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Another Top 5 Pick?

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Old
03-02-2011, 09:24 AM
  #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cam98 View Post
i would trade gagner + la 1st, + 2nd to get another top 5 pick and try draft larsson and couturier or rnh
I wouldn't offer so much unless it was for a top 3 maybe 4 pick. Is Hamilton that good? If we're trading Gags we need an NHL ready draft pick at centre, thats SC.

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Old
03-02-2011, 09:29 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by thadd View Post
I'm assuming that you're suggesting that we package a player with those picks. If not....
Assuming makes an ass out of you. That is all.

LAK 1st + EDM 2nd. Work from there. I was pretty clear.

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03-02-2011, 09:50 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Halibut View Post
That would still be a tough deal for either of those teams to make. You are getting Hemsky for one year and that's probably it unless your team is suddenly challenging for a playoff spot. The Isles got burnt on the Smyth deal (even if what they gave up didnt help us much) I think they'd be scared off from doing the same thing with Hemsky. What are the chances Hemsky sticks with a non-playoff team that he has no history with when he becomes a UFA? I wouldnt bet on it if I was the Islanders or Avs.
Absolutely, permission to get an extension would be in there. If Ales didn't agree to any term with a team then, yes, his value wouldn't be nearly as high.

My thinking was along the lines of a team like the Iles, who have been bad for so long, OR the Avs, who have shown they should be able to be a good team, that another top draft pick may not be as tempting as a signed proven NHL'er who can light up your team and get you over that hump to being competitive.

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03-02-2011, 05:50 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Dr_oil View Post
My assumption, from hearing Tambo talk after the trade deadline, is that they will try to package Hemsky with picks and move up nicely in the draft. To me, Hemsky plus LA's first should get a team like the Isles or Avs (teams who need to get better now, not in 3 years) to trade their pick as it improves them for next season.

isles are something like 18-14-3 in their last 35 games.That 1-20-3 stretch earlier in the season killed them.

Isles are not going into the offseason thinking' if we had Hemsky's we'd be in the playoffs

Snow wants a 20-22 yr old,who will grow along with his other young prospects.Another key is that this youngster would be on a cheap contract.Signing Hemsky's gonna cost quite a bit and Tavares/KO/Grabner are due raises obver the next 2 summers.


Moulson's almost at 30 goals,with about 15-18 games left.He'll make a reasonable $3.1m per, for the next 3 yrs.I expect Granber to get a nice raise after his rookie seaon of 25-30 goals.Moulson+Grabner's salaries for the next 2-3 yrs combined, will probably equal what Hemsky takes home alone each season on his next contract.


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Old
03-04-2011, 12:23 AM
  #30
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I think we should try to deal with the Avs.

Hejduk and Foote are probably done this year. They could use some leadership and someone on the wings. They could also use a left defence and a goalie. Next year they will have more cap space than we do.

To Col:
Horcoff (of course would have to waive NMC)
Hemsky
Smid

To Edm:
Stastny
1st

If the first ends up being in the top four we can throw in Martindale.

If St Louis finishes better than the bottom ten the Avs still get a first round pick this year.

We try to get Larsson and Landeskog. With the LA pick we take McNeill. I would also make one more trade to get another late 1st to pick up Zibanejad.

Hall Stastny Eberle
Landeskog Gagner Paajarvi

On defence: Whitney, Gilbert, Larsson, Peckham, Petry, Vandermeer. Foster is seventh.

We pick up a couple of goalies with the remaining picks (maybe with both of the thirds) and whatever Stu wants.

Notwithstanding the prospects that make the team next year we would be in pretty decent shape.

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Old
03-04-2011, 12:40 AM
  #31
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This is talked about every year, no one ever trades top picks, it just doesn't happen. We will get one of the big 4.

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03-04-2011, 12:52 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by okgooil View Post
This is talked about every year, no one ever trades top picks, it just doesn't happen. We will get one of the big 4.

This reminds me of the schoolyard and wanting to trade your lunch so you will trade 3 rice cakes (Gagner, L.A.'s pick, 2nd round pick) for a slice of pizza. Its just quantity over quality, and you always will take quality first over quantity.

