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March 17: Conference call update (post #236); Pronger, hand surgery, out 3-4 weeks

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Old
03-18-2011, 11:43 AM
  #251
Jester
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Originally Posted by infidelappel View Post
I don't really recall him being a playoff choke artist....

And yeah, he has plenty of big goals on his resume. OT winner against Tampa Bay, OT winner vs Boston, game 7 winner vs Boston all immediately come to mind.

Does Carter even have one goal with as much significance as any of those?

No.


Plus, Gagne's career GPG is also better, soo......



Carter is not as good in the playoffs as he is in the regular season, and pales in comparison to Gagne, Briere, and Richards. But his regular season numbers are so great! Too bad they don't translate to the postseason.

As I said, we'll see how it goes this year. He appears to be rolling well right now and healthy, so hopefully he gets nasty with it. I'm just not holding my breath, because I don't think he has the ability to bear down and get it done when the pressure's on.
You don't remember it because the argument was just as dumb as the Carter one today.

Gagne's first 41 playoff games: 12-6-18. (Yes, Carter has a better first 41 games...)

Gagnes next 49 playoff games: 20-9-29.

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03-18-2011, 11:50 AM
  #252
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
You don't remember it because the argument was just as dumb as the Carter one today.

Gagne's first 41 playoff games: 12-6-18. (Yes, Carter has a better first 41 games...)

Gagnes next 49 playoff games: 20-9-29.
I also don't remember it because I don't think I was here for it, or just missed it.

They have virtually the same numbers through 41 games, except Carter has one more assist.

It doesn't change that Carter hasn't gotten it done to date, though. I'll be happy if Carter's next 49 playoff games are anything like Gagne's last 49.

I never said he couldn't do it, just that he hasn't.

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03-18-2011, 12:43 PM
  #253
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Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
I don't think anyone can dispute Carter's playoffs haven't been quite up to par with his regular seasons. I also don't think he entirely disappears, and I'm not particularly a fan of "clutch" arguments. Briere is one of the like 10 people on earth that are genuinely clutch. I also don't discount Carter's injuries last year. I'm going to let this year's playoffs determine my verdict on Carter.
But Briere didn't bury his chances in Game 6 OT either.

You also have to consider the match ups context. Carter played really well vs. the Pens a couple years ago, but they put their entire effort into checking his line (Staal's line, Scuderi and Gill on D) which made it easier for guys like Briere and Richards to score.

Last year Giroux was scoring a lot, but largely because he was a 2nd line talent playing vs. the other teams' third or 4th line. Briere's line was thrown together and excelled, but the wheels seem to have fallen of it.

Even in the finals last year, Chicago played Toews' line head to head vs. Richards and broken footed Carter and Gagne, they didn't play them vs. the Briere or Giroux lines.

As a result, the 'big' lines largely played themselves to a standstill that wasn't broken until Quenneville broke up Kane and Toews.

If Carter can continue playing the way he is, I'm sure he'll do just fine in the playoffs. But we need three scoring lines anyway, so a lot depends on our captain finding his groove again too.

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03-18-2011, 12:51 PM
  #254
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Originally Posted by infidelappel View Post
I also don't remember it because I don't think I was here for it, or just missed it.

They have virtually the same numbers through 41 games, except Carter has one more assist.

It doesn't change that Carter hasn't gotten it done to date, though. I'll be happy if Carter's next 49 playoff games are anything like Gagne's last 49.

I never said he couldn't do it, just that he hasn't.
Which is fine, but you've also used that to question his "clutch" factor and all that other garbage. It would be great if players got into "big game" situations and just puttered along with big performance after big performance, but that's not the way it works. Derek Jeter was a MONSTER when he first got to the playoffs, and has been rather pedestrian since... other guys struggle and get branded "chokers" and all that stuff. Some guys just putter along doing their average production.

The one truth is that in the end, players tend to revert to the mean for their career if you give 'em enough games.

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03-18-2011, 01:05 PM
  #255
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Originally Posted by DUHockey9 View Post
I'm not particularly a fan of "clutch" arguments. Briere is one of the like 10 people on earth that are genuinely clutch.
Even with Briere, when you look at his past is he really "clutch"?

Post lockout, Briere has:

Regular season (including this season):
362 points in 379 games = 0.96 points per game

Playoffs:
84 points in 80 games = 1.05 points per game

So only a 7-8 point different pace over 82 games, nothing earth-shattering.

