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ATD 2011 Draft Thread VIII

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Old
03-12-2011, 05:57 PM
  #26
VanIslander
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Some of the defensive techniques Phil Housley used, as he describes it himself:

Quote:
"You just have to know what you're going to do before you get the puck. I don't care how good you are, you're going to run the puck if somebody is on you. If you can get there before he can and know what you're going to do with the puck before you get it, you try to get back there quicker, try to face up ice, and try to make the quick first pass out of the zone.

Instead of trying to wrestle a guy in front of the net, anticipate when the shot is coming and then use your energy to try and move him out of the way of the goalie. But there are a lot of guys out there I can't really move, so I'm certainly going to try and tie up their sticks so they don't get any tip-ins or rebounds
."
He describes some very useful defensive skills that he has used. Housley is NOT a PHYSICAL defenseman. But don't confuse that with lack of defensive play. He was good positionally. He played quarterback and safety on his high school football team and has said before he likes to anticipate the play and react early. That is one of his finest skills at both ends of the ice.


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03-12-2011, 06:00 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
ATD canon says that you would get a combination of the two Gonchars. Gonchar's LOH bio says his defense started to turn around in 02-03 so that would give him about 6 years compared to about 7 years when he wasn't as good, so you'd get about an average of the two with a slight hint to wards older Gonchar.
Gonchar was bad in 05/06. He had really hard tine adjusting to the post-lockout NHL, the fact that he the team around him was really crappy didn't help either, but he was really bad that season. He was decent/good next season and really good in 07/08, but he wasn't the same after all his injuries. I count 2 season of good defence from him.

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Can somebody take a list?
Any listtakers?


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Old
03-12-2011, 06:02 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
WTF is Defensive Point Share?
http://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html

A poster named 'reckoning' over on the History board discusses it.

Housley doesn't hit, but he is positionally sound. Yes, he takes risks when trailing, pinching and surging with the puck, but others compensate and cover.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:02 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
ATD canon says that you would get a combination of the two Gonchars. Gonchar's LOH bio says his defense started to turn around in 02-03 so that would give him about 6 years compared to about 7 years when he wasn't as good, so you'd get about an average of the two with a slight hint to wards older Gonchar.
I don't agree with Legends of Hockey because my eyes told me that Gonchar didn't get good defensively until about 2007. And I've seen at least 75% of the Pens games since '05. He may have been improving defensively through that time, but he wasn't extremely reliable (which he did get to eventually) in his own zone until around 07 in my mind.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:03 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sabre View Post
Some of the defensive techniques Phil Housley used, as he describes it himself:


He describes some very useful defensive skills that he has used. Housley is NOT a PHYSICAL defenseman. But don't confuse that with lack of defensive play. He was good positionally. He played quarterback and safety on his high school football team and has said before he likes to anticipate the play and react early. That is one of his finest skills at both ends of the ice.
Housley was not good positionally, at least not at the NHL level. I guess he was better positionally than he was at handling physical play, though.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:05 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
That was really my only point of reference. Pelletier suggested he had "weaknesses in his own zone", and I tend to trust him more than anyone. Combined with the fact that there isn't much information about him that's been brought up, I'd take Gonchar. Gonchar nor Boyle are relevant in terms of leadership in an ATD context. It was just ridiculous to suggest Boyle was a better leader than Gonchar.
This I can agree with. Neither are going to be leaders in this context so who cares which one has more leadership?

However I will say this, Gonchar's A was more in title only as being their #1 DMan. The only really big thing he did as far as leadership for the Pens was helping out Malkin when he came over. I can say very confidently if it wasnt for Gonchar, Malkin would not have been the player he was/is.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:07 PM
  #32
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The Niagara City Blue select LW/D Tommy Anderson

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:07 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Housley was not good positionally, at least not at the NHL level.
You are wrong (two can play the bald opinion asserting game). The Housley I remember was quick and hard working, no Coffey-ing around. I have shown stats (defensive point share) and an explanation from Housley's own lips of the defensive tactics he deployed (not hitting, instead a number of positional considerations). It would be nice if you used more than just your own opinion in reply.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:09 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sabre View Post
You are wrong (two can play the bald opinion asserting game). The Housley I remember was quick and hard working, no Coffey-ing around. I have shown stats (defensive point share) and an explanation from Housley's own lips of the defensive tactics he deployed (not hitting, instead a number of positional considerations). It would be nice if you used more than just your own opinion in reply.
Housley saying he did these things doesn't necessarily mean he actually did them on the ice. Sure he was much more of a positional guy in his own zone, but does that mean he was good?

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:12 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sabre View Post
You are wrong (two can play the bald opinion asserting game). The Housley I remember was quick and hard working, no Coffey-ing around. I have shown stats (defensive point share) and an explanation from Housley's own lips of the defensive tactics he deployed (not hitting, instead a number of positional considerations). It would be nice if you used more than just your own opinion in reply.
Prime Coffey was a lot better in his own zone than Phil Housley. Coffey raised his defensive game in meaningful games.

Defensive point share is a worthless junk stat that measure absolutely nothing. I'll let overpass or 70s explain the flaws if they care to.

