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Old
03-16-2011, 02:50 AM
  #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
http://wgr550.com/topic/play_window....udioId=5212347
Starts at about 1:50-2:00

"We had looked at the game before where they had nine power plays and said 'Don't be hitting anybody'"

Yayyyy!
That's obviously sarcasm, as well as a dig against Carolina. Keep digging.


Anyway, the team was on their 10th game in 14 nights, and it showed. The upcoming break is going to be huge for the team, in paticular a guy like Boyes, who's first full day in town was yesterday (and had also just come off of a decent sized roadie with St. Louis).

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03-16-2011, 05:12 AM
  #77
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If you think they are tired now, starting Saturday they play 12 games in 22 nights with 10 back to backs. Playoffs??? I don't think so.

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03-16-2011, 06:26 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Quickdraw View Post
This is the third or fourth time since we have gotten Montador that he has lost an edge and risked giving up a goal. Is he a crappy skater or is the Sabres equipment manager stupid?

Look here, Montador falls like an idiot versus the Canes last year to give up a goal in OT (5:50 mark):

Not sure what the problem was last night but Myers and Montador both couldn't stay on their feet. The puck was bouncing all over the place, probably crappy ice conditions. The Canes didn't care because all they did was try to play a boring ass game and get out with the 2 points. They got the job done but what a snooze-fest. I'm pretty sure Cam Ward set the record for most times freezing the puck in a game.

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03-16-2011, 06:32 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by barcs View Post
we now have a 69.1% chance of making the playoffs. A Leafs win tomorrow night is HUGE.
That site is so ****ing stupid.

We're up by 2 points in the playoff chase. We lose the next game to Carolina and it becomes who gets more points in their last 11? Lets not forget to mention that every other team behind us that we're fighting against (except leafs) have a game vs us.

I'd say the odds are that we might not make the playoffs. Its very possible that we do, but I'd say equally as possible that we don't. 70% is ********.

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03-16-2011, 07:25 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by MillerFan1 View Post
I'd say the odds are that we might not make the playoffs. Its very possible that we do, but I'd say equally as possible that we don't. 70% is ********.
70% is at least an objective number based on unbiased criteria. It's not perfect, but it's at least based on facts.

Your opinions is exactly that. An opinion. And it looks like you're saying they have about a 50% chance of making the playoffs, but 70% is somehow ********? I don't see how 20% makes the difference between an acceptable opinion and complete ********.

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03-16-2011, 07:54 AM
  #81
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Originally Posted by jlr View Post
70% is at least an objective number based on unbiased criteria. It's not perfect, but it's at least based on facts.

Your opinions is exactly that. An opinion. And it looks like you're saying they have about a 50% chance of making the playoffs, but 70% is somehow ********? I don't see how 20% makes the difference between an acceptable opinion and complete ********.
Not to mention the fact that we are IN the playoffs right now. We are AHEAD of these teams that we're playing, thus we should WIN more than LOSE. How does that equate to 50% chance to make the playoffs?

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03-16-2011, 08:06 AM
  #82
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Alrght...I've settled down after this game and can finally make a semi-coherent/intelligent post.

The Good:
--Miller was fantastic.
--Myers was dominant.
--Vanek was the most dangerous forward on the ice.
--Mancari/Stafford for not taking *****.

The Bad:
--McCormick-Nieds-Grier. Looked slow and were anti-offense. It showed, as Lindy planted them on the bench for most of the game.
--Missed opportunities. We missed the net on the majority of decent chances we got, whether it was slappers from the point or Vanek missing on a semi-break.
--You can't win with 0 goals. Ever. I googled it.

The Ugly:
--Like everything involving that sorry excuse for a franchise, the 'Canes lucked out. Neither team was great, but this game came down to them getting a bounce that we didn't. There was nothing we could do on the goal they scored, and we had no chance like that.
--The refs, especially during the Gerbe sequence. I'd love to hear the rationale there. Gerbe gets punched in the face by Joslin RIGHT IN FRONT OF THE REF, doesn't retaliate but doesn't get a call. Then, Gerbe gets crosschecked from behind, and they call him for diving?!?!?! I hate this *****ing league.
--That troll formerly known as Brindy.

