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03-16-2011, 12:23 PM
  #126
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Because the price per barrel, what we used to be able to watch and rely on for determining gasoline prices was put to death in America from 2002 through 2008 and now again during your current administration.

Price per barrel goes up and down but gasoline prices only go up with one minor exception over the past 8 years.

First it was the "war" and since it has been an unending diarrheal cramp and spasm with every uprising, windy day and catastrophe that has been blamed for the need to raise oil prices. I would rather they just give us all the finger and tell us how much they feel like bending us over on any given day.

At least then we can prepare for the intrusion.

But then asking a largely corrupt system to be honest with you on anything for any reason is like asking a crackhead if you can borrow a couple hundred bucks, even if they had it you would be the last person on earth to get it.

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03-16-2011, 12:23 PM
  #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by driller1 View Post
I suppose its convenient to blame anyone (oil companies / government) for "managing" prices, but truth of the matter is the US has no one to blame but itself. The US consumes about 20 million barrels of crude per day, yet only produces ~5 million barrels / day. This makes the US vulnerable to price fluctuations. The world consumes ~80 million barrels / day and has capacity to pump ~84 million barrels. Saudi holds virtually all of the world's spare capacity. If Americans drove fewer SUVs or used natural gas to fuel vehicles (thus driving demand down for crude oil), crude prices wouldn't be so high. Its that simple.
How is what you and I are saying any different?

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03-16-2011, 12:30 PM
  #128
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I love that the Kings board can even turn an OT thread OT. I blame the oil issue on Ryan Smyth btw.

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03-16-2011, 12:33 PM
  #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by driller1 View Post
The simple answer is supply and demand. Notice I said crude prices fell after the tsunami, not gasoline prices.

Couple of factors at play here. Japan only has 5 refineries to turn crude into gasoline. 3 were knocked off line. Despite the fact that Japan will need less gasoline in the near future compared to the time frame prior to the earthquake, they'll still need more than they can refine. They'll need to get the gasoline from somewhere. Guess what, the western United States has gasoline. The Japanese are willing to pay top dollar for gasoline. Until supply and demand balances, the correct economic decision is to send all gasoline to Japan. (This is over simplified, as we can't teleport gasoline overseas- it takes time- but you get the point.) Thus gasoline prices rise while crude prices remain constant (or decline).
But then wouldn't Japan buy its gasoline from the supplier that can fill their demand at the lowest price?

I agree with you, we should send any or all available surpluses to Japan and sell it for whatever profit can be made but only if there is a profit to be made.

Then I would expect as all North American's have for the past several years for those profits to be returned to us by lowering gas prices at the pump, and that just hasn't happened.

I am not blaming anyone specifically by the way, there is enough blame to go around for all of us but it would exceptionally naive to think that the U.S. government and the petro/oil industry doesn't deserve more than the individual consumer in my opinion.

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03-16-2011, 12:33 PM
  #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonellisghost View Post
How is what you and I are saying any different?
Sorry, I thought you were implying that Oil Companies and the Government were behind some conspiracy to raise prices, while I was making a supply and demand argument. Obviously I misinterpreted your post. My bad. Go Kings.

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03-16-2011, 12:35 PM
  #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave33 View Post
I love that the Kings board can even turn an OT thread OT. I blame the oil issue on Ryan Smyth btw.
I blame it on Teodoro Bertuzzi.

ouch

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03-16-2011, 12:41 PM
  #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by driller1 View Post
Sorry, I thought you were implying that Oil Companies and the Government were behind some conspiracy to raise prices, while I was making a supply and demand argument. Obviously I misinterpreted your post. My bad. Go Kings.
Only partially so.

I do blame governments and oil companies largely for where we are today but of course we as the consumer have had the ability to do something about it and as a majority we haven't.

Then again I would never simply blame the U.S. government or the petro/oil industry alone, their are other governments that have taken the lead in messing things up for a long time now. In the end to various level's we are all merely puppets for this monster.

Instead of using the term conspiracy theory in this case (a term that I believe gets a bad knock for sad reasons) I would use a failing of forethought by greedy power hungry criminals who have never given even the slightest bit of concern for the consumer or the planet that they live on group.

