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Giroux - prime of his career

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Old
03-24-2011, 10:39 AM
  #51
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Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
No I'm not. I am giving examples of guys whose prime years were extended into 29, 30 and later. Patrick Sharp, Brad Richards, Sedin(s) are guys at or near 30 that are still in their prime. That is my only point. And I know, I just gave 4 names.....but if you look at my previous points, you will see plenty of examples in the Carter thread of what I am talking about.
Jeff Carter is going to be 36 at the end of his contract, I will be interested to see how his production stands at that time against Giroux.

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03-24-2011, 10:48 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Cartsiephan View Post
Jeff Carter is going to be 36 at the end of his contract, I will be interested to see how his production stands at that time against Giroux.
That is exactly why I am interested in this topic.

- I think 10 years for Richards is a great deal. He is a heart and soul guy, greatest assets are defense and leadership - he should easily earn his salary in all 10 years barring injury.
- 11 years for Carter I think is tricky. Based on my earlier statements, I believe Carter will continue to produce at or near 40 goals for the first 5 years of his deal. The remaining 6 years, he will be on the backend of his career. The good news is, he is a great two way player who should be able to transition into the older defense first player in his thirtys. So, not a bad deal
- Giroux I was of the opinion - give him 10 years when he is up. But, this topic is interesting and I am interested to hear others opinions. If at the end of this deal he is 27 and based on what many are saying, his best years are behind him......then I wouldn't give Giroux more than 5 years on his next deal. I don't think Giroux fits the Carter/Richards mode for a 10 year deal....

It is three years out, just "to me", this is an interesting discussion topic. Moreso than who sucks on the team. But, I may be alone on the interest in this topic.

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03-24-2011, 10:54 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
Take a look at http://www.quanthockey.com/. IT has all players born in all years, all time sorted by career points, best years, etc. I did not exclude anyone retired from the list. I just took the top names of all players born that year, if players retired they are still on the list. Take a look - it is a very good site for hockey statistics.
His point isn't in whether you included them, but whether you accounted for the length of their careers. Do some searching around that site and you'll see the length of the prime you're suggesting nearly doubles the average length of a career.

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03-24-2011, 11:24 AM
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I remember looking at these type of stats in the past. A player's prime is 23-25. From age's 26 to 30 a player's PPG efficency drop an average of 5% year to year. From 30-35 it drops around 10% year to year and at age 35 and beyond it was 15%.

Of course nowadays, there is more attention paid to fitness and nutrition, so the dropoff might not be as dramatic. But the numbers still can be used as a guideline.

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03-24-2011, 11:28 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
I think you are misunderstanding, I am saying that a players prime is from 24-30. Conventional wisdom has it at 27-32, I agree this is wrong. I believe the likelihood of a players best years being between 24-27 is likely, but 28-30 should also be prime years. Again, I am only looking at current day NHL, post lockout.
30 is not a prime year though. It's hit or miss. Prime years are year that when you look back at a players career you can almost guarantee that will be the players best few years. If the average player is better from 25-27 than they are from 28-30 then that is not their prime.


Last edited by CanadianFlyer88: 03-24-2011 at 12:45 PM. Reason: No...
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Old
03-24-2011, 11:34 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
That is exactly why I am interested in this topic.

- I think 10 years for Richards is a great deal. He is a heart and soul guy, greatest assets are defense and leadership - he should easily earn his salary in all 10 years barring injury.
- 11 years for Carter I think is tricky. Based on my earlier statements, I believe Carter will continue to produce at or near 40 goals for the first 5 years of his deal. The remaining 6 years, he will be on the backend of his career. The good news is, he is a great two way player who should be able to transition into the older defense first player in his thirtys. So, not a bad deal
- Giroux I was of the opinion - give him 10 years when he is up. But, this topic is interesting and I am interested to hear others opinions. If at the end of this deal he is 27 and based on what many are saying, his best years are behind him......then I wouldn't give Giroux more than 5 years on his next deal. I don't think Giroux fits the Carter/Richards mode for a 10 year deal....

It is three years out, just "to me", this is an interesting discussion topic. Moreso than who sucks on the team. But, I may be alone on the interest in this topic.
Richards is my biggest concern of the bunch. He is a good player but he needs to be physical to be successful, I really wonder whether his shoulders are going to sustain the punishment.

Carter could have a good career, I just do not think he is going to really exceed what he has put up this year. He is going to be a 30-35 goals, 30 assist player who can score and plays some good defense at center but on the wing lacks physical game to compete.

Giroux has the ability to last the longest and sustain a career IMO. He not only makes other players better but he also has the most all-around game. I think Giroux could go on to sustain the ability to score more over the next couple years, but always have the knack for being able to create space with his passing. Giroux has a much higher upside over Carter or Richards IMHO.

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