As I already said, Housley ranks dead last among defensemen who played over the threshold number of games in penalty kill minutes.

More evidence - in an era when writers looked primarily at stats, Housley was a 2nd Team All Star once. That's it.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:13 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sabre View Post
Let's look at DEFENSIVE POINT SHARE career stats:

22nd Phil Housley

64th Sergei Gonchar


Housley keeps very good company. Is he really the one exception? because the others are certainly defensively skilled. Housley is underrated around here.
You use them because it's good for you, but you can explain concisely why defensive point shares are a good measure for defensive ability?

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Originally Posted by Dwight View Post
What are defensive point shares?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
WTF is Defensive Point Share?

I'm pretty certain that Housley ranks dead last in PK time among post-expansion defensemen who played over the threshold of games.
New hockeyreference.com thing to try to measure defensive and offensive ability. It uses a bunch of things that may not be really good to use, including a lot of team stats, +/-, and games played. It doesn't seem particularly good to me, but maybe someone can translate it into english. Seems to also rather favour defenseman over forwards (perhaps it should).

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:14 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
How does he have more leadership? Boyle wasn't a captain or an assistant on his Tampa cup winning team, and has been an assistant captain for a grand total of 2 years. Gonchar was an assistant for the Penguins for 5 years, including when they won the cup.
I just won't take the time to find the quotes , but there are somewhere out there with lots of Tampa Bay players saying he was a true leader , and especially a couple of Sharks players or journalists that he was truly brinign a winning attitude in the Sharks lockerroom.Didn't worked yet but it doesn't mean it's not true.Boyle is a good leader I'm 95% sure of that with all I've heard.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:15 PM
  #38
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I never said Housley killed penalties. That was not his role. The discussion was about comparing Gonchar to other players, one of them Housley. I brought up defensive point share, to which you TDMM asked wtf it is. I then linked to an explanation and then you called the stat garbage and said I should ask other posters as to why. I'll leave the discussion at that for now.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:18 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
That was really my only point of reference. Pelletier suggested he had "weaknesses in his own zone", and I tend to trust him more than anyone. Combined with the fact that there isn't much information about him that's been brought up, I'd take Gonchar. Gonchar nor Boyle are relevant in terms of leadership in an ATD context. It was just ridiculous to suggest Boyle was a better leader than Gonchar.
Completely disagree, the fact they are some of the greatest leaders of all-time in some teams doesn't mean the guys that were leaders to a lesser degree doesn't count in a lockerrom spirit , and it was far from ridiculous on my part.Anyway since I'm too lazy to debate the ''leadership'' role of Gonchar & Boyle and researching the quote , feel free to say I'm ridiculous since I can't back my statements.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:19 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReenMachine View Post
I just won't take the time to find the quotes , but there are somewhere out there with lots of Tampa Bay players saying he was a true leader , and especially a couple of Sharks players or journalists that he was truly brinign a winning attitude in the Sharks lockerroom.Didn't worked yet but it doesn't mean it's not true.Boyle is a good leader I'm 95% sure of that with all I've heard.
Boyle definitely had a rep as a guy who helped his team win by being present in the lineup. I remember the reports from San Jose when they were on their way to the President's Trophy too. It's one reason I drafted him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sabre View Post
I never said Housley killed penalties. That was not his role. The discussion was about comparing Gonchar to other players, one of them Housley. I brought up defensive point share, to which you TDMM asked wtf it is. I then linked to an explanation and then you called the stat garbage and said I should ask other posters as to why. I'll leave the discussion at that for now.
I had a feeling "defensive point share" was one of those new h-r constructions that has already been heavily criticized. Then I skimmed how they came up with it before calling it worthless.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:22 PM
  #41
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Sometimes you can almost just see it in their way of playing , their face when things go wrong and how pissed they looked in interview when they lost.Sure this is to take with a grain of salt but you know I would feel Boyle wouldn't give up as quick as Gonchar on my team if things go wrong.Sometimes it's as simple as that.But I did read many quotes about Boyle saying he was a true winner.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:25 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sabre View Post
Let's look at DEFENSIVE POINT SHARE career stats:

22nd Phil Housley

64th Sergei Gonchar


Housley keeps very good company. Is he really the one exception? because the others are certainly defensively skilled. Housley is underrated around here.
For those who aren't familiar with Point Shares, it's a new single-number statistical metric that hockey-reference rolled out recently. There's a thread on the HOH forum discussing it.

Short version of this post: Point Shares, and especially Defensive Point Shares, are statistical smoke.

As far as I can tell, defensive point shares for Housley and other defencemen of his era are calculated by 1. Dividing up team defensive performance among all players, and 2. Giving players positive or negative adjustments based on their plus-minus.

In my opinion this does not work at all. There are two obvious errors. First, plus-minus is at least as much an offensive stat as a defensive stat. Housley was a relatively high-scoring defenceman at even strength. Point Shares is double counting that value. Second, as far as I can tell Point Shares does not distinguish between power play, even strength, and shorthanded performance. Housley spent very little time on the penalty kill. Therefore the metric is giving him credit for team defensive performance to which he did not contribute.