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Old
03-16-2011, 08:18 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Ron Barr View Post
The season isn't over yet.
Yeah which means we can still make it too, negative nancy.

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Old
03-16-2011, 08:22 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by SabresOfBuffalo View Post
Long time lurker (3+ years) deciding to start posting on here. With that said, this may have been the most frustrating game to watch all season partly due to performance and partly due to the game being broadcast on Versus. I thought Myers, Miller, and Ennis all played a solid game while the rest of the team has yet to show up. The effort just wasn't there and I can't imagine the same roster we witnessed tonight doing anything in the playoffs, that is assuming we even make it.

Also, whoever coaches the powerplay for this team needs to be relieved of his job immediately.
This is also the same team that within the past two weeks has played great road games and beat two of the best teams in the East in Philly and Boston. Let's not forget that fact.

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03-16-2011, 08:39 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlr View Post
70% is at least an objective number based on unbiased criteria. It's not perfect, but it's at least based on facts.

Your opinions is exactly that. An opinion. And it looks like you're saying they have about a 50% chance of making the playoffs, but 70% is somehow ********? I don't see how 20% makes the difference between an acceptable opinion and complete ********.
Idk I just look at 70% chance and think that's a pretty damn good chance to make it. I think we have an okay chance to make it... but not a pretty good chance.

I don't know I'm not even saying 50/50. It could happen and it could not. A lot of things should be taken into consideration when making that opinion. I just see and hear people spouting off these numbers making it sound like we have a outstanding chance to make the playoffs.

Did those figures take into effect that we have 12 games in 22 days starting on Saturday? Did it take into effect that 7 of those 12 games are at home where we have a losing record? Carolina still has 8 games at home where they are 18-11-4.

I'm not trying to nit pick, but seeing people throw around a 70% chance of making the playoffs stat is a bit premature IMO.

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03-16-2011, 09:00 AM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
That's obviously sarcasm, as well as a dig against Carolina. Keep digging.


Anyway, the team was on their 10th game in 14 nights, and it showed. The upcoming break is going to be huge for the team, in paticular a guy like Boyes, who's first full day in town was yesterday (and had also just come off of a decent sized roadie with St. Louis).
He commented in his post-game presser about how "some of their guys go down easy" so he's already working the officiating side of things for their finale. I expect it will come up before the game too, probably in Ruff's game day skate press huddle.

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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
Because we're #2 in terms of local TV ratings, behind only the Pittsburgh Penguins, and the Buffalo market always draws well nationally (see the gold medal game last year; #1 in terms of ratings in the United States).
Precisely. They put us on because we are a good ratings draw. We watch and we watch more than just the Sabres. What was the quote from a few years ago? Paraphrasing a TV exec from VS. - "Buffalo is a force of nature".

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Old
03-16-2011, 09:29 AM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MillerFan1 View Post
Idk I just look at 70% chance and think that's a pretty damn good chance to make it. I think we have an okay chance to make it... but not a pretty good chance.

I don't know I'm not even saying 50/50. It could happen and it could not. A lot of things should be taken into consideration when making that opinion. I just see and hear people spouting off these numbers making it sound like we have a outstanding chance to make the playoffs.

Did those figures take into effect that we have 12 games in 22 days starting on Saturday? Did it take into effect that 7 of those 12 games are at home where we have a losing record? Carolina still has 8 games at home where they are 18-11-4.

I'm not trying to nit pick, but seeing people throw around a 70% chance of making the playoffs stat is a bit premature IMO.
The number is based on statistical simulations. In those simulations, the Sabres make the playoffs 70% of the time given the current standings. Of course, I don't think it takes things like fatigue or injury into account, but it's at least a pretty decent guess.

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Old
03-16-2011, 09:38 AM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
That's obviously sarcasm, as well as a dig against Carolina. Keep digging.