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Old
03-04-2011, 12:59 AM
  #33
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how about la's first and hemsky for schenn and la's second...

guess it could happen....

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Old
03-04-2011, 01:15 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by bereanca View Post
I think we should try to deal with the Avs.

Hejduk and Foote are probably done this year. They could use some leadership and someone on the wings. They could also use a left defence and a goalie. Next year they will have more cap space than we do.

To Col:
Horcoff (of course would have to waive NMC)
Hemsky
Smid

To Edm:
Stastny
1st

If the first ends up being in the top four we can throw in Martindale.

If St Louis finishes better than the bottom ten the Avs still get a first round pick this year.

We try to get Larsson and Landeskog. With the LA pick we take McNeill. I would also make one more trade to get another late 1st to pick up Zibanejad.

Hall Stastny Eberle
Landeskog Gagner Paajarvi

On defence: Whitney, Gilbert, Larsson, Peckham, Petry, Vandermeer. Foster is seventh.

We pick up a couple of goalies with the remaining picks (maybe with both of the thirds) and whatever Stu wants.

Notwithstanding the prospects that make the team next year we would be in pretty decent shape.
Horcoff has negative value due to contract being too much $$$ and too long. Martindale is a project, and isn't worth that much right now. He might improve enough to warrant some attention from other team's pro-scouts, but it's unlikely that he would be enough to put this deal over the top. Plus, Horc and Smid are not worth a top 10 pick or, conversely, they are also not equal to Stastny. There is no way they take that deal.... ever.

The rebuild is on in Colorado so they are in a similar situation to us. If someone called up and offered us that package for a top 10 pick and our #1 center (if we had one) we would hang up. If we want Colorado's pick, it would start with one of the big three... and that isn't happening.

Too bad NYI is full of centers because they are the best trading partner of any of the projected top 5: FLA, OTT, COL are all rebuilding so that's a negatory. COL is also in the division... double negative. NYI and us are the only other teams likely in the top 5.

I really think if we trade up, it might be into the top 10 (which is good) but likely we will only get as high as 12, which is fine with me. Based on the fluctuations in the draft this year we could easily end up with Larsson and Strome or Couturier and Siemens that way.

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03-04-2011, 01:54 AM
  #35
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I don't think any of the teams in the bottom-5 will be trading their picks, all of them are rebuilding.

This draft is looking to be fairly weak, I hope the Oilers don't invest to much trying to get a higher pick. However, having said that, I think it would be great if EDM could package up LA's 1st+ and be in a position to draft Seimens.

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03-04-2011, 09:05 AM
  #36
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Stu was interviewed by Tencer after the Penner trade. When asked about this draft, his opinion was that the first elite level was 12 players deep. The top 2-5 may be a little ahead but he didn't think there was much of a spread until the 13th pick.

IMO, we will be moving up but it won't be into the top 5, it will be to 10-12. The LA pick, our 2nd, and maybe a player is going to be the cost but I think it will get done.

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Old
03-04-2011, 10:32 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seanzie888 View Post
Horcoff has negative value due to contract being too much $$$ and too long.
You're looking at this from an Edmonton perspective. For us, his contract sucks. Capgeek is down right now but if I remember correctly the Avs will have about $30M in cap space next year which can easily absorb Horc's salary. And in a couple of years the salary drops significantly.

Quote:
Martindale is a project, and isn't worth that much right now.
If the Avs are in position to draft in the top four and are looking at one of the centres:

Couturier
Ht Wt GP G A P PIM
6'04" 191 52 35 54 89 29

RNH
Ht Wt GP G A P PIM
6' 164 62 20 67 87 43

Martindale
Ht Wt GP G A P PIM
6'03" 190 58 33 46 79 22

He is a drop but would make a pretty good second line centre behind Duchene. The Avs would have had ample opportunity to see him as their AHL team is in Lake Erie.