Not perfect but something like that I guess.

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03-16-2011, 12:52 PM
  #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonellisghost View Post
But then wouldn't Japan buy its gasoline from the supplier that can fill their demand at the lowest price?

I agree with you, we should send any or all available surpluses to Japan and sell it for whatever profit can be made but only if there is a profit to be made.

Then I would expect as all North American's have for the past several years for those profits to be returned to us by lowering gas prices at the pump, and that just hasn't happened.

I am not blaming anyone specifically by the way, there is enough blame to go around for all of us but it would exceptionally naive to think that the U.S. government and the petro/oil industry doesn't deserve more than the individual consumer in my opinion.
Sort of. There isn't a huge surplus of refining capacity in Asia, so your first problem is finding the stuff. Also, keep in mind that countries like China subsidize their gasoline, so the Chinese population doesn't give a rats ass what crude prices are doing. They pay a fixed rate. (Imagine locking in gas at $1 / gallon with no fluctuation!) And they will continuously buy energy (I'm lumping crude and gasoline together here) at whatever price, because that will keep their economy going.

Unfortunately, the lowest cost supplier may be the US (along with Singapore and Australia), thus pushing refined gasoline higher in all export locations.

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03-16-2011, 01:13 PM
  #134
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True and fair enough. I had considered China when I was writing my post but decided against mentioning them because of their fixed rate policies. They are a major player without a doubt but since they purchase at the same rate (depending on negotiate rates which in my experience typically ends up being very similar to everyone else) I left them out.

In the end though if we are exporting petroleum in order to sell it to a country for a higher rate then we originally bought it for then doesn't it stand to reason that there should be some return to the consumer in this particular situation?

I see our govs being complicit with the petroleum industries for many reasons but then they are only part of a bigger problem so in the end it doesn't really matter who takes all of or most of the blame. That's why I say that there's enough blame to go around even including and down to the individual consumer.

Fortunately for everyone there are alternatives to petroleum that can be used to ameliorate the situation.

Like my rickety water system and my neighbors geothermal (and now my own as of yesterday) power system. I will go home to being pretty much off the grid.

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03-16-2011, 01:48 PM
  #135
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonellisghost View Post
Because the price per barrel, what we used to be able to watch and rely on for determining gasoline prices was put to death in America from 2002 through 2008 and now again during your current administration.

Price per barrel goes up and down but gasoline prices only go up with one minor exception over the past 8 years.

First it was the "war" and since it has been an unending diarrheal cramp and spasm with every uprising, windy day and catastrophe that has been blamed for the need to raise oil prices. I would rather they just give us all the finger and tell us how much they feel like bending us over on any given day.

At least then we can prepare for the intrusion.

But then asking a largely corrupt system to be honest with you on anything for any reason is like asking a crackhead if you can borrow a couple hundred bucks, even if they had it you would be the last person on earth to get it.
That's my thinking as well. If there is a flood in Afghanistan gas prices in Orange County go up the next day? Supply and demand is not effected immediately.

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03-16-2011, 01:56 PM
  #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonellisghost View Post
True and fair enough. I had considered China when I was writing my post but decided against mentioning them because of their fixed rate policies. They are a major player without a doubt but since they purchase at the same rate (depending on negotiate rates which in my experience typically ends up being very similar to everyone else) I left them out.

In the end though if we are exporting petroleum in order to sell it to a country for a higher rate then we originally bought it for then doesn't it stand to reason that there should be some return to the consumer in this particular situation?
We (Singapore, Australia, US, anyone else exporting gasoline to Japan) buys crude oil, refines it, and sells the gasoline to Japan. In this situation, the refiner will "win" and capture the spread between what they purchase crude for and what they sell gasoline for. So no, the consumer will not receive a return.

I expect this to be a short term disruption. As long as Japan gets one or two refineries back online (out of the 3 that are offline), it will be fine and they won't need to import gasoline. I haven't heard reports on the severity of refinery damage, but would be shocked if one wasn't returned to service within a month or two, based on the fact that these refineries should be built to withstand a large earthquake.