The reason I only looked at post-lockout was that pre-lockout Briere only played in 6 playoff games (scoring 3 points). And his point per game in the regular season prior to the lockout was .63, so his pace of .5 in the playoffs was lower. Just didn't think it would be accurate to look at his scoring pace over his career as pre-lockout makes up 48% of his regular season games played whereas pre-lockout playoff games only make up 7% of playoff games he has played.

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03-18-2011, 01:13 PM
  #256
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Originally Posted by EasyMac View Post
Even with Briere, when you look at his past is he really "clutch"?

Post lockout, Briere has:

Regular season (including this season):
362 points in 379 games = 0.96 points per game

Playoffs:
84 points in 80 games = 1.05 points per game

So only a 7-8 point different pace over 82 games, nothing earth-shattering.

The reason I only looked at post-lockout was that pre-lockout Briere only played in 6 playoff games (scoring 3 points). And his point per game in the regular season prior to the lockout was .63, so his pace of .5 in the playoffs was lower. Just didn't think it would be accurate to look at his scoring pace over his career as pre-lockout makes up 48% of his regular season games played whereas pre-lockout playoff games only make up 7% of playoff games he has played.
His PPG goes up in the playoffs...I'd say that's the mark of someone who's better under pressure.

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03-18-2011, 01:17 PM
  #257
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Originally Posted by infidelappel View Post
His PPG goes up in the playoffs...I'd say that's the mark of someone who's better under pressure.
He played 6 playoff games prior to the age of 28... I'd wager a healthy bit of cash that if he'd been getting into playoff games back then, his numbers would look a bit different.

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03-18-2011, 01:20 PM
  #258
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Which is fine, but you've also used that to question his "clutch" factor and all that other garbage. It would be great if players got into "big game" situations and just puttered along with big performance after big performance, but that's not the way it works. Derek Jeter was a MONSTER when he first got to the playoffs, and has been rather pedestrian since... other guys struggle and get branded "chokers" and all that stuff. Some guys just putter along doing their average production.

The one truth is that in the end, players tend to revert to the mean for their career if you give 'em enough games.
Not always. There are guys who don't do as well in the playoffs because it becomes harder to score.

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03-18-2011, 01:24 PM
  #259
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Originally Posted by infidelappel View Post
Not always. There are guys who don't do as well in the playoffs because it becomes harder to score.
Pretty much always as you extend samples... and even guys you assume were oh-so-clutch?

Claude Lemieux: 0.65 PPG for his career.

0.68 PPG in the postseason.

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03-18-2011, 01:34 PM
  #260
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Pretty much always as you extend samples... and even guys you assume were oh-so-clutch?

Claude Lemieux: 0.65 PPG for his career.

0.68 PPG in the postseason.
Joe Thornton: 1.0050 PPG for his career.

0.714 in the postseason.

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03-18-2011, 01:34 PM
  #261
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Originally Posted by EasyMac View Post
Even with Briere, when you look at his past is he really "clutch"?

Post lockout, Briere has:

Regular season (including this season):
362 points in 379 games = 0.96 points per game

Playoffs:
84 points in 80 games = 1.05 points per game

So only a 7-8 point different pace over 82 games, nothing earth-shattering.

The reason I only looked at post-lockout was that pre-lockout Briere only played in 6 playoff games (scoring 3 points). And his point per game in the regular season prior to the lockout was .63, so his pace of .5 in the playoffs was lower. Just didn't think it would be accurate to look at his scoring pace over his career as pre-lockout makes up 48% of his regular season games played whereas pre-lockout playoff games only make up 7% of playoff games he has played.
E= MC2

I don't know about all this onion peeling..just know that last year he was clutch and throughout most of his recent career when he wasn't injured (works for Carter it seems) he has been pretty damn productive...

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03-18-2011, 01:43 PM
  #262
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Originally Posted by infidelappel View Post
Joe Thornton: 1.0050 PPG for his career.

0.714 in the postseason.
47 points in his last 56 playoff games.

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03-18-2011, 02:26 PM
  #263
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Originally Posted by EasyMac View Post
Even with Briere, when you look at his past is he really "clutch"?

Post lockout, Briere has:

Regular season (including this season):
362 points in 379 games = 0.96 points per game

Playoffs:
84 points in 80 games = 1.05 points per game

So only a 7-8 point different pace over 82 games, nothing earth-shattering.

