Tuesdays game will end up breaking their neck in the end. They not only could have moved 6 points ahead, they also could have destroyed Carolinas hopes to make the playoffs.
It's embarrassing this team couldn't show up when needed most.
No playoffs this year for the Sabres.
They did show up on Tuesday -- they bombed Carolina with shots throughout the first period. And then they lost their legs, most likely due to the ridiculousness of their schedule over the last two weeks.
As for the final run... something in a 6-6-0 or 6-5-1 is what I'm expecting. Will it be good enough? We shall see.
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It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. - Aristotle
I miss the days when 82 points was enough to make the playoffs. Thanks stupid OTL points. What was wrong with ties again?
OTLs, shootouts, were made to appease the casual fans who most of the time won't even bother tuning in anyway. But that's how marketing is today. It's not about satisfying your customers, it's only about getting more. Strange world we live in.
They did show up on Tuesday -- they bombed Carolina with shots throughout the first period. And then they lost their legs, most likely due to the ridiculousness of their schedule over the last two weeks.
If you are not able to score a single goal, something has got to be wrong ... and that's neither the goalie they are shooting at, nor the schedule. There were huge parts of our playoff chances on the line, decided in on game .... and they couldn't score one goal - that's rediculous. All I'm saying is that I really missed the desparation there ... (except of maybe the first period, where they nonetheless finally lost the game)
As for the original topic:
I think 89/90 points may be enough for making the playoffs. If we go .500 from here on the chances of getting in are still around 60% - I just doubt we get there ...
OTLs, shootouts, were made to appease the casual fans who most of the time won't even bother tuning in anyway. But that's how marketing is today. It's not about satisfying your customers, it's only about getting more. Strange world we live in.
No, they were created to make the teams play for something. Anyone around here remember 5 minutes of yawn?
Isn't the reason you only go on weekends is because you no longer live in the area? Thats hardly representitive of the typical Sabres ticket buyer.
Maybe so, but many more fans must be able to make it on weekends because weekend games go for so much more than weekday games. Trust me, I sell every game. Even for a Leafs game during the week I'm lucky to get face value (by that I mean box office price, not STH price). Weekend games always go for about 2 times more. And if the Sabres get a cut of the stub hub sales they see part of that money.
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Couple of things
1) Playing in the Northeast division with 3 Canadian teams has very little to do with leading the league in back to back games.
We played a total of 24 games at home on the weekend (11 on Friday, 9 on Saturday and 4 on Sunday). Only 7 of those games were against Canadian divisional opponents (5 on Fri, 1 Sat and 1 Sun). At most we have to play our Canadian division rivals 9x at home. Thats hardly enough games to force the amount of back to back games we've had.
We had 22 back to backs this year. Only 7 were caused by having to play a Canadian division rival at home on a Friday, Sat or Sunday.
Look at it this way: Saturday I think for obvious reasons is the night that teams most want to have their home games. For the Sabres, 9 out of 41 home games are not available on Saturday because the 3 Canadian teams have to have those for HNIC. Whereas teams in other divisions probably split those Saturday games. This gives the Sabres a handicap in trying to schedule Saturday night home games which I would argue has a ripple effect across the schedule. I counted for a few teams which typically had 11 or 12 Saturday home games while the Sabres have 9. I did not count for every team, so this might be way off. But if it is a safe assumption then for those 2 or 3 extra weekends, if the Sabres want to have a weekend home game, it has to be a Friday night, and typically a back to back. It doesn't seem like a lot, but just taking away 3 back to backs might mean 3 more victories, which is huge for the playoff race like you said.
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2) We can lose some weekend games and still maintain revenues with variable pricing.
There are multiple scenarios where they could move high draw teams from the weekends and put them on weekdays. A simple example would be putting all the Toronto and Pittsburgh games on weekdays. Thats 5 gms that will draw regardless of the night and will cost top dollar either way (Pittsburgh was a gold game on a Wed and a Sat this year).