Longer term for the US, continuing political instability in Bahrain and Libya will pressure crude to the upside, as well as the technical ineptitude of Mexico/Venezuela, which are both huge exporters to the US. Those are a few of the key risks on worldwide crude supply.

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03-16-2011, 02:01 PM
  #137
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But I suppose some of it depends on your opinion of where our supply levels stand today.

Interesting stuff driller1 fun discussing these things with you. We may not see perfectly eye to eye but there is certainly common ground.

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03-16-2011, 02:09 PM
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tikkanen View Post
That's my thinking as well. If there is a flood in Afghanistan gas prices in Orange County go up the next day? Supply and demand is not effected immediately.
Afghanistan doesn't produce crude oil and therefore doesn't impact supply. If Saudi was hit with a natural disaster, then you would easily see gas prices shoot through the roof in Orange County in under a week. I'm talking $8, $10, $20 a gallon type prices.

Libya, Oman, Bahrain are the places that matter (from a supply perspective that are currently unstable.)

Crude oil prices will trade based on the perception of supply (or lack thereof) in the future. Gasoline, as a byproduct of crude, will trade roughly in line. (It is not perfectly correlated, as refining margins are what cause the decoupling of gasoline and crude.)

Also, keep in mind the US has HUGE inventories of crude storage (we're at all time highs right now for storage), which helps dampen effect.

Bottom line though, crude is a global commodity-- everything impacts what you pay at the gas pump, even events that seem irrelevant and half a world away.

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03-16-2011, 02:53 PM
  #139
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Japan needs a lot of bucks right now and US owns Japan a lot and so does a bunch of other countries. The time has come for Japan to collect and this will have big effects on the world economy and oil prices and "bank rates" ( not sure I'm using the correct words, but I hope you follow). Rates will increase and the common worker will pay the bill as usually. I'm not the slightest optimistic about the future for the next five years.

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03-16-2011, 03:10 PM
  #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by driller1 View Post
Afghanistan doesn't produce crude oil and therefore doesn't impact supply. If Saudi was hit with a natural disaster, then you would easily see gas prices shoot through the roof in Orange County in under a week. I'm talking $8, $10, $20 a gallon type prices.

Libya, Oman, Bahrain are the places that matter (from a supply perspective that are currently unstable.)

Crude oil prices will trade based on the perception of supply (or lack thereof) in the future. Gasoline, as a byproduct of crude, will trade roughly in line. (It is not perfectly correlated, as refining margins are what cause the decoupling of gasoline and crude.)

Also, keep in mind the US has HUGE inventories of crude storage (we're at all time highs right now for storage), which helps dampen effect.

Bottom line though, crude is a global commodity-- everything impacts what you pay at the gas pump, even events that seem irrelevant and half a world away.
Simply using Afghanistan as an example. If it's simply supply and demand and supplies are high then a tsunami in Japan should have zero effect on gas prices the very next day in Orange County. Bad news=an excuse by oil companies to go on a money grabbing binge. Again, I'll ask for an answer-why has gas gone up about a dollar in the last month? I'm simply looking for a factual answer so I know why I'm suddenly paying $4 a gallon for gas.

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03-16-2011, 03:48 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by Tikkanen View Post
Simply using Afghanistan as an example. If it's simply supply and demand and supplies are high then a tsunami in Japan should have zero effect on gas prices the very next day in Orange County. Bad news=an excuse by oil companies to go on a money grabbing binge. Again, I'll ask for an answer-why has gas gone up about a dollar in the last month? I'm simply looking for a factual answer so I know why I'm suddenly paying $4 a gallon for gas.
Who said supply was high? And for what product? There are 2 distinct prices at play: crude oil prices and gasoline prices. Crude can be balanced on a global scale while at the same time gasoline can be imbalanced locally. Crude oil is a globalized commodity. Gasoline (a refined product of crude) is more localized.

To answer your question, gasoline prices are a combination of several things. Reason #1 is the biggest driver of your gasoline price, but everything else contributes.