The reason I only looked at post-lockout was that pre-lockout Briere only played in 6 playoff games (scoring 3 points). And his point per game in the regular season prior to the lockout was .63, so his pace of .5 in the playoffs was lower. Just didn't think it would be accurate to look at his scoring pace over his career as pre-lockout makes up 48% of his regular season games played whereas pre-lockout playoff games only make up 7% of playoff games he has played.
That's not necessarily all that's talked about when we call Briere clutch. How about timely goals?
Scored game-winners in games 4 and 5 to close out Devils
Scored game-winner in game 6 against Boston, game-tier in game 7
Involved in all 3 goals in game 6 loss to Chicago

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03-18-2011, 02:30 PM
  #264
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Originally Posted by flyersfan018 View Post
That's not necessarily all that's talked about when we call Briere clutch. How about timely goals?
Scored game-winners in games 4 and 5 to close out Devils
Scored game-winner in game 6 against Boston, game-tier in game 7
Involved in all 3 goals in game 6 loss to Chicago
GWG is the dumbest statistic in sports.

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03-18-2011, 02:40 PM
  #265
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
GWG is the dumbest statistic in sports.
Analogous to yards from scrimmage as the most worthless stat.

Does anyone know if there's a site that can filter GWG's to only one goal games?

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03-18-2011, 02:49 PM
  #266
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I don't know about all this onion peeling..just know that last year he was clutch and throughout most of his recent career when he wasn't injured (works for Carter it seems) he has been pretty damn productive...
I was just pointing out that he is both productive in the regular season and also in the postseason. He performs at roughly the same level throughout, with some years better then others (ie last years playoffs, 2006-07 regular season) but overall he roughly performs at the same level. If he was clutch last year as he produced at a higher rate in the playoffs then in the regular season, does that mean in 06-07 he was a dud in the playoffs (1.17 points/game in regular season, 0.94 points/game in the playoffs). No, it just means that individual seasons/playoff runs might look like a player is great/terrible during the playoffs, but overall players do tend to play at roughly the same level during both the regular season and playoffs.

Looking at Carter, to say he is a playoff dud isn't really true.

In 2007/08, he scored at the exact same pace (both goals and points) as he did in that regular season.
In 2008/09, he had a bad playoffs
In 2009/10, his point/game was lower then the season, his goals/game was the same.

Plus his pre-NHL history shows he has performed well in the playoffs/international competitions:
2006 - World Championships: 4 goals, 6 points in 9 games
2004/05 - 23 points in 21 games in AHL playoffs (on a team he joined for the playoff run)
2004/05 - 10 points in 7 games in the OHL
2003/04 - 5 points in 12 games (4 goals) with Phantoms as a 19 year old
2004 and 2005 World Juniors - 17 points (12 goals) in 12 games

The only bad playoffs he has had was: first year in the OHL (0 points in 4 games), first year with the Flyers (0 points in 6 games) and two years ago (1 point in 6 games).

Overall I would say Carter has shown he typically plays at the same level in the playoffs/international competitions as he does during the regular season.

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03-18-2011, 02:53 PM
  #267
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GWG is the dumbest statistic in sports.
Yep, scoring the 2nd goal in a 2-1 game is completely meaningless. How about something factual?

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03-18-2011, 03:13 PM
  #268
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Originally Posted by flyersfan018 View Post
That's not necessarily all that's talked about when we call Briere clutch. How about timely goals?
Scored game-winners in games 4 and 5 to close out Devils
Scored game-winner in game 6 against Boston, game-tier in game 7
Involved in all 3 goals in game 6 loss to Chicago
What about Carters 2 goals in game 4 against NJD to take a 3-1 lead (his last game he played when he broke his foot, including scoring a goal on the play that he broke his foot), or his two goals in the series clinching win against Montreal?

Did he have a bad series against Chicago? Of course, he got shut-down completely. So did the rest of his line (Richards - 2 points; Giroux - 4 points (including a 3 point game)).

I am not even a huge Carter fan, like most players there are flaws in his game I would like to see him improve on, but I don't think he deserves the label of playoff choker.

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03-18-2011, 03:16 PM
  #269
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Yep, scoring the 2nd goal in a 2-1 game is completely meaningless. How about something factual?
No more meaningful than the 1st goal.

What about the 3rd goal to make it 3-1 in a game that ends 3-2?

It's a dumb, completely random stat.


GWG last year in the playoffs:

1) against NJ, scored at the 17.27 mark of the 2nd period.
2) against NJ, scored at the 3.16 mark of the 1st period.
3) against BOS, scored at the 16.20 mark of the 2nd (to make it 2-0 in a 2-1 win).
4) against MON, scored at the 4.16 mark of the 1st period.

