming 1st round pick is probably something like 18th. 16th-22th-ish. Say. That's the wheelhouse of where we picked Pacioretty, and where we really ought to hope to be able to do something to make up for some other picks we screwed up in that range recently. It's still a player who *should* be an upper-echelon player for the team for many years. With risk. But with potentially high reward as well.

Penner is good, and I think he would have helped us, but it's still just 1 year and a bit from him. And he does add $4M to a cap situation that is already a bit full up front... there would be players let go/un-signed to accommodate adding his cap hit. AK might have been one. Or a good defenseman. So the extra year Penner brings on his contract comes at a cost too.

Bottom line, I wouldn't give up the 1st alone for Penner. The market value for him was higher, clearly, and that's ok. But I'm happy the Habs weren't in the market.

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03-04-2011, 02:56 PM
  #124
Mr San Diego Hab
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Originally Posted by uiCk View Post
don't take it personaly, but some people around here seem to think place of birth has some relation with hockey talent/development. no need to go into details, since obv such a thing makes 0 sense.
No worries…I have yet to take what someone posts on a message board personal.
I tend to get a laugh out of such banter so hope he takes me up on my “enlighten me” challenge.

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03-04-2011, 02:59 PM
  #125
Kriss E
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
I don't know for sure the pick will be a less talented player than Penner or less productive, it's called probability. It's highly probable that the pick never turns out as good as Penner. Sure there's some risk involved, but getting a 30g scorer offsets the risk. Tinordi was a meh pick from the day he was selected imo. 30 g scoring 240lb wingers are much more difficult to find than 4-6 dman.
I disagree with your view that Tinordi was a ''meh pick''. I agree with MM saying we probably didn't have to move up and could have selected him at the 26th rank. But the organization didn't want to miss out on him, I have no issues with that. I also have a lot of good faith in this organization when it comes to selecting Dman. PK, Weber, Streit, O'Byrne, Komisarek, Gorges (not at the draft but still), McDonagh, Emelin (ya he's a in Russia, no way of knowing if he'll ever play here, but he is a solid Dman over there). Sure, Fischer was a flop, but we've had a good number of success with our D selections.

Also, Penner has scored 30G once. Came awfully close with 29 another year. So, he's not a proven 30G scorer.
But as I said, if it was Tinordi heads up for Penner, I certainly would have thought about it a lot more. Adding a 1st rounder with the Oilers not shipping in a pick back themselves made me close my eyes right away.

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