1) Crude prices went from ~$75 barrel in the beginning of 2010 to ~$100 today (mostly since the beginning of 2011). There is a lag effect of crude prices going up versus what you see at the pump. Gasoline Prices were bound to rise.
2) This rise in crude prices are more attributable to tension in the Middle East than the tsunami.
3) In fact, consumption (demand) in Japan is expected to decrease, thereby placing downward pressure on global crude supplies.
4) Several refineries got knocked off line in Japan. Gasoline in free market countries bordering the Pacific will have short term pressure to the upside.
5) US regulations localize gasoline by regions, which is highly inefficient. Effectively, two or three refineries in the LA area provide gasoline to the entire LA region. The LA area can't simply trade gasoline with Phoenix or Salt Lake regions. This adds to your cost-- LA has some of the highest gasoline costs in the US through regulation and taxes. (New Jersey by contrast typically has gasoline ~$0.50/gallon cheaper.)
6) Refineries are beginning to plan for a turnaround to make summer blends of crude. This effectively takes refining capacity away for 2 weeks. This will pressure gasoline prices to the upside.

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03-16-2011, 04:37 PM
  #142
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But if that is the case then why is that we have been seeing the ebb and flow of ever increasing higher prices at the pump since 2002?

The API (american petroleum institute: itself said in its 2005 end of year report that the market is trending to catch up with average global prices per gallon and is set to do so before year end 2012?

At that time they had that price at $5.27 per gallon of gasoline (on average).

If this ebb and flow saw prices increasing and then decreasing back to or below the pre effected price then I would understand your position better but since it is an ever increasing rise leading up to the industries own 2012 price projection of $5,27 per gallon (on average) it seems disingenuous at best.

I think that therein lies the problem, why if we suddenly started seeing these increases based on whatever function of global sociopolitical economics you want to chose haven't we seen the tide ever go back down to the same or lower levels than it was before said reason?

It has at best dropped back to within a few cents more than its previous price only to climb high again in short time and then drop back down to an even higher than original price again and again and so on?

This is part of a plan to bring the U.S. up to par with the rest of the world when it comes to the price of refined petroleum prices and I don't think that is a conspiracy theory in as much as it appears to be a simple observable fact.

All we have to do is check the price of refined petroleum products over the past decade to see how things have worked to find the facts. At least in as far as North America is concerned.

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03-16-2011, 05:06 PM
  #143
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Originally Posted by Tonellisghost View Post
But if that is the case then why is that we have been seeing the ebb and flow of ever increasing higher prices at the pump since 2002?

The API (american petroleum institute: itself said in its 2005 end of year report that the market is trending to catch up with average global prices per gallon and is set to do so before year end 2012?

At that time they had that price at $5.27 per gallon of gasoline (on average).

If this ebb and flow saw prices increasing and then decreasing back to or below the pre effected price then I would understand your position better but since it is an ever increasing rise leading up to the industries own 2012 price projection of $5,27 per gallon (on average) it seems disingenuous at best.

I think that therein lies the problem, why if we suddenly started seeing these increases based on whatever function of global sociopolitical economics you want to chose haven't we seen the tide ever go back down to the same or lower levels than it was before said reason?

It has at best dropped back to within a few cents more than its previous price only to climb high again in short time and then drop back down to an even higher than original price again and again and so on?

This is part of a plan to bring the U.S. up to par with the rest of the world when it comes to the price of refined petroleum prices and I don't think that is a conspiracy theory in as much as it appears to be a simple observable fact.

All we have to do is check the price of refined petroleum products over the past decade to see how things have worked to find the facts. At least in as far as North America is concerned.
Thus far in this thread, I have tried to explain the short term pricing fluctuation of crude (and by extension gasoline price, and even tried to rationalize local pricing for OC.) You now ask a very valid question regarding the long term price trend of crude.

Back to supply and demand. Supply has decreased (as measured by excess capacity to pump more crude oil out of the ground on a given day) and demand has increased. Namely, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, & China) countries have exploded in terms of energy consumption. Did you know China overtook the US last year as the country that consumed the most energy (all sources of energy-- not crude). This gradual tightening of the supply demand curve for crude oil will inevitably push crude prices higher over the intermediate and long term. You will see short term fluctuations in the price of crude, but the price of crude will inevitably go up. Sorry to say, but all the easily developed oil fields in the world have already been discovered. This will push crude/gasoline prices higher in the future.

