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The home stretch

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Old
03-16-2011, 12:48 PM
  #1
barcs
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The home stretch

It's looking as if 91 points may be the magic number for securely clinching the playoff spot right now and we currently have 76 points with 12 games remaining. There are 24 possible points on the table and we need 15 of them to give ourselves a comfortable shot.

SAT MAR 19: ATL
SUN MAR 20: NSH The Preds will have been home the night before for a 7PM start and then head to Buffalo for a 4PM start


TUE MAR 22: @MTL Habs will have had Saturday and Monday off heading into this one

FRI MAR 25: FLA
SAT MAR 26: NJD Devils will have been in Pittsburgh the night before and by this time should be out of gas with games against the Caps and Bruins before we meet.

TUE MAR 29: @TOR
WED MAR 30: NYR

SAT APR 02: @WAS
SUN APR 03: @CAR Had this been the first game of the road back to backs I'd think we'd be in good position for 2 points but it's hard to see us getting much more than a point out of this one.

TUE APR 05: TBL

FRI APR 08: PHI
SAT APR 09: @CLB The Jackets should officially be out of contention at this point. I expect playoff desperation from the Sabres. A point, maybe 2 here considering the schedule.

So personally, and I am no expert, I see at the very least 10 points that should be easily taken. The @MTL, @Toronto, NYR, TBL and Philly games are all toss ups to me, but getting 5-6 points out of those 5 games is doable.

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Old
03-16-2011, 01:18 PM
  #2
Ron Barr
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**** all those back-to-backs. If we aren't making the playoffs it's because of the **** schedule making.

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Old
03-16-2011, 02:54 PM
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Barr View Post
**** all those back-to-backs. If we aren't making the playoffs it's because of the **** schedule making.
Hecht as the number 1 center doesnt help. Nothing against Hecht, but it's a positionhe shouldnt be forced to play. There are holes on this team management needs to fill before we can expect too much.

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Old
03-16-2011, 03:03 PM
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Jame
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Barr View Post
**** all those back-to-backs. If we aren't making the playoffs it's because of the **** schedule making.
yea, not the first 2 months of the season

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Old
03-16-2011, 03:49 PM
  #5
gaf
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Originally Posted by Ron Barr View Post
**** all those back-to-backs. If we aren't making the playoffs it's because of the **** schedule making.
I'd be lying if I told you I know exactly how all the scheduling thing worked- but I can tell you that I've read a couple of times that the Sabres requested Fri/Sat games as priorities- so blame LQ

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Old
03-16-2011, 03:52 PM
  #6
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If 7-4-1 gets them in, I'm cautiously optimistic.

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Old
03-16-2011, 05:02 PM
  #7
Ron Barr
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My prediction:

vs. ATL - L
vs. NSH - W
vs. MTL - L
vs. FLA - W
vs. NJD - OTL
vs. TOR - W
vs. NYR - L
vs. WAS - L
vs. CAR - L
vs. TBL - OTL
vs. PHI - L
vs. CBJ - W

Record: 4-6-2, 10 out of 24 points

I still think this team has a losing streak in them. All teams have them late in the season. New York and Carolina had them, even Montreal did a while ago too.

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Old
03-16-2011, 05:07 PM
  #8
SiriusBizinuez
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gaf View Post
I'd be lying if I told you I know exactly how all the scheduling thing worked- but I can tell you that I've read a couple of times that the Sabres requested Fri/Sat games as priorities- so blame LQ
This is a frame of mind that I can be comfortable in. ()

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Old
03-16-2011, 05:07 PM
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barcs
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vs. ATL - W
vs. NSH - W
vs. MTL - L
vs. FLA - W
vs. NJD - W
vs. TOR - L
vs. NYR - W
vs. WAS - L
vs. CAR - OTL
vs. TBL - OTL
vs. PHI - L
vs. CBJ - W

6-3-2 for 14 points for a total of 90 is my stretch run prediction

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Old
03-16-2011, 06:12 PM
  #10
thefifagod
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Originally Posted by Ryan Ellis Problems View Post
If 7-4-1 gets them in, I'm cautiously optimistic.
91 points will more than likely be plenty. I'm thinking 89 or possibly even 88 points will make it.