Also, a large part of a defenceman's value is the quality of competition he faces. I doubt Housley was being matched up against the best players. But I'll give Point Shares a pass on that. It's very difficult to measure this statistically and we don't have the data for the vast majority of NHL history.

Defensive Point Shares are poorly designed. If the list of leaders looks like a list of good defensive players, it's because long-career defencemen on good defensive teams tend to be good defensively. Housley was an exception, IMO.

The person who runs hockey-reference.com and implemented this stat, Justin Kubatko, is not a hockey guy. He runs some of the sports-reference.com family of sites. He mentions that it is based on work done by Tom Awad, Iain Fyffe, and Alan Ryder, who are leading hockey stats guys. But I think his lack of subject matter knowledge has caused some design errors, and the Point Shares stat needs more work.

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03-12-2011, 06:28 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
For those who aren't familiar with Point Shares, it's a new single-number statistical metric that hockey-reference rolled out recently. There's a thread on the HOH forum discussing it.

Short version of this post: Point Shares, and especially Defensive Point Shares, are statistical smoke.

As far as I can tell, defensive point shares for Housley and other defencemen of his era are calculated by 1. Dividing up team defensive performance among all players, and 2. Giving players positive or negative adjustments based on their plus-minus.

In my opinion this does not work at all. There are two obvious errors. First, plus-minus is at least as much an offensive stat as a defensive stat. Housley was a relatively high-scoring defenceman at even strength. Point Shares is double counting that value. Second, as far as I can tell Point Shares does not distinguish between power play, even strength, and shorthanded performance. Housley spent very little time on the penalty kill. Therefore the metric is giving him credit for team defensive performance to which he did not contribute.

Also, a large part of a defenceman's value is the quality of competition he faces. I doubt Housley was being matched up against the best players. But I'll give Point Shares a pass on that. It's very difficult to measure this statistically and we don't have the data for the vast majority of NHL history.

Defensive Point Shares are poorly designed. If the list of leaders looks like a list of good defensive players, it's because long-career defencemen on good defensive teams tend to be good defensively. Housley was an exception, IMO.

The person who runs hockey-reference.com and implemented this stat, Justin Kubatko, is not a hockey guy. He runs some of the sports-reference.com family of sites. He mentions that it is based on work done by Tom Awad, Iain Fyffe, and Alan Ryder, who are leading hockey stats guys. But I think his lack of subject matter knowledge has caused some design errors, and the Point Shares stat needs more work.
And here I was just going to say look no further than #17 on this list for why this list sucks. At least overpass gave us actual reasoning lol

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:30 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by ReenMachine View Post
Dan Boyle over Gonchar any day of the week.

He also has a lot more leadership.
I'll take the Gonchar of 2002-2009 over Boyle, any day.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:31 PM
  #45
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- For Lloyd Cook, we're pretty much waiting for Nalyd's biography on him
Should have it up in a few days. Info is more rare than Duncan. One problem is that Vancouver used a system that has never been used since. Largely because it requires a rare mix of rare talents.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:32 PM
  #46
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As I already said, Housley ranks dead last among defensemen who played over the threshold number of games in penalty kill minutes.
Yep. Defencemen who played at least 800 games since 1968, sorted by % of the penalty kill they played. (Estimated by player PGA/team PGA)

Least penalties killed, long-career defencemen
Rk Player Sum of GP PK%
1 Phil Housley 1495 11%
2 Sandis Ozolinsh 875 19%
3 Sergei Gonchar 991 21%
4 Undrafted 1022 22%
5 Undrafted 969 23%
6 Undrafted 899 24%
7 Undrafted 1047 25%
8 Ron Greschner 982 25%
9 Undrafted 926 25%
10 Undrafted 1291 25%
11 Undrafted 1056 27%
12 Undrafted 838 27%
13 Undrafted 952 28%
14 Paul Coffey 1409 28%
15 Undrafted 1028 28%
16 Undrafted 1007 29%
17 Undrafted 1098 29%
18 Undrafted 1149 29%
19 Undrafted 1289 31%
20 Gary Suter 1145 31%

Boyle and Rafalski don't meet the GP cutoff. Boyle so far is at 14%, Rafalski at 23%.

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:35 PM
  #47
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I'm not surprised Boyle is low, but I'm actually kind of surprised he's that low, to be honest.

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03-12-2011, 06:37 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
And here I was just going to say look no further than #17 on this list for why this list sucks. At least overpass gave us actual reasoning lol
Larry Murphy at #7 is a big miss as well, IMO. Not that he was bad, but...

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Old
03-12-2011, 06:38 PM
  #49
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Housley played for 21 years, nearly twice as long. So that 11% vs. Gonchar's 21% is a misleading gap. It's narrower than that if at all. Can you calculate Housley's first 10 seasons?

More broadly: Why even talk about the defensive play of a Coffey, Housley or Gonchar? They are offensive defensemen and every great team can handle one of those, having others compensate defensively for them.

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03-12-2011, 06:38 PM
  #50
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Quote:
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Larry Murphy at #7 is a big miss as well, IMO. Not that he was bad, but...
My favorite part:
Quote:
22. Phil Housley 73.91
25. Rod Langway* 71.05

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