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Francois Gagnon: Tinordi and 1st round round draft pick for Penner

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Old
03-05-2011, 04:28 PM
  #176
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Originally Posted by Subban76 View Post
You're right, lazy ***** don't grow on trees.

Penner would have been a huge mistake, especially at the cost of Tinordi and a 1st pick.

Penner's stats in is first LA Kings game:

- nil all across with ice time of 16:45. Apparently a no show with litle impact on the game.

What a first impression! I'd rather have A.Kost than Penner.
i guess he had am impact today...

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03-05-2011, 05:38 PM
  #177
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That is why Penner has more points this season and was widely superior last? I am not the biggest Penner fan but he trumps Kostitsyn at least in recent years.
Penner's point scoring ratio is .58 per game. AK's is .57. They are pretty much the same players. AK hits more, Penner is a slightly better sharpshooter.

Personally, I find it was quite an overpayment. Especially after seeing Buffalo land Boyes for a 2rounder. Arnott is about the only other PF traded (unless I forgot others) and he went for a 3rd/4th liner +2nd. I don't think Penner was worth Tinordi+1st even if he fills a void.
Personally, I wanted Zherdev. Could have gotten him for nothing. Surely, he can be inconsistent, but still he's a 20G scorer. He scored 15 in 49GP with the Flyers but that's with very limited Ice time including very low PP minutes. I'm sure he could have been very useful to us and for free. Too bad.

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03-05-2011, 07:59 PM
  #178
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Originally Posted by JackZap View Post
i guess he had am impact today...
haha

Yes he scored but 16:57 with 2 shots and -1

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03-05-2011, 08:14 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
Penner's point scoring ratio is .58 per game. AK's is .57. They are pretty much the same players. AK hits more, Penner is a slightly better sharpshooter.
This season sure however we must account for the fact Penner is playing on the worst team in the league, whereas Kostitsyn is on a playoff bound team. In addition, last season Penner was superior. What he does for LA will prove his worth to some degree. That said, I agree with you about Zherdev. Locker run issues or not, the worst case scenario we waiver him again.

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03-05-2011, 10:21 PM
  #180
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Penners don't grow on trees.
No they don't, but it took him a while to develop into that player. Why else do you think he wasn't drafted ? You have to be patient. If you're going to invest a 1st+2nd into a prospect, you gotta be patient.

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You can't teach size and size on the top 6 is rather hard to find. Stay at home defensemen on the other hand, are a lot easier to find.
Stay at home defensiveman with a physical edge and a mean streak ?

Niklas Grossman, but not the best fighter.
Mike Komisarek. Overpaid and sucks
Matt Greene expensive player, but a solid one.
Ryan O'bryne ? Would anyone consider him one ?
Robyn Regehr Expensive and starting to slow down.

I'm sure there's a couple others. You can say there's as many as powerforwards. Who not only score and fight, but hit with authority.

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03-06-2011, 10:04 AM
  #181
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Originally Posted by Ayatollah Chowmeini View Post
do you equate offensive stats in leagues other than the nhl with "hockey ability"? corey locke says hi.

i think skating, positioning, hitting, and a good first pass all constitute 'hockey ability' for a defensive defenseman and i've heard no real complaints about tinordi's development in these areas.
I think you missed the point. People are throwing big names around when comparing Tinordi and it just doesn't make sense. Sure Locke showed lots of skill and was a junior star. But how many guys who are completely average offensively, maybe even well below average turn into regular point producing players in the NHL?

That was the point trying to be made. Tinordi isin't going to be a Chara. If he hasn't shown that Offensive ability in Junior how do we expect it to suddenly show up in the NHL? I agree in the assessment that if he makes it, if being a key word, he'll be more of a better skating Hal Gill type. (nothing to scoff at).

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03-06-2011, 12:28 PM
  #182
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I think you missed the point. People are throwing big names around when comparing Tinordi and it just doesn't make sense. Sure Locke showed lots of skill and was a junior star. But how many guys who are completely average offensively, maybe even well below average turn into regular point producing players in the NHL?

That was the point trying to be made. Tinordi isin't going to be a Chara. If he hasn't shown that Offensive ability in Junior how do we expect it to suddenly show up in the NHL? I agree in the assessment that if he makes it, if being a key word, he'll be more of a better skating Hal Gill type. (nothing to scoff at).
Exactly, a young Gill is fine, but not something we have to hang onto like it's a secet treasure. Tinordi is easily expendable and easily replaced. Penner, not so much.