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Old
03-16-2011, 06:24 PM
  #11
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I feel like 89/90 will get in, but i could see 9th place finishing around 86/87. so maybe 87/88 will get in.
Of coruse, this is assuming NJD wont win out, which is not out of the realm of possibilities

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Old
03-16-2011, 06:24 PM
  #12
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10-1-1

Read it.
Print it.
Magnetize it too your fridge.

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Old
03-16-2011, 06:28 PM
  #13
PuckSim8
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yea, not the first 2 months of the season
The schedule was crap then too.

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Old
03-16-2011, 06:34 PM
  #14
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vs. ATL - W
vs. NSH - OTL
vs. MTL - L
vs. FLA - W
vs. NJD - L
vs. TOR - W
vs. NYR - W
vs. WAS - L
vs. CAR - L
vs. TBL - W
vs. PHI - OTL
vs. CBJ - W

6-4-2 for 90 points total

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Old
03-16-2011, 08:08 PM
  #15
joshjull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gaf View Post
I'd be lying if I told you I know exactly how all the scheduling thing worked- but I can tell you that I've read a couple of times that the Sabres requested Fri/Sat games as priorities- so blame LQ
I've actually been thinking about this in terms of next years schedule. We may see some changes. So possibly we wont be one of the teams with the most back to backs in the NHL.

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Old
03-16-2011, 09:05 PM
  #16
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I've actually been thinking about this in terms of next years schedule. We may see some changes. So possibly we wont be one of the teams with the most back to backs in the NHL.
I dont know the numbers off the top of my head- but the last three years we've either had the most back to back or have been in the top 3. Are there 22- this year? or close to that? Crazy, its gotta have an impact- or at least it'd seem to.

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Old
03-16-2011, 10:22 PM
  #17
cybresabre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Barr View Post
**** all those back-to-backs. If we aren't making the playoffs it's because of the **** schedule making.
How many backup goalies have we played?

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Old
03-16-2011, 10:28 PM
  #18
Zip15
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Originally Posted by gaf View Post
I dont know the numbers off the top of my head- but the last three years we've either had the most back to back or have been in the top 3. Are there 22- this year? or close to that? Crazy, its gotta have an impact- or at least it'd seem to.
Of course it has an impact. In the second of a back-to-back most teams have a win% far below their season win%. And when the second is on a road, the win% is very low (I saw the numbers a month ago, but can't seem to find them now). And our past ownership insisted on Friday night home games, which usually meant Saturday night road games. I joked that this was the result of a crack study by Quinn and Golisano finding that fans drink more beer on Fridays, hence more concession money. But, in all seriousness, it puts the team at a great competitive disadvantage, and it needs to be remedied.

I continue to implore people to pepper the suggestion box regarding this issue. Whatever needs to happen for us to have fewer back-to-backs should happen.

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Old
03-16-2011, 10:37 PM
  #19
joshjull
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Originally Posted by gaf View Post
I dont know the numbers off the top of my head- but the last three years we've either had the most back to back or have been in the top 3. Are there 22- this year? or close to that? Crazy, its gotta have an impact- or at least it'd seem to.
It does.

How about this scheduling madness.

Scheduling 5pm Sunday games the day after we play at 7pm on Saturday two weekends in a row.

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Old
03-16-2011, 10:58 PM
  #20
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Of course it has an impact. In the second of a back-to-back most teams have a win% far below their season win%. And when the second is on a road, the win% is very low (I saw the numbers a month ago, but can't seem to find them now). And our past ownership insisted on Friday night home games, which usually meant Saturday night road games. I joked that this was the result of a crack study by Quinn and Golisano finding that fans drink more beer on Fridays, hence more concession money. But, in all seriousness, it puts the team at a great competitive disadvantage, and it needs to be remedied.