Quote:
Plus, Horc and Smid are not worth a top 10 pick or, conversely, they are also not equal to Stastny.
It's not just the value of the player to the originating team but the value to the acquiring team as well. You conveniently left out Hemsky. The Avs really need a top six winger and Hemsky is one of the better ones out there.

Smid is a quality d that needs a change of scenery and he fits in well with both their age group and their need for a left d. He does have a bit of nastiness to him and one of the complaints on their boards is how soft their d is.

If you check the Avs boards they have a somewhat similar relationship to Stastny as we do with Horc. Many of them absolutely love him but some recognize it is really Duchene's team and that he is overpaid.

Quote:
The rebuild is on in Colorado so they are in a similar situation to us.
They are a couple of years ahead of us. They are at the point where they need to start adding a veteran presence, especially with the very real possibility of losing both Hejduk and Foote after this season. They get three veterans and only lose one roster player. Horc can shelter Duchene until he is fully ready to assume the #1C role. Colorado has the second worst PK in the league. Horc and Hemsky are a ready-made unit which can help. Horc between Hemsky and Flash would look pretty good.

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Old
03-04-2011, 02:10 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Dr_oil View Post
My assumption, from hearing Tambo talk after the trade deadline, is that they will try to package Hemsky with picks and move up nicely in the draft. To me, Hemsky plus LA's first should get a team like the Isles or Avs (teams who need to get better now, not in 3 years) to trade their pick as it improves them for next season.
I like everything I've heard about Landesdog and would draft him with the first round pick. I think Eberle is smart enough to play center and should be given an opportunity. If not Hall should be able to fill the void. Draft McNeil with the LA's 1st round pick.

Landesdog-Hall-Eberle

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03-04-2011, 03:31 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bereanca View Post

If you check the Avs boards they have a somewhat similar relationship to Stastny as we do with Horc. Many of them absolutely love him but some recognize it is really Duchene's team and that he is overpaid.
Stastny still carries much more trade value then Horcooff and every GM in the league would give more for him. You would need to add the equivalent of Pajaarvi to the Oilers side to get the Avs interested in that deal.

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03-04-2011, 05:01 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Boris Sukmihov View Post
Stastny still carries much more trade value then Horcooff and every GM in the league would give more for him. You would need to add the equivalent of Pajaarvi to the Oilers side to get the Avs interested in that deal.
Absolutely no way you could do Horcoff for Stastny straight across. Did you see my original proposal (post #30)?

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Old
03-04-2011, 05:18 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by bereanca View Post
Absolutely no way you could do Horcoff for Stastny straight across. Did you see my original proposal (post #30)?
I don't think you could get Stastny alone for Hemsky (1 year), Horcoff and Smid, never mind the Avalanche first rounder.

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03-04-2011, 05:19 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Dr_oil View Post
Absolutely, permission to get an extension would be in there. If Ales didn't agree to any term with a team then, yes, his value wouldn't be nearly as high.
And why on earth would Ales Hemsky be interested in signing a long term deal with the Islanders? He may have suffered a concussion but Hemsky isn't an idiot.

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03-04-2011, 05:36 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Cam98 View Post
i would trade gagner + la 1st, + 2nd to get another top 5 pick and try draft larsson and couturier or rnh
That is dumb, so you trade a 6th overall, LA's 1st, and 2nd to move up for another young kid who is currently much more useless than Gagner and betting that whomever you pick will be better than Gagner + insert players picked.

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03-04-2011, 06:00 PM
  #44
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With Tambellini slamming on the brakes and still selling off assets i'd take a shot at a second top five pick. I'd go as far as Gagner,Omark and the Kings first rounder in exchange for that Islander first pick. Once teams make the first 6-8 selections in the draft i think you'll see teams more willing to move down. It would be a difficult thing to do landing that second top 5 pick but i think the Oilers may be able to tempt the Islanders with some of the Kids they have.

The NHL is due to have a team move up in that lottery process they have, not sure finishing 30th is a lock for that first pick this year. If the Oilers were to finish 29th and the 28th place team won the draft lottery that could set the Oilers up with the one and two. Losing out on Schenn leaves us with little option but to take Couturier. Why not aim high and take a shot at getting both Couturier and Larsson. Outside of half a dozen players on the Oiler roster i'd even let them take 3 roster players and that pick for their pick.