Anyway, the team was on their 10th game in 14 nights, and it showed. The upcoming break is going to be huge for the team, in paticular a guy like Boyes, who's first full day in town was yesterday (and had also just come off of a decent sized roadie with St. Louis).
Good thoughts.

And to look at the season practically, the Sabres need to catch the Rangers again. Because I think the Devils are getting in. So it's 7th or nothing.

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Old
03-16-2011, 10:12 AM
  #89
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I wanted to come in here to say this, Nathan Gerbe is badass. Seriously, I love that guy. Is he a cult hero around Buffalo yet? If not he should be, what a tenacious little *******.

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03-16-2011, 10:14 AM
  #90
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I wanted to come in here to say this, Nathan Gerbe is badass. Seriously, I love that guy. Is he a cult hero around Buffalo yet? If not he should be, what a tenacious little *******.
He was one of the handful of guys who had legs last night and he was doing what he could to agitate and skate.

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Old
03-16-2011, 11:27 AM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
That's obviously sarcasm, as well as a dig against Carolina. Keep digging.


Anyway, the team was on their 10th game in 14 nights, and it showed. The upcoming break is going to be huge for the team, in paticular a guy like Boyes, who's first full day in town was yesterday (and had also just come off of a decent sized roadie with St. Louis).
Well duh. It's obviously not an entirely serious comment, but considering how the team played last night it's pretty obvious Ruff wasn't exactly encouraging them to put Hurricanes through a wall.

Also, I really want to hear Ruff's justification for benching Butler. Morrisonn was on the ice for all three relevant Ottawa goals and most if not all of Butler's trips to the box came from playing a physical game. If Weber took those same penalties, we'd be seeing everyone talking about how games like that come with the territory.

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Old
03-16-2011, 11:30 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Well duh. It's obviously not an entirely serious comment, but considering how the team played last night it's pretty obvious Ruff wasn't exactly encouraging them to put Hurricanes through a wall.

Also, I really want to hear Ruff's justification for benching Butler. Morrisonn was on the ice for all three relevant Ottawa goals and most if not all of Butler's trips to the box came from playing a physical game. If Weber took those same penalties, we'd be seeing everyone talking about how games like that come with the territory.
Because if Butler played we would have won.


I do love how you can't let go of the fact that you actually think Ruff told them not to hit.

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Old
03-16-2011, 11:46 AM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quickdraw View Post
Montador looked horrible. He should go back to riding the bench to think about it for awhile.
Especially that one shift he had in the 3rd, where he blew a tire at center ice; coughed up the puck; and proceeded to take the boarding penalty.

He's been generally consistent over the season and better than not on most nights but his play in the past few games does resemble some of the meltdowns he had last season during the second half.

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Old
03-16-2011, 11:53 AM
  #94
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Originally Posted by jlr View Post
70% is at least an objective number based on unbiased criteria. It's not perfect, but it's at least based on facts.

Your opinions is exactly that. An opinion. And it looks like you're saying they have about a 50% chance of making the playoffs, but 70% is somehow ********? I don't see how 20% makes the difference between an acceptable opinion and complete ********.
I absolutely love stats but that website (if its the one I'm thinking of) is utterly useless at predicting future outcomes.

It uses a model that can't account for many factors that impact a team's success or failure.

Primarily the human element. Things like.....

-trades (how that player reacts to being traded + how the rest of the team reacts to that new player, does he develop chemistry)
-injuries (who gets hurt, how long are the out, are they the same when they return, etc.)
-how call ups play filling in for injuries
-a player having a tough season finally getting his game on track or a player having a good season falling apart late in the year.
-a rookie that was playing well suddenly hitting the wall as many rookies do or the reverse a rookie finally getting it
-how a team mentally reacts to the playoff race tightening
-how fatigue impacts players during the grind of the stretch run.
-a coach finally getting some line combos that work or having line combos that were working stop clicking and not being able to get that back.
-coach decides to change the system he was using and how the team reacts to it.

I could go on.