I continue to implore people to pepper the suggestion box regarding this issue. Whatever needs to happen for us to have fewer back-to-backs should happen.
It's not about drinking beer. More people can go to games on weekends. I'm at the point now where I can pretty much only go to games on the weekend. I sell 95% of my tickets at this point, and weekend games always go for about 2 times more than weekday games. The team can charge more on their variable pricing as well. So when you look at weekend games, it's a win-win really- more fans can go, and the team can make more money.

The problem is in the Northeast division if you want to have a weekend game it has to be more often than not on Friday or Sunday b/c the three Canadian teams monopolize those Saturday nights. So the option is either have dramatically fewer weekend games (less revenue, less fans can go) or move out of the Northeast division.

Actually, the Sabres did seem to have a lot more Saturday night games at home this year which was a positive.

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Old
03-16-2011, 11:04 PM
  #21
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Originally Posted by Play4Miracles View Post
10-1-1

Read it.
Print it.
Magnetize it too your fridge.
I believe!

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Old
03-17-2011, 12:44 AM
  #22
joshjull
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Originally Posted by aceface33 View Post
It's not about drinking beer. More people can go to games on weekends. I'm at the point now where I can pretty much only go to games on the weekend. I sell 95% of my tickets at this point, and weekend games always go for about 2 times more than weekday games. The team can charge more on their variable pricing as well. So when you look at weekend games, it's a win-win really- more fans can go, and the team can make more money.
Isn't the reason you only go on weekends is because you no longer live in the area? Thats hardly representitive of the typical Sabres ticket buyer.

Quote:
The problem is in the Northeast division if you want to have a weekend game it has to be more often than not on Friday or Sunday b/c the three Canadian teams monopolize those Saturday nights. So the option is either have dramatically fewer weekend games (less revenue, less fans can go) or move out of the Northeast division.

Actually, the Sabres did seem to have a lot more Saturday night games at home this year which was a positive

Couple of things

1) Playing in the Northeast division with 3 Canadian teams has very little to do with leading the league in back to back games.

We played a total of 24 games at home on the weekend (11 on Friday, 9 on Saturday and 4 on Sunday). Only 7 of those games were against Canadian divisional opponents (5 on Fri, 1 Sat and 1 Sun). At most we have to play our Canadian division rivals 9x at home. Thats hardly enough games to force the amount of back to back games we've had.

We had 22 back to backs this year. Only 7 were caused by having to play a Canadian division rival at home on a Friday, Sat or Sunday.

2) We can lose some weekend games and still maintain revenues with variable pricing.

There are multiple scenarios where they could move high draw teams from the weekends and put them on weekdays. A simple example would be putting all the Toronto and Pittsburgh games on weekdays. Thats 5 gms that will draw regardless of the night and will cost top dollar either way (Pittsburgh was a gold game on a Wed and a Sat this year).

Considering 14 of weekend games were silver, 2 were bronze games and most of the 8 gold/platinum games could go for the same price during the week(Toronto 2x, Montreal 2x, Pittsburgh, Boston, NYR and Detroit). Lets not pretend these weekend games getting moved around will somehow cripple the team financially.


3) Fewer back to backs could mean a few more wins and a better chance at a playoff spot. Which means playoff revenue.

Even if its just 2 or 3 more wins. Thats huge with the way playoff races are in the NHL. And as we all know the playoffs are where teams can make a nice chunk of a change. So even if they lost a bit with less weekend games (it would be minimal if at all). They would make it back and then some in the playoffs.

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Old
03-17-2011, 11:23 AM
  #23
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6-3-2 for 14 points for a total of 90 is my stretch run prediction
Even that is a tall order. They've squandered opportunities and they are going to fall short.

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Old
03-17-2011, 11:36 AM
  #24
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I miss the days when 82 points was enough to make the playoffs. Thanks stupid OTL points. What was wrong with ties again?

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Old
03-17-2011, 11:38 AM
  #25
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Tuesdays game will end up breaking their neck in the end. They not only could have moved 6 points ahead, they also could have destroyed Carolinas hopes to make the playoffs.

It's embarrassing this team couldn't show up when needed most.


No playoffs this year for the Sabres.

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