That Pittsburgh game is a bit of an abberation since it was on Christmas eve. But I think the reason why the team scheduled 8 gold/platinum games on weekends as opposed to only 2 during the week is that they know they can sell more of the high priced tickets to these games during the weekends. In a sense this is where variable pricing bites them in the ass because while they could schedule a gold game against Toronto and maybe Pittsburgh during the week and still sell the same amount of tickets, doing that for any other team would be rough. Which forces them to schedule more weekend games at home so they can charge gold/platinum prices, which leads to more back to backs, etc etc.
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Considering 14 of weekend games were silver, 2 were bronze games and most of the 8 gold/platinum games could go for the same price during the week(Toronto 2x, Montreal 2x, Pittsburgh, Boston, NYR and Detroit). Lets not pretend these weekend games getting moved around will somehow cripple the team financially.
I strongly disagree that a gold game against Boston, NYR, Detroit, or even Montreal would go for the same price during the week. I think you'd see crowds of 15,000 at these games if they were golds during the week. Hell, a Montreal gold game on Friday Oct. 15th had 17,000 and change. I don't think it would cripple the team financially but I think it would lead to a significant decrease in revenues. Which, for a team run by Golisano with a mandate to break even is huge. But, it's probably also big for revenue sharing (see below).
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3) Fewer back to backs could mean a few more wins and a better chance at a playoff spot. Which means playoff revenue.
Even if its just 2 or 3 more wins. Thats huge with the way playoff races are in the NHL. And as we all know the playoffs are where teams can make a nice chunk of a change. So even if they lost a bit with less weekend games (it would be minimal if at all). They would make it back and then some in the playoffs.
I won't argue with this. But it's a big if and with the Sabres old regime it was all about the bottom line. If revenue is not as much of an object with the new group maybe they will go with more weekday games. But they might not have that option if they still want to get revenue sharing. To be included, revenues have to go up every year which mean ticket prices have to go up. The Sabres get away with modest increases by putting more games on the weekend that they can charge more for. Which leads to more back to backs. Which is where I started I think.
Carolina and Jersey can only get a total of 96 if they win every game
We can get 100 at most.
I guarantee these teams dont pull this off, except NJ based off past 30 games
Its going to be 88ish like last year and to get in the west its going to be 92-95
As for my prediction
vs. ATL - W (come on its atlanta who sucks lately)
vs. NSH - OTL (They will be fighting for lives and its usually a low scoring game and I like Rinne over Miller here)
vs. MTL - W (at this point Montreal comfortable with being in playoffs wont have as much intensity so won't injure more of their banged up team)
vs. FLA - W (we've taken too much from Florida this year. Their season is done so lets finish them)
vs. NJD - L (lets be serious Vancouver would have a tough time beating this amped up team)
vs. TOR - W (two straight losses to Toronto. By this point they will likely endure a losing streak to end hopes and we will pummel them here)
vs. NYR - L (We beat NYR and they need separation from us and their offense is too much to handle for us)
vs. WAS - L (Look lost out there for this one. This boards say we have no hope since Washington owns us here)
vs. CAR - W (After that loss we need this won, and they come up big barely for a hugely clutch win)
vs. TBL - OTL (Tampa energized by first playoff berth in awhile and Stamkos fighting for MVP so Tampa hands us an overtime loss on the PP from a snipe from Stamkos because we take a dumb tripping penalty in OT, sounds familiar)
vs. PHI - OTL (We blow a lead and Philly jumps on it after a bad loss last game, Philly ready for playoffs)
vs. CBJ - W (Columbus plays mainly rookies since out of playoffs, we land an easy shutout victory)
We have the tie break Vs Rangers and Carolina so far with a tie, if Carolina win one more regular season game to tie us with the shootout total we are + 1 same vs Rangers and Toronto. There is just New Jersey if they put a miracle run they will get more regular/OT wins than us. So right now we have 2 points ahead Carolina with 1 game in hand and virtually 3 points since they have to finish in front of us. We are 2 points back of the Rangers with 1 game in hand and actually with the total regular/OT wins, in a tie, Rangers finish behind us.
A win vs Carolina would almost seal the deal but we are still own our destiny.
