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Stat Nerd Sunday: Which NHL teams are sloppy with second chances?

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Old
03-27-2011, 06:33 PM
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M0NTY26
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Stat Nerd Sunday: Which NHL teams are sloppy with second chances?

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puc...aining-content


Very interesting stuff here. I always knew Flower wasn't the best at rebound controls, but to see he's actually one of the worst when it comes to allowing goals off the rebound is surprising.

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03-27-2011, 06:36 PM
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UnderratedBrooks44
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Thomas is right up there with Fleury, which tells you how pointless the whole analysis and article is. Rebound goals often have a lot to do with the team in front of the goalie as well. Some stats just don't tell the whole story or are completely meaningless.

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03-27-2011, 06:41 PM
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M0NTY26
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Originally Posted by UnderratedBrooks44 View Post
Thomas is right up there with Fleury, which tells you how pointless the whole analysis and article is. Rebound goals often have a lot to do with the team in front of the goalie as well. Some stats just don't tell the whole story or are completely meaningless.
Which is why I was even more shocked to see this stat since we have one of the best defensive squads in the league.

I definitely agree with you though about some stats don't tell the whole story or are completely meaningless, but the way you see so many goals in the playoffs is usually be a rebound.

It just caught me off guard, as well as seeing Lou high on that list, as well. It didn't really shock me to see Thomas high on that list though, but that's just because of his unorthodox style of play.

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03-27-2011, 07:02 PM
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UnderratedBrooks44
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Originally Posted by M0NTY26 View Post
Which is why I was even more shocked to see this stat since we have one of the best defensive squads in the league.

I definitely agree with you though about some stats don't tell the whole story or are completely meaningless, but the way you see so many goals in the playoffs is usually be a rebound.

It just caught me off guard, as well as seeing Lou high on that list, as well. It didn't really shock me to see Thomas high on that list though, but that's just because of his unorthodox style of play.
Yeah I just think every play can be so different from another that it's not really a stat I put too much stock into now that I've seen it. It kind of implies a rebound equals the goalie kicking the puck wildly into open space and a lot of rebounds goals aren't really like that.

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03-27-2011, 07:17 PM
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M0NTY26
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I don't know why I didn't think of this when I posted/read this article, but you could actually flip this information in favor of the goalies with this highest percentage of goals allowed off the rebound.

Granted, you'd need more stats to make what I'm about to say more concrete, but that would require the highest level nerdist alive to document.

But, you could say that a higher percentage of shots are hitting goalies like Fleury, Thomas, Luongo, Howard, and Bryzgalov, while a higher percentage of shots are cleanly beating goalies like Neuvirth, Quick and Roloson.

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03-27-2011, 07:19 PM
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UnderratedBrooks44
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Originally Posted by M0NTY26 View Post
I don't know why I didn't think of this when I posted/read this article, but you could actually flip this information in favor of the goalies with this highest percentage of goals allowed off the rebound.

Granted, you'd need more stats to make what I'm about to say more concrete, but that would require the highest level nerdist alive to document.

But, you could say that a higher percentage of shots are hitting goalies like Fleury, Thomas, Luongo, Howard, and Bryzgalov, while a higher percentage of shots are cleanly beating goalies like Neuvirth, Quick and Roloson.
Ha, good point. All the more reason to think it's probably a stat that only muddies the waters.

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03-27-2011, 10:04 PM
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The way the article is written, it's like he's trying to say that it's better to be beat on the first shot rather than the rebound, which should be self-evidently false, since defensemen can't help you if you get beaten on the first shot.

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03-27-2011, 10:17 PM
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Thought this was gonna be about Phaneuf.

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03-27-2011, 10:25 PM
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Thought this was gonna be about Phaneuf.

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03-27-2011, 11:13 PM
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The Merovingian
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But it's all about the fraction of goals allowed...which I think is a skewed stat. 1 out of 4 goals against Flower are rebounds, but he doesn't have a lot of goals against period. And that sample size of games doesn't really make me feel like it's statistically signifcant enough to jump to any conclusions, or jump off a bridge for that matter, about Fleury...

I think his recent games show me all that I need to know.

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03-27-2011, 11:44 PM
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Quote:
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Thought this was gonna be about Phaneuf.
Well played, sir.

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03-28-2011, 06:54 AM
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Um, isn't it better if you're more often beaten on rebounds rather than on the first shot? This list just confirms for me that Fleury is one of the elite goaltenders in the league.

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03-28-2011, 08:12 AM
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Um, isn't it better if you're more often beaten on rebounds rather than on the first shot? This list just confirms for me that Fleury is one of the elite goaltenders in the league.
Agreed. Plus to me it also says that our defense aren't giving up great first chance opportunities and so teams have to adjust their strategy against a team like the pens. It doesn't see like a coincidence to me that 3 teams with great defensive depth (pens, bruins, canucks) all have similar stats in terms of rebound goals against. You can't penetrate those teams and get great first chance opportunities so teams have to resort to crashing and banging against us. Clearly Fleury has been great but his higher sv% this year is also a product of lower quality first time shots because our d are strong on the rush. And because of that, rebound goals are the most likely against teams like us.

I think the analysis was interesting but to suggest it tells us anything significant about goalie performance is grasping at straws IMO.

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Old
03-28-2011, 10:32 AM
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Darth Vitale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M0NTY26 View Post
http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puc...aining-content


Very interesting stuff here. I always knew Flower wasn't the best at rebound controls, but to see he's actually one of the worst when it comes to allowing goals off the rebound is surprising.
I'm sure it's already on the bulletin board. Onus on the skaters to get the puck away from the net, but it is surprising, considering how good our D has been. I don't have time to look but if we allow both a larger number of second chances and allow more of them into the back of the net, that's a problem.. vs. if we have relatively few second chances, but allow a larger percentage of them into the back of the net (IOW the total number could still be low).

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03-28-2011, 12:00 PM
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M0NTY26
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Well, it's also going to be a skewed stat when it's such a small sample size. You look at Neuvirth and since the ASB, the Caps have been relatively hot. If you looked at his numbers when the cap were on their huge losing streak, I'm sure his numbers wouldn't be so low.

The more I digest this article, the more ridiculous it becomes.

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03-28-2011, 03:01 PM
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The main problem with the article is its premise -- "I'm a SV% skeptic so I'm going to try to dissect an even more flawed statistic, GAA".

btw, the guy had a column with another goalie (equally flawed?) metric about 2 months ago that told a completely different story, with Thomas best in the league and Fleury 3rd --

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puc...urn=nhl-311270

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03-28-2011, 03:19 PM
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They're doing it wrong. Really wrong.
They would need to look at all the shots that led to a rebound, and count the number of those rebounds that the other team scored on.
Having a good ratio of 2nd chance goals/1st chance goal means that you're a great goaltender, not that you're sloppy on second chances.

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Old
03-28-2011, 03:32 PM
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Trying to get in a little Sean Avery reference with the title, are we?

Good for you.

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