That site just reacts to what happens and using the past spits out guesses on the future. It in no way saw our current run happening. In fact, quite the opposite, when Roy went down that site essentially wrote us off. I use that to make my point because what we have done during this time frame is not overly amazing. Nor is it happening because of the play of 1 or 2 players that are playing on a level off the charts. So its not as if our current run into a playoff spot is something amazing to behold. But according to that website it is.


I thought it was ridiculous in November/December when you and others used that site as a reason to have a firesale and tank the season. Since it said we had a very small percentage chance (at one point single digits) of making the playoffs. And I think its ridiculous now for anyone to think we have a 70% chance of making the playoffs due to that sites predictions. We could start to struggle again for a variety of reasons and in short order be on the outside looking in. But accrording to that site a few games ago that was highly unlikely.


Last edited by joshjull: 03-16-2011 at 12:28 PM.
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Old
03-16-2011, 12:03 PM
  #95
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Because if Butler played we would have won.


I do love how you can't let go of the fact that you actually think Ruff told them not to hit.
I mean, playing Butler keeps Myers with a partner he's shown signs of chemistry with and allows us to play our two hottest puckmovers on separate pairings when they've been better. Maybe it makes a difference, maybe they still get shut out, but I don't see how Butler deserved to ride the pine.

I don't actually think Ruff told them to not hit anybodyever, but I do think it's another instance of Ruff not putting a premium on physicality.

And I posted my thoughts on the presser, the quote for reference right before I went to bed with a sarcastic "yay" and responded to someone who quoted me. I don't see where that crosses the line between regular posting on a subject and "not letting go."

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03-16-2011, 12:05 PM
  #96
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He commented in his post-game presser about how "some of their guys go down easy" so he's already working the officiating side of things for their finale. I expect it will come up before the game too, probably in Ruff's game day skate press huddle.
Skinner appears to be a player of that ilk.

I hesitate to repost this here, but I found this stat shocking when I saw it on the main board a week or two ago (note, I never doubled checked the accuracy):

Quote:

Year on year, here is how Carolina ranks/ranked league-wide in most power play chances:

10-11: 1st (currently)
09-10: 1st
08-09: 1st (tied)
07-08: 1st
06-07: 2nd
05-06: 3rd
03-04: 4th
02-03: 1st
01-02: 1st
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=887096

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Old
03-16-2011, 12:07 PM
  #97
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Especially that one shift he had in the 3rd, where he blew a tire at center ice; coughed up the puck; and proceeded to take the boarding penalty.

He's been generally consistent over the season and better than not on most nights but his play in the past few games does resemble some of the meltdowns he had last season during the second half.
He hasn't seemed the same since his injury. Whether or not thats why he is struggling I have no idea.

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03-16-2011, 12:31 PM
  #98
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I absolutely love stats but that website (if its the one I'm thinking of) is utterly useless at predicting future outcomes.
Is it perfect? No. Obviously, it doesn't predict the future - no model can. But what it does do is give you a pretty good idea of what's likely to happen - based on historical data. I think that's relavent, and useful information.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
That site just reacts to what happens and using the past spits out guesses on the future. It in no way saw our current run happening. In fact, quite the opposite, when Roy went down that site essentially wrote us off.
Actually, I think it wrote us off because we flat out sucked, and teams that suck as bad as we did at that point in the season don't usually turn things around and make the playoffs. I could be wrong, but I think they use an extremely simple model that either says we win 50% of our remaining games, or a certain percentage of them based on previous games. I don't think it even attempts to factor in things like injuries, fatigue, etc.

And we don't know that things like that even affect the numbers predictably. We've played better without Roy, the Pens were fine without Crosby until Malkin went down, etc.. So adding in more variables may actually make the percentages less accurate.


Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
TI thought it was ridiculous in November/December when you and others used that site as a reason to have a firesale and tank the season. Since it said we had a very small percentage chance (at one point single digits) of making the playoffs. And I think its ridiculous now for anyone to think we have a 70% chance of making the playoffs due to that sites predictions. We could start to struggle again for a variety of reasons and in short order be on the outside looking in. But accrording to that site a few games ago that was highly unlikely.
I don't want a firesale, and never did. But I think it's downright delusional to think this team is anywhere near the contender they need to be, and to hold onto expiring contracts for players who aren't in our future plans, instead of moving them for things that will actually have value after July 1. I don't think moving out dead weight like Connolly, Rivet (now gone), Lalime (now superglued to the bench), Grier, etc. would have substantially changed our playoff chances. If we manage to get in, then great, it will be good for a lot of the young guys to get the experience. But I'm not willing to sacrifice much, if anything, in the way of future assets to get there this year.

I don't think you can ever predict something as complicated as hockey using any statistical model. But when you have to make decisions - like what to do with expiring UFAs - I think it's useful to know what the past results say about your teams chances. Obviously, knowing your roster, how they play and practice, etc ,is going to be more valuable than raw numbers, but I don't think the historical data is worthless.

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03-16-2011, 12:36 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by jlr View Post
Is it perfect? No. Obviously, it doesn't predict the future - no model can. But what it does do is give you a pretty good idea of what's likely to happen - based on historical data. I think that's relavent, and useful information.



Actually, I think it wrote us off because we flat out sucked, and teams that suck as bad as we did at that point in the season don't usually turn things around and make the playoffs. I could be wrong, but I think they use an extremely simple model that either says we win 50% of our remaining games, or a certain percentage of them based on previous games. I don't think it even attempts to factor in things like injuries, fatigue, etc.

And we don't know that things like that even affect the numbers predictably. We've played better without Roy, the Pens were fine without Crosby until Malkin went down, etc.. So adding in more variables may actually make the percentages less accurate.




I don't want a firesale, and never did. But I think it's downright delusional to think this team is anywhere near the contender they need to be, and to hold onto expiring contracts for players who aren't in our future plans, instead of moving them for things that will actually have value after July 1. I don't think moving out dead weight like Connolly, Rivet (now gone), Lalime (now superglued to the bench), Grier, etc. would have substantially changed our playoff chances. If we manage to get in, then great, it will be good for a lot of the young guys to get the experience. But I'm not willing to sacrifice much, if anything, in the way of future assets to get there this year.

I don't think you can ever predict something as complicated as hockey using any statistical model. But when you have to make decisions - like what to do with expiring UFAs - I think it's useful to know what the past results say about your teams chances. Obviously, knowing your roster, how they play and practice, etc ,is going to be more valuable than raw numbers, but I don't think the historical data is worthless.
Agree with this down the line. This is as accurate as a simulation can be and completely disregarding it is pretty egregious. Sure we could start to struggle but that is accounted for in some of the simulations too. Plus they do adjust the weighted probabilities based on games that have happened and current teams' runs. Perhaps it's because I'm a double mathematics and statistics major who is focused in statistics that I can see the validity of such things, but from my experience this is an extremely well done simulation that certainly has value.

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03-16-2011, 12:38 PM
  #100
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I don't want a firesale, and never did. But I think it's downright delusional to think this team is anywhere near the contender they need to be, and to hold onto expiring contracts for players who aren't in our future plans, instead of moving them for things that will actually have value after July 1. I don't think moving out dead weight like Connolly, Rivet (now gone), Lalime (now superglued to the bench), Grier, etc. would have substantially changed our playoff chances. If we manage to get in, then great, it will be good for a lot of the young guys to get the experience. But I'm not willing to sacrifice much, if anything, in the way of future assets to get there this year.
I would agree with you but I think Bryan Murray singlehandedly destroyed the trade market for immanent UFA's. Fisher for a 1st and Kelly for a 2nd (both signed beyond this year) is quite a markdown from last year's prices. Back then our 2nd could only get us UFA to be Torres. This year it got us Boyes whose signed next year too.

On the flip side, I think the value for Connolly was at best a 3rd rounder and Grier was likely closer to a 5th or 6th. That some pretty crappy return for a team in the thick of a playoff race, hence both stayed put.

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