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03-04-2011, 07:23 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by Quicksilver ballet View Post
With Tambellini slamming on the brakes and still selling off assets i'd take a shot at a second top five pick. I'd go as far as Gagner,Omark and the Kings first rounder in exchange for that Islander first pick. Once teams make the first 6-8 selections in the draft i think you'll see teams more willing to move down. It would be a difficult thing to do landing that second top 5 pick but i think the Oilers may be able to tempt the Islanders with some of the Kids they have.

.
Here's an idea.Take it or ignore it:look at a trade from both gm's perspectives.

Snow wants a young,potentail stud.Not 2-3 less talented pieces.Instead of proposing fantasy trades,that don't have a snowballs chance in hell of happening,why not propose something that maybe both gms would go for?

Isles imo would have little interest in Gagner,zero interest in a small shootout specialist like Omark and questionable interest in a lower 1st at the expense of their own first rounder.

Isles have drafted a lot of promising youngsters over the last 3 drafts.They want those kids coming in and taking spots.

Moulson-Tavares-PA/Nino/Petrov
Grabner-Neilsen-Okposo
Bailey-?????-Comeau


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Old
03-04-2011, 07:34 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
And why on earth would Ales Hemsky be interested in signing a long term deal with the Islanders? He may have suffered a concussion but Hemsky isn't an idiot.
He wouldn't be.

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Old
03-05-2011, 12:17 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
I don't think you could get Stastny alone for Hemsky (1 year), Horcoff and Smid, never mind the Avalanche first rounder.
What do you base this on?

I don't know if you're seriously overestimating Stastny or underestimating Horcoff, Hemsky and Smid.

Stastny and Horcoff are obviously very different players but their roles on their new respective teams could be relatively as valuable.

Stastny is a very good centre. He is ranked about 17 in points for centres. His fo's are about 53% and he has more than double the number of TkA's to GvA's.

Horcoff has a better +/- and more pp goals in a third less games. Probably two-thirds of his playing time this year has been babysitting two raw rookies. It allowed them grow and develop their game with relatively few restrictions. We've seen the results. Part of Horcoff's problem here (beyond the contract and what line he should be centring) is we've had to depend on him too much. We've spread him too thin and as a consequence his performance drops. Reduce his time by keeping him off the pp (Colorado's is in the top third), playing behind Duchene and on the pk which is only better than our own. That's not saying much.

Hemsky is a big-game player. He's had precious few of those in the last five years. Pure conjecture but I think he has become extremely disappointed. You hear it in his interviews like a couple of months ago when he said players were afraid (to make mistakes) and recently when he said he was keeping his options open. I've said elsewhere that this distraction leaves him vulnerable to injury. I think he wants to be counted on but at the same time not be the only one. The final nail came with the Penner trade. He not only lost a linemate he connected with but the only other quality NHL-ready player on the team. To me, he looked defeated. Knowing how much would now fall on his shoulders, that this team would be no where near ready when his contract comes up and perhaps...perhaps...even a little envy for Penner that he is now on a contending team.

Horcoff is basically the only centre Hemsky has known. Shipping them together will ease the transition for both. Next year, Hemsky does have something to play for-a new contract. Put Flash on the other side and it could be fun to watch, as long as we're not playing them. I think moving these two to Colorado will see a renewed Horcoff and a rejuvenated Hemsky.

Horcoff's contract is actually a year longer than Stastny's but the salary in the last couple of years drops to $4M and $3M respectively. The cost is almost a wash.

Smid can provide a bit of grit and maybe in a new environment also bring some of that offensive punch we've been waiting for. I like him but with the d prospects he will be replaced anyway.

If Martindale continues his progress he can fit in on the second line behind Duchene and Horcoff move down (or just be moved period) and be paid more in line with his role.

As much as the Oilers are now Hall's team (not Hemsky's), the Avs are now Duchene's and not Stastny's.