I won't dare to make sweeping predictions about every game from here until the end, but I will say this. I think we beat Carolina on 5/3. I don't think they have the heart this year. Sure, they got us on Tuesday, but look at that game. A 1-0 victory from a fresh Carolina team against a totally gassed Sabres. They aren't having any better luck building on big wins than we are, and I would even say they have less success doing so. Carolina just isn't there, even less so than some here think we are.
Tuesdays game will end up breaking their neck in the end. They not only could have moved 6 points ahead, they also could have destroyed Carolinas hopes to make the playoffs.
It's embarrassing this team couldn't show up when needed most.
No playoffs this year for the Sabres.
based on what? 12 games left buddy. Overreact much?
We have the tie break Vs Rangers and Carolina so far with a tie, if Carolina win one more regular season game to tie us with the shootout total we are + 1 same vs Rangers and Toronto. There is just New Jersey if they put a miracle run they will get more regular/OT wins than us. So right now we have 2 points ahead Carolina with 1 game in hand and virtually 3 points since they have to finish in front of us. We are 2 points back of the Rangers with 1 game in hand and actually with the total regular/OT wins, in a tie, Rangers finish behind us.
A win vs Carolina would almost seal the deal but we are still own our destiny.
What's the first tiebreaker? Carolina has us so far in head-to-head and NYR has us in wins.
What's the first tiebreaker? Carolina has us so far in head-to-head and NYR has us in wins.
First tiebreaker is non-shootout wins. Sabres and Rangers both have 29 (but the Sabres are two points behind NYR), Hurricanes currently have 28 (but are two points behind the Sabres)
First tiebreaker is non-shootout wins. Sabres and Rangers both have 29 (but the Sabres are two points behind NYR), Hurricanes currently have 28 (but are two points behind the Sabres)
Yes the 1st tie-break is wins before the shootout. We are 1 ahead the Hurricanes and after that they probably go with the usual total wins and we have 2 more than Hurricanes, give them a win to tie us, they are still 1 win behind.
Same situation with the Rangers, if we get a win before the shootout to tie them, we will have one more than them so far before shootout.
* The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
* The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout (NEW for 2010-11). This figure is reflected in the ROW column.
* The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
* The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.
* The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
* The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout (NEW for 2010-11). This figure is reflected in the ROW column.
* The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
* The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.
So just plain "wins" is not a tiebreaker if non-SO wins are even, meaning after a tie it would go to head-to-head..well, beat Carolina the next meeting and we have that taken care of anyway.
sabres vs. hurricanes: 3 points to 4 points
sabres vs. rangers : 3 points to 4 points
with a game left against both of them.
if we win straight up, we get that tie breaker on them, if we win in overtime, it goes to goal difference, which we will own on hurricans, not on the rangers
vs. ATL: W
vs. NSH: L
at MON: OTL
vs. FLA: W
vs. NJD: W
at TOR: W
vs. NYR: OTL
at WSH: L
at CAR: W
vs. TB: L
vs. PHI: L
at CBJ: W
6-4-2 for 14 pts so 91 total on the year.
The back to backs are gonna be killers...and we REALLY need to show up for the games against teams below us (atlanta, florida, toronto, jersey especially) we can't blow points/blow games against teams we should beat. that's been a problem all year unfortunately
With 7 of the last 12 at home, Buffalo NEEDS to start winning at home. Out of the 16 teams that would make the playoffs today, only 1 has a losing record at home...........The Sabres.
vs. ATL: W
vs. NSH: L
at MON: OTL
vs. FLA: W
vs. NJD: W
at TOR: W
vs. NYR: OTL
at WSH: L
at CAR: W
vs. TB: L
vs. PHI: L
at CBJ: W
6-4-2 for 14 pts so 91 total on the year.
The back to backs are gonna be killers...and we REALLY need to show up for the games against teams below us (atlanta, florida, toronto, jersey especially) we can't blow points/blow games against teams we should beat. that's been a problem all year unfortunately
sabres vs. hurricanes: 3 points to 4 points
sabres vs. rangers : 3 points to 4 points
with a game left against both of them.
if we win straight up, we get that tie breaker on them, if we win in overtime, it goes to goal difference, which we will own on hurricans, not on the rangers
