HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk
Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk Trade rumors, transactions, and free agent talk. Rumors must contain the word RUMOR in post title. Proposals must contain the word PROPOSAL in post title.

Can I trade you my first and a 2nd or 3rd to move up a couple spots please?

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
03-03-2011, 06:59 AM
  #1
guyzeur
Registered User
 
guyzeur's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Ottawa
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,063
vCash: 50
Can I trade you my first and a 2nd or 3rd to move up a couple spots please?

Posted this thread in the Sens forum, enjoy the discussion:


Here’s a summary of last 4 drafts (’07 to ’10) where picks only were traded to move teams up into the top 47 picks.

Teams will give their own 1st + a 2nd ( 50%) or a 3rd (43%) to move up a few spots between the 12 and 23.

GMs are not trading their top 10 picks very often - 7,5% as per last 4 drafts data (3 times in 40 picks).

Top 3 picks? 0%

In general: 1st round: 1-30, 2nd: 31-60, 3rd: 61-90

5-9
2008 - 7, 37 (’09) & 68 FOR #5
2008 - 9 & 40 FOR #7
2007 - 13, 44 & 87 (’08) FOR #9

12-16
2008 - 13 & 74 FOR #12
2008 - 17 & 28 FOR #12
2009 - 16 & 77 for 181 & #12
2008 - 18 + 70 FOR #15
2010 - 19 & 59 FOR #15
2009 - 26, 37 & 62 for #16, 77 & 92
2007 - 19 & 42 FOR #16

18-23
2007 - 24 + 70 FOR #18
2009 - 23 & 84 for #20
2007 - 30 & 36 FOR #21
2008 - 23 + 54 FOR #21
2009 - 26 & 37 for #21
2010 - 27 & 57 FOR #22 & 113
2008 - 24 + 73 FOR #23

28-35
2007 - 41 & 57 (‘08) FOR #28
2008 - 35 & 39 FOR #28
2009 - 32 & 75 FOR #29
2010 - 35 & 58 FOR #30
2010 - 35 &65 (Leafs ’11 2nd & 3rd) FOR #32
2007 - 38 & 69 FOR #35

38-46
2008 - 46 & 76 FOR #38
2008 - 84(’07) & 58 (’08) FOR #41 (’07)
2008 - 49 & 105 (’09) FOR #46
2010 - 49 & 109 for #47

Notes 1
2009 - Isles actually traded the 16, 26, 37, 62,77 FOR 12, 92 & 181
2007 - Caps actually traded the 28 (’07) FOR 84 (’07), 57 & 58 (’08)

Notes 2:

- Used the last 4 years because I think GMs would remember the tendancy of the most recent years as what is the cost of moving up

- This exercise does not take into consideration the strength of the draft.

guyzeur is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 08:09 AM
  #2
Mark Stuart*
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,380
vCash: 500
Depending on where the Leafs pick is I'd trade it for something like this (outside the top-4)

Mark Stuart* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 09:00 AM
  #3
Beerfish
Registered User
 
Beerfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,245
vCash: 500
Last year I created a draft point value spreadsheet based on past pick(s) for pick(s) trades. It is somewhat modelled after the NFL draft value sheet that has been around for some time. It allows you to at least get in the ball park when trying to see how far you can move up or down with pick for pick trades.

I will have to see if I have all of the pick for pick trades mentioned by the original poster as the more actual data the more tweaking to value can be done.

For example, lets take the Oilers they have the LA 1st round pick (17) and their own 2nd rounder (31)

17 = 1075
31 = 485
1560

The 11th = 1575
The 12th = 1475

Thus the approximate value of the oilers two picks would be in the 11, 12 range.

Beerfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 09:05 AM
  #4
guyzeur
Registered User
 
guyzeur's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Ottawa
Country: Canada
Posts: 3,063
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
Last year I created a draft point value spreadsheet based on past pick(s) for pick(s) trades. It is somewhat modelled after the NFL draft value sheet that has been around for some time. It allows you to at least get in the ball park when trying to see how far you can move up or down with pick for pick trades.

I will have to see if I have all of the pick for pick trades mentioned by the original poster as the more actual data the more tweaking to value can be done.

For example, lets take the Oilers they have the LA 1st round pick (17) and their own 2nd rounder (31)

17 = 1075
31 = 485
1560

The 11th = 1575
The 12th = 1475

Thus the approximate value of the oilers two picks would be in the 11, 12 range.
Value can be there but in the end, getting 3 bottom 6 forwards do not replace a top 3 forward

guyzeur is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 09:11 AM
  #5
thadd
Oil4Life
 
thadd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: China
Country: Canada
Posts: 15,589
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to thadd
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post

Thus the approximate value of the oilers two picks would be in the 11, 12 range.
If a team was offering such a deal around draft time... you'd think Edmonton would make a deal like that.

thadd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 10:13 AM
  #6
Beerfish
Registered User
 
Beerfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,245
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by thadd View Post
If a team was offering such a deal around draft time... you'd think Edmonton would make a deal like that.
That is always dependant on what player is on the board at the time the team with that pick picks. If there is a guy they really like they will probably take him. Also the value each year of picks is liquid in that there are differing plateaus of skill.

Beerfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 10:15 AM
  #7
Beerfish
Registered User
 
Beerfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,245
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by guyzeur View Post
Value can be there but in the end, getting 3 bottom 6 forwards do not replace a top 3 forward
Agreed, it all depends on the draft value each year. If teams feel they need more prospects or that the #12 pick is not massively better than moving down they might be willing to deal. If they really like a guy at that point they will undoubtedly take him and spurn all trade offers.

Beerfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 02:00 PM
  #8
Petro Points
Registered User
 
Petro Points's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 14,343
vCash: 885
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
Last year I created a draft point value spreadsheet based on past pick(s) for pick(s) trades. It is somewhat modelled after the NFL draft value sheet that has been around for some time. It allows you to at least get in the ball park when trying to see how far you can move up or down with pick for pick trades.

I will have to see if I have all of the pick for pick trades mentioned by the original poster as the more actual data the more tweaking to value can be done.

For example, lets take the Oilers they have the LA 1st round pick (17) and their own 2nd rounder (31)

17 = 1075
31 = 485
1560

The 11th = 1575
The 12th = 1475

Thus the approximate value of the oilers two picks would be in the 11, 12 range.
now do the same math and see if we can get Bos1st + Phi1st for TOR for LA's 1st

Petro Points is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 02:05 PM
  #9
Draftman
 
Draftman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Long Island, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 1,039
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
Last year I created a draft point value spreadsheet based on past pick(s) for pick(s) trades. It is somewhat modelled after the NFL draft value sheet that has been around for some time. It allows you to at least get in the ball park when trying to see how far you can move up or down with pick for pick trades.

I will have to see if I have all of the pick for pick trades mentioned by the original poster as the more actual data the more tweaking to value can be done.

For example, lets take the Oilers they have the LA 1st round pick (17) and their own 2nd rounder (31)

17 = 1075
31 = 485
1560

The 11th = 1575
The 12th = 1475

Thus the approximate value of the oilers two picks would be in the 11, 12 range.
Care to share this spreadsheet?

Please post or send me a PM. Thanks.

Draftman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 02:12 PM
  #10
FanHabtic
Registered User
 
FanHabtic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 6,984
vCash: 500
This draft will be a crap-shoot. There is no point in trading to move up. The draft order could be anything given how close the players are and how weak this draft is. The mid to late first round is completely unpredictable.

FanHabtic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 04:52 PM
  #11
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,652
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
That is always dependant on what player is on the board at the time the team with that pick picks. If there is a guy they really like they will probably take him. Also the value each year of picks is liquid in that there are differing plateaus of skill.
yeah, so your spreadsheet link no-longer works and i cant find it anywhere on my computer. Any chance you could re-upload it?

__________________
RIP Kev.
danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 05:23 PM
  #12
Beerfish
Registered User
 
Beerfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,245
vCash: 500
I'll be putting out my nhl mock draft creator sheet after the reg season if anyone wants the draft value sheet now fire me off a pm and I'll email it to you.

Beerfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-03-2011, 05:29 PM
  #13
Beerfish
Registered User
 
Beerfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,245
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by PenzOil View Post
now do the same math and see if we can get Bos1st + Phi1st for TOR for LA's 1st
Bos 28 + Phil 29 = 1130
LA 17 = 1275

Thus they are in the general ballpark.

Beerfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-07-2011, 05:31 PM
  #14
bernmeister
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 7,130
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by guyzeur View Post
Posted this thread in the Sens forum, enjoy the discussion:


Here’s a summary of last 4 drafts (’07 to ’10) where picks only were traded to move teams up into the top 47 picks.

Teams will give their own 1st + a 2nd ( 50%) or a 3rd (43%) to move up a few spots between the 12 and 23.

GMs are not trading their top 10 picks very often - 7,5% as per last 4 drafts data (3 times in 40 picks).

Top 3 picks? 0%

In general: 1st round: 1-30, 2nd: 31-60, 3rd: 61-90

5-9
2008 - 7, 37 (’09) & 68 FOR #5
2008 - 9 & 40 FOR #7
2007 - 13, 44 & 87 (’08) FOR #9

12-16
2008 - 13 & 74 FOR #12
2008 - 17 & 28 FOR #12
2009 - 16 & 77 for 181 & #12
2008 - 18 + 70 FOR #15
2010 - 19 & 59 FOR #15
2009 - 26, 37 & 62 for #16, 77 & 92
2007 - 19 & 42 FOR #16

18-23
2007 - 24 + 70 FOR #18
2009 - 23 & 84 for #20
2007 - 30 & 36 FOR #21
2008 - 23 + 54 FOR #21
2009 - 26 & 37 for #21
2010 - 27 & 57 FOR #22 & 113
2008 - 24 + 73 FOR #23