So, not a single 3rd period goal.


Last edited by Jester: 03-18-2011 at 03:27 PM.
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03-18-2011, 03:25 PM
  #270
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Yep, scoring the 2nd goal in a 2-1 game is completely meaningless. How about something factual?
GWG definitely has it's flaws. For your examples of game winners in the NJ series, is scoring the first goal in a 3-0 win on the powerplay early in the first period a sign of clutch? Or scoring mid-way through the second for the second goal in a 4-1 win a sign of clutch? Had NJ scored a late goal that wouldn't have changed the outcome but caused Briere to no longer have the game winner change his clutchness?

By all means Briere had a phenomenal playoff run, and I hope he can do the same again this year. And with any good playoff run, he scored a couple timely goals. But the same could be said for Carter with his big games in game 5 against NJ and the series winning win against Montreal.

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03-18-2011, 07:11 PM
  #271
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What about Carters 2 goals in game 4 against NJD to take a 3-1 lead (his last game he played when he broke his foot, including scoring a goal on the play that he broke his foot), or his two goals in the series clinching win against Montreal?

Did he have a bad series against Chicago? Of course, he got shut-down completely. So did the rest of his line (Richards - 2 points; Giroux - 4 points (including a 3 point game)).

I am not even a huge Carter fan, like most players there are flaws in his game I would like to see him improve on, but I don't think he deserves the label of playoff choker.
Oh, I'm certainly not disagreeing with you about Carter. I just think Briere comes up big for the Flyers when we need him most.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
No more meaningful than the 1st goal.

What about the 3rd goal to make it 3-1 in a game that ends 3-2?

It's a dumb, completely random stat.


GWG last year in the playoffs:

1) against NJ, scored at the 17.27 mark of the 2nd period.
2) against NJ, scored at the 3.16 mark of the 1st period.
3) against BOS, scored at the 16.20 mark of the 2nd (to make it 2-0 in a 2-1 win).
4) against MON, scored at the 4.16 mark of the 1st period.

So, not a single 3rd period goal.
What does it matter what period it was? A game-winner is a game-winner. The top 5 leaders in GWG are Jagr, Hull, Shanahan, Selanne and Lafleur. You just don't make that list by luck. I'm not just talking about post season either. Take last night for example.

BTW, the year the Sabres beat the Flyers in the playoffs, Briere had a game winner in double overtime against us and another one in the first overtime against the Canes.

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03-18-2011, 07:38 PM
  #272
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The top 5 leaders in GWG are Jagr, Hull, Shanahan, Selanne and Lafleur. You just don't make that list by luck.
No, but if you look at the top 25 players for career GWG, they are all in the top 47 of career goals (with 17 of them being in the top 24 in goal scoring). So it shows that if you score a lot, you get a lot of game winners. Which makes sense when the GWG can be from a goal in the 1st period giving your team a 3-0 lead in a game they end up winning 7-2. How is that 3rd goal more important then the first two goals?

GWG is is just a bad measure. A better measure would be to look at goals that tie the game or put the team one ahead in the later parts of the game, though I doubt there is anything that tracks that.

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03-18-2011, 10:03 PM
  #273
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Originally Posted by flyersfan018 View Post
What does it matter what period it was? A game-winner is a game-winner. The top 5 leaders in GWG are Jagr, Hull, Shanahan, Selanne and Lafleur. You just don't make that list by luck. I'm not just talking about post season either. Take last night for example.

BTW, the year the Sabres beat the Flyers in the playoffs, Briere had a game winner in double overtime against us and another one in the first overtime against the Canes.
The holes in your argument concerning the importance of the GWG statistic are the size of a barn. It is the dumbest statistic in the sport.

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03-19-2011, 03:49 AM
  #274
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While Carter is pulling a Nodl come playoff time, watch Nodl pull a total Umberger. It'll be great.

But seriously, Carter will be fine. I am giving him the benefit of the broken feet last year. Even then, he did have like 5 goals last postseason, was it? That ain't bad. Maybe not great like we might expect from him, but not horrible.

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03-19-2011, 11:07 AM
  #275
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
He played 6 playoff games prior to the age of 28... I'd wager a healthy bit of cash that if he'd been getting into playoff games back then, his numbers would look a bit different.
Given the fact that you argue that offensive production is a young man's game (all the time), the implication that you think Briere's play-off stats would move in a direction other than to further support appel's point seems at least a little dishonest.

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