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03-06-2011, 12:47 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
Exactly, a young Gill is fine, but not something we have to hang onto like it's a secet treasure. Tinordi is easily expendable and easily replaced. Penner, not so much.
The problem with your equation is that the issue is not Tinordi versus Penner in a vaccuum. The issue is 7 years of Tinordi plus 7 years of the 1st round pick we give up versus 1.25 years of Penner, who is being paid $4.25M to boot.

I maintain we are better off getting a similar player (to the one that some here dream that Penner is) via FA and signing him for years, even if at a salary of slightly higher than $4.25M than giving up huge assets for a short contract.

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03-06-2011, 12:52 PM
  #184
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I continue to hold my opinion that I want AK and Gomez on this team. Also very glad that deal didn't go down. Not even close to a fair deal. Very much looking fwd to a future with Tinordi.

PG IMO made the adage true - the best move is to do nothing (aside from the pre-deadline tweaks which will again pay dividends like Moore did last year). Liking Sopel more every game. He does the job and will make Hammer and Gill's minutes more valuable.

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03-06-2011, 01:55 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
The problem with your equation is that the issue is not Tinordi versus Penner in a vaccuum. The issue is 7 years of Tinordi plus 7 years of the 1st round pick we give up versus 1.25 years of Penner, who is being paid $4.25M to boot.

I maintain we are better off getting a similar player (to the one that some here dream that Penner is) via FA and signing him for years, even if at a salary of slightly higher than $4.25M than giving up huge assets for a short contract.
What's to say we have Tinordi in the NHL for 7 years? What's to say this unknown first round pick ever makes the NHL let alone 7 years worth. Tinordi is not expected to step into the NHL right away by the sounds of things.

If we're going to make assumptions why can't we assume we'll be able to resign Penner to a 5 year deal?

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03-06-2011, 02:59 PM
  #186
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[QUOTE=angry pirate;31460485]What's to say we have Tinordi in the NHL for 7 years? What's to say this unknown first round pick ever makes the NHL let alone 7 years worth. Tinordi is not expected to step into the NHL right away by the sounds of things.

If we're going to make assumptions why can't we assume we'll be able to resign Penner to a 5 year deal?[/QUOTE]

Penner is married to a california girl and it is public knowledge that he wants to go their once a UFA.

Not sure Habs had a shot at resign him. Much prefer keeping Tinordi and our 1st pick than taking such a risk for a player I never really wanted anyways. He would have a been a decent plug at best. There is better out there.

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03-06-2011, 03:18 PM
  #187
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
Exactly, a young Gill is fine, but not something we have to hang onto like it's a secet treasure. Tinordi is easily expendable and easily replaced. Penner, not so much.
What???

Penner is a 20-30 goal scoring top 6 winger, they are one of most easily replaceable things in the NHL.

Tinordi is a long term prospect with some unique characteristics.

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03-06-2011, 03:23 PM
  #188
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
The problem with your equation is that the issue is not Tinordi versus Penner in a vaccuum. The issue is 7 years of Tinordi plus 7 years of the 1st round pick we give up versus 1.25 years of Penner, who is being paid $4.25M to boot.

I maintain we are better off getting a similar player (to the one that some here dream that Penner is) via FA and signing him for years, even if at a salary of slightly higher than $4.25M than giving up huge assets for a short contract.
Sry but this is all fine and well except, the 1st rd pick we might not even want anymore in 7years, same goes for Tinordi. There is noone like Dustin Penner on the free agent market. You won't get a better scorer for a smaller cap hit.

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What???

Penner is a 20-30 goal scoring top 6 winger, they are one of most easily replaceable things in the NHL.

Tinordi is a long term prospect with some unique characteristics.
240lb30g scorers are everywheres? Offenseless dman are hard to come by? What are you saying? Tinordi is a prospect that may never make it.

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03-06-2011, 04:09 PM
  #189
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Stay at home defensiveman with a physical edge and a mean streak ?

Niklas Grossman, but not the best fighter.
Mike Komisarek. Overpaid and sucks
Matt Greene expensive player, but a solid one.
Ryan O'bryne ? Would anyone consider him one ?
Robyn Regehr Expensive and starting to slow down.

I'm sure there's a couple others. You can say there's as many as powerforwards. Who not only score and fight, but hit with authority.
Just a few of the first page of NHL.com in hits, not even going further...

Schenn
Seabrook
Greene
Weber
Orpik
Gleason
Peckham
Girardi
Murray
O'Brien
Meszaros
Seidenberg
Zanon
Erskine
Phaneuf
Methot
Ristric
Sbisa
Coburn
Sarich

Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
The problem with your equation is that the issue is not Tinordi versus Penner in a vaccuum. The issue is 7 years of Tinordi plus 7 years of the 1st round pick we give up versus 1.25 years of Penner, who is being paid $4.25M to boot.