I still think it's a fair deal for both teams.

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Old
03-05-2011, 01:25 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by bereanca View Post
You're looking at this from an Edmonton perspective. For us, his contract sucks. Capgeek is down right now but if I remember correctly the Avs will have about $30M in cap space next year which can easily absorb Horc's salary. And in a couple of years the salary drops significantly.



If the Avs are in position to draft in the top four and are looking at one of the centres:

Couturier
Ht Wt GP G A P PIM
6'04" 191 52 35 54 89 29

RNH
Ht Wt GP G A P PIM
6' 164 62 20 67 87 43

Martindale
Ht Wt GP G A P PIM
6'03" 190 58 33 46 79 22

He is a drop but would make a pretty good second line centre behind Duchene. The Avs would have had ample opportunity to see him as their AHL team is in Lake Erie.



It's not just the value of the player to the originating team but the value to the acquiring team as well. You conveniently left out Hemsky. The Avs really need a top six winger and Hemsky is one of the better ones out there.

Smid is a quality d that needs a change of scenery and he fits in well with both their age group and their need for a left d. He does have a bit of nastiness to him and one of the complaints on their boards is how soft their d is.

If you check the Avs boards they have a somewhat similar relationship to Stastny as we do with Horc. Many of them absolutely love him but some recognize it is really Duchene's team and that he is overpaid.



They are a couple of years ahead of us. They are at the point where they need to start adding a veteran presence, especially with the very real possibility of losing both Hejduk and Foote after this season. They get three veterans and only lose one roster player. Horc can shelter Duchene until he is fully ready to assume the #1C role. Colorado has the second worst PK in the league. Horc and Hemsky are a ready-made unit which can help. Horc between Hemsky and Flash would look pretty good.
Ok, first off, it is important to note that while they may have the cap space to take Horcoff on, again they do not want him. He's not the type of player they want.

Stastny may be over paid but he still produces 60-70 pts a season. Last year he almost scored 80! You don't get an 80 pt scorer for Horcoff, Hemsky and Smid. That's a total of almost 11 mil in salary. Not only that but in there we're only giving up 1 future player: Smid.

Horcoff is over the hill and Hemer is currently in his prime—if he can stay healthy (another detractor). There's no counter balance to Horcoff's salary or Hemsky's injuries. As a result, we're getting the 2 best things in the deal! I agree that Smid is probably what they need on the back end but they don't need him so badly that they are willing to over look the value disparity here.

Martindale is considered a project because while he does have great numbers in the OHL there is some concern as to whether or not he can translate his game to the pro level. Check it out on HF prospect profiles. I'm pretty sure he's a 7.0 D. D for unlikely to reach potential and could drop 3 ratings.

The reason I overlooked Hemsky in the original analysis is purely because Hemsky on his own might be worth Stastny or the 1st (unless it is top 5)—and I stress might. But that leaves Horcoff, Smid and maybe Martindale to be equal to the other half of the deal. Nope, not a chance.

But if you want a real indicator of value go and pitch this deal to the Avs fans. I'd also have a towel ready because it'll get messy.

You might get away with Gagner + LA's 1st for COL's 1st but even that is tenuous because it is likely they they get a top 5 pick and thus a real player. You might get STL's 1st from COL for Hemsky but again it's likely they just hang on to it.

Plus, as a rule, you try to deal a little as possible within your own division. Otherwise you see your former players cost you games on a regular basis. Just not a good overall idea.

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03-05-2011, 01:29 PM
  #49
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Hemsky+Gagner+LA 1st 2011

for

Bogosian+Antropov+ATL 1st 2011

Or the such.

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03-05-2011, 01:38 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bereanca View Post

To Col:
Horcoff (of course would have to waive NMC)
Hemsky
Smid

To Edm:
Stastny
1st
Take out Horcoff and the Avs 1st and they still say no.

Not only does Horcoff have no value, I imagine Edmonton would have to give up a significant asset just for another club to take on the remaining 19.5M left on his contract (Horcoff + LA's 1st for 7th rounder).

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