28-35
2007 - 41 & 57 (‘08) FOR #28
2008 - 35 & 39 FOR #28
2009 - 32 & 75 FOR #29
2010 - 35 & 58 FOR #30
2010 - 35 &65 (Leafs ’11 2nd & 3rd) FOR #32
2007 - 38 & 69 FOR #35

38-46
2008 - 46 & 76 FOR #38
2008 - 84(’07) & 58 (’08) FOR #41 (’07)
2008 - 49 & 105 (’09) FOR #46
2010 - 49 & 109 for #47

Notes 1
2009 - Isles actually traded the 16, 26, 37, 62,77 FOR 12, 92 & 181
2007 - Caps actually traded the 28 (’07) FOR 84 (’07), 57 & 58 (’08)

Notes 2:

- Used the last 4 years because I think GMs would remember the tendancy of the most recent years as what is the cost of moving up

- This exercise does not take into consideration the strength of the draft.
Thanks for the time to generate an interesting post...

bernmeister is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-07-2011, 05:45 PM
  #15
seanlinden
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 17,138
vCash: 500
I think there's something that far too often people forget.

1.Teams move up because the guy they really want is there, and they don't think he'll be there at their current pick.

2. Teams move down because they don't like anybody projected to be drafted in that range, and/or they think they can get their guy with the later pick.

seanlinden is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-07-2011, 06:06 PM
  #16
brevard*
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Country: United States
Posts: 1,891
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by FanHabtic View Post
This draft will be a crap-shoot. There is no point in trading to move up. The draft order could be anything given how close the players are and how weak this draft is. The mid to late first round is completely unpredictable.
Actually nothing could be farther from the truth. Teams have scouts (well except the Sabres), Team XX has a scout who really likes ""smith"" so the club sends another scout to cross reference and he too loves ""smith"" So the GM reviews all the tape and agrees.

Well the norm is guys kind of fit within a 3 to 5 player window of where they will get picked. However this year it seems there is no real difference between pick # 12 and pick number 28. If that is the group that ""smith"" is in and team XX is picking say 23rd they are probably looking to move. If the windows were normal they would have a better idea of either if or how much they they would have to move. Now they have to look to rise 10 spots because they just don't know..

brevard* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-07-2011, 06:15 PM
  #17
almostawake
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 2,982
vCash: 500
It's too bad more pick for pick trades don't happen in the NHL. There's a very good paper written by Cade Massey on the relative value of NFL draft picks. Basically with a large enough set of trades you can nail down a pretty definite 'price' for each pick.

I've tried to do it with hockey, alas, not enough data.

almostawake is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-07-2011, 06:25 PM
  #18
Mike Liut
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Country: United States
Posts: 5,045
vCash: 50
The Blues can offer #7,#37 and #42 (buffalo) to move up in rd 1. How far will this get them ? Maybe to #3 or #4 ?

Mike Liut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-07-2011, 06:36 PM
  #19
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,652
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Liut View Post
The Blues can offer #7,#37 and #42 (buffalo) to move up in rd 1. How far will this get them ? Maybe to #3 or #4 ?
i doubt the top 4 are interested.

even if the guy you want isnt one of lando/rnh/larsson/couts, what are the chances the guy you want is still available at 7?

The only team i could see successfully trading into the top 4 this year is the team holding #5, as if a team doesnt want one of the top 4, they can be guaranteed they get their guy at 5.

danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-07-2011, 06:56 PM
  #20
Mike Liut
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Country: United States
Posts: 5,045
vCash: 50
If you were at #3 or 4, you wouldn't take #7,37,42 then take Strome, Huberdeau or Murphy at #7 ? I almost think the Blues should keep the picks.

Mike Liut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-07-2011, 06:59 PM
  #21
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,652
vCash: 50
no, because there's a good chance that the guy you want is taken 5 or 6th, and your sitting there at 7th without one of the top 4, without the guy you wanted, and now you're picking a guy you didnt want or you trade back down again.


what i'm saying is that for someone to trade out of the top tier (in whatever year), you really have to either dislike the players in the top tier or love a guy in the next tier. In this case, trading down to 7th is too much of a risk. 6th is still a risk. The only way i see a team trading out of the top 4 is if they're getting #5.

danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-07-2011, 08:53 PM
  #22
thadd
Oil4Life
 
thadd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: China
Country: Canada
Posts: 15,589
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to thadd
Let's say you're targeting a team with the 26th-28th pick and there aren't any players around at that point that they need that bad.... they might go for it.

And Ottawa probably wouldn't make a deal like that unless there was a player available they were high on.

thadd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
03-08-2011, 10:44 PM
  #23
Jeffrey Lebowski
Luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
 
Jeffrey Lebowski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: North Side
Country: United States
Posts: 5,183
vCash: 500
Depends on what pick is being traded, and how close it is to the 1st and 2nd/3rd that's going to be traded. Also depends on who the team is eyeing and if they like anyone else who might go lower. I really don't mean to nitpick, as I consider this an interesting topic, but I think it needs a bit more context to really evaluate.

Jeffrey Lebowski is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:39 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.