I maintain we are better off getting a similar player (to the one that some here dream that Penner is) via FA and signing him for years, even if at a salary of slightly higher than $4.25M than giving up huge assets for a short contract.
How are Tinordi and that first round pick guaranteed NHL'ers playing a minimum of 7 years each? Do we have to go through the draft system to show that if there is one guarantee in drafting, it's that there are no such guarantees?

Just to show how ridiculous it is to presume entirely one way not counting the other possibilities, here's a scenario along the same lines:

A Dustin Penner re-signing in Montreal, playing at least 6-7 years is better than Tinordi not making the NHL and that 1st round pick not making it to the NHL either.

See what I mean?

Come on people. You don't like Penner? That's fine. But you don't know, I don't know, no one knows if Tinordi will ever have the impact that some put on him. As a matter of fact, we don't know if he'll even make the NHL one day! So please don't base your judgment on pipe dreams. We've seen way too many of them fall to the way side.

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03-06-2011, 04:12 PM
  #190
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
240lb30g scorers are everywheres? Offenseless dman are hard to come by? What are you saying? Tinordi is a prospect that may never make it.
You keep pumping up his size, but he barely hits and is as inconsistent as AK. Not that I have a problem with that. I can perfectly live with AK, but I wouldn't expect teams to give up a 1st round prospect + 1st pick for him. So I don't see how Penner is worth that much either.

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03-06-2011, 04:18 PM
  #191
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You keep pumping up his size, but he barely hits and is as inconsistent as AK. Not that I have a problem with that. I can perfectly live with AK, but I wouldn't expect teams to give up a 1st round prospect + 1st pick for him. So I don't see how Penner is worth that much either.
Penner has much more value than AK. I love AK, but he isn't the consistent performer Dustin Penner is. I think AK would flourish elsewhere and likely wouldn't give him up, but Penner has much higher value around the league. A 240lb forward doesn't have to play overly physical, his size alone makes him difficult to handle.

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03-06-2011, 04:21 PM
  #192
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What's to say we have Tinordi in the NHL for 7 years? What's to say this unknown first round pick ever makes the NHL let alone 7 years worth. Tinordi is not expected to step into the NHL right away by the sounds of things.

If we're going to make assumptions why can't we assume we'll be able to resign Penner to a 5 year deal?
Give me a freakin break.

Did you think I don't know that Tinordi and the 1st round pick are only POTENTIALS? No, I knew that. But someone made the straight Tinordi to Penner comparison, saying Tinordi has only a CHANCE to make it as a good NHLer while Penner is already there.

My point in replying is that first of all, it is not just Tinordi that should be compared, but TWO prospects. Second, you have to multiply the percentage chance of one of them making it by the NUMBER OF YEARS we get to have them.

So let's say Tinordi and Firstpick each have a 25% chance of making it to Penner's level. Well, that's a weighted average of 3.5 years of good player versus 1.25 years of good player. Plus there is a good chance that some of the 3.5 years will come at a much cheaper salary to boot.

See what I mean now?

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03-06-2011, 05:14 PM
  #193
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
Penner has much more value than AK. I love AK, but he isn't the consistent performer Dustin Penner is. I think AK would flourish elsewhere and likely wouldn't give him up, but Penner has much higher value around the league. A 240lb forward doesn't have to play overly physical, his size alone makes him difficult to handle.
Penner's career scoring ratio is .58 per game, AK's is .57. So, how is Penner a more consistent performer exactly? His size give him an extra value, but he isn't much more consistent than AK. This isn't the issue anyways, I'd have loved to add him. Much better than having Halpern on our top line. But I just don't think he's worth that price. But I see Tinordi higher up than you as well.

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03-06-2011, 08:27 PM
  #194
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Give me a freakin break.

Did you think I don't know that Tinordi and the 1st round pick are only POTENTIALS? No, I knew that. But someone made the straight Tinordi to Penner comparison, saying Tinordi has only a CHANCE to make it as a good NHLer while Penner is already there.

My point in replying is that first of all, it is not just Tinordi that should be compared, but TWO prospects. Second, you have to multiply the percentage chance of one of them making it by the NUMBER OF YEARS we get to have them.

So let's say Tinordi and Firstpick each have a 25% chance of making it to Penner's level. Well, that's a weighted average of 3.5 years of good player versus 1.25 years of good player. Plus there is a good chance that some of the 3.5 years will come at a much cheaper salary to boot.

See what I mean now?

I think everyone gets that it's 2 prospects for Dustin Penner. My point was that your picking arbitrary numbers for how long these prospects will be guaranteed to play for Montreal. Making a second assumption that they will make the NHL at all. And then proceed to follow it up by assuming that Penner leaves next year. You picked and chose your data making your results very self serving.