Also, be careful about "global gasoline prices." Its important to fundamentally understand what people pay in different countries. Countries like China, Malayasia, Indonesia, and Venezuela have fixed (subsidized) gasoline prices for their citizens (< $1-$2 / gallon). Countries like Norway and England (and anyplace in Europe for that matter) tax the hell out of gasoline, such that gasoline is $9 / gallon in Norway and $6-$8 in most of Europe.

Lastly, let me point out that oil as a global commodity is traded in US Dollars. Therefore, if crude oil rises, but the US dollar depreciates versus other currencies, the net result will be that US consumers will pay higher gasoline prices while European/foreign consumers don't see a change (since they pay for gasoline in Euros).

In summary, I personally expect crude and gasoline prices to increase over the intermediate to long term while short term fluctuations will be dictated by localized events (sadly Japan and the Middle East right now).

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03-16-2011, 06:42 PM
  #144
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I'm about to leave guam to deliver humanitarian aid to Japan... I'm little nervous about Fukushima, but the closest I'll get is about 60 miles...

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03-16-2011, 07:12 PM
  #145
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I'm about to leave guam to deliver humanitarian aid to Japan... I'm little nervous about Fukushima, but the closest I'll get is about 60 miles...
Godspeed and remember to take your iodine. If you can bring some Iodine povidone solution to bath/clean with you would be as set as your going to be.

All of the best to you.

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03-16-2011, 07:29 PM
  #146
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Thus far in this thread, I have tried to explain the short term pricing fluctuation of crude (and by extension gasoline price, and even tried to rationalize local pricing for OC.) You now ask a very valid question regarding the long term price trend of crude.

Back to supply and demand. Supply has decreased (as measured by excess capacity to pump more crude oil out of the ground on a given day) and demand has increased. Namely, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, & China) countries have exploded in terms of energy consumption. Did you know China overtook the US last year as the country that consumed the most energy (all sources of energy-- not crude). This gradual tightening of the supply demand curve for crude oil will inevitably push crude prices higher over the intermediate and long term. You will see short term fluctuations in the price of crude, but the price of crude will inevitably go up. Sorry to say, but all the easily developed oil fields in the world have already been discovered. This will push crude/gasoline prices higher in the future.

Also, be careful about "global gasoline prices." Its important to fundamentally understand what people pay in different countries. Countries like China, Malayasia, Indonesia, and Venezuela have fixed (subsidized) gasoline prices for their citizens (< $1-$2 / gallon). Countries like Norway and England (and anyplace in Europe for that matter) tax the hell out of gasoline, such that gasoline is $9 / gallon in Norway and $6-$8 in most of Europe.

Lastly, let me point out that oil as a global commodity is traded in US Dollars. Therefore, if crude oil rises, but the US dollar depreciates versus other currencies, the net result will be that US consumers will pay higher gasoline prices while European/foreign consumers don't see a change (since they pay for gasoline in Euros).

In summary, I personally expect crude and gasoline prices to increase over the intermediate to long term while short term fluctuations will be dictated by localized events (sadly Japan and the Middle East right now).


I guess I will start with noting that I didn't need you to explain the short term pricing fluctuation of crude pricing to me, you might have meant someone else as I didn't ask anything about O.C. either.
We may have somewhat different interpretations of the specific details of the concept but I feel that both of us have an obvious grasp on the machinations of how the petroleum industry comes to determine its pricing.

Secondly to answer you question regarding China my answer is yes, I did know that and I am pretty certain that most people who have any interest in the matter did as well as it was widely published.

The most interesting statement that you have made and one that we are in total agreement about is the speculation that North American (not only u.s. consumers but us Canadians too) will indeed have to pay more for everything including crude and petroleum products due to the rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Especially so as countries like China among other rapidly divest themselves of U.S. dollars.

Sadly I think that the U.S. is in for serious financial termoil for the next several years.

Interesting points all around.

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