Not to mention that the factors (Time we have Penner vs Time we have Tinordi and Prospect X) (Salary) that you used to come to your conclusion are really only one small part of a much larger equation.

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03-06-2011, 08:30 PM
  #195
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Originally Posted by habsjunkie2 View Post
Penner has much more value than AK. I love AK, but he isn't the consistent performer Dustin Penner is. I think AK would flourish elsewhere and likely wouldn't give him up, but Penner has much higher value around the league. A 240lb forward doesn't have to play overly physical, his size alone makes him difficult to handle.
The words 'consistent' and 'dustin penner' do not belong in the same thought process. Wow.

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03-06-2011, 08:34 PM
  #196
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Thank God.

It still boggles my mind how people absolutley hate Andrei Kostitsyn but were about to wet their pants at the thought of aquiring Penner. The man is just as inconsistent and enigmatic as Andrei. He's also very lazy and is not overtly physical. He uses his size to protect the puck, but he's not a bruiser.

Fans saw 6'4, 230 pounds and nothing else went in their head. I would have been pissed at that move, especially that Penner has another 4.25 million cap hit for another year. The last thing we need is to commit that amount of money to a player like that for another year.
I don't know if I would have given the rumoured package for him, but the player you describe is the kind of player the Habs need. Obviously not the lazy part, but there really isn't anyone out there, that is available, that can protect the puck like him down low. He also goes straight to the net when he has a chance.

I think the Habs would really benefit from a player like him.

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03-06-2011, 08:40 PM
  #197
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I think everyone gets that it's 2 prospects for Dustin Penner. My point was that your picking arbitrary numbers for how long these prospects will be guaranteed to play for Montreal. Making a second assumption that they will make the NHL at all. And then proceed to follow it up by assuming that Penner leaves next year. You picked and chose your data making your results very self serving.

Not to mention that the factors (Time we have Penner vs Time we have Tinordi and Prospect X) (Salary) that you used to come to your conclusion are really only one small part of a much larger equation.
And that's what I've been trying to say since the beginning.

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03-06-2011, 08:41 PM
  #198
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Originally Posted by angry pirate View Post
I think everyone gets that it's 2 prospects for Dustin Penner. My point was that your picking arbitrary numbers for how long these prospects will be guaranteed to play for Montreal. Making a second assumption that they will make the NHL at all. And then proceed to follow it up by assuming that Penner leaves next year. You picked and chose your data making your results very self serving.

Not to mention that the factors (Time we have Penner vs Time we have Tinordi and Prospect X) (Salary) that you used to come to your conclusion are really only one small part of a much larger equation.
I didn't make an assumption the two prospects will make the NHL. I postulated a good guess that as first round picks, their chances of making it as big as Penner are 25%. That means I think that there is a 75% chance each one won't.

But if one of them DOES make it, YES, we have their asset value for seven years. Of course the asset could be traded for another asset, but that doesn't really change anything.

As for Penner re-signing here after his contract, it is unknown, but the prospects might ALSO re-sign after they are UFA, so apples to apples, we can ignore that. Especially since we understand Penner prefers the West Coast.

So once again based on a 25% probability a prospect makes it medium-big, that is 3.5 years expected value of prospect versus 1.25 years of Penner, with Penner probably costing more per year too.

I would rather develop Pacioretty into our PF or acquire a 25 goal scorer on the UFA market, like Gionta, for about $5M times 5 years, instead of trading two potential big assets for only 1.25 years of Penner and then probably bye-bye. It's not like Penner is a bargain anyway.

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03-06-2011, 08:46 PM
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Thank God.

It still boggles my mind how people absolutley hate Andrei Kostitsyn but were about to wet their pants at the thought of aquiring Penner. The man is just as inconsistent and enigmatic as Andrei. He's also very lazy and is not overtly physical. He uses his size to protect the puck, but he's not a bruiser.

Fans saw 6'4, 230 pounds and nothing else went in their head. I would have been pissed at that move, especially that Penner has another 4.25 million cap hit for another year. The last thing we need is to commit that amount of money to a player like that for another year.
MTL fans wants every player drafted and traded.

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03-06-2011, 09:27 PM
  #200
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I don't know if I would have given the rumoured package for him, but the player you describe is the kind of player the Habs need. Obviously not the lazy part, but there really isn't anyone out there, that is available, that can protect the puck like him down low. He also goes straight to the net when he has a chance.

I think the Habs would really benefit from a player like him.
Exactly... god forbid if we ever get stuck for one year with a 4mil top 6 power forward...

...is Steve Sullivan available...

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